JD Bets advises avoiding Luis Severino's strikeout prop (over 4.5 Ks) against San Diego despite Severino hitting the number previously. He emphasized that Padres hitters are historically disciplined and among the league's toughest to strike out, comparable to Cleveland's lineup. JD described the prop as a stressful and risky bet where even if it does hit, it will likely be a sweat, reinforcing that there is no easy strikeout total versus San Diego.

JD Bets was initially ready to bet on the Padres against the Athletics but backed off after seeing Luis Severino's surprising dominance against San Diego's lineup historically. Severino has held significant Padres hitters like Juan Soto, Manny Machado, and Fernando Tatis Jr. to an abysmal combined record of just 1 hit in 14 career at-bats. JD referenced Severino's impressive recent performances as well, ultimately deciding to pass on betting San Diego due to this alarming batter-pitcher history.

Guy Boston thinks Luis Severino's previous strong season-opening start against Seattle may give a false positive on his overall ability, calling him somewhat overrated. After an impressive outing to start the season, he struggled greatly against a quality Cubs lineup. Today versus San Diego, a similarly potent offense, Boston anticipates Severino reverting to his poorer form. Even though he praised Severino for his initial performance, he expressed skepticism that this success will be sustainable against the deep and talented Padres lineup, ultimately endorsing the Padres moneyline due in part to Severino being overvalued.

Chris Ruffolo voiced concerns regarding Luis Severino’s chances of success against San Diego, pointing to his previous start allowing six earned runs and two home runs over six innings against the Cubs. Across the diamond, San Diego has been dangerous against right-handed pitching this season, hitting .307 and ranking in the top 10 in OPS. Ruffolo sees the Padres' potent lineup getting to Severino early and often, potentially creating further vulnerability against Oakland's bullpen, which currently sports a 5.73 ERA—one of MLB's worst.

Malcolm Bamford strongly advises betting on the Padres team total over against Oakland pitcher Luis Severino. He points to Severino's troublesome early home start in Sacramento, surrendering five earned runs, combined with the Athletics' general pitching woes at home—allowing large run totals like 18-3 and 10-2 in recent defeats to the Cubs. Additionally, the Padres are starting to heat up offensively, pounding out nine runs on 14 hits in their most recent game. Given Severino's shaky form and Oakland's struggling bullpen, Bamford confidently sees San Diego exploiting these pitching weaknesses and comfortably clearing their team total.

Sean Zerillo strongly recommended betting the under 5.5 strikeouts on Luis Severino, indicating that model projections have his expected number closer to 4.7-4.8 strikeouts for this matchup against Seattle. Zerillo referenced past strikeout difficulties the Mariners faced early last year, but noted cautious optimism in their plate discipline improving. Given pitch count limitations typical on opening day, it's unlikely Severino will exceed projected Ks. Severino's prop line being plus money at 5.5 provided further incentive, and Zerillo stated he'd take under 5 strikeouts at even odds, believing books have inflated his total here.

ESPN Fantasy sees Luis Severino as a favorable streaming option thanks to his matchup and venue. Severino takes the mound at T-Mobile Park, known as one of MLB's most pitcher-friendly stadiums, comparable in extremity for pitchers as Coors Field is for hitters. Additionally, he will face a Mariners offense that ESPN Fantasy described as not particularly formidable, providing Severino a solid opportunity for good fantasy stats.