Razzle likes Matthew Boyd as a mid-range SP2 thanks to Wrigley Field conditions. The forecast calls for cool temperatures and wind blowing in, and sportsbooks have reacted by posting a 7.5 game total with juice on the under despite a mediocre Boyd-Rout matchup. Boyd’s strike-out prop is 5.5 (tied for second-highest on the slate) and juiced to the over, and the Cubs are –155 favorites, giving Boyd a +140 win prop—the best posted before Cole Ragans’ line drops. With initial ownership piling up, Razzle plans to keep Boyd in his pool, banking on the weather, park and K prop to provide a solid floor and ceiling.

Todd Zola said Matthew Boyd is still worth a one-day stream in season-long leagues even though the veteran’s tidy 2.70 ERA is propped up by luck (1.44 WHIP, 4.40 xFIP, 4.29 SIERA and a .330 BABIP). Zola noted that regression should come eventually, but it is unlikely to bite hard Monday because Boyd gets a home start against a Giants lineup that owns one of MLB’s worst wOBAs versus left-handed pitching. With Wrigley’s forecast suppressing offense and Chicago installed as –150 favorites, Zola expects five-plus innings and a chance at a win, making Boyd usable in 10-team formats.

Kenny G leaned toward laying –143 with the Cubs because Matthew Boyd has quietly posted a 2.70 ERA despite drawing brutal assignments against the Dodgers and Pirates. Boyd has held opponents to two or fewer earned in four straight outings and now gets a Giants club whose on-base percentage ranks 22nd and whose run production is starting to fade (9, 6, 4 in its last three). On the other side, rookie Landen Rupe carries a 5.10 ERA and has yielded 11 earned across his last 8⅓ innings. San Francisco will eventually hand things to a stellar 2.50-ERA bullpen, but Kenny expects Chicago’s league-leading offense (first in runs and batting average, six-plus runs in two of its last three) to build an early cushion. Even with the Cubs’ own 4.48 bullpen issues, he projects them as –150 favorites and sees current –143 pricing as a buy point.

Kenny G labeled Chicago –175 as a potential “lock” and said the line should sit closer to –250. Matthew Boyd (2-2, 2.54 ERA) finally draws a soft opponent after facing the Dodgers twice and Padres twice in his first five starts. Pittsburgh counters with Carmen Mlodzinski and his ugly 6.95 ERA, plus a bullpen flirting with 4.00. Offensively it’s a mismatch: the Cubs are first in runs, third in average (.260) and second in OBP (.340), fresh off a 9-0 rout, while the Pirates are 28th in slugging and 26th in average with run totals of 0,2,4,3,3. Chicago also boasts MLB’s best road record (9-5) and a bullpen Kenny says is finally trending up from its 4.81 ERA. Factor in potential weather favoring pitchers and he still sees the Pirates incapable of keeping pace, making the Cubs a premium moneyline play.

Stephen from Just A Bet Outside backed Matthew Boyd to eclipse 16.5 outs at -125. Boyd has survived a brutal opening schedule—two starts each against the Dodgers and Padres plus one versus Arizona—yet still cleared this number in three of five outings while logging a 2.54 ERA and a 3.65 xERA. His pitch count (98-97-92 the last three) shows he is fully stretched. Pittsburgh ranks 21st in OBP and 20th in wRC+ vs lefties over the last three weeks, owns the sixth-lowest walk rate, and has produced just six total walks in seven games started by southpaws. Five of the seven left-handed starters who have faced the Pirates have gone at least 17 outs, and the two unders still reached five full innings, giving Boyd a high floor. Stephen expects the veteran to cruise through six frames in a far easier matchup than any he has seen so far.

Guy Boston identifies the Cubs as an intriguing upset candidate against the Dodgers, emphasizing Matthew Boyd's strengths against right-handed batters. The entire Dodgers lineup except for Shohei Ohtani bats right-handed, which plays into Boyd's historically strong splits (.184 batting average and .240 wOBA allowed against Dodgers roster). Despite recognizing the significant threat posed by Ohtani, Boston suggests backing Matthew Boyd player prop markets like under earned runs or potentially Cubs run line (+1.5). The plus-money Cubs bet appeals due to matchup specifics and Dodgers repeatedly struggling versus left-handed pitchers this season, providing an appealing upset pick or player prop angle.

Dylan Rockford likes Matthew Boyd under 2.5 earned runs against a Dodgers lineup struggling mightily against left-handed pitching this season. Rockford cites Boyd's consistency, having allowed fewer than three earned runs in 10 of his last 11 starts dating back to last year, including every start this year. He points specifically to Boyd's past success against this current Dodgers lineup in a 2024 start. The Dodgers' troubling metrics versus left-handed pitchers were noted, as they rank bottom-10 across several critical batting metrics, including WRC+, K-rate, and OPS. Furthermore, Rockford suggests adding a sprinkle on Boyd to record the win at +290, as he expects him to pitch around five innings and sees a clear path for Boyd and the Cubs to capitalize on the Dodgers continued woes against southpaws.

JD Bets sees significant value in Matthew Boyd's strikeout prop of over 4.5 Ks against the Los Angeles Dodgers. He supports his recommendation noting Boyd's strong historical success, including a game last September where he struck out six Dodgers batters. Additionally, Boyd has cleared this prop consistently in nearly all recent starts. JD also mentions the Dodgers' high strikeout rate, ranking 20th in the league, striking out 9.1 times per game overall and 7.8 at home. Given Boyd's track record, favorable head-to-head history, and the Dodgers' strikeout tendencies, JD strongly endorses taking this prop.

Scott Reichel recommended betting the Dodgers first five innings (-0.5 runs), expressing skepticism about Matthew Boyd's pitching despite his superficially clean scoreline so far. Reichel specifically noted Boyd consistently allowing multiple base runners per inning—five hits and a walk versus the Padres, four hits, and three walks versus Arizona—highlighting significant vulnerability when facing an elite Dodgers offense. While acknowledging Cubs familiarity with Dodgers pitcher Yamamoto could support Chicago's offense slightly, Reichel emphasized Dodgers' elite lineup's likelihood to punish Boyd early, creating excellent early-game betting value for Los Angeles.

Kenny G finds appeal in Cubs pitcher Matthew Boyd at plus 165, citing Boyd's stellar start to the season (11 innings pitched, no runs allowed against quality opponents like Arizona and San Diego). He acknowledges Boyd's ERA of zero involves some luck, but emphasizes his veteran poise and effective pitching. Kenny considers Dodgers pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto a top talent (1.69 ERA through three starts), but questions whether the Dodgers truly justify being two-to-one favorites. He recognizes weakness in the Cubs bullpen (near 5.00 ERA), suggesting an alternative first-five innings wager on Chicago may be the smarter approach to mitigate bullpen risk.

Scott Reichel advised caution backing Matthew Boyd despite his seemingly positive first outing (5 innings, no runs). Boyd actually allowed seven baserunners through four hits and three walks, narrowly escaping damage. Given this vulnerability and artificially inflated box-score performance, Reichel preferred taking San Diego at plus money. He acknowledged concerns about Padres pitcher Nick Pivetta, historically shaky but dominant in his first start, indicating this game felt closer to a coin flip. Ultimately, Boyd's deceptive surface stats steered Reichel towards San Diego with better value odds.

Guy Boston recommended betting Matthew Boyd to allow over 4.5 hits against Arizona, highlighting Boyd's vulnerability to elite left-handed hitting lineups like the Diamondbacks. Boston pointed to Arizona's dominant 2024 metrics versus left-handed pitchers—ranking top two across WRC+, OPS, slugging, batting average, and BABIP. Arizona hitters consistently excel against Boyd's primary pitches—the fastball, sinker, and changeup—with only Boyd's infrequently thrown slider presenting small risk. Given the positive odds (plus money) and Boyd's likelihood of pitching 5 innings, Boston sees significant value on Boyd surpassing 4.5 hits allowed and expects Arizona's offense to thrive accordingly.