JD Bets targeted Max Fried’s hits-allowed prop, taking under 5.5 against Colorado. Fried has not surrendered six hits in any of his last five starts, giving up just 3.6 on average during that stretch. Colorado ranks 20th in hits per game and owns a modest .229 batting average versus left-handers this year. JD emphasized Fried’s 56% ground-ball rate and consistent six-plus-inning workload, noting that even deep outings rarely translate into big hit totals because batters struggle to square him up. With the Rockies’ offense scuffling and books hanging a full 5.5, JD expects Fried to allow four or fewer knocks and cruise under the posted line.

Mark encouraged grabbing Max Fried in the Cy Young market now before the odds shorten further. Fried owns a pristine 6-0 record with a 1.29 ERA, sits top-five in both FIP and batting-average-against, and benefits from New York’s massive media footprint that historically sways voters. Mark noted that advanced metrics back the surface stats—Fried’s 28% K-rate and 4.8% walk-rate point to sustainable dominance—and believes his narrative of "ace who revived the Yankees’ rotation" will resonate with award voters. Any number longer than 4-1 is still "a very nice, viable option" in Mark’s eyes.

Mark bet Max Fried under 1.5 earned runs at +133 despite the Coors Field backdrop. Fried is 6-0 with a 1.29 ERA and has cashed this prop in 7 of his last 10 starts (70%). Colorado ranks bottom-three in wRC+ versus left-handers, and their current lineup owns just a .279 OBP at home. Mark acknowledged the park’s run-inflating nature but trusts Fried’s elite command and the Yankees’ improved defense to keep damage minimal. He views the plus-money price as the best angle to back Fried’s dominance.

Dan Marcus said Max Fried is under-priced at $8,300 despite pitching in Coors Field. He argued the great offensive environment is offset by a Rockies lineup that has been "sub-par even in Denver." Fried owns a 23.9% strikeout rate, a tidy 3.39 SIERA and is one of the only arms on the slate with both punch-out upside and run prevention skills. With Saturday’s pitcher pool thin, Marcus views Fried as a strong SP1 who lets DFS players spend up for bats without sacrificing ceiling.

Mark Zinno wants to fade Max Fried’s perfect 8-0 team record by backing the Mariners on Tuesday. He and Bryan Power both noted that oddsmakers opened Fried only –140 despite New York’s flawless results behind him, a price Zinno called “the world’s ultimate sucker bet.” The Yankees just hammered Oakland in a hitter-friendly Bronx park, then flew cross-country for a day off before entering spacious T-Mobile Park, a venue that "holds the ball really well." Zinno tagged the Yankees as a classic feast-or-famine lineup and believes famine shows up against Bryan Woo, whose career splits are far better in Seattle. He also pointed out that one of Fried or fellow unbeaten Robbie Ray is likely to take his first loss Tuesday, and the matchup plus travel spot screams Fried. For risk-averse bettors, he suggested hunting an alternate Mariners +1 line to avoid laying the full moneyline juice while still capturing the fade of New York’s ace.

Lonte Smith agreed on the pitchers’ duel but pushed it a step further, taking the Yankees moneyline and predicting a 3-2 final. He praised Fried’s ability to work deep—seven innings in three straight—and pointed out that New York’s lineup consistently gives the left-hander run support. As for Bryan Woo, Smith called him ‘feast or famine’: six-plus hits in three of five starts yet six-plus strikeouts in four of five. Smith thinks the Yanks’ patient bats will turn those base-hits into a pair of crooked numbers, enough for Fried and the bullpen to make it hold. His bottom line: ride the superior offense in a tight, low-scoring affair.

In the main-slate showcase, Razzle leans Max Fried over Dylan Cease. Fried is +115 for the win with an 8-run total (juice to the under) and a 5.5 K prop (juice to the under) against a Padres lineup that doesn’t strike out but is less imposing now that Jackson Merrill has cooled. Fried has been “phenomenal,” and his elite ground-ball rate should mitigate Petco’s park factor. Razzle notes it’s still a volatile spot but prefers Fried’s control and efficiency compared to Cease’s walk risk versus a suddenly patient Yankees offense.

Welsh recommended betting Max Fried to record at least six strikeouts at –120. He acknowledged Tampa Bay’s K rate has fluctuated, but cited the Rays’ current 24.5% mark against lefties and Fried’s recent surge—22 strikeouts over his last 18 innings—as reasons to expect a “big, big performance.” Fried’s curveball/slider combo has generated a 35% whiff rate in May, and the Rays are bottom-10 versus breaking balls. With Atlanta willing to let Fried work deep (101-pitch average his last three starts), Welsh feels six punch-outs is the floor and seven to nine is realistic value for same-game-parlay builders.

Razzle said Max Fried is a core DFS arm tonight. The Yankees are –258 favorites and Fried is +115 to record the win, the 4th-best mark on the slate. His strikeout prop sits at 5.5 (essentially even money), which Razzle flagged as a threshold he always wants. Tampa Bay owns a 122 team ISO on the road with only six homers in nine away games, and just two active hitters over a .167 ISO versus lefties—one of whom (Brandon Lowe) may not start. Razzle noted the Rays’ numbers crater outside The Trop and that he has successfully attacked them with southpaws all year. Warm weather and a neutral wind in Yankee Stadium do not scare him off. He expects Fried to work deep enough for the quality start and sees 6-8 K upside at a moderate salary.

PrizePicks hung Max Fried at 30.5 pitching fantasy points, 1.4 higher than Underdog and sportsbook consensus. Polzin prefers the UNDER, pointing out that Fried managed just 29 fantasy points in his last start versus Tampa despite solid ratios. The Rays remain top-10 in walk rate and fouls per swing, traits that routinely cap Fried’s strikeout ceiling. With only a 52% projection to go over, Polzin views this as another small but worthwhile fade, especially if paired with the Joe Ryan over in the same game environment.

Millz Young is on Max Fried over 4.5 strikeouts—willing to play 5.5 but prefers buying down to 4.5 on PrizePicks because the matchup with the Dodgers is tough. Fried has hit 6 Ks in three of his last five outings (60 percent success rate) and still owns a 26 percent strikeout rate when facing right-heavy lineups like L.A.’s.

Guy Boston recommended Max Fried under 2.5 earned runs at –160. Fried has opened 2025 with six straight unders, surrendering just 0.83 ER per start. He blanked the Rays over 7.2 innings on 4/20, and Tampa Bay is the second-worst offense against left-handed pitching this season, sitting bottom-six in every slash category. Boston highlighted Fried’s 81st-percentile batting-average allowed and 97th-percentile ERA metrics, noting that the Yankees signed him to stabilize the rotation while Cole heals. With the Rays still scuffling and Fried dealing, Boston views the stingy alternate line as ‘phenomenal value’.

Zarpentine recommended betting Max Fried to record the win at +125. New York is 6-0 when he takes the mound and Fried has personally notched the W in five straight. He blanked Tampa over 7.2 innings less than two weeks ago and has gone at least six frames without an earned run in three of his last four outings. Because Fried routinely works deep and shields a shaky Yankee bullpen, Zarpentine considers plus money on the win a clear buy.

Zarpentine recommended backing Max Fried to record the win at +125. New York is 6-0 when Fried takes the mound and the left-hander has personally cashed the W in five straight. He blanked the Tampa lineup over 7.2 innings in their last meeting and has tossed at least six scoreless frames in three of his past four outings. By consistently working deep he shields the Yankees’ shaky bullpen, giving New York extra paths to a decision. Zarpentine sees the plus-odds as too generous given Fried’s run-prevention streak and the club’s perfect record behind him.

B Wade backed Max Fried to stay under 2.5 earned runs at home against Tampa Bay. Fried has allowed just five earned runs through six starts, never yielding more than two in any outing, and is coming off back-to-back shutouts. He sports a 1.20 ERA, ~1.00 WHIP, and a 5-0 record. The Rays are slumping badly, scoring only three total runs while being swept by Kansas City earlier in the week. With Fried in dominant form and Tampa’s bats cold, Wade considers three earned runs against him highly improbable.

Romanelli continues to ride Max Fried, noting the Yankees are 6-0 when he starts and the lefty sports a 1.19 ERA with only one homer allowed. The Rays’ offense ranks just 23rd in wRC+ over the last two weeks and has struggled in pitcher-friendly parks, making Fried a strong bet to keep rolling while Gerrit Cole remains shelved. Ryan Pepiot, meanwhile, has already surrendered eight long balls and carries a fly-ball profile ill-suited for Yankee Stadium’s short porch. Romanelli expects New York’s right-handed power—third in HR rate versus RHP—to take advantage, so he’s laying both money line and run line with the Yankees.

Martin recommended laying the short home price with Max Fried and the Yankees because the matchup lines up perfectly. Fried has delivered zero earned runs in three of his last four outings and is living up to his $200-million contract. Tampa Bay’s offense is a split-dependent unit that ranks top-5 in wRC+ versus right-handers but bottom-10 against lefties, making Fried a particularly bad draw. On the other side, Ryan Pepiot’s hot start has cooled—he is now allowing more hits than innings pitched and gave up two homers to these same Yankees less than two weeks ago. With the handiness edge, current form, and Yankee Stadium’s friendly confines for New York’s power bats, Martin is backing the Bronx Bombers to win.

Kenny G said the best angle for Game 2 in the Bronx is the under 8.5 runs. He pointed to Max Fried’s sizzling 1.42 ERA, 7-inning shut-out effort at Tampa his last time out, and the fact that New York is 5-0 in his starts while allowing only five total earned runs. On the other side, Kevin Gausman has four quality outings in five tries and draws a Yankees lineup that has scored 2, 5, 2, 4 and 4 runs in its last five games. Both bullpens grade out well (Yankees 3.34 ERA, Jays 3.59) and Toronto’s offense remains 25th in runs and 27th in slugging. With two ace-level starters, cooling bats and solid relief work on deck, Kenny labeled the under his preferred wager instead of laying a steep –180 with New York.

Dan Marcus said Max Fried is the most trustworthy spend-up pitcher at $9,500. While Fried’s 22.4% strikeout rate is modest compared to other upper-tier arms, he has been extremely efficient, averaging 6.2 IP per start and racking up quality starts in four of five outings. The matchup sweetens the pot: Toronto ranks 23rd in wOBA against lefties and is striking out 24.9% of the time in that split. Marcus likes Fried’s ability to work deep, pile up ground-balls (55% GB rate) and secure the win as a –150 home favorite, making him a high-floor DFS anchor even without gaudy K upside.

Adam Burke recommends betting Max Fried to Record a Win (+125) against the Royals. Fried's elite groundball rate (51.9%) and command (21 Ks to just three walks, 1.56 ERA, 2.22 FIP) match up ideally against Kansas City's aggressive lineup that rarely walks or strikes out. Additionally, Burke cited Royals starter Michael Wacha's vulnerability (4.20 ERA, shaky 11/8 K/BB in 15 IP) as another reason to fade Kansas City. He expects Fried to deliver a dominant start given his pitching profile and the Yankees' bullpen's solid performance, making this pitcher prop appealing at positive odds.

With ace Max Fried starting (2-0, 1.56 ERA), Data Skrive's betting model advises confidently backing the Yankees against the Kansas City Royals, predicting a comfortable 6-4 Yankees victory. Royals pitcher Michael Wacha enters the matchup winless at 0-2 with a 4.20 ERA in early season starts. Given the Yankees' superior starter, better offensive firepower, and large moneyline odds (-210), the implied betting opportunity lies in backing the Yankees on the run line, expecting a multi-run victory.

Kingpin advocated taking Max Fried’s strikeout over (7.5) against the Royals, highlighting Kansas City's free swinging lineup and Fried's ability to dominate hitters with a mix of velocity and effective breaking pitches. Given the Yankees' decisive edge in this game and Fried’s elite form, Kingpin sees plenty of swing-and-miss potential, projecting Fried to comfortably achieve at least 8 strikeouts.

Kenny G strongly supports betting the Yankees, largely because of starter Max Fried's stellar performances this season. Fried boasts a 2-0 record and a 1.56 ERA, including impressive starts against teams like Pittsburgh. He also noted the Yankees' bullpen (3.50 ERA) is trending positively, and their lineup (second in runs scored, top-five in batting average and slugging) shows stability. In contrast, Kansas City's offense is struggling—25th in runs scored and 28th in slugging percentage. Despite the heavy juice at -190, Kenny suggests laying the Yankees' run line at -1.5 or taking them straight up without concern if comfortable with the price.

Cash Out Sports Picks sees strong value playing under the projected total in the Royals-Yankees game, citing both Max Fried's outstanding recent pitching (just one run over two dominant starts) and Kansas City's generally ineffective offense, averaging just 3.25 runs per contest. Additionally, recent head-to-head matchups between these teams have consistently been low-scoring, with three consecutive unders and margins regularly two runs or fewer. Expect another tight, low-scoring matchup with pitching dominance leading the way.

Cash Out Sports Picks strongly recommends backing the Yankees to cover the spread against the Royals. Max Fried has been outstanding across three victories to start the year, surrendering just one run in his last two starts combined, and dominating familiar division rivals. Conversely, Royals starter Michael Wacha hasn't excelled, allowing seven runs across his first three outings and two specifically against New York in a recent game. Kansas City's weak offensive output, averaging just over three runs per game and barely two runs per contest on the road, adds confidence in the Yankees comfortably winning and covering the spread.

Kenny G expressed concerns about Max Fried facing a stronger Tigers lineup, noting Fried's inconsistent start to the season. Although Fried boasts a respectable 2.61 ERA, Kenny pointed out his rough first outing against the Brewers (seven hits and six runs, although only two were earned), alongside a better yet still shaky outing facing the weaker Pirates team where he gave up six hits. Kenny emphasized the Tigers are significantly stronger offensively compared to Fried's previous opponents and believes Fried may struggle in this spot, making Detroit an attractive underdog bet at +122.

Data Skrive highlighted Max Fried's impressive performance with the Yankees. Fried is currently 1-0 with a 2.61 ERA this season and has a 2-0 ATS record, meaning he has successfully covered the spread in both starts. Additionally, the Yankees have won both games Fried started as a moneyline favorite. Considering these trends, Fried is set up well against the Tigers, making the Yankees (-1.5 at +116) an attractive bet to cover the runline.

Kingpin recommended betting Max Fried to exceed 6.5 strikeouts, emphasizing Fried's impressive debut as a Yankee where he struck out 7 batters in his first start. They noted the Tigers ranked among the highest strikeout teams in the league last year and continue to show swing-and-miss tendencies. Considering Detroit's lineup struggles and Fried's proven ability to generate swings and misses, the expectation is Fried will comfortably surpass the posted strikeout total and deliver strong fantasy and prop betting value.

Peter Dewey advised betting the under on Max Fried's strikeout prop set at 6.5 despite facing a Tigers lineup prone to striking out over nine times per game. He reasoned that Fried has managed just four and six strikeouts in each of his first two starts this season, covering only 10.1 innings. Although Fried surpassed the 90-pitch threshold in both of these outings, Dewey is skeptical that he will pitch deep enough into this game against Detroit to exceed the strikeout total of 6.5.

Mal Bamford endorsed backing the Yankees moneyline with Max Fried on the mound due to Fried's outstanding recent history pitching in Pittsburgh—14 innings without an earned run over two starts. He emphasized Fried’s solid road performances last season, confidence in Pittsburgh's underwhelming offense (19 runs in seven games against weak competition), and Keller’s average pitching. Given these factors at a reasonable price (-148), he strongly recommends betting on the Yankees to secure a win in this spot.

In his Brewers vs Yankees analysis, Sean Paul selected Max Fried to achieve at least five strikeouts as part of his parlay play. Paul noted Fried's electric stuff, despite not historically being recognized primarily as a strikeout pitcher. The Brewers lineup exhibited strikeout vulnerability in their opening game, with Jackson Chourio notably striking out in all five plate appearances. Given Fried's talent and Milwaukee's early-season K-prone tendencies, Paul believes this strikeout threshold is highly attainable.

Sean Paul feels confident in backing Max Fried during his first start with the New York Yankees against the Brewers. Fried signed an extensive 8-year, $218 million deal this offseason and has excelled at limiting hard contact—ranking in the 95th percentile in average exit velocity, 89th percentile in hard-hit rate, and 96th percentile in ground-ball rate. Although Fried occasionally struggles with command (walking 2.93 batters per nine innings last year), Paul believes the pitcher's ability to induce soft contact aligns perfectly with attacking Milwaukee's lineup, which performed poorly in their opener and whose key hitters—Jackson Chourio and Christian Yelich—appeared overmatched. These factors contributed to Paul's strong Yankees -1.5 run-line play.

NBC Sports Bet Staff strongly recommend betting on the New York Yankees moneyline and -1.5 run line on Saturday against the Brewers. Their model identifies value with the Yankees behind new starter Max Fried, who posted an 11-10 record with a 3.25 ERA over 174.1 innings in 2024. Fried faces Milwaukee starter Nestor Cortes, who was more pedestrian last season at 9-10 with a 3.77 ERA. Additionally, the article notes Milwaukee struggled offensively in the opener with just 7 hits and 13 strikeouts, suggesting their lineup could again struggle. The Yankees also won the opener 2-1 behind Carlos Rodon's strong start, indicating their staff is already performing well to begin the season. They also advised the over on the total of 8 runs, suggesting additional confidence in New York's ability to score on Milwaukee pitching.

Lonte Smith expressed skepticism towards Max Fried's chances for success in his Yankees debut against the Brewers. Despite Fried's decent statistics historically (2-1, 1.3 ERA) against Milwaukee, Lonte specifically highlighted that he hasn't pitched against them since 2022 and noted lingering concerns over Fried's effectiveness late last year, noting previous injury issues and underperformance relative to his perceived reputation as a Cy Young fringe candidate. With Nestor Cortes effectively pitching against his old Yankees teammates in what's effectively a home-field situation, Lonte sees value in fading Fried at inflated prices on Saturday, recommending betting on the Brewers as underdogs.