Mal Bamford endorsed backing the Yankees moneyline with Max Fried on the mound due to Fried's outstanding recent history pitching in Pittsburgh—14 innings without an earned run over two starts. He emphasized Fried’s solid road performances last season, confidence in Pittsburgh's underwhelming offense (19 runs in seven games against weak competition), and Keller’s average pitching. Given these factors at a reasonable price (-148), he strongly recommends betting on the Yankees to secure a win in this spot.

In his Brewers vs Yankees analysis, Sean Paul selected Max Fried to achieve at least five strikeouts as part of his parlay play. Paul noted Fried's electric stuff, despite not historically being recognized primarily as a strikeout pitcher. The Brewers lineup exhibited strikeout vulnerability in their opening game, with Jackson Chourio notably striking out in all five plate appearances. Given Fried's talent and Milwaukee's early-season K-prone tendencies, Paul believes this strikeout threshold is highly attainable.

Sean Paul feels confident in backing Max Fried during his first start with the New York Yankees against the Brewers. Fried signed an extensive 8-year, $218 million deal this offseason and has excelled at limiting hard contact—ranking in the 95th percentile in average exit velocity, 89th percentile in hard-hit rate, and 96th percentile in ground-ball rate. Although Fried occasionally struggles with command (walking 2.93 batters per nine innings last year), Paul believes the pitcher's ability to induce soft contact aligns perfectly with attacking Milwaukee's lineup, which performed poorly in their opener and whose key hitters—Jackson Chourio and Christian Yelich—appeared overmatched. These factors contributed to Paul's strong Yankees -1.5 run-line play.

NBC Sports Bet Staff strongly recommend betting on the New York Yankees moneyline and -1.5 run line on Saturday against the Brewers. Their model identifies value with the Yankees behind new starter Max Fried, who posted an 11-10 record with a 3.25 ERA over 174.1 innings in 2024. Fried faces Milwaukee starter Nestor Cortes, who was more pedestrian last season at 9-10 with a 3.77 ERA. Additionally, the article notes Milwaukee struggled offensively in the opener with just 7 hits and 13 strikeouts, suggesting their lineup could again struggle. The Yankees also won the opener 2-1 behind Carlos Rodon's strong start, indicating their staff is already performing well to begin the season. They also advised the over on the total of 8 runs, suggesting additional confidence in New York's ability to score on Milwaukee pitching.

Lonte Smith expressed skepticism towards Max Fried's chances for success in his Yankees debut against the Brewers. Despite Fried's decent statistics historically (2-1, 1.3 ERA) against Milwaukee, Lonte specifically highlighted that he hasn't pitched against them since 2022 and noted lingering concerns over Fried's effectiveness late last year, noting previous injury issues and underperformance relative to his perceived reputation as a Cy Young fringe candidate. With Nestor Cortes effectively pitching against his old Yankees teammates in what's effectively a home-field situation, Lonte sees value in fading Fried at inflated prices on Saturday, recommending betting on the Brewers as underdogs.