Guy Boston advised taking Max Kepler under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs at ‑118 on BetMGM for the early Cardinals-Phillies game. He leaned on several Outlier trends: Kepler has stayed under this line in 7 of his last 10 outings (1.6 HRR average) and in 23 of 38 games this season (61% under rate). The matchup has been particularly poor for him—five straight unders versus St. Louis dating back to 2024 with just 0.4 HRR per meeting, including an 0-for-3 record already this year. Outlier also flags an 88% under rate across Kepler’s last eight games (0.9 HRR). Boston added that left-handed starter Eric Fedde is holding lefty bats to lower ERA, BA and wOBA, while Kepler’s own .229 average shows no platoon edge. All signals point to another quiet afternoon, so Boston is comfortable fading the veteran outfielder once more.

Guy Boston advised taking Max Kepler under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs at ‑140 on BetMGM. Kepler has failed to clear this number in seven of his last eight games and 23 of 38 overall (61%). Against the Cardinals he is 0-for-11 in three meetings this season and has averaged only 0.4 HRR in his last five head-to-head matchups. He now draws Sonny Gray, who has been lethal versus left-handed hitters: 1.69 ERA, .213 batting average allowed, 0.8 HR/9 and .274 wOBA over 85 batters. Kepler’s own .229 average stays flat regardless of pitcher handedness, leaving little ceiling. Boston labeled it “phenomenal data across the board” for the under.