Merrill Kelly

Guy Boston sees Merrill Kelly potentially struggling today versus the Yankees given his significant difficulties against left-handed batters. He notes Kelly's vulnerability is particularly concerning given the Yankees' strong lefty hitters including Wells, Jasson Dominguez, Cody Bellinger, and Jazz Chisholm. Given Kelly's splits, this sets a solid stage for Yankees lefties to have an impactful game offensively.

Tokyo Brandon advised betting on Merrill Kelly and the Diamondbacks in the first five innings against the Yankees. Kelly has historically excelled against New York, holding Yankee hitters to a .180 average and .580 OPS in his career. He recently had a strong start, unlike opposing starter Carlos Carrasco, who has struggled in recent years. With Kelly maintaining solid form even at 36 and benefiting from Arizona's top-3 ranked offense by Brandon's metrics, Brandon sees value in taking Arizona at +0.5 runs for the first five innings at odds between -120 and -135, expecting Kelly to outperform Carrasco early.

Tristan H. Cockcroft identified Merrill Kelly as a viable pitching stream despite the challenging road matchup against the Yankees. Though Yankee Stadium is known as a hitter-friendly park, Cockcroft highlighted Kelly’s ability to limit home runs, evidenced by having the 11th-lowest HR/9 rate among pitchers with at least 450 innings since 2022. The Diamondbacks pitcher faces a potent New York lineup led by Aaron Judge, amplifying the risk, yet his history of suppressing long balls makes him worth consideration on a difficult slate with limited streaming options.

Derek Carty advises betting under 4.5 strikeouts (-110) for Merrill Kelly given his weak fastball velocity (91.9 mph, ranking in the 24th percentile among starters) and challenging opponent in the Yankees. Kelly's limited swing-and-miss capability against a potent New York Yankees offense caps his strikeout upside, making the under bet a strategically profitable move (+$7.96 EV, with 56% probability to hit).

Greg Peterson backs Merrill Kelly and the Diamondbacks, anticipating a rebound to his strong 2023 form where Kelly recorded a career-high 9.5 strikeouts per 9 innings and a solid 3.29 ERA. Despite an injury-shortened, down year in 2024, Peterson believes Kelly's talent and strikeout upside give Arizona the betting edge against Carrasco and the Yankees, pricing them favorably at -104 (Peterson's fair line: -123).

Dylan Rockford is extremely bullish on Arizona at an alternate run line of minus 1.5 at plus 145 odds against the Yankees. He backed this recommendation by underscoring Merrill Kelly's sharp pitching in his first outing against the Cubs, while juxtaposing it with Carrasco's disastrous relief outing against Milwaukee, allowing three runs in two innings. Rockford's numbers demonstrated Arizona should actually be a favored team around minus 125 in this scenario due to a definitive pitching and bullpen edge. He believes Kelly will continue dominating against a Yankees lineup that is currently shaky, further citing Arizona's strong bullpen and balanced offensive profile. Rockford sees significant betting value on Arizona covering the spread and winning comfortably, ultimately selecting this alternate run line as his dog of the day.

Scott Reichel strongly endorses backing Merrill Kelly and the Diamondbacks at a line of minus 102, considering it exceptional value against Carlos Carrasco, who has struggled mightily. Reichel pointed out Carrasco's current ERA stands at a disastrous 13.5, resulting from a terrible relief outing against a modest Brewers lineup. By contrast, Kelly impressed in his first start of the season against the Cubs and boasts solid historical performances against the Yankees. Additionally, Arizona possesses a reliable bullpen and a potent lineup currently performing well, notably Eugenio Suarez hitting key home runs. Reichel reiterated that getting nearly even money with clearly the superior pitcher, better bullpen, and an offense at least as capable as the Yankees is an attractive scenario and makes the Diamondbacks' money line his lock play for the slate.

Final Round recommended Merrill Kelly primarily due to his consistent hitting performance this season—Kelly has recorded at least one hit in every game thus far, with multiple hits in many matchups. While the batting averages of current opposing pitcher Ben Lively's primary pitches against aren't dire (mostly respectable averages allowed), Kelly’s reliability and current form are the main positive factors cited. Final Round flagged Kelly as one of the top three plays for the day.

Bettor Mark backs the Diamondbacks moneyline at -144 against the Cubs, emphasizing confidence in starting pitcher Merrill Kelly. The Diamondbacks are still looking for their first win of the season, and Mark believes this home matchup is a prime bounce-back scenario. He specifically mentions Kelly as someone he trusts to stop Arizona’s early losing skid and secure their first victory.