Bill Harrelson advised playing Miguel Vargas under 1.5 hits-plus-runs-plus-RBIs against Cleveland. Vargas has stayed below this number in eight of his past ten and fourteen of his past twenty games. Over the 2025 season he has failed in 52 of 89 contests (58%). Only PrizePicks and Underdog are leaving the line up, suggesting the broader betting market already prices the under. Despite averaging 4.1 plate appearances nightly, Vargas has produced just 0.6 combined HRR across his last 14 starts and is slashing .210 versus left-handed pitching compared to .219 overall. He has stayed under in four of the last five head-to-heads with the Guardians, giving Harrelson confidence to fade him again.

Lonte Smith doubled down on his White Sox upset angle by targeting Miguel Vargas to go deep against Zach Eflin. Smith called Eflin "batting practice right now," noting the right-hander has been tagged for 17 earned runs and seven homers in his last three starts while carrying an 8.74 ERA at Camden Yards. Vargas, meanwhile, owns multi-hit efforts in three of his last six games and has left the yard in two of his past four, boosting his hard-hit rate to 46% since returning from Triple-A. With Baltimore’s bullpen lugging a 7.00 ERA the last two weeks and wind projecting straight out to left at 8 mph, Smith likes Vargas’ chances to clear the wall and recommends betting Over 0.5 home runs at anything +400 or better while using him as a cheap DFS one-off in tournaments.

Erik Halterman urged fantasy managers to scoop Miguel Vargas off the waiver wire. Vargas sits fourth among qualified hitters in Ideal Attack Angle, pairs that with an 8% barrel rate and a 17% strike-out rate—numbers similar to last year’s breakouts Josh Naylor and Luis Garcia Jr. After opening the year with a .139 average over 20 games, Vargas has slashed .316/.368/.592 with six homers and only a 10% strike-out rate across his last 26 games. Halterman believes the superior attack-angle consistency and recent plate-discipline surge signal that 2024 could be the season everything clicks for the 24-year-old, making him an immediate add in season-long formats.

Guy Boston advised taking Miguel Vargas under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at –130 on DraftKings. He leaned on several data points: Vargas has cashed this under in 58 % of 2025 games (21-of-36) after an 80 % hit rate in 2024. The infielder is averaging only 1.56 HRRs per game and has stayed under in four of his last five meetings with Kansas City (0.8 HRRs per game). Overall batting numbers remain poor—a .216 average and 84.6 WRC+; against lefties that drops to a .212 average and 74.6 WRC+. He faces Royals southpaw Chris Bubich, who owns a sub-3.00 ERA and holds right-handed hitters to a .214 average with drops across ERA, HR/9, and wOBA. Boston concluded that the matchup and recent form both favor the under and saw –130 as fair value.