Nestor Cortes

Guy Boston expects Cincinnati's offense to rebound from their recent struggles (shut out in back-to-back games) against Nestor Cortes today. He highlights Cortes' exceptionally poor first start against the Yankees, where he allowed five home runs, five walks and eight earned runs in only two innings. While acknowledging the Reds typically fare worse against lefties, Guy Boston points to Cortes' fastball-cutter pitch arsenal matching favorable for Cincinnati hitters who excel against velocity-driven pitchers.

Zach Thompson identified Nestor Cortes as a buy-low MLB DFS candidate after a brutal Brewers debut, where Cortes gave up eight runs and five homers in just two innings. Despite this nightmare outing, Thompson highlighted Cortes's previous season's solid metrics (3.77 ERA, 3.84 FIP, 8.4 K/9) and his strong spring (four runs in 11 innings, 14 strikeouts) as indicators of better performances to come. The Reds struggled heavily against left-handed pitching last season, ranking in the bottom 10 in most offensive categories, setting Cortes up for a favorable bounce-back matchup at home.

Tristan H. Cockcroft pointed out Nestor Cortes as a potential streaming candidate despite his disastrous season opener against the Yankees, which included surrendering five home runs and issuing five walks. Cockcroft attributed the poor performance partially to first-game jitters against his former team. Returning to Milwaukee (American Family Field), a park that suppresses hits and inflates strikeouts despite being friendly to home runs, provides Cortes an excellent bounce-back scenario. Given the sparse selection of starters on Thursday's slate, Cortes presents high strikeout upside if his first outing proves an anomaly.

Michael Savio identified Nestor Cortes as likely to rebound tonight against an uninspired Reds lineup currently experiencing a two-game shutout streak. Although Cortes was heavily hit by the Yankees in his season debut, nearly the entire Brewers pitching staff struggled in that series, making the poor outing an outlier. Now facing Cincinnati's ice-cold offense, Cortes stands an excellent chance to return to form and deliver a winning performance for Milwaukee.

Greg Peterson is betting on a strong bounce-back from Brewers starter Nestor Cortes. Cortes had a horrific start against the Yankees (five home runs allowed, eight total earned runs in two innings), but Peterson points out his overall career ERA outside Yankee Stadium is respectable (3.94 ERA). He adds that, despite extensive bullpen use this season (5th-most innings pitched per game), Milwaukee's powerful offense last season (6th in runs per game) supports backing Brewers at -108 vs his implied fair line of -131.

Dylan Rockford emphasizes the over 7.5 runs between the Brewers and Reds, expecting offensive production given pitching concerns. He noted that his own statistical projections have the total around 8.4 runs, significantly higher than the available line. Rockford specifically identified Nestor Cortes' extreme struggles in his initial outing as a major factor driving this over play. While he did recognize the Reds' poor early results against lefties, he nonetheless believes their offense is capable and due to rebound after being shut out recently. Additionally, Rockford cited Milwaukee's improving offense as a sign this total may close significantly higher, solidifying confidence in betting the over despite its slight juice at minus 128.

Sean Paul advised betting against Nestor Cortes Jr. as he makes his Milwaukee Brewers debut pitching against his former team, the New York Yankees. Cortes experienced notable regression last season despite being a three-win player, posting just a 3.77 ERA and a 3.84 FIP while his strikeout rate declined. Paul pointed to the Yankees' intimate knowledge of Cortes' pitching repertoire and strategy, hinting they'll have a significant advantage facing him. Additionally, Cortes struggled in limited spring training action, recording a 6.00 ERA with nine strikeouts over just six innings pitched.

Bettor Mark advised fading Nestor Cortes against the Yankees despite the appealing narrative of Cortes facing his former club. Mark pointed out that historically these revenge and reunion matchups don't yield positive results for the players involved and are often overvalued by the public. He explicitly recommended backing the Yankees as a favorite instead of Cortes in this spot.