Lonte Smith is betting Nick Castellanos to leave the yard at Coors, noting the outfielder has hits in five of his last six and is squaring balls up despite a home-run drought that dates back to May 6. Antonio Senzatella’s 15.2% strikeout rate and 45% hard-hit percentage create a perfect power profile for Castellanos, whose pull-heavy approach plays even better in Colorado’s thin air. Smith expects Philadelphia’s lineup to ‘explode offensively’ and would take any HR price of +400 or better, believing Castellanos is overdue for positive home-run regression in baseball’s best hitting environment.

B Wade also locked in Nick Castellanos TO RECORD A SINGLE. The Phillies slugger is 6-for-8 lifetime off left-hander Andrew Heaney (.750) and is crushing southpaws in 2025 with a .360 average. Castellanos has notched a single in eight of his last 10 overall and nine singles in the 10 games in which he’s faced a left-handed starter this season. Wade emphasized that, with 65 % single rate on the year, the one-base prop captures Castellanos’ contact floor while letting bettors dodge variance in extra-base power.

Rob Donaldson wagered five units on Nick Castellanos—three units over 1.5 total bases and two units to go yard. He spotlighted Andrew Heaney’s current 46% fly-ball rate and 92.5 mph average exit velocity allowed, calling it ‘the worst hard-contact stretch of Heaney’s career.’ Citizens Bank Park will see mid-70s temps with a 10-mph breeze to left, perfect for Castellanos’ pull power. Nick owns a .392 wOBA versus southpaws since 2023 and has 10 barrels in his last 35 batted balls. Rob expects at least two hard-hit chances before the shaky Pirates bullpen enters.

Adam Rosenberg told listeners to sprinkle Nick Castellanos’ home-run prop against Matthew Liberatore, calling it one of his perennial “road-lefty mashes.” Although Castellanos has not left the yard since May 6, Rosenberg pointed out that his max-exit-velocity is still in the 92nd percentile this month and his .300 ISO versus southpaws in 2025 mirrors previous seasons. Liberatore has allowed seven of his ten homers this year to right-handed bats and carries a lifetime 1.30 HR/9. Rosenberg likes the plus-475 range available in the market and noted that Busch Stadium plays neutral for right-handed pull power, so one well-timed swing can cash the ticket.

Kyle Kargel recommended betting Nick Castellanos to hit a home run at +470 on Thursday. His case hinges on Rays starter Ryan Pepiot’s extreme home/road splits: all 8 homers he has surrendered have come in his five home starts, where right-handed hitters are batting .321 with a .593 SLG against him. Castellanos is red-hot, batting .346 with a .538 SLG so far in May and riding a four-game hitting streak. He clubbed 23 homers last season, five of which came in May, and he steps into George M. Steinbrenner Field, a park that has already yielded 57 homers (third-most in MLB). Kargel framed all of these factors—Pepiot’s vulnerability at home, Castellanos’ current form, his historical May power spike, and the homer-friendly yard—as reasons the +470 price offers strong value.

Despite ribbing him for a recent no‑show, the host is going back to Nick Castellanos because he is 4‑for‑8 (.500) off Tylor McGill and has a hit in 11 of 14 games overall. He likes Castellanos for over 1.5 total bases and as a mid‑tier DFS outfield play in a favorable park.

It's The Final Round recommended backing Nick Castellanos to record a hit (or multiple bases) against Cal Quantrill. Castellanos is torching four‑seamers at a .400 clip this year (6‑for‑15, 1 HR) and owns a .500 AVG versus split‑fingers, another pitch Quantrill relies on 22% of the time. He is also slugging .400 with a homer against curves. On Quantrill’s side, the four‑seamer has surrendered a .429 AVG and a homer, the splitter an alarming .800 AVG (4‑for‑5), and the slider .429 (3‑for‑7). Castellanos has at least one hit in nine of his last eleven contests and already owns a HR in eight career at‑bats off Quantrill. The host views him as a strong over 1.5 total bases or simple hit‑prop play for Saturday.

Ryan Wooden pinpointed Nick Castellanos as an excellent home run bet, emphasizing his elite performance against left-handed pitching (.528 career slugging, 8-for-16 this season) paired with extremely favorable hitting conditions that include 20 mph winds blowing out to left field on a warm day in St. Louis. Castellanos faces Cardinals starter Matthew Liberatore, who holds a concerning 5.84 ERA early on. Given Castellanos' historical strength against lefties and Liberatore struggling to limit damage, sportsbooks are offering tempting odds of +450 (FanDuel, BetMGM) for Castellanos to hit a home run.

Cresswell McCoy highlights Nick Castellanos as a strong home run candidate today, pointing out Castellanos' solid start with two home runs already this season, along with an impressive stat line of 16 hits and 9 RBIs. Castellanos' early-season numbers reflect his power and consistency, and McCoy anticipates Castellanos to continue this momentum today against the St. Louis Cardinals. McCoy views Castellanos favorably as part of the MLB home run prop bets offering solid betting value.

Jay Briggs suggested betting a Nick Castellanos home run or multi-RBI prop today against Braves starter Schwellenbach. While less emphatic than his Harper prediction, Briggs included Castellanos—nicknamed 'Nikki two-bags'—as an interesting prop option. Castellanos has a promising matchup for power hitting today in Atlanta, according to Jay, particularly given the Braves' pitching struggles early this season.

Data Skrive likes Nick Castellanos as a good player prop bet, citing his steady offensive production early in the season. Castellanos currently leads the Phillies with a .308 batting average and ranks 54th among all MLB hitters in RBI and home runs. His total bases prop is attractive at over 1.5 (+145), given his strong start at the plate and consistent ability to make solid contact. Bettors looking for actionable insight could capitalize on this prop.

Just A Bet Outside advised caution regarding Nick Castellanos, due to his pronounced inability to handle Chris Sale historically, accumulating 19 strikeouts. Despite Sale's inconsistent form this season, Castellanos' historical issues render him a risky DFS and prop bet consideration today.

Jon Metler recommended betting Nick Castellanos (+550) to homer against Kyle Freeland. Castellanos historically hits lefties well, and Freeland, a lefty, struggles against right-handed hitters. Additional favorable conditions include wind blowing out 11 mph towards left (Castellanos' pull side). Metler also noted Castellanos already has three career homers against Freeland, supporting the price advantage he sees (+550, compared to his projection closer to +350). Given Castellanos' matchup history, conditions, and clear pricing edge, Metler sees this as an ideal home run play tonight.

Chris Ruffolo spots compelling home run value on Nick Castellanos at a juicy +650 against Washington Nationals pitcher MacKenzie Gore. Ruffolo labels Gore as a "home run magnet," citing Gore's vulnerability to allowing hard contact consistently and a career ERA nearing 5 against the Phillies. Castellanos historically thrives against Gore specifically, sporting a .350 batting average (7-for-20) and two home runs in their head-to-head meetings. Ruffolo believes Castellanos is positioned to capitalize on this advantageous matchup to kickstart his 2025 season with a homer.