Nick Lodolo

Guy Boston advised betting against Nick Lodolo again today, highlighting his consistently poor pitching numbers despite a tolerable batting average allowed (.231). Lodolo struggled significantly last season with a concerning 4.76 ERA and a .290 BABIP, reflecting frequent hard contact allowed. He has already surrendered at least two runs once this season against the Giants and exhibited long-term patterns of vulnerability, having a notably poor finish to last season. Although the Brewers offense is neither elite nor terrible against left-handed pitching, sitting about league-average last year and again in early 2025, Guy Boston noted they are capable enough offensively to capitalize against Lodolo's persistent shortcomings. Despite the prop's slightly unfavorable juice (-150), Guy Boston sees clear metrics supporting the Brewers scoring at least two runs on Lodolo and considers this a highly actionable wager.

Guy Boston backs Nick Lodolo to surrender at least 2 earned runs against the Brewers, pointing to Lodolo's consistent struggles last season. Lodolo exceeded this earned run total in 71% of his outings last year and in his only game so far in 2025 against the Giants. He notably ended last year on a 10-game streak surpassing this line, averaging 2.9 earned runs allowed per start in 2024. His one start last season against Milwaukee resulted in him allowing 3 earned runs. While the Brewers were only middle-of-the-road against left-handed pitchers last season and this year, Lodolo's consistently poor performances make Guy Boston confident in this play, even at the higher juice of -150 odds.

Zach Thompson endorsed Nick Lodolo as a strong MLB DFS pitching play at Milwaukee. In his opening game this season, Lodolo pitched well (six innings, two earned runs), but curiously recorded only one strikeout, far below his impressive rates from last year (9.5 K/9) and spring (9.8 K/9). Thompson sees this as a clear opportunity for strikeout regression, especially given Lodolo's superior road splits from last year (3.56 ERA, 3.23 FIP). The Brewers offer a fine matchup for strikeout upside, making Lodolo particularly appealing in the DFS slate.

Michael Savio projects Reds pitcher Nick Lodolo to have a tough game tonight against the Brewers. Milwaukee’s lineup is heating up, scoring eight times in their last two games following a slow start. Lodolo struggled badly in his most recent start at Milwaukee last August, allowing three runs over 5 1/3 innings. With Milwaukee's Jackson Chourio and the Brewers lineup clicking, Savio expects Lodolo's struggles at American Family Field to continue tonight.

Eric Lindquist identified the Cincinnati Reds moneyline (-105) as a potential value bet, emphasizing a bounce-back opportunity for pitcher Nick Lodolo. Despite Lodolo only recording one strikeout in six innings in his debut, Lindquist expects significant positive regression, emphasizing Lodolo's considerable strikeout upside and a curveball he compares to Chris Sale's signature pitch. Although Milwaukee's home park isn't typically pitcher-friendly, Lindquist believes Lodolo's underlying strikeout profile makes the Reds a strong play, especially if the line shifts into plus money by game time.

Scott Reichel sees clear betting value in backing the Reds as a small underdog against Milwaukee due to the significant pitching advantage of Nick Lodolo over Nestor Cortes. Reichel highlighted Cortes' shockingly bad first outing this season, giving up three home runs immediately against the Yankees and resulting in a 36.00 ERA. He noted Cortes' previous struggles dating back to the end of last season, indicating possible longer-term deterioration. By contrast, he described Lodolo as the considerably superior pitcher in the matchup. Although acknowledging Cincinnati's recent scoring drought, Reichel strongly believes backing Lodolo at approximately even-money is worthwhile against a severely struggling Cortes, and sees the Reds as well-positioned to exploit this pitching mismatch.

Kyle Purviance recommends betting the over on Nick Lodolo's strikeouts due to the Brewers' extremely high strikeout tendencies so far. Despite playing just six games, Milwaukee already has 68 team strikeouts, second-most in MLB and approaching the Cubs who played three more games. Against left-handed pitching specifically, they have struck out 40 times in 123 at-bats, hitting just .220 with a slugging percentage of .309 and only two home runs. Purviance expects the strikeout prop for Lodolo at around 5.5 or 6.5, lower than usual due to Lodolo's recent rough outing, thereby seeing added value in going over against this favorable Brewers matchup.

Bettor Mark sees great value in betting the Reds on the money line (+100) against the Brewers. He emphasized the quality pitching matchup with Nick Lodolo starting, coupled with distrust in Milwaukee's bats and pitching staff. After Cincinnati failed to score despite numerous scoring chances in a shutout loss the day prior, Mark expects them to be particularly motivated offensively. He views the even-money odds as excellent betting value in this divisional matchup scenario.

Matt Perrault recommended backing Nick Lodolo and the Reds on the money line against the Brewers. He noted Lodolo had a solid first outing, going 6 innings allowing just 2 earned runs and 5 hits. Meanwhile, Brewers pitcher Nestor Cortez struggled mightily in his opener, getting shelled for 8 earned runs and 5 home runs in just two innings vs the Yankees. Perrault anticipates Cortez may again struggle, providing an ideal spot for Cincinnati's offense to wake up after back-to-back shutouts. He considers Lodolo a pitcher he trusted repeatedly last season and expects that to continue in a pitching matchup with a clear advantage for the Reds.

Dan Marcus advised caution with Nick Lodolo as a pitching option due to historical issues at his home ballpark, Great American Ballpark. Despite having the second-best K-BB% among available pitchers, Marcus observed that Lodolo has consistently struggled with poor pitching stats historically at home, making him an attractive fade candidate despite his solid underlying metrics.

Scott Reichel advocates taking the Reds first five innings against the Giants due largely to a favorable starting pitcher matchup featuring Nicholas Lodolo against Justin Verlander. He cited Verlander's concerning recent spring training outing against Arizona (5 innings, 5 runs allowed) as a red flag, questioning whether age has finally caught up with him. Given Cincinnati's hitting-friendly ballpark potentially exacerbating Verlander's struggles, Reichel highlights Lodolo's proven talent as a safer and more attractive betting angle than backing the unreliable Reds bullpen over a full game.

Brian Howard enthusiastically backed Nick Lodolo's strikeout prop, mentioning aiming aggressively at around eight Ks in Lodolo's season opener. He justified it by referencing Lodolo's historically strong early-season form and elite strikeout potential. Howard argued that, after Hunter Greene's struggles, the Reds would be motivated to let Lodolo pitch deeper and minimize bullpen usage, increasing his opportunities for strikeouts against the Giants lineup. He advised monitoring the prop number closely once released and planned to tweet out his position based on price.