Calling it a possible “lock of the day,” Kenny G is willing to lay the −195 with San Diego because Nick Pivetta’s current form far outclasses Mitch Keller’s matchup history. Pivetta is 5-2 with a 2.27 ERA and has dominated in back-to-back outings versus Seattle and Atlanta, while Keller coughed up eight hits and five runs to the Padres on May 2nd and now owns a 3.66 ERA despite a 1-6 record. Pittsburgh’s bullpen has sunk to 4.42 (bottom-10) and the offense remains dreadful—29th in runs, 30th in slugging, even after a pair of 9- and 10-run outliers. San Diego’s bats have woken up with 8, 8, 4, 5 runs their last four, and although the bullpen has slipped to 10th (3.39 ERA), it is still markedly better than Pittsburgh’s. Kenny could not justify the low 7.5 total but feels the Padres’ talent edge, Keller’s poor prior meeting, and Petco Park home field (where San Diego has taken two of three from Miami) all make the hefty price acceptable for straight wagers or parlays.

Mark called Padres –190 a perfect "dance-partner" money-line piece, trusting Nick Pivetta to "shut the door" against a Pirates lineup that has been over-performing. He expects Pittsburgh’s recent uptick in contact quality to vanish after flying west and forecasted a potential "shalacking" in San Diego’s favor. The bookmaker’s conservative seven-run total gave him slight pause on the Over 7.5 lean, but he ultimately labeled it Padres or nothing, suggesting bettors pair San Diego with other -150 to -200 favorites in small parlays.

Razzle said Nick Pivetta is his favorite GPP leverage play on the 8-game slate. The Yankees-Padres total sits at just 7.5 and Pivetta’s strike-out prop is 5.5 with juice to the over. Razzle emphasized Pivetta’s ceiling—he has cut the home-run issue to only two long balls all season—and pointed out that he just held the high-powered Cubs to four runs over 9 combined innings while whiffing a bunch of them. With DraftKings ownership projecting around 16 %, Razzle intends to be "pretty heavy" on Pivetta, banking on the low total, favorable weather and K upside to outpace similarly priced chalk.

Michael Savio said Nick Pivetta makes the Padres money-line a live dog at +122 in the Bronx. Savio highlighted Pivetta’s sparkling first campaign in San Diego – 5-1 record, 1.78 ERA and 0.82 WHIP overall, plus a 4-1 mark with a 2.22 ERA over five May starts. He expects a quick bounce-back from a shaky last outing because New York has dropped four of its last six and owns only a .678 OPS during that span. On the other side, Carlos Rodon’s 3.43 ERA and 0.98 WHIP look solid, but Savio noted that his last three strong starts came against teams in the bottom half of MLB OPS while the Padres rank third in batting average. If it turns into a bullpen game, Savio trusts San Diego’s relief corps far more than New York’s, pointing to new closer Devin Williams’ 8.18 ERA, 1.82 WHIP and loss of the ninth-inning gig. All of that led Savio to lock in Padres ML at plus money.

Kelly Kirby said she has "never really believed" in Nick Pivetta and is actively shopping him despite the tidy early-season ratios. Petco helps, but Kirby thinks the old story—big strikeouts, mid-4s ERA—will repeat once his 89% strand rate and .241 BABIP regress. Pivetta’s four-seam is still getting squared up (46% hard-hit, .480 xSLG) and his new-look cutter has a scant 8% whiff rate. Kirby predicted a 25-30 K% the rest of the way but warned fantasy managers that 1.30 WHIP pain is coming. Her advice: package Pivetta with a bench bat to chase an SP3 you trust or a reliable closer while his surface ERA still starts with a "2."

Pisapia’s second wager is the Padres moneyline against San Francisco with Nick Pivetta drawing Logan Webb. Joe acknowledged Webb’s sub-2.00 ERA but prefers the home side because Pivetta has been "brilliant" to start 2025 – 1.00 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, and a 28 % strikeout rate through his first four Padres outings – and Petco Park neutralizes the Giants’ limited power. He expects San Diego’s right-heavy lineup (Tatis, Machado, Campusano) to scratch out enough support against Webb’s declining ground-ball rate (down to 49 % from 57 % last year). With the Padres available near even money, Joe labeled it his favorite side play of the slate.

JD Bets targeted Nick Pivetta’s pitching-outs prop, taking the Over 17.5 (–164) and projecting the right-hander to complete at least six full innings against a punch-less Giants lineup. Pivetta has averaged 18 outs per start this season and has cleared the 17.5 mark in seven of his last ten, including back-to-back seven-inning efforts. San Francisco’s offense is ice cold—ranked 29th in runs scored over the last two weeks, dead last in extra-base hits and sitting on a .213 team average versus righties in that span. JD pointed out that the Giants do avoid strikeouts (6.2 K per game, best in MLB), which should actually help Pivetta’s pitch count efficiency by forcing early-contact outs. Historical data is on his side as well; Giants bats own just a .210 aggregate average in limited exposure. Because the total is only 6.5 and San Francisco lacks the punch to chase starters early, JD believes Pivetta pitching six clean frames is the likeliest game script and locked in the over-outs prop as a core play.

Mike Maher advised selling Nick Pivetta immediately while his value is sky-high. Through five starts Pivetta sports a 1.20 ERA, 0.77 WHIP, and 30 strikeouts in 30 innings, but Maher warned that nearly every luck indicator is flashing red. Pivetta’s BABIP sits at .205 and his HR/FB rate is an unsustainable 2.9%, numbers he called "not real." The 32-year-old owns a 4.66 career ERA, and Maher has "seen this movie"—Pivetta often dominates for a month before regressing hard. He recommended flipping Pivetta for hitters such as Taylor Ward, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Brandon Nimmo, Steven Kwan, or Luis Arraez depending on categorical needs, noting those names are near Pivetta on the FantasyPros trade value chart. Maher does not believe the right-hander will provide anything close to ace production once the correction hits.

Joe Pisapia advised fantasy managers to keep Nick Pivetta and resist the urge to sell high. Drafted late everywhere, Pivetta now sports a 1.20 ERA with a 4–1 record after tossing seven shut‑out innings of two‑hit ball against Detroit. His strikeout rate remains elite and the expected ERA sits below 3.0, confirming the skills spike. Pisapia noted the right‑hander is currently +3400 in the NL Cy Young market and already grades inside most "real" top‑five leaderboards. Because league mates are unlikely to pay true SP1 prices, Pisapia argued Pivetta is more valuable on the roster that originally drafted him and called him a potential league‑winner for season‑long fantasy.

Kyle Purviance likes Nick Pivetta to go over his strikeout prop (expects 6.5 line, comfortable at plus money for 7+). Pivetta leans on a four‑seam/curve mix—nearly 80% of his pitches—and Detroit’s lineup is among the worst at handling four‑seam fastballs: every projected Tiger except Spencer Torkelson carries a whiff rate above 25% versus heaters, with Javier Baez and Colt Keith above 40%. Purviance highlighted Tigers hitters’ put‑away rates (many over 30%) and noted Detroit’s 9.6 K per game average, third‑worst in MLB. Given Pivetta’s 28% strikeout rate dating back to last season and a spacious Comerica Park that lets him challenge hitters upstairs, Kyle projects seven to nine punch‑outs in six innings and will play the over.

Michael Savio said Nick Pivetta’s early‑season form makes the Padres a value moneyline play at -105. Pivetta sits at 3‑1 with a 1.57 ERA and microscopic 0.83 WHIP, and he has given up only one run across 13 innings in his last two outings. Savio reminded readers that Pivetta already handled Comerica Park last year (2 ER in 6 IP) and believes the Tigers will again strand traffic. On the other side, Jack Flaherty (1‑1, 2.53 ERA) finally looked human versus Milwaukee, surrendering 3 ER in 4.2 frames; San Diego’s current roster owns a .298 average off Flaherty. With Detroit’s lineup still bottom‑tier in run production, Savio argued the pitching mismatch plus San Diego’s historical success against Flaherty justifies riding the Padres ML.

Bettor Mark recommended backing the Padres on the money line at -122 against the Cubs. Despite the Cubs' strong 12-8 season start and impressive offseason acquisitions, Mark highlighted a bounce-back angle for San Diego after a recent loss. Nick Pivetta is starting for the Padres, giving confidence due to his solid performances, especially at home. Matthew Boyd pitching for the Cubs presents a favorable matchup for San Diego.

Michael Savio is skeptical of Nick Pivetta's impressive 1.59 ERA and 0.82 WHIP early in the season, suggesting these numbers are inflated. While Pivetta excelled against weak offenses such as the Rockies and Braves, he faltered significantly against the Cubs, allowing 3 earned runs on six hits and four walks in just three innings. Savio pointed out that the Cubs' offense leads all baseball by having scored over 120 runs this season, presenting a bad matchup for Pivetta that mirrors his previous struggles.

Greg Peterson recommends a moneyline bet on San Diego Padres at -113 against the Cubs, noting significant advantage for Padres pitcher Nick Pivetta pitching at Petco Park. Historically, home runs have strongly burdened Pivetta's numbers at 1.5 HR/9 career-wise, exacerbated by playing at Fenway Park in Boston the past five years. Pitching at Petco Park, his ERA is extremely positive at 1.69. Cubs starter Matthew Boyd has superficially good ERA (2.38), but underlying metrics suggest regression (3.32 FIP and a high walk rate of 3.2 BB/9). Additionally, the Cubs bullpen ranks poorly with a high 4.78 ERA, ranking 25th in MLB, indicating value at Peterson's personal line of Padres -158.

Chris Welsh called out Nick Pivetta specifically among several standout recent performances by pitchers, praising his 10 strikeout start against the Rockies. Welsh noted Pivetta's impressive consistency and strikeout potential since joining the Padres organization. While conceding that matchup played a role (Rockies), he believes Pivetta's current form is authentic, highlighting improvements in his command and approach. Fantasy managers who drafted him cheaply should be excited; Welsh described Pivetta as a potential league-winner at his current value.

Guy Boston feels strongly about betting San Diego Padres first-five innings -0.5 at -125, highlighting the matchup advantage with Nick Pivetta on the mound versus Colorado's predominantly right-handed batting lineup. Despite an unimpressive recent start against the Cubs, Boston underscores Pivetta's dominance against right-handed hitters this season. Colorado starter German Marquez relies heavily on fastballs, aligning directly with the Padres' batting strengths. Guy Boston thus views Padres as clearly superior both offensively and defensively for early-game dominance, strongly indicating first-five bet value.

Derek Farnsworth highlighted starting pitcher Nick Pivetta as a strong DFS option, emphasizing his relatively low 3.06 xERA, impressive 29% strikeout rate, and strong underlying metrics (3.30 SIERA). Pivetta faces a struggling Colorado lineup away from hitter-friendly Coors Field, with the Rockies having a miserable projected run total of just 3.04. Considering his excellent strikeout upside and favorable park shift, Farnsworth points to Pivetta as one of the best affordable pitching values on Friday's DFS slate.

Bettor Mark is betting Nick Pivetta under 6.5 strikeouts at plus 126 despite a favorable strikeout matchup against the Rockies. He highlighted that even though Colorado ranks second-highest in strikeouts, Pivetta has only surpassed six strikeouts once in his past 10 outings dating back to 2024. Additionally, Pivetta managed just four strikeouts in each of his first two starts this season, despite favorable conditions. Mark expects Pivetta to pitch around 80 pitches, enough to surpass four strikeouts but unlikely reaching seven. Mark stated he usually waits for more data points before heavily engaging in props, but sees strong value in betting under 6.5 strikeouts at these odds.

Kenny G anticipates a strong rebound performance from Padres pitcher Nick Pivetta at home against the Rockies. Pivetta had an outstanding home start against Atlanta previously (7 innings, 1 hit, 0 runs, 4 Ks, no walks), before a tough road outing at Wrigley Field. Kenny highlights Pivetta has traditionally performed better at home and expects him to recapture his previous form. Considering San Diego's excellent bullpen (1.65 ERA) and Colorado's weak hitting and league-worst bullpen, Kenny confidently recommends taking San Diego at minus one and a half runs (+114), predicting this could be a blowout victory.

Cash Out Sports Picks is backing Nick Pivetta and the Padres to close the series with a win over the Braves. Pivetta, considered underrated with excellent strikeout capabilities, is looking to rebound strong after joining San Diego. Furthermore, San Diego has enjoyed recent dominance over Atlanta, including seven wins in the past ten matchups. Doubts remain over the effectiveness of Braves pitcher AJ Smith-Shawver, who isn't viewed as a top-tier pitcher. With Atlanta clearly struggling offensively and San Diego relishing national TV spotlight moments, backing the Padres money line to sweep is confidently advised.