Malcolm Bamford’s long-shot dinger pick is Nolan Jones to go deep against Chris Paddack. Austin, SGPN’s resident weatherman, flagged 17-mph winds blowing out to right-center at Progressive Field, and Bamford wants to exploit Paddack’s growing gopher-ball problem—five starts, five home runs allowed, and a 40% hard-hit rate. He pointed out that left-handed bats have tagged Paddack for a .514 slugging mark this season and that Jones owns a .220 ISO versus righties since his call-up. At projected odds of +575 or higher, Bamford feels the combination of park, wind, and pitcher profile makes Jones a worthwhile sprinkle, adding that the Guardians quietly rank 8th in HR/FB rate at home.

Eric Lindquist advised jumping on Nolan Jones’ home-run prop if books hang anything longer than +450 for Monday’s matchup with Bailey Ober and the Twins. Lindquist pointed out that Ober’s strikeout rate has cratered to 20.9% while he’s allowing a 21.2° average launch angle—an ideal recipe for left-handed power. Jones’ surface stats look ugly, but his own launch angle has quietly climbed to 12.5° and Cleveland keeps him locked into the cleanup spot, giving him ample volume. Lindquist likes buying hitters during perceived slumps before pricing adjusts and added that, if Johnkensy Noel is NOT in the starting lineup, Jones will be protected from late-inning pinch-hit risk. With a neutral cross-wind and Ober’s fly-ball tendencies, Lindquist projects roughly a 19% HR probability, making +450 or better a clear value.

Kingpin took Jones to homer at + odds. Jones sports a .598 SLG at Coors with a 17‑degree average launch angle—perfect for the park. Brad Lord’s 42% fly‑ball rate and middling 91‑mph fastball give Jones, who owns a 114‑mph max‑exit this year, a juicy matchup to clear the right‑field seats.

Guy Boston recommends betting Nolan Jones under 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs due to his early season struggles and poor matchup against Orioles starter Sagano. Jones has notably struggled, especially with strikeouts against splitters and cutters, which are Sagano's primary pitches. Boston points out Jones' poor performance against these pitch types specifically, making his under prop a strong and actionable play given the matchup dynamics.