Scott Reichel singled out Oneil Cruz as his favorite home-run prop for Monday’s Pirates-Diamondbacks game. Reichel noted that Ryne Nelson has surrendered a long ball in three of his last four starts and owns a 1.75 HR/9 on the season. Arizona’s bullpen has also been torched for 1.46 HR/9, giving Cruz multiple cracks at shaky pitching. Chase Field projects as a top-five hitting environment on Monday with the roof expected open and a light breeze out to right. Cruz just registered a 122-mph rocket in Sunday’s game, reinforcing his elite raw power, and he already homered the only other time Reichel backed him this year. With Pittsburgh’s lineup otherwise thin, Reichel expects Cruz to be aggressive in hitter’s counts and priced the homer at +390 while most books still hang +430 or longer. He advised locking it in before the market corrects.

Shubham Soni said Oneil Cruz is worth a +280 home-run prop because the 6-foot-7 shortstop is squaring up baseballs at a 96.5 mph average exit velocity with nearly 50 % of his batted balls qualifying as hard-hit. Cruz draws Phillies prospect Mick Abel making his MLB debut, a spot Soni labeled 'chaotic and high-variance' where inexperienced arms often leave mistakes in the zone. One swing of Cruz’s left-handed power, especially against a right-handed rookie, can flip the game and cash the ticket.

Eric Lindquist leaned toward betting Oneil Cruz to hit a home run Friday against Bryce Elder. Lindquist noted Elder’s 42.3 % hard-hit rate and .467 expected slugging percentage, numbers that have left the Braves’ right-hander vulnerable to loud contact. Cruz profiles ideally for right field at PNC Park, but Lindquist cautioned that Elder keeps the ball down (11.3-degree average launch angle), which slightly tempers the upside. He wants a price better than +470 before firing, yet still labeled Cruz the one Pirate with legitimate long-ball appeal in this matchup.

Shubham Soni pushed Oneil Cruz at +280 to go deep in St. Louis. Cruz is doing everything in 2025—.243/.377/.505 with eight bombs, 18 RBI, 20 runs and 14 steals in only 32 games—and Busch Stadium plays friendlier to left-handed power than people think. Miles Mikolas has coughed up a 4.66 ERA and 1.34 WHIP over 29 innings and has always been softer on lefties. Soni likes the combination of Cruz’s elite bat speed, plate discipline and park factors against a righty who is struggling to miss bats.

Lindquist recommended attacking Miles Mikolas with Oneil Cruz HR and over 1.5 total-bases props. Mikolas owns a 16.2° average launch angle against—worst among qualified starters—and just a 14.7% strikeout rate, giving Cruz every opportunity to elevate. Cruz’s splits versus righties are elite (62.2% hard-hit, .587 xSLG) and his 112-mph max exit velo plays up in Busch’s humid evening air. Lindquist pointed out that St. Louis has started yanking Mikolas early after back-to-back outings under five innings, so bettors should consider same-game parlays including Pirates first-five team total over 2.5. He is allocating a full unit across Cruz HR (+475) and a smaller ladder on 2+ total bases at even money.

Shubham Soni recommended Oneil Cruz at +280 to go deep in St. Louis, noting the 6'7" shortstop’s two-way dominance (.243/.377/.505 slash with 8 homers, 14 steals in 32 games). Cruz bats left-handed against Miles Mikolas, who sports a 4.66 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and well-documented struggles versus lefties in Busch Stadium. Soni likes the blend of Cruz’s elite contact quality, base-running aggression that guarantees plate appearances, and a vulnerable veteran arm to create one of the slate’s best value power tickets.

Shubham Soni ranked Oneil Cruz his top homer play at +275. The 6-foot-7 shortstop is slashing .245/.364/.519 with eight bombs and 17 RBI while posting a monstrous 49.3 % hard-hit rate. He’ll face Padres righty Randy Vasquez (1-3, 4.28 ERA) who has surrendered 1.6 HR/9 in his brief career. Soni loves the platoon edge and Cruz’s elite barrel numbers, forecasting a ninth blast in a favorable Petco Park hitting environment.

Marcus expects Oneil Cruz’s breakout to roll on versus Randy Vasquez. Vasquez owns a ‑7.4% K-BB rate and 5.85 xERA across six starts, while Cruz has already flashed double-digit barrel rates and elite max-EV numbers. The matchup supplies both a floor of counting stats and slate-breaking homer upside for $6,000.

Data Skrive posted Oneil Cruz at +330 to hit a homer versus the Cubs, and the numbers say that’s a bet worth circling. Cruz has launched 8 long balls in 28 contests (28.6%), while the +330 price bakes in only a 23% chance. With Wrigley’s wind expected to be neutral and Cruz sporting elite barrel and exit-velo metrics, that 5-6% edge on implied probability makes the lefty a strong plus-money dart for HR prop hunters.

BetMGM Betting pointed to the Over 0.5 Home Runs for Oneil Cruz at +400. Cruz has cleared this number in six of his last nine games, generating +21.85 units and a 243% ROI for anyone tailing the trend. Although facing Tyler Glasnow is a difficult assignment, Dodger Stadium’s afternoon conditions generally boost left-handed power and Cruz’s 118-mph max-exit velocity ranks in the top 1% of MLB. Bettors looking for a high-payout dart can ride the recent heater at four-to-one odds.

Storin endorsed Oneil Cruz at +390 to homer off Angels lefty Tyler Anderson despite the same-handed matchup. Cruz has opened 2025 with an 18.5% barrel rate (93rd percentile), a 56.6% hard-hit rate (94th) and his customary 100th-percentile max exit velocity. Anderson’s 62.3% fly-ball rate this year continues a multi-season trend, and he has been vulnerable to left-handed power: 1.82 HR/9 to LHB in 2023, 1.77 HR/9 in 2024, and all three long balls allowed in 2025 have also come from lefties. Anderson’s modest 18.2% strikeout rate in the split should give Cruz plenty of contact opportunities, leading Storin to label the Pirates shortstop a strong long-ball bet.

Chris Ruffolo backed Oneil Cruz to leave the yard at +330. He pointed out that all five of Cruz’s 2025 homers have come off right‑handed pitching and that the 6‑foot‑7 shortstop owns an 18% barrel rate with top‑6% average exit velocity. The matchup is Jack Kachanowicz, whose 6.20 ERA includes four homers allowed in four starts—two of them in his only home appearance. Ruffolo believes the combination of Cruz’s elite batted‑ball profile and Kachanowicz’s long‑ball problems makes this a worthwhile HR prop for Wednesday night.

Kingpin targets Oneil Cruz for over 1.5 total bases against Washington. Cruz’s excellent power and newfound plate discipline put him in prime position against soft-tossing righty Trevor Williams. The Pirates’ shortstop possesses raw power potential that makes this prop highly likely to cash.

Kyle Purviance advised betting on Oneil Cruz to hit a home run against Marcus Stroman, specifically highlighting Cruz's exceptional exit velocity against slower-velocity fastballs. Purviance called Stroman a 'meatballer,' vulnerable at the beginning of games before settling down, enhancing Cruz's likelihood to capitalize early. He explicitly mentioned betting Cruz to hit a home run at long odds (13 to 1) for his first plate appearance and anticipated a roughly +400 payout for Cruz hitting a home run at any point during the full game.

Chris Morgan targeted Oneil Cruz as a premier DFS bat, citing Cruz's unique power-speed blend after producing 21 homers, 22 steals, and 34 doubles in the previous season. While Morgan acknowledged Cruz's strikeout issues, he focused heavily on the favorable matchup, pinpointing pitcher Max Meyer's vulnerability in giving up longball damage (2.29 HR/9). With Meyer consistently allowing hard contact, Morgan confidently projected Cruz as an ideal hitter positioned to capitalize on this exploitable home-run prone profile.