Morgan endorsed Pablo Lopez at $9,700, noting that everything is finally clicking for the right-hander: a 7.40 K/BB ratio, a 2.18 ERA, and the same elite homer suppression that has long been part of his profile. While San Francisco’s offense is slightly above average, Morgan trusts Lopez’s Cy Young–caliber form and expects another quality start with plenty of strikeouts, making him a strong single-entry play for those who want similar upside to Sale at a slight discount.

Malcolm Bamford laid –140 with Minnesota, trusting Pablo Lopez’s 2.08 ERA and 1.11 WHIP while noting trade rumors have not affected his performance. Lopez’s change-up/slider combo is limiting opponents to a .196 average, and his 28% strikeout rate should neutralize a Guardians lineup slugging just .367 versus righties. Conversely, Luis Ortiz is showing regression signs: 5.40 ERA over his last three and five walks in his most recent Progressive Field appearance. Bamford believes the Twins’ mini five-game win streak signals they are pushing toward contention, not a sell-off, and forecasts a clean six innings from Lopez before turning it over to a rested bullpen.

Kenny G advised laying the modest –130 with Minnesota because the matchup advantages stack up for the Twins. Pablo Lopez is in a classic bounce-back spot after a rare off game and still owns the much higher ceiling than Luis Ortiz, whom Kenny flat-out said he doesn’t trust. Cleveland is averaging just 2.8 runs over its last five and ranks 21st in runs and 22nd in OBP. The Guardians’ usually elite bullpen has slipped to league-average (3.72 ERA), so late-inning dominance is no longer guaranteed. Minnesota’s sticks are trending the right way, and Kenny expects Lopez to work deep enough to keep the shaky Twins relief group from blowing the edge. With the Guardians over-reliant on a couple of bats and Ortiz unlikely to give length, Kenny made Minnesota –130 his play, calling it a fair price that should close higher.

Eric Lindquist recommended Minnesota on the money line and even the ‑1.5 run line because the Angels fly cross-country after a West Coast set while the Twins remain rested at home. He expects Pablo Lopez (28.7% K-rate, 5.3% walk rate in 2023-24) to overpower an Angels lineup that whiffs 24% of the time versus right-handers. On the other side, presumed spot-starter Kyle Hendricks lacks swing-and-miss (17% K-rate, sub-90 mph fastball) and owns a 42% hard-hit rate since the beginning of last season, giving the Twins’ surging top four of Julien, Correa, Lewis, and Kirilloff a platoon advantage. Factor in cool Minneapolis weather that suppresses long balls for the travel-weary Halos, and Lindquist believes the Twins should be priced several cents shorter than current numbers.

Although Pablo Lopez comes off the IL to face an Angels lineup with a high strikeout rate and low walk rate, Todd Zola said he would look elsewhere in leagues with games-started limits. Lopez logged only 4 2⁄3 innings in his lone rehab outing, and the Twins’ deep bullpen gives Minnesota little incentive to push him. Zola expects 5-ish innings at most, limiting both win equity and strikeout volume.

Just A Bet Outside featured Pablo Lopez in the pitcher report, noting he's allowed just three earned runs through 12 innings this year despite lower strikeout totals. Facing a Royals lineup that has been inconsistent, Lopez projects strongly for quality innings and potentially enhanced K numbers today.