Bill Harrelson took Patrick Bailey to record at least one base versus Tampa Bay. Bailey has reached safely in 7 of his past 9 and 13 of his last 20 (65 %). At Oracle Park he’s cleared in 4 of his last 5, averaging 1.4 bases. Across 83 games this season he’s hit in 55 % of contests and posted a 60 % rate over 104 games last year. Harrelson noted Bailey’s improved splits versus right-handed pitching, while the Rays’ scheduled righty owns a .156 opponents’ average that tightens to .145 against lefties, effectively neutral. With roughly four plate appearances expected, Harrelson believes Bailey will pick up a hit or walk and top the 0.5 total-bases/on-base line.

Guy Boston advised taking Patrick Bailey under 1.5 hits-runs-RBIs in tonight’s home tilt with Colorado. Bailey has stayed below this line in eight of his last ten (0.7 H+R+RBI per game) and 17 of 25 on the season (68 % under). He is batting just .160 overall and an even worse .136 versus left-handed pitching, producing a feeble 20.4 WRC+ in that split. Opposing starter Kyle Freeland gives up only a .161 average and .211 wOBA to right-handed bats—Bailey will hit right-handed as a switch-hitter—while Bailey’s limited six-PA sample against Freeland has yielded no extra-base hits or RBI. Although Freeland’s numbers balloon versus lefties, the tout trusts Bailey’s own struggles to keep him quiet, pricing the under at –160 on BetMGM and slotting it as the second leg of the ladder-challenge parlay.