Scott Reichel singled out Pete Alonso as his home-run play of the day against Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland. Citi Field is forecast for a 7 mph breeze blowing out to left, a perfect jet stream for Alonso’s pull-side power. Freeland may have allowed only three long balls over the past month, but Reichel argued the underlying contact is frightening: a .317 batting average against and 43% hard-hit rate overall. Alonso has rediscovered his timing, homering in two of the last four games and posting a 52% fly-ball rate during that stretch. Given Freeland’s 0-7 record and .930 OPS allowed to righties on the road, Reichel is happy to play Alonso Over 0.5 HR at +325 or better and to anchor Mets stacks in DFS line-ups that lean on right-handed power.

Shubham Soni made Pete Alonso his No. 1 prop of the slate, grabbing +300 for a home run against left-hander Kyle Freeland. Alonso is slashing .290/.364/.580 with 11 homers and 43 RBI and has gone deep twice in his last four contests. Freeland enters 0-7 with a 5.86 ERA, surrendering a .551 SLG and 2.1 HR/9 to right-handed bats, thanks in part to an 89 mph average exit velocity allowed—the worst mark of his career. Soni highlighted Alonso’s 46% pull rate and Citi Field’s favorable left-field jet stream as perfect complements to Freeland’s sinker that leaks arm-side and up. With the Mets projected for nearly five runs, Soni believes the Polar Bear is primed to clear the fence again.

Chris Ruffolo said Pete Alonso is worth a home-run ticket at +340 because the Mets slugger has dominated Walker Buehler historically. In 14 career at-bats against Buehler, Alonso is 5-for-14 with FOUR of those hits leaving the yard. Ruffolo noted that Buehler is expected to get the ball for Boston on Tuesday and has been solid overall, which keeps the price generous, but Alonso’s extreme HR success in the matchup makes the risk worthwhile. Ruffolo reminded listeners these props are long shots but called Alonso his favorite matchup-based play on the slate.

JD Bets flagged Pete Alonso as a prime Dinger Tuesday target if Walker Buehler indeed takes the hill for Boston. In the small but telling sample, Alonso owns 4 homers and 8 RBI in just 14 career at-bats against Buehler, translating to a .286 average with a ridiculous .857 slugging percentage. JD called it a personal "vendetta" matchup and noted that right-handed Mets hitters in general have fared well against Buehler’s fastball/slider combo when he has been less than fully stretched out. Although current boards were temporarily missing standard HR lines, JD said he will add Alonso the moment markets reopen, preferring the straight home-run prop but willing to consider a Runs+RBI combo if pricing dictates.

JD Bets fired on Pete Alonso to hit a home run at +150, citing Merrill Kelly’s ugly history against the Polar Bear. Alonso owns a .313 average, three long balls, and a 1.200 OPS in 16 prior at-bats versus Kelly, while the first baseman has been ‘raking’ during the Mets’ recent offensive surge (New York rates just behind the Dodgers as MLB’s hottest lineup on JD’s sheet). Although he also leaned Mets moneyline at –125, JD said the better value lies with Alonso’s homer prop given Kelly’s vulnerability and the desert’s hitter-friendly conditions.

Ryan Coleman rolled out a three-leg SGP built around the Mets offense and made Pete Alonso the centerpiece. He likes Alonso to record 3+ total bases at +175 because the first baseman has already taken Merrill Kelly deep three times and owns a .938 slugging percentage against him. Coleman stacked that prop with Mets team total over 4.5 runs and Mets -2.5, noting several supporting angles: (1) Juan Soto (16 prior ABs) and Jeff McNeil (two career homers) also profile well versus Kelly; (2) Arizona’s bullpen ranks 24th in MLB, giving New York nine innings of friendly pitching; (3) Kodai Senga brings a 1.38 ERA into the matchup and has yet to allow an extra-base hit to anyone in the Diamondbacks lineup, creating a lopsided run-prevention edge. After New York managed only one run the previous night, Coleman expects a bounce-back fireworks show and is comfortable laying the -2.5 run line while chasing plus odds on Alonso’s total bases.

Just A Bet Outside spotlighted Pete Alonso as a priority bat thanks to both form and history. Alonso is 5-for-16 lifetime off Merrill Kelly with four extra-base hits, three of them homers. Stephen added that Alonso’s 2024 plate skills are improved across the board—strike-out rate down, walk rate up, batting average up—making the Mets slugger, in his words, “a new guy this year.” Those factors combined make Alonso a strong DFS cornerstone and a candidate for home-run or total-bases markets.

For bettors hunting longer odds, Data Skrive circled Pete Alonso to hit a home run at +320 versus Merrill Kelly. Alonso’s .341/.463/.659 start features 9 homers and an MLB-best 87 total bases through 37 games; he is leaving the yard once every 15.2 plate appearances. Kelly’s sinker/curve mix neutralizes lefties but has historically surrendered a .448 SLG to right-handed power, and Chase Field’s summer roof-open conditions add carry to the pull side. With Alonso’s fly-ball rate sitting at 48% and his average exit velocity north of 93 mph, Data Skrive argued the market should be closer to +250, making +320 an exploitable edge for a one-unit homer sprinkle.

It's The Final Round highlighted Pete Alonso’s small-sample dominance of Zac Gallen (3-for-6, .500) plus a scorching run in which Alonso has logged a hit in 14 of his last 16 games. With Gallen’s four-seam/fader mix playing into Alonso’s power stroke, the tout likes Alonso’s chances to clear his total-bases line or go deep.

Zarpentine pegged Pete Alonso at +300 to leave the yard. Alonso has eight home runs already, and five have come on the road. He’s 4-for-9 against Diamondbacks starter Ryne Nelson with three of those hits clearing the fences, a HR rate that jumps off the page even with the small sample. Alonso also enters with eight hits over his last six games, indicating his timing is dialed in. If he gets three plate appearances versus Nelson before Arizona’s bullpen, Zarpentine believes the Polar Bear has a strong chance to connect on at least one mistake fastball.

Calling it one of the cleanest plays on the board, Shubham Soni recommended Pete Alonso at +290. Alonso is torching pitchers to a .344/.468/.656 line with eight homers and a 1.124 OPS through 35 games, and he now draws Ryne Nelson’s 5.82 ERA. The Polar Bear has already taken Nelson yard three times in just nine career plate appearances (4-for-9, .444 BA). Soni trusts the MVP-level form plus the pristine BvP data to keep Alonso’s power parade rolling.

Soni called Pete Alonso the "cleanest" HR prop at +290. The Polar Bear is on an MVP-caliber tear (.344/.468/.656, 1.124 OPS, 8 HR, 31 RBI through 35 games) and now sees Ryne Nelson, who owns a 5.82 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. Alonso’s personal BvP is ridiculous: 4-for-9 with 3 homers and a steal off Nelson. Combining premium form with a pitcher he’s already punished makes Alonso Soni’s top statistical slam-dunk among tonight’s long-ball wagers.

Just A Bet Outside highlighted Pete Alonso’s dominance of Ryne (Ryan) Nelson, noting the Mets slugger is 4-for-9 with all four hits going for extra bases – three of them homers. Nelson has surrendered a .508 slugging percentage to right-handed power bats this year, and Alonso’s 51% hard-hit rate over the last two weeks suggests the power stroke is locked in. With four separate Mets (Alonso, Lindor, Nimmo, McNeil) owning strong BvP lines, the tout outlined a favorable game stack and recommended Alonso HR or over 1.5 total-bases props at plus money.

Jim Turvey advised grabbing Pete Alonso at +1300 to win NL MVP at BetRivers while every other book sits between +650 and +750. Turvey noted the Mets’ blistering start—best record in baseball through the first month—puts their star first baseman on center stage. Alonso ranks second in MLB behind only Aaron Judge in expected wOBA (.471) and owns an even higher expected slugging percentage than his actual slugging, signaling more power is coming despite an already torrid April. Turvey dismissed concerns about a soft schedule, pointing out that offensive metrics such as hard-hit rate and barrel rate travel. He acknowledged MVP voting has become a WAR leaderboard, but argued Alonso’s 80-grade power can close the defensive WAR gap if he pushes 50 homers on a first-place New York club. Turvey also cited mild voter fatigue toward Shohei Ohtani’s three-peat attempt and the fact that a warm-weather L.A. schedule offers less narrative sizzle than Alonso mashing summer homers at Citi Field. Even with potential vote-splitting from teammates Juan Soto or Francisco Lindor, Turvey believes the BetRivers number is too long and will inevitably tighten once Alonso’s surface stats catch up to the underlying data.

Raineri told listeners to pass on Shohei Ohtani’s +260 NL-MVP price and sprinkle Pete Alonso at 11-1 instead. He argued Ohtani’s number bakes in perfect health, yet even a two-week IL stint would ‘blow the market wide open’. Meanwhile Alonso’s first-month power binge (12 homers, .636 SLG) rivals Aaron Judge’s AL production and keeps him inside shouting distance if Mets pitching steadies. Raineri added that the National League race is far tighter than the American, so bettors should chase ceiling, not floor. He also mentioned Kyle Tucker and Corbin Carroll as longer-shot considerations but made Alonso his primary value target because his counting stats can survive a Mets cold spell.

Final Round likes Pete Alonso to stay hot against Zac Gallen. The Polar Bear is 2-for-3 (.667) off Gallen and has recorded a hit in 13 of his last 15 outings. Consider Alonso for hit or total-bases props, or as a power upside dart in HR markets.

It's The Final Round said Pete Alonso is one of his favorite targets on Wednesday against Corbin Burnes. Burnes is living off a 43 % cutter that has surrendered a .278 average and two homers, plus a slider (.273 BAA), sinker (.273) and curve (.286). Alonso matches up perfectly: .429 average and a homer off cutters, .333 off sliders, .400 with a homer on sinkers (10-for-25) and .500 off curves this season. Lifetime he is 6-for-15 with 3 bombs (.400) versus Burnes. Alonso has a hit in 12 of his last 14 games—six of them multi-hit—so the tout recommends betting Alonso to record a hit, take his total-bases line, or sprinkle a home-run prop.

Purviance singled out Pete Alonzo’s RBI/total-base props against Corbin Burnes, noting the former Cy Young winner is throwing his cutter 55% of the time this year—exactly the pitch Alonzo punishes. The Mets slugger has a .608 xSLG and 18° average launch angle versus cutters since 2023, and five of his last nine homers have come on that pitch. Purviance added that Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto’s elite on-base skills ahead of Alonzo should guarantee traffic, while Burnes’ cutter has lost 1.5 MPH and two inches of horizontal break compared to his 2022 peak. Books typically hang Alonzo at –105 for over 1.5 total bases and +125 for an RBI; Purviance likes both, with a sprinkle on a home-run prop around +350.

Kingpin advised jumping on a Pete Alonso 1+ RBI prop. The reasoning: Williams should have to throw strikes to the slugger with runners on, and Alonso remains “one of baseball’s elite power bats.” The article notes New York’s stacked heart of the order, which means Alonso is likely to hit with men aboard multiple times. A home run would obviously cash, but even a single to the gap is enough for the ticket.

Kenny G floated a Pete Alonso home-run prop as a value play, noting the slugger is batting .333 with six homers and 26 RBI through 28 games and "probably feels like he’s got a little bit to make up for" after yesterday’s throwing error cost New York an 8-7 lead. Facing Trevor Williams, who has already surrendered four bombs in 24.2 innings and owns a 1.62 HR/9 since last season, Kenny likes Alonso’s chances to bounce back in a hitters’ park and atone for Sunday’s miscue.

Kingpin Staff circled Pete Alonso as an anytime-home-run target against Washington rookie Mitchell Parker. Alonso enters the day in a "hot streak" and already owns 7 homers in his last 15 games. Parker’s fastball sat just 92 mph in his debut and produced a 48% hard-hit rate, numbers Kingpin says are tailor-made for Alonso’s pull-side power. With Nationals Park yielding a 15% HR boost to right-handed batters in April weather, they believe one mistake heater is all the slugger needs.

It's The Final Round said Pete Alonso is a premium over target (total bases / hits / HR) against rookie Brad Lord. Lord leans on a four–seam fastball 47 % of the time and a sinker 29 %. He has been tattooed on both offerings, surrendering a .400 average on the heater and .429 on the sinker, plus a .333 clip on his slider. Alonso, meanwhile, is demolishing those same pitches this season: .417 (5-for-12) with 3 HR off four–seamers, .364 (8-for-22) with a HR off sinkers, and .300 (3-for-10) off sliders. Although the two have never faced each other, Alonso has recorded a knock in 9 of his last 10 games, so the tout expects Lord’s shaky command to turn into at least two total bases for the Mets’ slugger.

Marcus highlighted Pete Alonso ($5,500) as the premier spend-up bat in what will likely be the day’s most popular stack. Rookie right-hander Brad Lord has surrendered six earned runs and 20 baserunners across his first 11.1 MLB innings while showing a below-average 9.1% swinging-strike rate. Alonso’s 18.4% barrel rate and 92.7 mph average exit velocity make him the best bet to punish Lord’s mediocre heater. Marcus warned the stack will be chalky but still believes Alonso’s double-dong potential justifies the price and ownership.

Stephen highlighted Pete Alonso’s dominance of Aaron Nola and suggested betting both the total bases (+150) and hits‑runs‑RBIs (over 1.5 at –110) props. Alonso is 16‑for‑50 lifetime off Nola with eight extra‑base hits and five homers. At home this year he has cleared both lines in 6 of 10 games and has gone over in 5 of 9 contests versus right‑handed starters. Overall, the Polar Bear has at least one hit in 15 of 22 games. Nola’s form is shaky—Stephen called it “mightily struggling”—which further tilts the matchup in Alonso’s favor. Given the hitter’s history and Nola’s current woes, Stephen believes Alonso is primed to eclipse both prop lines again.

It's The Final Round backed Pete Alonso props against Aaron Nola, noting the unique overlap where Alonso excels against the very pitches Nola struggles with. Versus Nola’s sinker (38 % usage) Alonso is 6‑for‑17 (.353) with a homer. The bigger edge is Nola’s surprisingly poor knuckle curve: hitters are 4‑for‑10 (.400) with a homer off it this year, while Alonso owns a .333 mark and three homers on curves over the last three seasons. Alonso is also mashing four‑seamers (.500, 5‑for‑10, 3 HR). Head‑to‑head he’s 6‑for‑21 with 3 bombs (.286). Alonso has hits in 13 of 17 games, nine of them multi‑hit, so the tout recommends betting him to record a hit, laddering total bases, or using him as a DFS cornerstone in hitter‑friendly Citizens Bank Park.

Shepardson played the "Higher" on Pete Alonso 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (1.80x at Sleeper, same line at Underdog). Alonso has torched Aaron Nola for six homers, three doubles and a .731 slugging percentage in 57 career PA (17 hits overall). He’s also scorching in 2025 with 27 hits, 24 RBIs and a .346/.453 slash across just 95 plate appearances. That mix of current form and dominant BvP makes the over a strong value.

Kingpin picked Alonso to homer. The Polar Bear owns a .352 ISO versus southpaws since 2023 and already sits at 10 bombs on the season. Matthew Liberatore has surrendered six of his nine career homers to right‑handed sluggers on elevated four‑seamers—Alonso’s wheelhouse pitch. Warm spring air in Queens only helps the ball carry.

Chris Ruffolo said Pete Alonso is worth a plus‑295 homer bet against the Cardinals because the underlying matchup checks every box. Alonso already has five homers and 11 extra‑base hits versus right‑handed pitching in 2025, and Miles Mikolas has long been one of the league’s most generous arms in terms of hard contact and barrels allowed. Ruffolo expects Alonso’s raw power to punish Mikolas’ average 91‑mph sinker and four‑seamer in Citi Field’s mild April weather and labeled it his favorite HR prop of the day.

Joe Orrico’s favorite prop Wednesday was Pete Alonso over 1.5 total bases at juicy +150 odds. Alonso enters with three straight multi‑hit games and, despite facing ground‑ball machine Andre Palante (70% GB rate), Orrico trusts the polar bear’s current barrel binge to elevate something. Palante has allowed a .316 xBA the first time through orders, and Great American Ballpark’s warm weather only boosts Alonso’s chances of clearing two bases with one swing or a pair of singles.

Stephen advised staying away from Pete Alonso props on Friday, noting that the Mets slugger is just 3‑for‑18 with four strikeouts against Miles Mikolas. Mikolas’ pitch‑to‑contact style has consistently neutralized Alonso’s power, and Stephen prefers pivoting to other first‑base options in DFS and avoiding Alonso’s RBI or home‑run markets.

Joe Osbourne strongly favors Pete Alonso over 1.5 total hits, runs, RBI against the Cardinals and pitcher Andre Palante tonight. Alonso's impressive hot start (.365 average, 1.205 OPS through 50 at-bats in April) and consistent dominance versus right-handed pitching and home matchups (OPS over 1,000 in both splits) are cited by Osbourne as strong support. He also calls attention to Palante’s fortunate .182 batting average on balls in play allowed despite surrendering significant hard contact, as well as a suspect Cardinals bullpen, projecting sustained elite output from Alonso tonight at Citi Field.

Chris Ruffolo picked Pete Alonso to homer against Andre Pallante, emphasizing Alonso’s dominance versus right-handed pitching this season. Alonso's currently batting .358 against righties, with an impressive 11 extra base hits out of 19 total hits against them, including five home runs. He’s among the elite hitters in MLB this season, ranking in the top 1-2% in barrel rate and hard-hit percentage. Given Pallante’s struggles and Alonso’s hot start, especially his performance against right-handers, Ruffolo sees Alonso as prime candidate to hit a home run in this matchup.

Just A Bet Outside recommends betting Pete Alonso one-plus RBI prop (+140 DraftKings) due to his current scorching hot performance. Alonso is batting .356 on the season and is on a three-game RBI streak. With consistent on-base producers like Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto batting ahead of him, Alonso should have plenty of RBI opportunities, especially given Andre Pallante's recent issues with command (seven walks in limited innings). While Pallante hasn't shown horrific earned-run numbers so far, his elevated walk tendencies create significant run-producing opportunities for Alonso.

Bill Harrelson strongly recommended betting on Pete Alonso to exceed 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs in his matchup against the Cardinals. Harrelson pointed out Alonso's recent hot streak, hitting this number in 7 of his last 10 games and four straight games with exactly four hits/runs/RBIs each. Alonso also historically dominates Cardinals pitching, posting performances of seven and two hits/runs/RBIs in recent head-to-head matchups. Additionally, Alonso holds a .333 batting average and impressive .600 on-base percentage against Cardinals pitcher Andre Pallante. This favorable pitcher-specific data, along with sportsbooks such as DraftKings also favoring the prop, positions Alonso's over as a strong recommendation.

Kingpin highlights Pete Alonso as an excellent home run bet against the Twins’ rookie pitcher David Festa, who lacks significant major league experience. Alonso's elite power and recent hitting surge make him a prime candidate to capitalize on Festa's inexperience, especially considering Alonso's recent hot streak and potent bat.

Kingpin pointed to Pete Alonso as a prime candidate to homer at appealing odds (+250). Alonso faces Twins starter Bailey Ober, a fly-ball pitcher who could struggle to contain Alonso's power bat in favorable evening hitting conditions. Kingpin highlighted Minnesota's ongoing struggles and Alonso’s excellent power matchup as rationale for this home run prop.

Ryan Wooden highlighted Pete Alonso as a strong candidate to homer against the Athletics, noting Alonso's hot start to the 2025 season with four home runs, 18 RBI, and a league-leading .714 slugging percentage. Alonso has traditionally punished right-handed pitching and faces Luis Severino, who has already allowed four home runs over his first three starts. The game will be played in warm conditions (78 degrees) with wind blowing across the field in Sacramento, factors that could further boost Alonso's home run chances. Wooden pointed out that Alonso already hit a homer Friday night in Sacramento, making him a compelling selection at +340 odds according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Data Skrive sees Mets slugger Pete Alonso with a strong chance to clear his total bases prop against Oakland. Alonso enters the matchup red-hot, batting .588 over his current five-game hitting streak, with four doubles, one home run, two walks and eight RBI in those games. On the season, Alonso's .378 batting average, four home runs and 18 RBI position him as the Mets' leading hitter and primary power threat. Given Oakland's poor 6.33 team ERA over their last 10 games and struggles against power bats, Alonso profiles as highly likely to cash the 1.5 total bases over prop betting line (+105 odds).

Data Skrive highlighted Pete Alonso as a strong home run prop bet at odds of +275 against the Oakland Athletics. Alonso has posted impressive numbers in the early 2025 season, slashing .378/.482/.778 with 4 home runs and 35 total bases across just 13 games. He faces pitcher J.T. Ginn, providing Alonso with an advantageous matchup given his early-season power surge.

It's The Final Round points out Pete Alonso as a strong batter to target against J.P. Sears, emphasizing Alonso's effectiveness against Sears' pitch mix. Alonso holds impressive batting averages of .345 against change-ups (Sears' second favorite pitch) and a striking .409 versus sinker balls. Sears, meanwhile, is vulnerable on these secondary pitches with batting averages allowed nearing or surpassing .260 for all except his four-seam fastball. Additionally, Alonso enters this game swinging hot, recording hits in six of his last seven games and four multi-hit games within that span, suggesting a high-upside play against Sears' preferred pitches.

Andrew Geller is extremely bullish on Pete Alonso, having aggressively targeted him in multiple drafts. Geller believes Alonso entered the season undervalued due to his lack of speed but has demonstrated vintage-level performance reminiscent of his 53-homer breakout season. Alonso is displaying improved pitch recognition, notably laying off sliders that previously gave him trouble, taking walks, and consistently going opposite-field. With Alonso playing in what's essentially a contract year and looking locked-in at the plate, Geller expects a monstrous season of around 45 homers, 200 combined runs/RBI, and a solid batting average, making Alonso an immense value at draft cost.

Chris Bennett highlights Pete Alonso ($3,900) as an optimal DFS choice due to Alonso's established home run track record and advantageous weather conditions at Citi Field, which feature strong outbound winds. Marlins starter Connor Gillispie had an extreme fly-ball tendency last season (57.9%), suggesting significant homer potential for Alonso in this matchup.

Kyle Purviance advocated betting RBI props for Pete Alonso, especially considering his optimal batting position behind Francisco Lindor, whose consistent ability to reach base greatly increases Alonso's RBI opportunities. Despite Lindor's surprisingly modest batting average around .250, Purviance highlighted Lindor has still consistently found ways to get on base almost every time Alonso bats, significantly lifting Alonso's RBI upside. Purviance specifically targeted Alonso's 1-plus and 2-plus RBI prop markets, noting desirable odds in the range of +450 to +550, making these bets particularly appealing given Lindor's recent high frequency on base.

Dylan Rockford enthusiastically backed Pete Alonso as his home run pick against former teammate Chris Bassitt. Alonso has been performing impressively at the plate recently, and Rockford emphasized the added motivational factor going against an ex-teammate. Given Alonso's potent bat, recent hot streak, and familiarity with Bassitt, Rockford strongly supported the Mets slugger as a confident home run wager.

Data Skrive calls attention to Pete Alonso as a standout DFS option and season-long fantasy play against Toronto this Friday. Alonso currently leads the Mets with eight RBI—eighth-best across MLB—and has connected for two home runs this season. He's hitting at a solid .286 batting average and has shown clutch ability early, notably delivering a recent three-run homer against Miami. Given his strong output thus far, his prominent role in the Mets lineup, plus a favorable home environment at Citi Field to capitalize on opposing pitching, Alonso offers attractive DFS upside in this matchup.

Drew Martin highlighted Pete Alonso's impressive history at LoanDepot Park, making him an excellent player prop option. Alonso boasts 12 career home runs and an OPS exceeding .900 in Miami's home stadium. Given his strong splits and past success in the stadium, he stands out as a valuable target for player props in this matchup against the Marlins.

Just a Bet Outside cautioned about Pete Alonso's difficult matchup versus elite pitcher Sandy Alcantara, highlighting Alonso's struggles going 5-for-32 with 8 strikeouts in previous at-bats against Alcantara. Given Sandy's reputation as an elite pitcher and Alonso's documented issues facing him historically, it's recommended to avoid Alonso today in fantasy or prop betting.

Bill Harrelson advises betting Pete Alonso to not score a run versus Miami based on strong statistical backing. Alonso hasn't scored yet this season, was held scoreless in eight of his last ten, and hit this under in 14 of the last 20 games overall (70%). Historically against the Marlins, Alonso hasn't scored in nine of his last thirteen matchups (69%). Against Marlins pitcher Cal Quantrill specifically, Alonso has struggled, batting only .167 across six plate appearances since 2018 with just one hit.