Lindquist plans to fire on Rafael Devers over 1.5 total bases as long as the number opens with a plus sign. He highlighted Devers’ elite underlying profile—418 xWOBA, 568 xSLG, 58.3% hard-hit rate, only 22.9% strikeouts and a 16.1% walk rate—calling him "one of the best hitters in baseball, period." The matchup sweetens things: Aaron Civale sports a 7.52 expected ERA through two 2024 starts and yields high fly-ball contact. Lindquist expects Devers’ HR prop to be unplayably short (sub +280) but projects the total-bases market right around 50/50, giving bettors significant EV if plus money appears.

Jeff Erickson told listeners to buy—or simply stop worrying about—Rafael Devers after the third baseman torched May pitching to the tune of a .402 average and a league-leading RBI total entering Friday night. Erickson chalked Devers’ April slump up to the fact he missed all of spring training with shoulder irritation, noting that diminished bat-speed readings in early April have already bounced back to 2023 levels. With the rust gone, Fenway’s cornerstone slugger is back to posting 50-percent hard-hit rates and top-10 barrel percentages, metrics that historically translate into 35-homer, 110-RBI pace over a full season. Erickson advised sending aggressive offers before the narrative fully flips, suggesting a package headlined by a top-25 outfielder (e.g., Christian Yelich) in redraft leagues. He also expects Devers’ DraftKings salary to jump $600-plus within a week, making this the last window to roster him at a discount in DFS tournaments.

Kingpin recommended betting Rafael Devers to hit a home run against Dean Kremer. Kremer has a 3-5 record with a bloated 5.50 ERA and has surrendered 1.7 HR/9, while Fenway Park boosts pull-side power—especially for Boston hitters—because of the short right-field corner and wrap-around bleachers. Devers has seven of his nine long balls at home this year and owns a 48% fly-ball rate versus right-handed pitching. With Walker Buehler giving Boston a pitching edge, Kingpin expects the Red Sox to control the game and give Devers multiple high-leverage at-bats against a shaky Baltimore bullpen that sports a 4.73 ERA.

It's The Final Round said Rafael Devers is a must-attack prop today versus Dean Kremer. Kremer leans on a four-seam (32% usage, .366 BA allowed), curve (24%, .233), and splitter (22%, .391). Devers smashes each: .272 versus four-seams, .462 versus curves, and a ridiculous .667 versus splitters (small sample). Devers has a hit in 11 of his last 14 games and owns a 6-for-16 (.375) line with a homer lifetime off Kremer. His 42.1% launch-angle sweet-spot rate ranks 15th in MLB, reinforcing the hard-contact profile. The tout highlighted multiple wagering angles: Devers has cleared 1.5 hits in 16 of 20, 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs in 6 of 9, 1.5 total bases in 5 of 7, and has scored in 6 of 7. He recommends building Devers into hit parlays or taking whichever of those markets posts the friendliest price when books open.

Scott Reichel singled out Rafael Devers as his home-run pick of the slate. Zach Eflin served up four homers in his last start and has been crushed by left-handed pull power (43% hard-hit rate, 1.9 HR/9 to LHB). Devers owns a career .368 average and two dingers in 19 prior plate appearances versus Eflin and just launched two more into the Fenway seats on Friday. With Eflin’s sinker leaving the yard 12% of the time when spotted glove-side—a zone Devers feasts on—Reichel projected at least one ball clearing the Monster and suggested backing the HR prop and RBI markets while Devers’ bat is sizzling (.682 SLG over the past week).

Grant Neiffer said Rafael Devers is his favorite leg in Monday’s three-man dinger parlay at an effective +445 after FanDuel’s 30 % profit boost. Neiffer noted Devers’ barrel rate, hard-hit rate, and fly-ball rate are all sitting at career highs despite a sluggish start that produced fewer homers than expected. He pointed out several warning-track outs in the past month as evidence the underlying power is intact and simply needs a little positive variance. The matchup versus rookie right-hander "Job/Jobe" projects slightly above average for long balls and the wind at Fenway will only be a mild deterrent with temperatures in the high 70s. Neiffer concluded the metrics plus the number make Devers a strong bet to go deep.

Pisapia also bet Rafael Devers to record a run at +145. He cited Devers’ 46% hard-hit rate over the last two weeks and Detroit’s bullpen ranking 26th in xFIP. With Jobe struggling to miss bats (16% whiff rate) and Houck likely keeping Boston in front, Pisapia expects Devers to bat at least five times and believes a single extra-base hit or walk will put him in scoring position against a relief corps allowing 1.32 HR/9.

B Wade backed Rafael Devers over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs, noting the lefty has cleared that mark in three straight and 13 of his last 20 games. Devers is 2-for-5 with a homer off projected starter Seth Lugo and owns a .260 average versus righties compared to his .253 season clip. Five of his six 2025 homers have come against right-handed pitching. In this current series with Kansas City he has already smashed the combo line in both outings, including a four-hit night Saturday. Wade trusts the recent barrel rate uptick and likes that Sleeper is paying 3x on a two-leg entry built around this prop.

Kingpin targeted Rafael Devers over 1.5 total bases. Devers owns a .580 slugging percentage against right-handed pitching at Fenway since 2023 and now faces rookie Jack Leiter, who has coughed up 4 homers in his first 15 MLB innings. With Leiter relying heavily on a fastball Devers crushes (career .420 xwOBA vs 4-seamers), a double off the Monster or a pull-side homer would clear the prop quickly.

Eric Lindquist said Rafael Devers is the top home-run bet on Thursday because Jack Leiter is giving up a 14-degree average launch angle and a .409 xSLG, making him susceptible to pulled fly balls. Devers already sports a 61% hard-hit rate, a 95.4 mph average exit velocity, and a 44.2% pull percentage that perfectly matches Leiter’s fly-ball profile in Fenway’s short right-field porch. Lindquist noted that Corey Seager’s number is attractive, but Devers’ matchup is even better because of Leiter’s low ground-ball rate and Fenway’s hitter-friendly dimensions. He’s comfortable taking Devers’ HR prop at the current price and labeled it his preferred play from the early slate.

Shubham Soni made Rafael Devers his top HR prop of the day at +265. Devers is blistering hot, slashing .429 with 15 hits, three homers, nine RBIs and a 1.300 OPS in his last eight games while consistently laying off junk. He now gets Twins right-hander Chris Paddack, who sports an 0-3 record, 5.60 ERA and 1.45 WHIP and has struggled to keep the ball in the yard. Devers has roasted righties all season, so Soni expects one misplaced fastball to leave Fenway in a hurry.

Collin Whitchurch threw out Rafael Devers at 150-1 as a couch-change AL MVP lottery ticket. Devers started 0-for-18 with 15 strikeouts but has rebounded to a 120 wRC+ while leading the league in both walks and strikeouts. Full-time DH duties cap his defensive WAR, meaning he must mash, yet Whitchurch noted his recent .400+ xwOBA surge suggests that is exactly what he’s doing. At 150-1 the market appears to have over-corrected for April’s slump; if Devers continues his current tear and Boston hangs around in the wildcard race, the number could be slashed into the mid-double digits.

BetMGM Betting advised jumping on Rafael Devers Over 0.5 RBI at +135. The model call-out leans on Devers cashing this exact prop in 7 of his last 8 games, good for +10.95 units and a 137% ROI. Boston’s offense leads the league in hard-hit rate, and Devers is sitting on a 56% hard-contact clip during the streak. Toronto’s starter Jose Berrios ranks in just the 4th percentile in right-handed miss rate and often falls behind hitters (56% of pitches away when behind in the count), a pattern that sets Devers up for repeat RBI chances. With the Red Sox implied for 4.3 runs and Devers back in the three-hole, BetMGM sees plenty of volume for another run-producer ticket to cash.

Devers began 2024 ice-cold but Beer pointed out signs the dam has broken: two homers in his last three games and, despite the slump, a .206 ISO and 70 % hard-contact rate versus right-handers remain intact. Bowden Francis is the perfect get-right target, surrendering an .309 ISO and absurd 84 % hard contact to lefties with a .205 BABIP that screams looming regression. Beer called Francis “lucky” so far and expects things to get worse before they get better. With ownership likely muted by early-season numbers, Devers is his clear Beast of the Night and the cornerstone of Red Sox stacks.

Johnny Venezia said fantasy managers should be on alert with Rafael Devers because the early skills simply are not matching the draft‑day price. Devers is sitting on a .228 batting average with just one homer and a career‑worst 31 % strike‑out rate. His 98 wRC+ is the lowest he has ever posted through mid‑April, which Venezia attributed to either age‑related decline or a tweak in approach. While the exit‑velocity readings remain strong, Venezia warned that drafters expecting a no‑doubt 30‑homer anchor may need to temper expectations or explore trade offers before the market fully adjusts.

Kingpin played Devers Over 1.5 total bases, citing his .602 slugging at Fenway and a 54% pull‑side fly‑ball rate against righties. Rookie Shane Smith features a 91‑mph four‑seamer that Devers has historically mauled (.450 xwOBA). One wall‑ball double or two singles likely does the trick given Devers’ 46% hard‑hit rate.

It's The Final Round is excited about Rafael Devers' matchup versus Davis Martin, highlighting Martin's weaknesses versus Devers' strengths. Martin struggles mightily against multiple pitch types giving up a .400 batting average on his primary pitch (four-seam fastball), .235 against both changeups and cutters, and a heavy .308 versus the curveball. Conversely, Devers excels against Martin's mix, hitting .308 on fastballs, .292 on change-ups, and overall maintaining strong numbers against such pitches. Devers also comes into the game hot, recording at least one hit in eight of his last nine games, suggesting a high likelihood of success in this matchup.

Eric Lindquist strongly recommended betting on Rafael Devers for two-plus total bases against White Sox starter Davis Martin, citing ideal hitting conditions and batter-versus-pitcher factors. Devers has dominated Boston's hard-hit data early in the year with a robust 71% hard-hit rate, alongside a .453 expected slugging percentage. Lindquist identified Davis Martin as an exploitable pitcher due to consistently poor metrics including a .445 xwOBA, .630 expected slugging, and an exceptionally weak 8.2% strikeout rate. With wind blowing out to right field and advantageous matchup conditions, Lindquist labeled Devers' two-plus total bases bet as an auto-play at any plus money odds offered by sportsbooks.

Zachary Roberts pinpoints Rafael Devers as a prime breakout candidate today, suggesting a perfect opportunity facing Chicago White Sox pitcher Davis Martin (5.73 ERA). After a slow start, Devers is heating up—two hits in an extra inning win yesterday raised his average to .278—but he's recorded just one home run thus far. The favorable matchup against a struggling pitcher gives Devers an excellent chance to regain his typical All-Star power, making him an enticing target for today's home run props.

JD Bets highlighted Rafael Devers' strong batting history against Toronto pitcher Chris Bassett, noting three home runs in just 14 career at-bats. This .214 HR rate against Bassett represents an elite matchup, prompting immediate interest from JD Bets. He underlined that Devers is worth consideration for a home run prop today, given the powerful and consistent past results against Bassett.

B Wade highlighted Rafael Devers as his favorite play of the day, citing excellent historical matchup data against Chris Bassitt. Devers has hit safely in his last six of eight games. More impressively, he's batting .500 (7-for-14) with three home runs lifetime against Bassitt. Given this strong track record, B Wade considers Devers a prime candidate to exceed 1.5 hits/runs/RBIs and even suggests it wouldn't be unreasonable to consider a prop bet on Devers hitting a home run in this matchup.

It's The Final Round loves Rafael Devers’ hitting outlook against pitcher Chris Bassett today. Bassett's primary pitch, a sinker, is his most thrown ball (a preference rate highest among his pitch types) but is also his weakest, conceding a batting average of .372. Devers historically excels against this pitch and has thrived in head-to-head matchups against Bassett, batting .545 (6-for-11) with two homers lifetime. Devers is also notably on a hot streak with hits in six of his last seven games, including multiple multi-hit performances during this stretch, underscoring his current form in addition to his terrific historical data against Bassett's pitch mix.

Kyle Purviance supports targeting Rafael Devers in prop markets against Chris Bassitt, highlighting Devers’ strong historical splits facing Bassitt. Devers has recorded seven hits in just 14 at-bats, including three home runs. Despite his occasional volatility, Kyle argues Devers is hitting the ball extremely well after an early-season slump and expects continued strong performances. He specifically likes targeting Devers for at least two RBIs or multiple total bases based on this favorable matchup, provided weather conditions remain clear.

Just A Bet Outside strongly recommended Rafael Devers based on his recent hot streak and history attacking Chris Bassitt. Over the last seven days, Devers has been exceptionally hot, hitting .409 with seven RBI, turning around his earlier struggles totally. Historically, Devers has dominated against Bassitt, hitting .500 (7 for 14). Given this perfect alignment of both a hot streak and historical batter versus pitcher success, Devers emerges as a prime DFS target or a good consideration for betting his offensive props today.

Just A Bet Outside strongly recommends betting Rafael Devers' offensive props, specifically over 1.5 total bases or hits/runs/RBIs (HRs). Devers is red-hot, hitting above .400 over his past seven games. Historically, he's had great success against Chris Bassitt, with a .500 average (7 for 14) including five extra-base hits and three home runs. He consistently exceeded two total bases in the five most recent meetings against Bassitt, highlighting an actionable batting advantage. With Devers currently on a tear offensively and historically dominant against Bassitt, he stands out as an excellent betting or DFS choice.

Data Skrive highlighted Rafael Devers as a valuable prop bet candidate against Toronto after a strong recent stretch at the plate. Devers is hitting .421 over his last five games, with four doubles, one home run, and six RBI. He's also recorded hits in back-to-back games, suggesting increased confidence and consistency entering this matchup. Given Devers' recent performance, the recommendation is to play Devers props, particularly over 0.5 hits and possibly his RBI totals.

Kyle Kargel identified Rafael Devers as a strong play for hitting a home run against Toronto pitcher Chris Bassitt. Kargel noted Devers' impressive history against Bassitt, with a 7-for-14 career record including three home runs. Although Devers entered the matchup with modest season stats (one home run, batting .265), he's heating up in April with an impressive .433 batting average and a .700 slugging percentage. Kargel emphasized Bassitt's vulnerability against lefties, as 14 of his 18 home runs allowed last season were to left-handed hitters, and lefties are currently hitting .286 against him this season. Given this matchup, Kargel recommends betting Devers to homer at +390 odds and also mentioned other lefty Red Sox bats like Wilyer Abreu (+560) and Triston Casas (+680) as potential alternatives.

It's The Final Round likes Rafael Devers' matchup today against Kevin Gausman, highlighting Devers' historically strong performance against him. Devers sports a lifetime .364 batting average with 8 hits including one home run in 22 at bats versus Gausman. Gausman primarily pitches a four-seam fastball (54%) and slider (10%), which Devers historically hits at .308 and .355 respectively. Gausman's split finger pitch is his strongest, but Devers still holds a decent average (.259) when facing it, which is impressive considering the pitch's rarity and effectiveness. Recently, Devers has found strong form, recording hits in five of his last six games, including three multi-hit outings. Given the proven track record, strong historical splits against Gausman, and current hot streak, Devers provides excellent fantasy value and is highly recommended for MLB prop betting today.

B Wade recommended betting Rafael Devers over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs against Kevin Gausman and the Blue Jays. Although Devers began slowly, Wade noted he's found consistency recently, exceeding this prop in five straight games, highlighted by strong production against the Cardinals. Historically, Devers hits Gausman well, batting .333 (8-for-24) with only an 11.5% strikeout rate. Wade emphasized Devers' improving form and historic matchup advantage as reasons for confidence.

Brian Howard expects Rafael Devers to experience positive offensive regression after a slow start to the season. Devers has struggled early but recently showed signs of life, collecting multiple hits across recent games. Howard expressed high confidence that Devers will start swinging and hitting to his expected standards going forward, particularly emphasizing that Devers has started turning things around in recent days, reflecting expected regression to his mean offensive performance.

Matt Perrault is confident Rafael Devers will record a hit in the Red Sox home opener at Fenway Park. Devers went 0-for-4 in his last outing, but he had two hits the game before and should benefit from being back at Fenway with the home crowd support. Perrault specifically highlighted that Devers will likely get a standing ovation from the home fans in his first at-bat, creating a strong environment for the star to deliver at least one hit against the Cardinals.

Michael Savio highlighted Rafael Devers' potential for a strong showing against Orioles starter Charlie Morton, pointing out that Devers broke his early season slump with an RBI double yesterday. Morton, while having had a notable career, is beginning to show clear signs of age-related decline, as evidenced by his increasing WHIP over the past four seasons. Moreover, Morton struggled immensely during his Orioles debut, surrendering seven hits and four earned runs over just 3 1/3 innings. Given Devers' momentum and Morton's shaky recent performance, the veteran pitcher represents a favorable matchup for Devers to continue finding his form.

Joe Pisapia strongly recommended fantasy managers sell Rafael Devers early, citing alarming underlying concerns despite the player's established brand reputation. Devers has struggled heavily early this season, going hitless in several games with an unusually high strikeout total. Pisapia attributes these struggles to Devers appearing out of shape, experiencing a significant 3-mph decline in swing speed likely due to ongoing shoulder issues, and showing visible displeasure with Boston transitioning him primarily to DH. Due to Devers' strong name recognition still granting solid trade value, Pisapia advises dealing him swiftly rather than waiting for further value deterioration.

B Wade advises fading Rafael Devers under 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs against Charlie Morton and the Orioles, citing multiple concerning factors. Devers had a slow start, going without a hit in his first five games this year before managing his first hit in the sixth game. His recent shift to DH after publicly wanting to remain a fielder might be negatively impacting his mental approach. Devers also struggles specifically against Morton, batting just .219 over 32 at-bats without a single home run, compiling only four RBIs. Additionally, head-to-head recently against Baltimore he's hit this mark once in his last four appearances. These struggles make Devers a confident fade.

Joe Piapisa continued expressing concern for Rafael Devers, citing his lingering health issues and poor attitude toward his current DH role. Piapisa speculated the possibility, though unlikely at this stage, of the Red Sox trading Devers midseason to acquire pitching talent like Dylan Cease or Sandy Alcantara. This scenario, if realized, would create opportunities for prospects like Roman Anthony and Wilyer Abreu to step into the lineup. While cautious about real-life likelihood, Piapisa suggested fantasy managers should entertain dealing Devers immediately if a strong offer is presented, given concerns over his health and attitude possibly dragging down future fantasy value.

Joe Piapisa expressed significant concern regarding Rafael Devers' brutal early-season slump, highlighting a staggering 0-for-16 performance with 12 strikeouts. He specifically noted that Devers' bat speed has declined by three miles per hour compared to previous norms, potentially signaling lingering shoulder issues. Welsh echoed these concerns, pointing out that rolling data charts depict historically low bat speed numbers for Devers. Both analysts raised red flags about underlying health factors, speculating the shoulder hasn't fully recovered, adversely impacting Devers' swing and production. Piapisa even hinted at the possibility of the Red Sox being inclined towards trading Devers if these problems persist and his attitude becomes problematic. Fantasy managers are advised to monitor closely and possibly explore trade scenarios in light of these troubling signs.

Joe Piapisa provided actionable advice regarding Rafael Devers' early struggles, noting that the sizable decline in his underlying bat speed may reflect deeper issues stemming from his recent shoulder issues. Piapisa inferred these ongoing issues could even put Devers' real-world trade risk higher given Boston's aggressive prospect development pipeline featuring names like Kristian Campbell and Roman Anthony. Considering these factors, Piapisa implied fantasy managers might want to explore trading Devers now before further news negatively impacts his market value.

Just a Bet Outside cautioned about Rafael Devers' historically bad start to the season, highlighting a concerning statistic of 15 strikeouts in his first 19 at-bats. He provided context comparing this to Tony Gwynn, who remarkably struck out only 15 times across 585 at-bats in 1995, underlining just how alarming Devers' early struggles are. Given the unusually high strikeout rate and slow start, Just a Bet Outside implied Devers could remain cold at the plate in the near future.

Kyle Purviance expressed strong negativity towards Rafael Devers' recent abysmal slump. Devers is currently 0 for 19 on the season, with a shocking 15 strikeouts and only two walks. Purviance described Devers' struggles as 'uncomfortable' and comparable to the performance an amateur would offer facing elite pitching. The severity of Devers’ current slump raises major concerns about his near-term fantasy value and betting potential. Given his inability to make contact or display any plate discipline amidst this severe cold streak, Devers is an immediate fade until he demonstrates signs of improvement.