JD Bets locked in Randy Vasquez over 1.5 walks (-135) at PNC Park. Vasquez has issued at least two free passes in all six starts this year and eight of his last ten dating back to 2023. Pittsburgh’s lineup quietly ranks 11th in walk rate (3.5 per game both overall and at home), giving the matchup a built-in floor. JD’s prop sheet lit up with green: 6-for-6 to the over this season, plus the Pirates have coaxed 3.59 BB per game in their own park. With Vasquez’s pitch-count volatility and Pittsburgh’s patient approach, JD expects the over to cash by the fourth inning.

Peterson hung Tampa Bay at +151, implying San Diego should be closer to –151, so he is happy to lay the current –120ish number with the Padres. He admitted Randy Vasquez is volatile—dominant for two starts before being shelled by Detroit—but still prefers him to Zack Littell, who brings a contact-heavy profile and barely seven strikeouts per nine. San Diego’s lineup is rounding into form with Fernando Tatis Jr. healthy, Luis Arraez setting the table and Manny Machado heating up, whereas the Rays are still searching for offense beyond Yandy Diaz and a hobbled Randy Arozarena. With Petco’s spacious dimensions, a ground-ball leaning Vasquez should keep the ball in the yard, and the Padres can deploy Robert Suarez and Wandy Peralta in leverage spots. Peterson would play San Diego to –135 and, with his model spitting out 7.9 runs, is neutral on the flat eight but looks to pair the money-line position with live unders if it creeps to 8½.

Guy Boston mentioned potentially playing a Cubs team total over, specifically targeting San Diego starter Randy Vasquez, whom he explicitly expressed reservations about backing. He highlighted the Cubs' lineup getting a boost with Seiya Suzuki back in at DH, joining Ian Happ and Cole Tucker at the top of the order. Given Vasquez's questionable performance history, Guy Boston stresses the appeal of isolating the Cubs offense directly against the Padres starter rather than opting for full-game bets dependent on bullpen performance.

B Wade recommends betting Randy Vasquez under 2.5 earned runs, focusing heavily on favorable home splits. Vasquez has pitched significantly better at home, highlighted by finishing last season with five consecutive home starts staying under the earned-run threshold. Additionally, this season, Vasquez has thrown a shutout in his only home game versus Atlanta, reinforcing strong home trend reliability. Given Vasquez's consistent home performances (only surpassing this prop in two of his last nine home outings), B Wade labels this an appealing bet today.

Tokyo Brandon recommends betting the under on Randy Vasquez's total recorded outs prop of 15.5 against the Cubs. Despite Vasquez pitching six innings in an earlier start against Atlanta, he's struggled in recent outings. Notably, Vasquez lasted only 4.2 innings in a previous start facing these same Cubs while laboring through 82 pitches. Brandon expects a similarly tough outing today, emphasizing Vasquez's poor recent form and diminished effectiveness. With San Diego leveraging their strong bullpen and Cubs coming in fully rested with elite offensive ranking (2nd overall by Brandon's metrics), it's unlikely Vasquez will pitch into the sixth inning. Brandon strongly suggests the under as a betting opportunity.

Dana Lane highlighted Randy Vasquez's impressive start to the season with a very strong 1.72 ERA. Facing off against Cubs' pitcher Imanaga (2.70 ERA), Lane emphasized Vasquez’s significant early-season performance as a key reason to back the Padres. Lane believes the Padres pitching matchup gives them value here despite being slight underdogs at around +$1.12 versus Chicago, who is favored at -$1.32.

Dan Palyo advised betting the under on Randy Vasquez's 3.5 strikeout prop based on significant early-season issues highlighted by an alarming 11% K-rate and extremely low 4.6% swinging strike rate. Palyo also flagged Vasquez's 100% Z-contact%, meaning he hasn't elicited a single whiff in the strike zone this season, further indicating he's struggling severely to fool hitters. Additionally, Vasquez's 20% walk rate combined with a hot young A's lineup that torched Padres' better pitchers lately, call for significant caution. The pitcher-friendly aspect of Oakland's stadium has surprisingly benefited hitters so far, intensifying the argument against Vasquez tonight.

Michael Savio expects Randy Vasquez's road struggles from 2024, where he went 3-4 with a woeful 6.07 ERA, to continue as he faces the Cubs in Chicago. Vasquez looked sharp in his first start at home, but Savio emphasizes that Vasquez is far from a proven commodity and was notably weak on the road last season. Given that the Cubs are starting red-hot ace Shota Imanaga, who has been exceptional with just one run allowed over 11 innings against strong offenses (Dodgers and D-backs), Savio believes the Padres will suffer their first loss of the season, making the Cubs moneyline at +143 a strong betting angle.