Malcolm Bamford went the other way, taking Philadelphia at ‑115 because the price gap is too small for how the two pitchers are trending. Strider has delivered back-to-back average outings and carries two straight losses, so Bamford prefers to keep fading him until he proves the stuff is truly back. Ranger Suarez has thrown scoreless ball in two of his past three starts and the Phillies are 9-1 over the last ten overall. Bamford believes the only reason this isn’t ‑135 or higher is the Strider name on the ticket; he’s happy to exploit that perception gap and back a red-hot Philly lineup in front of a charged home crowd.

Kenny G is backing the Phillies at –115 with Ranger Suarez starting. Suarez is 3-0 with a 3.70 ERA and is coming off 6⅔ scoreless innings against Colorado, looking like he has fully shaken off his Opening Day blow-up versus Arizona. Meanwhile, Atlanta’s supposed ace Spencer Strider is still searching for form (0-2, 5.79 ERA) and the Braves have lost both of his starts. Atlanta’s lineup is also sputtering—17th in runs and merely league-average in both SLG and OBP—and their road woes continue (9-18 away, 13-12-2 to the under). Philadelphia counters with a top-tier offense: 7th in runs, .261 team AVG (5th), and 8th in SLG, driven by hot bats from Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber (already 18 HR while maintaining a .250+ average). The one soft spot is a 4.61 bullpen ERA, but Kenny thinks Suarez can push deep enough for that to be minimized. He even floated Phillies –1.5 on the alternate run line for those wanting plus money, but his official recommendation is the straight moneyline play given the clear pitching and offensive edge at Citizens Bank Park where Philadelphia is 17-8.

Just A Bet Outside built a same-game parlay at +104 combining Ranger Suarez to record 5-plus strikeouts with a Phillies money-line victory. Suarez has punched out six and five hitters, respectively, in his two 2023 starts while sitting around an 82-pitch workload; the host expects that to creep toward 90 after a full week of rest. The matchup is pristine: Pittsburgh owns the 10th-highest K-rate against lefties over the last three weeks (24.9%), and nine of the 11 southpaws they have seen this season have cleared five strikeouts—David Peterson (7), Kyle Freeland (8), Libor Torres (8) and Matthew Boyd (6) among the recent examples. On the offensive side, Philadelphia is bludgeoning left-handed pitching lately (eighth in wRC+, sixth in slugging during the same span) and draws wild southpaw Andrew Heaney, whose 10 walks in 14.1 road innings have come against the Marlins, Reds and Angels—arguably the softest slate in baseball. With Citizens Bank Park boosting power, the Phillies’ lineup depth, and a shaky Pirates bullpen backing Heaney, the tout projects 6–7 strikeouts for Suarez and a comfortable home win, making the correlated parlay a smarter play than laying –230 on the straight money-line or chasing an alt total.

Eric Lindquist said to fire on Ranger Suarez over 5.5 Ks because the stuff looks fully back after elbow issues limited him last season. Suarez has reached only the mid-80s in pitch count through two turns but already owns a 30% strike-out rate in that tiny sample, and Lindquist expects Rob Thomson to nudge him toward 90–95 pitches Friday. Pittsburgh whiffs at the third-highest clip in baseball (26.8% vs LHP), giving Lindquist a projection of 6.3 strikeouts. With Bet365 and ESPNBet both hanging plus money, he called it his favorite pitching prop of the day and would still bet the over down to –115.

Zola advised giving Ranger Suarez another shot after the left-hander was rocked for 7 ER in 3.2 IP against Arizona earlier in the week. He pointed out Suarez still fanned six in that start and now faces a Guardians lineup with a 24.5% K-rate versus southpaws. Progressive Field plays neutral for power, and Suarez’s projected line (5.7 IP, 2.6 ER, 5.6 K, 51% win odds) lands him inside the top-15 Saturday SPs in ESPN formats.

If Philadelphia’s rain clears, Razzle plans to roster Ranger Suarez. The lefty threw nearly 80 pitches in his final rehab start, and Razzle loves attacking Arizona with southpaws. Suarez’s K-prop is a modest 3.5 (juice to the over), so the tout will also monitor outs props, but the combination of pitch count readiness, platoon edge, and likely sub-15 percent ownership makes him a solid mid-tier play.

Erik Halterman urged fantasy managers to grab Ranger Suarez ahead of his weekend return from back issues. Suarez posted a 3.46 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 23 % K-rate, 6.5 % BB-rate, and 52 % ground-ball rate last season, and he looked dominant on rehab (1.08 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 24 K, 5 BB in 16.2 IP). Halterman reminded listeners that Suarez carried a 1.75 ERA through his first 15 starts of 2023 before the back acted up. The injury history means you can’t bank on volume, but while healthy he offers ratio help, ground-ball suppression, and plenty of win potential on a strong Phillies club.

Kirby is willing to scoop Ranger Suarez ahead of his scheduled Sunday activation, calling him a "serviceable" option who rarely hurts you. She expects his sinker-change combo to keep the ball on the ground (career 55% GB%) and predicts a low-3s ERA ceiling with a middling 20% K-rate. That profile, paired with Philadelphia’s strong bullpen and offense, makes him an ideal injury replacement or streaming SP5 in mixed leagues. Kirby stressed she is not chasing upside here—just safe innings at a time when injuries have thinned rotational depth league-wide.