Guy Boston targets Rob Refsnyder for his debut today, taking under 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs as a good value pick (-115). Despite Refsnyder's decent small-sample record of 3-for-6 with a home run against Orioles pitcher Cade Povich, Guy Boston expects Refsnyder to struggle given the circumstances of his season debut coupled with matchup data. While he hits fastballs well, he notably struggles against secondary pitches including curveballs (43% K rate) and sliders—both key pitches in Povich's arsenal. Guy Boston emphasizes Refsnyder's likely cold start coupled with historical struggles against the Orioles to back this bet, seeing clear betting value here rather than expensive total bases markets.

Bill Harrelson's bonus pick is Rob Refsnyder under 1.5 hits, runs, RBI against Baltimore. Refsnyder has gone below this line in nine of his last ten games, 15 of his last 20 games, and 58% of his games played last season. While Refsnyder has hit over this line in four of his previous six matchups versus Baltimore dating back to last May, sportsbooks strongly back the under, with DraftKings and Sleeper favoring the under, illustrating significant confidence on the betting line.