Eric Lindquist said he is locking in Rowdy Tellez to hit a home run at any number better than +420 for Monday’s slate in Arizona. Lindquist expects Tellez to move up from the 6-spot to the 5-spot if Cal Raleigh slides into the 2-hole, which would give Tellez an extra plate appearance and a higher probability of the one batted-ball event bettors need. He backed the play with underlying metrics—Tellez owns a 48.2% hard-hit rate, .500 expected slugging, and a 17.5-degree launch angle that sits squarely in Lindquist’s preferred HR sweet-spot window. Because Chase Field boosts left-handed power and the line is opening around +420, Lindquist considers anything longer an automatic wager rather than a mere lean.

Eric Lindquist circled Rowdy Tellez as a home-run dart at anything better than +480 against Nationals right-hander Trevor Williams. Lindquist noted that Williams has been shelled by left-handed bats all season—six homers in just 130 lefty plate appearances, a 2.16 WHIP and no put-away pitch—while carrying a meek 17% strikeout rate overall. That lack of swing-and-miss plays directly into Tellez’s profile: the big first baseman owns a 517 expected slugging percentage and 50-plus percent hard-hit rate when he actually makes contact, but his 26.4% K rate usually drags the pricing down. With Seattle’s T-Mobile Park still offering a favorable right-field jet stream for power and Williams leaning on a straight four-seamer/change combo that flattens out versus lefties, Lindquist projected Tellez’s true HR odds closer to +390. He advised locking in the long-ball prop before books adjust and added that bettors uncomfortable with the all-or-nothing swing can ladder down to 2+ total bases at plus money as a secondary angle.

DraftCheat identifies Rowdy Tellez as a strong upside play on today's slate due to his significant power potential from the left side combined with the hitter-friendly dimensions at Cincinnati's Great American Ballpark. Tellez is priced extremely low ($2,100), and while savings aren't critical today, his ability to hit flyballs that become home runs at Cincinnati's small right-center field offers great tournament leverage. DraftCheat notes Tellez does carry swing-and-miss risk, but emphasizes his significant DFS ceiling given the matchup and park.

Stan Son identified Rowdy Tellez as a DFS bargain play due to a prime bounce-back opportunity against right-handed pitcher Kumar Rocker. Tellez has struggled mightily early in the season (.050/.130/.050 with a 30.4% strikeout rate and extremely unlucky .071 BABIP) but has a historically strong .212 ISO vs right-handed pitching. Rocker has performed poorly, sporting a 5.97 FIP and allowing two homers in eight innings this season, particularly struggling against lefties. With Tellez batting left-handed, the matchup aligns ideally for him to break his early-season slump at the attractive salary of just $2,100.