For the third straight start Zerillo is betting on Ryan Gusto, recommending Houston as short home underdogs (available +100) versus Bowden Francis. Gusto sports a 4.02 xERA and 3.69 xFIP through his first MLB turns with metrics that pop: 107 Stuff+, 108 Pitching+, 2.55 botERA. He throws at least six pitches, all grading out favorably after gaining 1 mph on his fastballs and 2 mph on the changeup since Triple‑A. Although Gusto was an 11th‑round afterthought, Zerillo likens his early data to last season’s Spencer Schwellenbach breakout and projects him roughly a half‑run better than Francis, who carries a career 5.09 FIP and sub‑90 Stuff+ profile. With the Astros’ deeper bullpen and plus odds at home, Zerillo sees clear value on Houston’s moneyline and would play them to -103.

Carty’s THE BAT X sees value in UNDER 3.5 Ks for Ryan Gusto at +125. Gusto carries a projected 37.8% ground‑ball rate and faces a Padres lineup with the 5th‑lowest chase rate in MLB. The model gives the prop a 53% hit probability, yielding a +$19.81 expected return on a $100 wager.

Dan Marcus identified Astros pitcher Ryan Gusto ($6,200) as a highly volatile yet intriguing DFS punt play on DraftKings. Marcus pointed to Gusto's strong performances in a challenging pitching environment with Triple-A Sugar Land last season as an indicator of his upside. Facing an Angels offense that he believes has overachieved early in the season makes Gusto a viable boom-or-bust choice at a minimal cost.