Rob Donaldson played Ryan Mountcastle over 1.5 total bases (2.5u) and a homer at +700 (1.5u). He cited MacKenzie Gore’s 44% hard-hit rate and 1.41 HR/9 to righties. Mountcastle carries a .298 ISO and .940 OPS versus left-handers since 2022 and is averaging 96 mph EV over the last week. Rob called +700 ‘criminal’ given Gore’s tendency to miss over the heart of the plate and the warm 78-degree forecast at Camden Yards. He expects at least one 104-mph batted ball from Mountcastle Friday night.

Ryan Wooden pegged Ryan Mountcastle as a +460 HR prop on FanDuel, citing a textbook buy-low setup. Mountcastle owns a career-best 91.5 mph average exit velocity and 52.1% hard-hit rate despite a .581 OPS and only two homers so far. The righty masher carries an .821 career OPS and .488 SLG versus left-handed pitching and faces Angels southpaw Tyler Anderson, who sports a shiny 2.68 ERA but has already allowed seven homers in 40⅓ innings (1.6 HR/9). Wooden expects Mountcastle’s underlying power metrics to normalize against a pitcher he profiles well against, completing SportsLine’s three-leg Sunday long-ball card.

Joe Pisapia recommended wagering Ryan Mountcastle to record an RBI at +170 despite the first baseman’s cold April. Mountcastle owns a 1.400 OPS in 22 career at-bats against Michael Wacha, including multiple extra-base hits, and Wacha’s 13.6% strikeout rate leaves plenty of balls in play. With the Orioles implied for five runs in Kauffman Stadium and Mountcastle likely hitting fifth behind Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, Pisapia believes the plus-money offers a rare buy-low window on a pure batter-vs-pitcher edge.

Guy Boston advised playing Ryan Mountcastle UNDER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI at –105 on BetMGM. Mountcastle has stayed under this line in ten straight games and has not recorded a single hit in his last five. On the season he has cashed the under in 18 of 26 outings (69 % hit rate) while averaging just 1.27 combined H/R/RBI. Against the Yankees he is under in 9 of his last 14 meetings despite one blow-up game last June that pads his averages. The matchup is a left-on-right draw with Carlos Rodon: Mountcastle is hitting only .179 with a 43.5 wRC+ versus lefties, while Rodon is holding right-handed bats to a .138 average and a .244 wOBA with a 2.89 ERA. Even though Mountcastle owns three hits in five career plate appearances off Rodon, the tiny sample is outweighed by his current slump and the pitcher’s dominant splits, making the under the preferred side.

Guy Boston suggested playing the UNDER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs for Ryan Mountcastle at ‑105 (BetMGM). The first baseman has stayed under in 7 of his last 10 contests, averaging only 1.2 HRRBI, and has four straight unders entering tonight. Season‑long he is 12‑of‑20 (60 %) to the under with a 1.6 average. Mountcastle’s splits deteriorate vs RHP (.224 AVG, 74.5 wRC+) compared to overall (.242 / 82.3). He draws right‑hander Trevor Williams, whose overall numbers are shaky (5.95 ERA, .325 AVG allowed) but who owns elite splits against righties this year: 3.27 ERA, .167 AVG, .174 wOBA across 38 batters. Mountcastle is 0‑for‑2 lifetime vs Williams with a 50 % K‑rate, and he produced a goose egg in last night’s opener. With both recent form and pitcher splits aligning, Guy Boston believes fading Mountcastle is a strong value play.

Kyle Purviance strongly suggests betting on Ryan Mountcastle's total bases, highlighting his substantial batter-pitcher success against Michael Wacha. Mountcastle is hitting .421 (8-for-19) lifetime vs Wacha with considerable power, including three home runs. Purviance stresses Mountcastle’s exceptional historical performance as the best statistical batter vs pitcher matchup of the slate, indicating very strong confidence in this particular player prop for total bases.