Kenny G called Arizona a near "lock of the day" at -190 with Ryne Nelson (6-3, 3.46 ERA) taking on the league-worst Rockies. Colorado is 16-42 at Coors Field, owns the majors’ worst OBP and second-fewest runs, and sends out Chase Dollander (2-9, 6.35 ERA) plus what Kenny labeled "maybe the worst bullpen in the majors." Although Nelson is coming off a rough outing (5 ⅓ IP, 5 ER vs Texas), the Diamondbacks remain sixth in runs and second in slugging, and Kenny expects them to bounce back offensively after Friday’s 4-3 loss. Given the talent gap on the mound, in the bullpen, and at the plate, he’s comfortable laying the hefty price.

Bill Harrelson backed Ryne Nelson to stay below 2.5 earned runs allowed in Arlington. Although Nelson surrendered four runs to Texas last season, 2025 has been a different story: he has held opponents under this number in 12 of 14 starts (86%), including four straight and nine of his last ten. In his last 20 appearances he is 17-3 to the under, and advanced metrics place him in the top 10–15% of MLB pitchers this year. The spot is ideal because the Rangers rank bottom-five against right-handed pitching, slashing just .234 on the season and .223 over their last 30 games. Nelson averages 5.2 innings per outing— plenty of leash to post a quality start— and Sleeper as well as other books have already juiced the under. Harrelson called it his favorite play of the day.

Kenny G advised backing the Diamondbacks at -120 with Ryne Nelson on the mound. Nelson owns a 3.52 ERA and Arizona is 4-1 in his last five starts, including six shut-out frames against St. Louis his last time out. He also blanked Pittsburgh over 6⅔ innings in late May. On the other side, Mike Burrows carries a 4.70 ERA and the Pirates have dropped four of his last five outings; when he faced Arizona earlier this year he surrendered five runs in 3⅓ innings. Kenny highlighted how the Pirates offense remains dead-last in MLB in both runs scored and slugging despite a recent sweep of Detroit, while the Diamondbacks still rank fourth in runs and ninth in batting average. Pittsburgh’s bullpen (3.93 ERA) is merely average and Arizona’s relief issues are mitigated by the massive starting-pitcher edge. With the motivation of climbing back to .500 after being swept by Houston and a short -120 price, Kenny labeled the D-backs his preferred side.

At near-pick’em odds (-105), Bamford sided with Arizona because Ryne Nelson has quietly authored a 2.17 ERA in five Chase Field starts, while the club plays better than .500 ball when he takes the hill. Opposing him is Sonny Gray, whose 4.57 road ERA fits a long-standing home/away split that makes him far less intimidating outside Busch Stadium. Bamford sees Nelson’s home dominance, supported by an offense that handles right-handed pitching, outweighing Gray’s name value and tips the desert club to cash.

Lonte Smith is on Arizona -130 and the Under 8.5 because Ryne Nelson has morphed into a reliable home arm while Michael Wacha is trending the opposite direction. Nelson owns a sparkling 2.33 ERA at Chase Field and has allowed just two total runs in his last four home starts (four earned in his last four overall). Wacha’s pitch-to-contact approach is catching up to him: he has yielded at least three earned in four of five, surrendering 17 hits over his last 11 innings. Kansas City’s offense has produced two runs or fewer in five of its past eight games, and Smith fears their bullpen can’t protect a lead even if Wacha keeps it close. He projects a 4-2 Diamondbacks win.

Malcom Bamford opted for an Arizona team-total OVER rather than a side because he believes Sean Burke’s surface numbers are masking red-flag underlying metrics. Bamford noted that most of Burke’s Statcast profile is bright red— hard-hit rate, barrel rate, expected ERA— indicating looming regression. The Diamondbacks have averaged 5.4 runs per game in June, second-best in MLB, and Miguel Vargas owns a .421 average with runners in scoring position since being recalled. Bamford also defended Ryne Nelson, arguing his bloated road ERA is the product of just two blow-ups; aside from those, Nelson has delivered quality work. He envisions a 6–4 or 7–5 type shootout that still allows Lonte’s White Sox first-five bet to cash while Arizona clears its team-total number.

Kenny G "still likes" Arizona at -160 despite a couple of injury concerns because the matchup is so lopsided. Ryne Nelson owns a 3.88 ERA and is coming off strong outings against Toronto and San Diego, while Chicago is planning a full bullpen game with Jordan Leisure opening. The White Sox relief corps sits at 4.25 ERA and will have to cover 27 outs for a club that is 25-54 overall and dead-last in batting average. Arizona’s offense has erupted for 10, 2, 5, 14 and 9 runs its last five games and ranks third in MLB scoring, although Kenny cautioned that injuries to Suarez and Naylor could slightly dampen the ceiling. Even so, he views the matchup against MLB’s 28th-ranked offense as decisive: "When you suck this bad you get shut out sometimes," he quipped about Chicago’s bats. With the D-backs 19-20 on the road and the Sox 16-21 at home, Kenny doesn’t see a big enough home-field bump to offset the starting pitching and lineup gap, making -160 an acceptable lay.

Razzle’s final dart is Ryne Nelson. He tossed a solid outing against the Dodgers and should be built up to the low-80s in pitches. Facing a depleted Rangers offense without Corey Seager and J.P. Peterson, Nelson’s path to 5+ innings and a handful of strikeouts is viable. Salary relief plus win equity at home keeps him on Razzle’s MME list.

Jenstad pegged Ryne Nelson as a sneaky Week-ahead add because Arizona lines him up for Pittsburgh and potentially Washington. Nelson just limited the Dodgers to one run over five innings at Chavez Ravine, showing improved control (1 walk) while sitting 95 mph. The downside is an 8 % swinging-strike rate that leaves little margin for error, but Jenstad likes the floor against a Pirates team bottom-five in OPS versus righties. If Eduardo Rodriguez returns and bumps Nelson to a single start, it’s still the better half of the matchup grid; with two, Nelson jumps to must-stream territory in 12-team leagues.

Razzle said he has zero DFS interest in Ryne Nelson on the 5/20 main slate because the right-hander has to face the Dodgers in Dodger Stadium. Nelson’s limited strikeout ceiling offers no way to compete with the premium arms Razzle is narrowing his pitcher pool to, and the matchup leaves little win equity or run-prevention upside. With enough viable alternatives to trim the pool to seven—possibly even five—Razzle is excluding Nelson from all formats.