Lonte Smith is on Arizona -130 and the Under 8.5 because Ryne Nelson has morphed into a reliable home arm while Michael Wacha is trending the opposite direction. Nelson owns a sparkling 2.33 ERA at Chase Field and has allowed just two total runs in his last four home starts (four earned in his last four overall). Wacha’s pitch-to-contact approach is catching up to him: he has yielded at least three earned in four of five, surrendering 17 hits over his last 11 innings. Kansas City’s offense has produced two runs or fewer in five of its past eight games, and Smith fears their bullpen can’t protect a lead even if Wacha keeps it close. He projects a 4-2 Diamondbacks win.

Malcom Bamford opted for an Arizona team-total OVER rather than a side because he believes Sean Burke’s surface numbers are masking red-flag underlying metrics. Bamford noted that most of Burke’s Statcast profile is bright red— hard-hit rate, barrel rate, expected ERA— indicating looming regression. The Diamondbacks have averaged 5.4 runs per game in June, second-best in MLB, and Miguel Vargas owns a .421 average with runners in scoring position since being recalled. Bamford also defended Ryne Nelson, arguing his bloated road ERA is the product of just two blow-ups; aside from those, Nelson has delivered quality work. He envisions a 6–4 or 7–5 type shootout that still allows Lonte’s White Sox first-five bet to cash while Arizona clears its team-total number.

Kenny G "still likes" Arizona at -160 despite a couple of injury concerns because the matchup is so lopsided. Ryne Nelson owns a 3.88 ERA and is coming off strong outings against Toronto and San Diego, while Chicago is planning a full bullpen game with Jordan Leisure opening. The White Sox relief corps sits at 4.25 ERA and will have to cover 27 outs for a club that is 25-54 overall and dead-last in batting average. Arizona’s offense has erupted for 10, 2, 5, 14 and 9 runs its last five games and ranks third in MLB scoring, although Kenny cautioned that injuries to Suarez and Naylor could slightly dampen the ceiling. Even so, he views the matchup against MLB’s 28th-ranked offense as decisive: "When you suck this bad you get shut out sometimes," he quipped about Chicago’s bats. With the D-backs 19-20 on the road and the Sox 16-21 at home, Kenny doesn’t see a big enough home-field bump to offset the starting pitching and lineup gap, making -160 an acceptable lay.

Razzle’s final dart is Ryne Nelson. He tossed a solid outing against the Dodgers and should be built up to the low-80s in pitches. Facing a depleted Rangers offense without Corey Seager and J.P. Peterson, Nelson’s path to 5+ innings and a handful of strikeouts is viable. Salary relief plus win equity at home keeps him on Razzle’s MME list.

Jenstad pegged Ryne Nelson as a sneaky Week-ahead add because Arizona lines him up for Pittsburgh and potentially Washington. Nelson just limited the Dodgers to one run over five innings at Chavez Ravine, showing improved control (1 walk) while sitting 95 mph. The downside is an 8 % swinging-strike rate that leaves little margin for error, but Jenstad likes the floor against a Pirates team bottom-five in OPS versus righties. If Eduardo Rodriguez returns and bumps Nelson to a single start, it’s still the better half of the matchup grid; with two, Nelson jumps to must-stream territory in 12-team leagues.

Razzle said he has zero DFS interest in Ryne Nelson on the 5/20 main slate because the right-hander has to face the Dodgers in Dodger Stadium. Nelson’s limited strikeout ceiling offers no way to compete with the premium arms Razzle is narrowing his pitcher pool to, and the matchup leaves little win equity or run-prevention upside. With enough viable alternatives to trim the pool to seven—possibly even five—Razzle is excluding Nelson from all formats.