Just A Bet Outside called Sean Manaea a worthwhile strike-out prop play against Philadelphia. The Phillies carry the ninth-highest strike-out rate versus lefties during the last three weeks, nearly matching the Mets’ whiff profile. Manaea has collected 45 strike-outs in only 36.2 innings this season and 15 punch-outs in his most recent 9.2 frames against Seattle and Washington. His road K-rate (32 %) dwarfs his 25 % mark at Citi Field, and his righty/lefty splits are virtually identical, so the matchup projects well regardless of the Phillies’ handedness mix.

Just A Bet Outside said Sean Manaea’s strikeout prop is worth attacking on Thursday. Washington owns the fifth-highest K-rate versus left-handed pitching over the past three weeks (24.2%), and Manaea has punched out more than a batter per inning with at least five strikeouts in five of his seven starts this season. Stephen added that Manaea’s strikeout rate actually climbs to 30.2% on the road and that most of the Nationals’ projected lineup swings from the right side, where Manaea’s whiff rate is slightly stronger. All of that pushes him toward the over on Manaea’s strikeout line.

Guy Boston Sports leaned Mets moneyline at any pick-em price and paired it with the full-game OVER. His case: Ryan Berger relies on a fastball/slider combo, and New York ranks ninth against heaters over the last 30 days while scoring 3-7-3-6-8-2-5 runs in its past seven. Manaea has looked sharp in limited action, but San Diego grades as one of MLB’s best lineups versus lefties, so he doubts a clean shutdown. The Mets average 4.4 runs on the road compared with San Diego’s 4.18 at Petco, giving New York the consistency edge against the Padres’ wildly volatile outputs (nine runs one night, zero the next). He projects a 4-4 type game that New York wins late, recommending Mets ML and an OVER 8 if it appears.

Just A Bet Outside suggested taking the Mets behind Sean Manaea if Yu Darvish indeed gets the ball for San Diego. Manaea has allowed exactly one earned run in all three of his 2024 starts and stretched to 82 pitches last time out, signaling he is ready for a full workload. Darvish, on the other hand, was blasted for eight hits and eight earned in just 3.1 innings at St. Louis and owns a 7.71 ERA through four appearances, giving up 2.2 HR/9. Steven thinks the Padres will be cautious with Darvish’s pitch count, opening the door to their mediocre middle relief. He likes the Mets money-line and would consider Manaea outs-recorded props, projecting 5–6 strong innings from the left-hander against a San Diego lineup striking out 26% versus southpaws this month.

Scott Reichel targeted the first-five run line on the Mets, pricing New York around –190 full game and preferring the –0.5 (or even –1.5) in the opening five frames. Sean Manaea has given the Mets 11 solid innings since rejoining the rotation, allowing one earned run in each start while posting a 12/3 K-BB ratio. Reichel expects manager Carlos Mendoza to let him stretch to five after back-to-back four-inning stints. The matchup is ideal: the Angels sit bottom-five in wRC+ versus left-handed pitching, and Tuesday projects as a bullpen day for L.A., whose relief corps owns the third-worst ERA in baseball. He also noted the emotional jolt of Monday’s comeback win and Citi Field’s strong home-field splits (Mets well over .500 at home). With New York’s lineup finally showing life and L.A.’s arms in disarray, Reichel sees the Mets jumping out early and cashing the first-five run line before either bullpen becomes a factor.

Eric Lindquist highlights Sean Manaea as positioned favorably tonight thanks to the frigid conditions and wind blowing strongly in at Wrigley Field. Lindquist emphasizes weather conditions greatly impacting scoring at Wrigley are a primary consideration. He notes that Randy Vasquez, also pitching tonight, looked effective in his first outing with an exceptional 18.8% hard-hit rate allowed. But it is Manaea specifically who Lindquist expects to thrive in tonight's harsh conditions, creating a promising scenario for pitching success.