Kenny G sees great value in taking the Kansas City Royals at plus 115 as road underdogs against the Yankees. His optimism revolves around Seth Lugo, who has rebounded impressively from an initial shaky outing to produce solid performances against Baltimore and Minnesota. He contrasted Lugo favorably against Yankees' starter Carlos Carrasco, who at 38 years old is struggling early this season with a hefty 7.71 ERA. Carrasco recently gave up four runs in 4.1 innings against Detroit during a 5-0 Yankees loss. Kenny is further concerned about the Yankees' fading offensive output after their explosive early-season numbers started appearing misleading, heavily inflated due to a handful of high-scoring games. Despite being ranked second in MLB runs scored, the Yankees managed just four, eight, and one runs in their last series against the Giants. With Lugo pitching well and New York's offense in questionable form, Kenny suggests riding the underdog Royals in this matchup and leaning slightly towards the under on the 8.5 total.

Daniel Kohn detailed Seth Lugo's solid overall performance to start the year and highlighted his impressive track record when facing the Yankees. Lugo holds a 5-2 record combined with a sharp 2.55 ERA through 14 appearances (four starts), showcasing notable success against the New York lineup historically. Lugo's consistent performance against this team may indicate betting value on his pitching props or performance metrics for fantasy lineups. In his previous outing, he allowed just two earned runs with six strikeouts through 5.2 innings against Minnesota, suggesting he's in fine form heading into this matchup.

Guy Boston liked Seth Lugo's under 5.5 hits allowed prop, despite laying some juice at -150 odds. Lugo has successfully cashed this under in both starts this season, averaging just 4.5 hits allowed per game. Over the full 2024 season, Lugo hit this under at a solid 54% rate (19 of 35) averaging only 5.26 hits per game. Guy Boston acknowledged concern with Lugo allowing nine hits against these Twins in their last head-to-head appearance, but pointed out Lugo historically excelled pitching at home, allowing fewer than six hits in four of his last five home starts and averaging just 4.4 hits allowed during that stretch. Moreover, this season Minnesota ranks bottom five offensively in hits per game, barely topping six hits on average, indicating an easier matchup for Lugo to cash the under again today.

Kenny G sees value in taking the Royals as small home favorites (-115) against Minnesota, highlighting Seth Lugo's steady pitching through two outings (1-0, 3.27 ERA). He acknowledged Lugo had some trouble against Cleveland (three earned runs in five innings) but praised his strong outing against Baltimore (six innings, one earned run). Kenny also pointed to Minnesota's ongoing offensive struggles (ranked 28th in batting average and slugging percentage), as well as a Royals offense gradually improving (13th in batting average). He was slightly cautious about trusting the Royals for a sweep scenario, but sees Lugo's stable presence as reason enough to back Kansas City here.

Eric Lindquist expresses consistent skepticism toward Seth Lugo due to his persistent issues with fly ball contact. He highlights Lugo's unimpressive profile at age 35, despite a career-best 3.75 expected ERA last year, calling it an anomaly in an otherwise declining performance trajectory. Lindquist recalls that Lugo showed elite form briefly in 2019 with a 2.43 expected ERA, but since then has underwhelmed. He firmly recommends taking the Baltimore Orioles money line, pointing out that the Orioles' lineup strength will be improved with the anticipated return of Gunnar Henderson, making Lugo someone to fade strongly tonight.

Drew Martin recommended betting against Kansas City Royals pitcher Seth Lugo primarily due to noticeable velocity reduction. Lugo previously threw 95 mph but recently clocked in at just 92 mph. Combine that alarming velocity drop with Lugo's past struggles against the Orioles—giving up nine hits with only one strikeout in five innings last year—makes him a clear fade. While Martin acknowledged Orioles pitcher Dean Kremer recently struggled in his latest start, he emphasized Kremer's low hard-hit rate, suggesting positive regression. Considering Baltimore features a stronger lineup overall, Martin sees clear upside in taking them as underdogs at plus 107.

Lonte Smith recommends betting the first five innings under for the Guardians vs Royals matchup, highlighting Seth Lugo's dominance against the Guardians in recent encounters. Lugo has surrendered just one earned run over 13 innings in his last two matchups against Cleveland. Additionally, Smith points out that Kansas City's lineup is particularly top-heavy, heavily dependent on their top bats for production. Guardians pitcher Gavin Williams, despite a rough season overall (3-10, 4.86 ERA in 2024), notably had a strong 3.56 ERA on the road last year and an excellent 2.25 ERA over 12 innings against the Royals specifically. Due to strong starting pitching trends and struggling offenses on both sides, Smith expects a low-scoring first half and a roughly 2-1 type game after five innings.