Sean Zerillo sees value in backing the White Sox on the first five innings line against Cleveland due to the starting pitching matchup advantage. The White Sox rookie Shane Smith has superior projected metrics (average projected FIP of 4.52) compared to Guardians starter Ben Lively (average projected FIP of 4.8). Smith has one elite pitch—a hard changeup with excellent movement (109 Stuff+), especially effective against left-handed hitters. Although the White Sox's offense is poor (72 wRC+) and their bullpen consistently grades among MLB's worst, Zerillo believes Smith's clear initial pitching edge creates value on Chicago's first five innings moneyline (+135) or spread (+0.5 runs, -112). His projections make the White Sox fair +127 underdogs, creating a profitable opportunity at the market price.

Owen OBrien highlighted 25-year-old pitcher Shane Smith as a potentially undervalued asset for the White Sox in Tuesday's matchup against Cleveland. Smith, the first overall selection in the 2024 Rule 5 Draft, made his MLB debut on Opening Day 2025. Although the White Sox lost that game 8-3 to the Twins, Smith showed promising signs in his first start, surrendering just two runs and two hits over 5.2 innings with three strikeouts. OBrien suggests that Smith’s encouraging debut could indicate hidden betting value for Chicago as significant underdogs (+168 money line) despite their rough start to the season.