Just A Bet Outside emphasized Shohta Imanaga's potential success despite early schedule challenges. Imanaga carried a strong 2.91 ERA as a rookie last season and already performed admirably against two strong offensive clubs, Arizona and the Dodgers, showing early signs of continued excellence. He's once again tasked with a difficult San Diego Padres lineup, but early indicators suggest he's well-equipped to deliver another strong outing. Bettors and fantasy owners should keep tabs on Imanaga as a viable pitcher even in tough matchups as he continues to prove himself.

Guy Boston recommends betting the Cubs first-five moneyline primarily due to Shota Imanaga's excellent historical track record against the Padres lineup, posting 25% strikeout and just a .143 batting average allowed in 44 plate appearances. He emphasizes Imanaga's left-handedness posing additional challenges for the Padres, who notably drop from a top batting lineup against righties to around seventh or eighth facing lefties. Despite one recent subpar start, Imanaga previously dominated San Diego, pitching 7.1 innings allowing just one earned run. Given concerns about Chicago's bullpen, Guy strongly prefers isolating the starting pitching advantage by taking the Cubs on a first-five moneyline around -140.

Adam Burke targets Padres team total Over 1.5 runs in the first five innings (-130), primarily due to worries around Shota Imanaga's declining velocity and recent vulnerability. Burke pointed out that Imanaga lost approximately 2 mph on his fastball in recent colder starts, significantly affecting his effectiveness and resulting in allowing seven barrels in just two outings, including last time against Texas (five earned runs). Burke is particularly concerned about Imanaga's potential health issues, noting his increased workload last season. Facing San Diego, a top-10 offense versus left-handed pitching with elite contact skills (second-lowest strikeout rate), Burke expects the Padres lineup to put early runs on the board.

Andrew Brennan believes Shota Imanaga is an ideal buy-low candidate tonight against the Padres. Despite decreased strikeouts early in the season compared to his impressive rookie year, Imanaga maintains stable underlying metrics, notably his swinging-strike rate. Brennan’s projection model anticipates 5.01 strikeouts, making the current line (Over 4.5 at +116 odds) good value with a realistic implied probability of around 56%, compared to the listed 46.3%.

Guy Boston emphasized support for Shota Imanaga, dismissing recent public doubts and highlighting his past performances this season. Imanaga has excelled against solid lineups, notably throwing seven shutout innings against the Dodgers in his season debut, seven innings allowing one run versus Arizona, and 7.1 innings of one-run ball against San Diego. Boston expects continued dominance from Imanaga against a Rangers lineup with minimal exposure (zero hits in five combined plate appearances against current hitters). He also leans towards the Rangers' team total under (currently set at 1.5 for first five innings at even odds), citing Imanaga's effectiveness and pitch arsenal as main factors.

Joe Osborne strongly endorses betting Shota Imanaga under 1.5 earned runs at plus-140 odds against the Texas Rangers. He highlights Imanaga's stellar start to the season, boasting a minuscule 0.98 ERA and a remarkable 0.71 WHIP across three tough matchups against top-tier teams Dodgers, Padres, and Diamondbacks. Osborne sees this as a repeatable pattern from last year, when Imanaga similarly excelled early, allowing one or fewer earned runs in seven of his first nine starts. Supporting Osborne's bet further is the Rangers' offense, currently ranked a dismal 25th in OPS this season, indicating a sluggish start offensively. Osborne confidently sees significant value on this prop given Imanaga's formidable recent form combined with the Rangers' early offensive struggles.

Jimmy Adams strongly backed Cubs pitcher Shota Imanaga against the Rangers. He highlighted Imanaga's stellar early-season performance, allowing just two runs combined through his initial three starts and pitching seven or more innings in two of those games. Imanaga impressively carries a 4% walk rate from last season, and his WOBA sits at a notably low 279 in 2024. Adams praised Imanaga's arsenal of pitches, consisting primarily of a four-seamer, splitter, and a sweeper, helping him dominate hitters and maintain control. Additionally, he emphasized how hot the Cubs offense has been—leading MLB in runs scored with consistent run production night after night, including recently putting up ten runs in their last game. Given Imanaga's dominance and the Cubs' potent offense, Adams labeled it a confident bet to take Chicago today.

Dan Palyo expects Shota Imanaga to surpass his strikeout prop (over 5.5 Ks), referencing his solid underlying metrics despite a low early-season strikeout rate of 14.7%. With a 13.5% swinging strike percentage and strong chase rates matching top-tier strikeout pitchers like Hunter Brown, Palyo anticipates statistical regression toward better numbers. Imanaga has already faced tough matchups (LAD, SDP, ARI) and has performed decently given the circumstances. Texas holds a 25% strikeout rate against lefties, giving Imanaga a prime opportunity to achieve his typical K-rate and clear the strikeout total.

Greg Peterson sees value betting the Cubs at +106 versus the Diamondbacks, highlighting Cubs pitcher Shota Imanaga's exceptional MLB performance thus far: a sparkling 2.84 ERA with excellent control (8.9 K/9 and just 1.6 BB/9 innings). Arizona's Brandon Pfaadt, meanwhile, has struggled, with consistent issues at home (career 5.56 ERA in Arizona), underlined by last year's troubling bullpen performance (25th in both FIP and ERA). Conclusively, the pitching mismatch clearly favors Chicago.

Scott Reichel recommended backing Shota Imanaga and the Cubs specifically in the first five innings against Arizona. He highlighted opposing starter Brandon Pfaadt's troubling splits, noting Pfaadt had a poor 5.09 ERA at home last season and was significantly worse in night games (5.92 ERA). Scott emphasized confidence with Imanaga, who excelled early in games last year. Scott sees clear betting value given Chicago’s offensive performance from the previous game coupled with Imanaga's reliability early on, suggesting the Cubs first five as ideal compared to full-game bets.