Adam Rosenberg played Slade Cecconi OVER 4.5 hits allowed at –130. Rosenberg noted that Cleveland had to run a surprise bullpen game that bled into extra innings after Luis Ortiz was yanked for a gambling investigation, so Arizona will likely let Cecconi work deeper than usual to protect its own pen. Cecconi has surrendered at least five hits in six of eight outings this year and in two of his last three at home, where his expected ERA sits at 6.01 with a 57.9% hard-hit rate. Detroit’s right-handed bats have been scorching (Handicraft heat-map “all red”) and virtually no one in that lineup is striking out, creating constant ball-in-play pressure. With Cecconi’s pitch count already creeping higher in his last start and the bullpen exhausted, Rosenberg expects five or more knocks before he finally gets the hook.