Jesse Schule recommended betting over 6.5 strikeouts for Sonny Gray as a player prop. Schule highlighted the Pirates' league-worst strikeout issues, currently averaging 10 Ks per game. Gray himself has 13 strikeouts through his first 11 innings this year and historically pitches well against Pittsburgh, whose current lineup only hits .235 with 27 Ks in 81 at-bats against him. Cold weather conditions and a low total at 6.5 runs further suggest a pitcher's advantage.

JD Bets is bullish on Sonny Gray surpassing his 5.5 strikeout mark against the Angels, highlighting Gray's consistent strikeout rates, averaging 7.25 last season and overcoming adversity by recording six strikeouts even while battling food poisoning against the Twins. He acknowledges that Gray can occasionally concede runs but insists Gray reliably records strikeouts regardless of performance in earned runs. Although Los Angeles was roughly bottom-10 in strikeouts last season, JD sees Gray as a trustworthy arm that will get his punchouts, suggesting confidence in the over at the set line of 5.5 strikeouts.

Peter Appel strongly backs Sonny Gray's strikeout prop over for Opening Day against his former team, the Twins. Sonny Gray historically thrives during March and April, boasting a 2.95 ERA in these months and striking out hitters at a career-best rate. Last year, Gray managed a stellar 1.16 ERA with 32 strikeouts in just 23 innings during early-season play. Despite a lackluster spring ERA, his strikeout numbers remained robust (17 Ks in 14.1 IP). He exceeded the projected strikeout total in 24 of 28 starts last year, including 14 of his last 15. Appel further highlights Gray's historical excellence against current Twins hitters, holding them to a mere .152 avg and a high 24.7% strikeout rate, particularly dominating against right-handed hitters, making this a strongly suggested half-unit wager up to -120 odds.

Using THE BAT X projections, Derek Carty recommended betting Sonny Gray to go over 5.5 strikeouts (-140 odds) against the Minnesota Twins. This recommendation hinges on the Twins lineup, projected by the model to carry the fourth-highest strikeout tendency (24.5% underlying K rate) on the day. The bet is given a robust 64% chance of hitting, providing substantial expected value of $14.08.

Adam Burke identifies Sonny Gray as a strong fade candidate, citing concerning reports about pain-killing injections in his flexor tendon from the previous season, leading to noticeable velocity drops through spring. In spring training, Gray allowed 20 runs on 23 hits and 8 HR in just 14.1 innings, suggesting significant health or mechanical issues. Burke specifically targets Twins' hitter Matt Wallner in this matchup due to his elite left-handed hitting splits (.277/.396/.555) against lefties. Burke recommends both a half-unit on Wallner to homer at +450 odds and a safer total bases bet (over 0.5 at -150 odds).

Bryce Hunt recommended taking the under (5.5) on Sonny Gray's strikeout total for his Opening Day matchup against the Minnesota Twins. He cited Gray struggling through spring training with inefficient outings, pitch count concerns (70-80 pitches max), and drops in metrics for key pitches like his sinker and sweeper. Hunt noted Minnesota was among the league's lowest strikeout teams last season and expressed skepticism Gray can sustain last season’s elevated strikeout percentage, projecting fewer innings and needing a strong performance to hit the over as further reasoning.

Bettor Mark recommended fading Sonny Gray and the Cardinals in their game against the Minnesota Twins. He suggested Gray no longer represents the dominance seen in his peak form year as a Cy Young contender, openly questioning how much Gray has left in the tank. Additionally, Mark underscored the Twins' strengthened lineup with the presence of Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa, making Minnesota a very attractive play not only in this single matchup but as a strong overall team in the AL Central.