Kenny G recommended laying the short –158 with St. Louis, arguing Sonny Gray is set for a bounce-back after getting torched in Philadelphia. Gray followed his previous blow-up (vs the Mets) with seven dominant frames against Pittsburgh, and Kenny expects a similar response at home against rookie Keider Montero. St. Louis owns the seventh-highest scoring offense and ranks fourth in batting average, a profile that should pressure a Tigers bullpen that has been worked hard during the Toronto series and customs travel. Meanwhile Detroit’s lineup is potent overall but just slogged through a 3-game set that produced 9 total runs, and Gray benefits from a Cardinals pen that has shaved its ERA to 3.83. Factor in Detroit’s 16-9 trend to the over on the road (helpful run support for a moneyline favorite) and Kenny feels the price is still short given the superior starter and the Cards’ 15-6 home record.

Mills Young recommended Sonny Gray over 5.5 strikeouts in the opening game of a double-header. Gray has ‘turned his season around,’ cashing this line in 60% of recent starts while posting an 11.1 K/9 and 34% chase rate since mid-April. Young expects a watered-down daytime lineup from the opponent and notes Sports Chat Place’s tools lean to the over.

Kyle Purviance said the best way to attack Phillies–Cardinals Game 2 is backing Sonny Gray in the first five innings at roughly +115. Purviance pointed out that Aaron Nola has looked shaky in three of his last four starts and Philadelphia’s bullpen ranks near the bottom of MLB in ERA, making a full-game Cardinals ticket riskier. By isolating the first five, bettors get Gray—who owns a 2.11 ERA and has allowed just one homer all season—head-to-head with Nola while avoiding St. Louis’s equally dicey late-inning relief. Purviance added that the price is too good to pass up given Gray’s league-leading 29 % strikeout rate and the Cardinals’ recent 7-2 record in his outings.

Guy Boston likes backing Sonny Gray on the first-five run line at Pittsburgh. He acknowledged Gray’s underlying metrics show slight velocity and spin erosion but stressed the matchup overrides those concerns: against the current Pirate roster he owns a 30.2% strikeout rate, 4.2% walk rate, .233 xBA and .288 xwOBA across 96 plate appearances. Pittsburgh’s offense ranks near the bottom of MLB and mustered just one run Tuesday. Gray tossed 5 IP/1 ER against them earlier this year, and St. Louis has won five straight, seven of nine. Because full-game prices sit around –170/–180 and the Cardinals could lose their ninth-inning ABs as the home team, Boston prefers the first-five run line and is also eyeing Gray strikeout props given the historical 30% K-rate.

Razzle called Sonny Gray a "pretty solid play" at an $8,200 salary despite ugly recent box scores. Gray already handled these Pirates once this year and carries the slate’s top strike-out prop at 5.5 with juice to the OVER. His +160 win odds are third-best, and Razzle expects Gray’s home/road splits to normalize – last season he was dramatically better at Busch Stadium. The game total sits at 7.5 (second lowest on the slate, juice to the under) further boosting floor. In short, the skills remain intact and the matchup plus Vegas lines give Gray both strikeout upside and win equity in a price tier that won’t break roster construction.

Jim Turvey said to play Sonny Gray under 5.5 strikeouts at -105. He pointed out that Gray’s strikeout rate has fallen from last year’s career-best 30% back to 24%, right in line with his historical baseline. Supporting metrics are all sliding: swinging-strike rate down to 12.1% (13.4% in 2023), O-Swing down three points, Stuff+ down to 96 and Location+ down to 96. Turvey called 2023 an outlier season and expects continued mean reversion. The Mets own a bottom-10 strikeout rate, and they just saw Gray two weeks ago—six punch-outs in an outing that required a season-high 102 pitches. With the market still weighing 2023 too heavily, Turvey likes the near-even-money price on the under.

Razzle leaned toward excluding Sonny Gray from his GPP pool even though the same 7.5 total that props up Severino technically puts Gray “in play.” Gray’s earlier start against the Mets was merely “solid,” and Razzle noted that the right-hander offers limited ceiling: his strikeout prop is projected to open south of 5.0 and St. Louis is actually a +105 underdog, capping win bonus probability. With deeper, higher-K options available in the $9K range, Razzle sees Gray’s likely six-inning, four-strikeout line topping out around 16–18 DK points—insufficient for large-field tournament leverage. He advised keeping Gray as a single-entry contrarian piece only if weather or ownership projections dramatically shift.

Eric Polzin advised taking Sonny Gray UNDER 32.5 pitching fantasy points on PrizePicks. Gray has been shelled by the current Mets roster: 99 batters faced, 29 hits, 7 homers, 9 RBI, 13 walks and just 20 strikeouts – a .293 opponent average. Market‐wide projections give only a 51.7% chance he clears the number, and Underdog posts a much tighter 30-point line, confirming the PP number is high. St. Louis enters as 1.5-run underdogs in a game with a modest total, making a quality start or a win (worth bonus points) unlikely. Polzin called the combination of Gray’s poor form, historical struggles, and the cross-site line gap one of the best edges on Friday’s slate.

JD Bets hammered Sonny Gray OVER 4.5 hits allowed against the Mets. New York has long had Gray’s number, posting gaudy batting lines in nearly every historical matchup and running his strikeout rate to near zero in several appearances. When the clubs met on April 20, the Mets tagged him for six hits, continuing a trend of at least six knocks in two straight versus this lineup. Statcast shows hard-hit rates pushing 45% during that stretch, and Gray’s ERA has ballooned from 1.03 to 3.56 over his last five starts. The prop re-opened at 4.5 despite those red flags; JD expects a minimum of five safeties and noted that the Mets rank top-10 in contact rate while the Cardinals’ bullpen has been taxed, making it likely Gray faces an extra trip through the order.

Greg Peterson advised grabbing the Cardinals’ run line at +140 with Sonny Gray opposite Quinn Priester. Peterson pointed out Priester’s shaky 5.8 walks per nine and modest 7.1 K/9, predicting the free passes will turn into crooked numbers against a St. Louis lineup that finally has Brendan Donovan, Nolan Arenado and Jordan Walker stringing hits together. Gray owns a home ERA roughly two full runs lower than his road mark since joining the Cards and draws a Milwaukee order that still leans on Christian Yelich and a collection of sub-.220 bats at the bottom. Both bullpens rank bottom-six in ERA, so Peterson prefers the full-game angle and also played the over 7.5 after making the total 8.2. But the flagship play is St. Louis -1.5 at anything +130 or better.

Kenny G advised laying the –160 with St. Louis behind Sonny Gray. Gray is 3-0 with a 3.41 ERA, has dominated in four of five starts (including 6 shutout frames vs Houston), and gets a Milwaukee lineup that has produced just 2, 5, 2, 11 and 2 runs its last five while falling to 23rd in slugging. The Brewers counter with rookie Quinn Priester (1.93 ERA) but he rarely works deep, handing games to a bullpen that owns a brutal 5.13 ERA. Offensively the Cardinals are eighth in runs, second in batting average and sixth in slugging (.400+), and they are 8-4 at Busch Stadium compared to Milwaukee’s 4-9 road mark. With the superior starter, hotter bats and home-field advantage, Kenny considers the Cardinals ML a “relatively live” play that should cash more often than the –160 price suggests.

Marcus recommended Sonny Gray ($9,300) for those chasing ceiling over floor. Gray’s 29.6% K rate tops the realistic spend-ups on the slate, and his underlying Stuff+ has jumped nine points year over year. The surface stats lag because of an unlucky .358 BABIP, but the underlying 2.86 SIERA suggests positive regression. Milwaukee is the most targetable opponent on the board, striking out at a league-high 27.5% clip versus right-handers and sitting 28th in ISO. Gray should face 6+ lefties, against whom he wields a career 30% K rate thanks to his sweeper. Marcus views him as the slate’s highest raw-ceiling arm.

Cash Out Sports Picks encouraged betting on the St. Louis Cardinals to cover the spread (+1.5) against the Houston Astros, primarily due to the Cardinals' recent strength in pitching and run-line performance. The Cardinals covered the run line in three of their last five games, including strong matchups against the Phillies. Astros pitcher Framber Valdez presents a challenging opponent, but the Astros themselves have struggled against the run line recently, failing in five of their past six games after a win. With Sonny Gray, who pitched impressively in his last start, taking the mound for St. Louis alongside bullpen strength allowing just 0.16 HR per nine innings, the Cardinals are positioned to perform well enough to cover as underdogs.

Greg Peterson recommends betting the Cardinals money line at +104 due to Sonny Gray's significant home-road splits. Gray, acquired by the Cardinals last year, thrives at home accumulating a stellar 3.10 ERA and limiting the long ball effectively (0.7 HR per 9 innings allowed at home), yet struggles considerably on the road (4.98 ERA). Opponent Framber Valdez has shown command issues early in 2025 with seven walks allowed through three starts and metrics suggest looming regression from his current ERA (2.50 ERA versus a 3.60 FIP). With the Astros offense still sputtering below four runs per game, Peterson sees St. Louis as having distinct value in this matchup.

Jesse Schule recommended betting over 6.5 strikeouts for Sonny Gray as a player prop. Schule highlighted the Pirates' league-worst strikeout issues, currently averaging 10 Ks per game. Gray himself has 13 strikeouts through his first 11 innings this year and historically pitches well against Pittsburgh, whose current lineup only hits .235 with 27 Ks in 81 at-bats against him. Cold weather conditions and a low total at 6.5 runs further suggest a pitcher's advantage.

JD Bets is bullish on Sonny Gray surpassing his 5.5 strikeout mark against the Angels, highlighting Gray's consistent strikeout rates, averaging 7.25 last season and overcoming adversity by recording six strikeouts even while battling food poisoning against the Twins. He acknowledges that Gray can occasionally concede runs but insists Gray reliably records strikeouts regardless of performance in earned runs. Although Los Angeles was roughly bottom-10 in strikeouts last season, JD sees Gray as a trustworthy arm that will get his punchouts, suggesting confidence in the over at the set line of 5.5 strikeouts.

Peter Appel strongly backs Sonny Gray's strikeout prop over for Opening Day against his former team, the Twins. Sonny Gray historically thrives during March and April, boasting a 2.95 ERA in these months and striking out hitters at a career-best rate. Last year, Gray managed a stellar 1.16 ERA with 32 strikeouts in just 23 innings during early-season play. Despite a lackluster spring ERA, his strikeout numbers remained robust (17 Ks in 14.1 IP). He exceeded the projected strikeout total in 24 of 28 starts last year, including 14 of his last 15. Appel further highlights Gray's historical excellence against current Twins hitters, holding them to a mere .152 avg and a high 24.7% strikeout rate, particularly dominating against right-handed hitters, making this a strongly suggested half-unit wager up to -120 odds.

Using THE BAT X projections, Derek Carty recommended betting Sonny Gray to go over 5.5 strikeouts (-140 odds) against the Minnesota Twins. This recommendation hinges on the Twins lineup, projected by the model to carry the fourth-highest strikeout tendency (24.5% underlying K rate) on the day. The bet is given a robust 64% chance of hitting, providing substantial expected value of $14.08.

Adam Burke identifies Sonny Gray as a strong fade candidate, citing concerning reports about pain-killing injections in his flexor tendon from the previous season, leading to noticeable velocity drops through spring. In spring training, Gray allowed 20 runs on 23 hits and 8 HR in just 14.1 innings, suggesting significant health or mechanical issues. Burke specifically targets Twins' hitter Matt Wallner in this matchup due to his elite left-handed hitting splits (.277/.396/.555) against lefties. Burke recommends both a half-unit on Wallner to homer at +450 odds and a safer total bases bet (over 0.5 at -150 odds).

Bryce Hunt recommended taking the under (5.5) on Sonny Gray's strikeout total for his Opening Day matchup against the Minnesota Twins. He cited Gray struggling through spring training with inefficient outings, pitch count concerns (70-80 pitches max), and drops in metrics for key pitches like his sinker and sweeper. Hunt noted Minnesota was among the league's lowest strikeout teams last season and expressed skepticism Gray can sustain last season’s elevated strikeout percentage, projecting fewer innings and needing a strong performance to hit the over as further reasoning.

Bettor Mark recommended fading Sonny Gray and the Cardinals in their game against the Minnesota Twins. He suggested Gray no longer represents the dominance seen in his peak form year as a Cy Young contender, openly questioning how much Gray has left in the tank. Additionally, Mark underscored the Twins' strengthened lineup with the presence of Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa, making Minnesota a very attractive play not only in this single matchup but as a strong overall team in the AL Central.