Scott Reichel sees value backing rookie pitcher Spencer Arrighetti and the Astros as small underdogs against Minnesota. He praised Arrighetti for performing solidly against a potent Mets lineup during his debut outing. At the same time, Minnesota's Bailey Ober looked dreadful in his first start, surrendering eight runs quickly to the Cardinals. Reichel highlighted Houston's historical trend of hitting better on the road, referencing their recent road production uptick. With these factors, Reichel believes Houston and Arrighetti offer a strong betting edge at plus money odds.

Dan Palyo encourages taking Spencer Arrighetti's over 5.5 strikeouts (-120 FanDuel). Arrighetti impressed in his first start, striking out five Mets hitters over six innings, posting a promising 31.8% CSW%, and showcasing a strong rookie campaign with a 27% K% last year. Palyo cites the Twins lineup as ripe for regression, with a rolling three-year average K rate around 25%. Palyo also pointed to Hunter Brown's recent eight-strikeout performance against Minnesota, indicating Arrighetti can similarly find success here, requiring only six strikeouts to cash in.

Greg Peterson favors the Astros as slight underdogs (+105) against the Twins, largely due to pitcher Spencer Arrighetti's form. Arrighetti closed last season strong with a 3.08 ERA and 10.8 K/9 in his final 14 starts and looked sharp in his 2025 debut, yielding just one run over six innings. Conversely, Minnesota's Bailey Ober struggled mightily in his first start (giving up eight runs while recording only eight outs) and faces an injury-depleted lineup missing Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee. The remaining healthy Twins hitters have also started the season sluggishly.

Lonte Smith views the Astros as significantly undervalued favorites (-125) against Mets pitcher Griffin Canning. Smith emphasizes Canning's severe road struggles from last year—posting an 0-10 record and a notably poor 6.06 ERA away from home. Additionally, Canning has allowed considerable damage historically against Houston's lineup, surrendering 18 hits across just three starts last season. Arrighetti, despite some volatility last year, went through an impressive stretch mid-season where he consistently allowed two or fewer runs over nine straight starts. Given the potentially massive pitching edge combined with Houston’s strong home record, Smith sees clear value in betting the Astros both first-five and full game.

Kyle Purviance expressed optimism in Spencer Arrighetti's potential heading into his start against the Mets, primarily citing Arrighetti’s strong strikeout rate. Purviance sees Arrighetti as an undervalued option early in the year, noting his rapid improvement at the end of the previous season. Drawing historical parallels to pitchers like Tarik Skubal who struggled initially before breaking out into dominance, Purviance indicated a similar trajectory could be in store for Arrighetti, suggesting he is poised to take a significant leap that could translate into DFS or season-long fantasy value.