Fresh off a five-times-on-base game, TJ Friedl owns a .360 OBP along with three homers and eight steals, and Morgan likes him at $2,700. He faces Ronel Blanco, whose shiny 2024 ERA (2.80) masked a 4.14 FIP; in 2025 that FIP has ballooned to 4.91, right in line with his 4.66 career mark. Morgan expects plenty of table-setting and stolen-base opportunities for Friedl against a pitcher due for continued regression.

Guy Boston recommended betting the OVER 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs for TJ Friedl at ‑110 on BetMGM. He noted Friedl has topped this line in 6 of his last 10 with a 2.6 average over that span and owns a 64 % season hit rate (14‑for‑22). Friedl has torched the Marlins historically, clearing in 5 of the past 6 meetings (83 %, 3.67 HRRBI per game) and has exceeded the mark in 4 of his last 5 road starts (3.2 average). The left‑hander is batting .300 with a 103.7 wRC+ versus right‑handers and faces Sandy Alcantara, who is struggling badly against lefties (12.30 ERA, .267 AVG, 2.2 HR/9, .361 wOBA; overall 7.27 ERA). All of that data led Guy Boston to call Friedl a strong plus matchup in Thursday’s early matinee.

JD Bets targeted TJ Friedl to go deep at +1200 in Camden Yards. With a 17‑mph wind blowing out to right‑center and the total already juiced to 9, JD thinks the park plays much smaller than usual. The Reds have been dreadful versus left‑handed pitching overall, but Friedl is the exception, slashing .268 with five hits and four runs in limited left‑on‑left plate appearances this season. Cade Povich’s MLB sample is minuscule, giving JD no reason to fear the matchup. Friedl homered Wednesday and JD likes his pull power to take advantage of the wind tunnel. He considered Baltimore moneyline but ultimately logged the Friedl HR prop as his official play from the game, expecting everyone else in Cincinnati’s order to struggle while Friedl provides the punch.

Data Skrive highlighted TJ Friedl's recent lackluster performance and difficult matchup against the Giants to suggest that Friedl is unlikely to be productive offensively. Friedl's current batting line of .275/.326/.350 includes only one home run, four RBI, and modest run production with a low power profile. With just one hitless at-bat in the previous game against San Francisco (0-for-2, 1 K, 1 BB) and challenging odds (+300 RBI and +1250 for HR), the market clearly projects difficulty for Friedl to produce significant offensive numbers facing Giants starter Landen Roupp at the pitcher-friendly Oracle Park.