Mike Maher pushed back on the earlier optimism around Tomoyuki Sugano, stressing that his recent strikeout bump is at odds with a career-long pitch-to-contact profile. Sugano logged just 111 K over 156 NPP innings in 2024 and even during his 2020 peak never reached a true K-per-inning clip. Maher pointed to a 2.72 ERA that looks great in the box score but is propped up by shaky estimators—his FIP, xFIP, SIERA and xERA all sit north of 4.0 because strikeouts are heavily weighted in those models. The fewer bats he misses, the more ball-in-play variance can burn him. Maher’s plan is to roster Sugano strictly as a streaming piece: start him against soft offenses like the Royals, Marlins or White Sox, and plant him on the bench versus the Dodgers or any top-10 lineup. Until the whiff gains become sustainable, Maher views Sugano as a volatile SP4/5 best used in selective matchups rather than an every-week set-and-forget arm.

Ryan Wormeli spotlighted Tomoyuki Sugano as a sneaky waiver add (38 % Yahoo, 24 % ESPN) now that the veteran import’s strikeout punch is catching up to his sparkling ERA. After recording just 9 strikeouts in his first five MLB outings, Sugano has fanned 17 batters over his last 19⅓ innings, including an eight-K gem versus the Yankees. His walk rate sits in the 92nd percentile at 4.4 %, keeping WHIP in check, and his ERA was sub-3.00 entering Thursday’s start. Wormeli concedes the 3.77 xERA and modest whiff arsenal signal some ERA regression, but believes near-elite control plus league-average K’s turn him into a perfectly serviceable SP4/streamer. He suggested adding Sugano wherever managers need innings, especially in quality-start leagues where his efficiency gives a higher floor.

Vreeland advised betting a first-inning shutout in Royals vs Orioles, banking on both starters’ form. Tomoyuki Sugano enters with a 3.00 ERA and is fresh off his best MLB outing—a five-inning, eight-strikeout blanking of the Yankees. Kansas City owns the league’s worst home-run rate (30th in dingers per game), so if Sugano keeps the ball in the yard Vreeland expects three quick outs. On the flip side, Kris Bubic sports a sparkling 2.25 ERA and has held foes under three earned in five of six starts. Baltimore’s offense ranks 18th at just 4.0 runs per game, giving Bubic a soft landing in the bottom half. With both pitchers flashing recent dominance and neither lineup scaring early, Vreeland labeled the NRFI (price TBD) his preferred play.

Peterson would lay up to –110 with the Yankees if Tomoyuki Sugano gets the ball for Baltimore. Sugano has just nine strikeouts in 28 innings (1.8 K/9) and is living dangerously with an 89-mph average exit velocity and six homers allowed, including multi-bomb outings versus Cleveland and Washington. Camden’s deeper left field helps, but facing Aaron Judge (.470 OBP, 7 HR) and a rested Giancarlo Stanton still spells trouble. Peterson docks New York slightly because they played a Sunday doubleheader, yet he trusts a bullpen featuring Luke Weaver, Ian Hamilton, and Tim Hill more than Baltimore’s weary middle relief after the O’s taxed Bryan Baker and Keegan Akin over the weekend. With Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, and Cedric Mullins all banged up, Peterson questions whether Baltimore can match runs. He made the game Yankees –111 and a 9.0 total; he’ll bet New York at –110 or better and play the over at 9 or below, under at 9.5 or higher.

Josephs said he will lay a short price with New York if Monday’s probable reads Tomoyuki Sugano versus Will Warren. Sugano has struck out only nine batters across five starts—just 1.8 per outing—and his pitch-to-contact approach has produced an 89 mph average exit velocity behind a shaky Orioles defense. Combine that with a bullpen taxed by Sunday’s doubleheader and he makes the Yankees roughly –120 despite their own rotation questions. Any plus-money tag on New York is an immediate play in Josephs’ eyes.

Data Skrive recommended strongly against betting the over on Tomoyuki Sugano's strikeout prop of 3.5, urging instead to take the under due to his notably low strikeout average. Sugano has averaged just 1.7 strikeouts per game in 3 appearances this season, dramatically below his set prop line. With the under priced at -160, Sugano's current strikeout form suggests this is a smart bet.

Sean Zerillo advises caution around Orioles pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano despite a strong surface-level 3.86 ERA. Sugano's underlying metrics align poorly with his current ERA, showing projected rest-of-season FIP between 4.79 to 5.08, closer to his advanced indicators like xERA (5.90) and xFIP (5.54). Sugano's command has unexpectedly slipped against MLB hitters, despite previously excellent control (only 2.6% walk rate in Japan last season), likely due to cautious nibbling against Major League competition. Additionally, his Stuff+ rated overall below average (92 Stuff+), with only his slider (109 Stuff+) standing out. Given his struggles to miss bats consistently at the MLB level, Zerillo recommends betting against Sugano for this matchup.

JD Bets emphasized fading unproven MLB pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano making his debut start against the Blue Jays, noting that historically, Toronto features notably strong hitting metrics against right-handed pitchers. JD acknowledged he's 0-3 picking this series and considered the unpredictable outcomes so far but stuck with a general rule of betting against new pitchers—thus recommending Toronto Blue Jays on the moneyline rather than trusting any specific prop bets involving the pitchers.