Kenny G said to lay the -140 with Baltimore because Trevor Rogers is dealing. Over his last five starts Rogers is 4-1, collecting wins over Boston, Seattle, Philadelphia and Colorado, while the lone loss was a 1-0 game in which he worked eight innings of one-run ball. That length mitigates Baltimore’s suspect bullpen, a unit Kenny openly worries about. He called Houston’s recent spike at the plate smoke and mirrors, pointing out the Astros still sit just 18th in runs and 14th in slugging for the season and could ease off the gas with Aragetti on the mound and their playoff spot secure. Kenny expects seven-plus, maybe even a complete game from Rogers and predicted the Astros bats will “pull a disappearing act,” making Orioles -140 his favorite play on the board.

B Wade called Trevor Rogers his favorite play and smashed over 17.5 outs (need 18) at Boston. Rogers has gone at least six full innings in seven straight and nine of 11 starts this season, twice surpassing 100 pitches because Baltimore trusts him deep into games. Wade added that every reliever in the Orioles bullpen has worked the last three days, some for 20-plus pitches, so manager Brandon Hyde ‘needs distance tonight.’ Rogers logged 19 outs in his last meeting with the Red Sox and owns a 2.21 ERA over his past five starts. With the line expected to bump to 18.5, Wade locked the over early at -125.

Drew Martin said the Orioles are his biggest Sunday wager because Trevor Rogers finally looks like the 2021 version of himself. Rogers owns a 2.00 ERA and has surrendered just 13 hits in 22 innings since returning from injury. Baltimore’s bats are scorching (top-5 wRC+ over the last week) while Atlanta’s injury-riddled lineup sits bottom-10 in the same span. Holmes counters with a 3.50 ERA but has dropped four of his last five decisions. Baltimore’s bullpen metrics also grade out better. Martin expects the market to hang a playable number and recommends backing the O’s in the early 11:35 a.m. tilt.

Razzle sees Trevor Rogers as a quality SP2. The lefty just stifled this same Texas offense and now gets them again after a full week of rest. Rogers’ 4.5 K-prop is light given he has cleared that number in two of three outings and faces a Rangers squad missing several right-handed power bats. Razzle expects a 6-inning, 6-strike-out line with win upside at sub-$7K pricing.