The tout flagged Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for props against Nathan Eovaldi after a ridiculous 5-for-7 (.714) history that already includes a homer. Guerrero has collected hits in 22 of his last 26 games, so the combination of sustained form and pitcher ownership makes him a strong over-hits or total-bases play.

Lonte Smith went hunting for long-ball ladders and landed on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to leave the yard—sprinkling the 2+ HR prop as well. Smith loves the environment at an open-roof Tropicana with first-pitch temps near 86° and a steady breeze pushing to right, exactly where Guerrero’s opposite-field power plays. More importantly, Shane Baz’s four-seam has been a launching pad: eight home runs allowed in his last four starts and a .598 SLG against when the wind aids fly balls. Guerrero is heating up (four barrels and a 110-mph max exit velo in the last five games) and owns a .610 xSLG against baz/high-spin fastballs. Smith expects the Jays to keep trending up offensively and called Vlad a live bet for multiple bombs at juicy odds.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is 2-for-3 (.667) off Randy Vasquez and has hits in 17 of his last 19 overall, making him another strong single-prop or parlay cog according to the host.

Guy Boston circled Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over 1.5 hits, runs and RBIs (−120) as his favorite way to attack Ryan Pepiot. Pepiot relies on a four-seam/change/slider mix for 82 % of his pitches, and Guerrero grades out plus vs all three offerings on Boston’s dashboard, posting a .315 AVG and .560 SLG against that exact mix this season. Pepiot’s fly-ball tendencies play into Vlad’s pull-side power in the dome, and Boston added that Toronto’s lineup construction should guarantee RBI chances with Bichette and Horwitz setting the table. Even though he leans to Tampa on the moneyline, Boston views Vlad’s prop as insulated from game result and expects at least a two-stat night in a lower-scoring environment.

The tout listed Vladimir Guerrero Jr. among Tuesday’s best batter props. Guerrero is 4-for-8 (.500) lifetime off Shane Baz and has recorded a hit in 12 of his last 13 contests. With both a strong BvP track record and a red-hot bat, It's The Final Round recommends backing Guerrero to record a hit or clear his total-bases number.

B Wade said Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a clear over on 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs at roughly –119. Wade noted Guerrero has cashed this number in 6 of his last 7, 10 of his last 12, and 14 of his last 20, giving him a 70% season-long hit rate and 80% over the last 10. Guerrero faces Shane Baz, against whom he is 4-for-8 (.500). Wade also pointed out that Guerrero’s home splits are even stronger—he has hit the mark in 7 of his last 8 and 9 of his last 11 at Rogers Centre. Books are implying only a 55% probability; Wade’s model pegs the true chance at 75-80%, creating the positive expected value he wants to attack.

It's The Final Round labeled Vladimir Guerrero Jr. merely a lean versus Jose Soriano. The sinker-heavy right-hander throws that pitch 54% of the time and surrenders a .333 average, while Guerrero has obliterated sinkers this year (.545, 12-for-22). However, Soriano’s second-pitch, a knuckle curve (25% usage), adds uncertainty. Guerrero has not seen that offering in 2024 and owns just a .375 aggregate (6-for-16) against it over the prior two seasons. Because the knuckle curve could neutralize the sinker advantage, the tout is staying cautious and recommends only a small speculative play if betting Guerrero props.

Guy Boston backed Vladimir Guerrero to go over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs at –150 on BetMGM in Wednesday’s matchup with the Angels. Boston pointed out that Guerrero has crushed this line in seven of his last ten (2.5 HRR per game) and 22 of 35 overall this season (63 %, 2.0 HRR per game). The head-to-head numbers versus Los Angeles are even louder: six cashes in the last seven meetings (86 % hit rate, 3.71 HRR average). Recent form aligns as well—Vladdy has exceeded 1.5 HRR in six of his last seven outings, averaging 2.9 during that stretch. Splits favor him, too; he owns a .290 batting average and 149.4 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, both stronger than his season baselines. Opposing starter Yusei Kikuchi is allowing sharp spikes versus right-handed bats—his ERA, batting average allowed, home runs per nine, and wOBA all jump significantly in that split. Although the sample against Kikuchi is only six plate appearances, Guerrero already has two hits off him. Combining Guerrero’s recent surge, dominant history versus the Angels, positive lefty split, and Kikuchi’s righty struggles, Boston called the –150 juice justified and labeled the prop a strong betting play.

It's The Final Round noted Vladimir Guerrero Jr. carries a sizeable 6-for-11 (.546) history against Tyler Anderson and has recorded a hit in nine of his last ten games. With Anderson’s tendency to live in the zone and Guerrero’s elite hard-hit profile, the tout recommends Guerrerro Jr. overs in hits or total bases, with homer upside as a bonus.

Chris Ruffolo targeted Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at +500 to leave the yard. Tanner Bybee has the fourth-highest HR/9 among 20-inning qualifiers (2.5) and faces a hitter who is 3-for-6 with a homer off him already. Guerrero tops Toronto with a 16.2% barrel rate and has four homers despite a slow start, so Ruffolo sees a prime buy-low opportunity against Bybee’s gopher-ball tendencies.

B Wade took Vladimir Guerrero Jr. OVER 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs. Vladdy has hit this prop in four straight, 63% of games overall, and a scorching 71% at home, including six consecutive at Rogers Centre (8 of last 9). Guardians starter Gavin Williams has a 5.10 ERA and 1.50 WHIP, and Guerrero is 1-for-3 lifetime off him. Wade expects the struggling right-hander to provide prime RBI chances for Toronto’s heart-of-the-order anchor.

For his "Beast of the Night" Beermakersfan chose Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who has already popped two homers in his last three games and owns a .397 wOBA and .238 ISO versus southpaws since the start of 2024. Left-hander Logan Allen may look improved but the underlying numbers disagree: 46 % hard-hit allowed this season and last year’s splits of .407 wOBA / .268 ISO to right-handed hitters. Beer bet on those metrics regressing toward 2023 levels, forecasting a deep shot from Vlad and recommending him as the premier spend-up bat on the slate.

Mills Young said to bet Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to record at least one base and sprinkled a home-run ticket as well. Guerrero has cashed this "total bases" number in 6 of his last 10 games (60 % hit rate) and now gets a plus matchup against what Mills dubbed the “Boston Dead Sox” pitching staff. Boston’s staff owns a bottom-ten hard-hit rate allowed over the past two weeks, and Guerrero has a .547 career slugging percentage at Fenway. Mills expects at least one of his three MLB picks to leave the yard, and Guerrero is his favorite candidate.

B Wade likes Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs. Vladdy has cashed this prop in 60 percent of games on the season and in 6 of his last 7 at Rogers Centre, including four straight. He slashes .280 against right-handers and owns a .350 mark (7-for-20) versus Tanner Houck, tonight’s starter, who sports a brutal 7.00-plus ERA and 1.69 WHIP. With a decent 20-AB sample and Houck getting shelled all year, Wade sees Guerrero’s combination of home-park comfort and pitcher history driving this bet.

DiStefano’s third leg in the +350 same-game parlay is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 hits. Guerrero finally belted his second homer of the season Friday and DiStefano expects that breakout swing to carry into Sunday. The slugger owns a 2-for-8 lifetime line off Max Fried, including an extra-base hit, and is one of the few Jays swinging well amid the team’s wider slump. With Fried attacking the zone early in counts, DiStefano anticipates Guerrero getting at least one solid contact opportunity and cashing the single-hit prop.

THE BAT X (Derek Carty) highlighted Vlad Guerrero Jr.’s OVER 0.5 HR prop at +550. The model assigns a 17% home‑run probability, creating a $13.36 expected value. Minute Maid Park grades as the 7th‑best stadium for right‑handed power, and Guerrero’s underlying barrel rate (10.8%) far outpaces his early‑season HR total, suggesting positive regression.

Carty recommends OVER 0.5 HR for Vladimir Guerrero Jr at +525. With the Rogers Centre roof closed, temperature conditions simulate a 5‑degree bump versus outdoor parks, and the venue’s 10th‑shallowest CF dimension plays smaller. THE BAT X assigns a 19% HR probability, good for an $18.88 EV.

MLB analytics expert Derek Carty's projections highlight Vladimir Guerrero Jr's home run prop over 0.5 at impressive +550 odds, estimating a 19% chance of success and a projected +$26.43 expected value. The reasoning is that Guerrero Jr consistently hits fly balls towards center field, and he benefits greatly from facing Atlanta in a stadium featuring the game's 10th-shallowest center-field fences.

Cresswell McCoy sees Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as an ideal selection to break his unusually poor home-run start to the MLB season during today's matchup against the Minnesota Twins. Guerrero has not yet hit a home run this year, a notable anomaly for a star of his caliber, possibly due to the distraction of ongoing contract extension talks. However, Guerrero remains an elite power hitter, and McCoy expects a bounce-back performance today, generating enticing prop betting value.

Mike DiStefano recommends betting on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to go Over 1.5 total bases against Orioles starter Cade Povich. Guerrero has notably excelled against Povich historically, going 4-for-5 lifetime with a home run and two doubles, totaling nine bases. While Povich owns a respectable 3.58 ERA early this season, DiStefano notes his advanced metrics indicate regression is imminent (an expected ERA of 5.46 and an xBA of .326). Toronto also boasts strong metrics against lefties this year (.400 OBP/ .275 BA), making Guerrero a smart pick to accumulate more than 1.5 total bases after hitting the same total six times in his last nine games. DiStefano also notes that Guerrero’s high hard-hit rate (85th percentile) indicates he's due for positive regression after a slow power start and expects the slugger to redeem himself from some mental fielding errors made recently.

It's The Final Round emphasized a highly favorable matchup for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. against Cade Povich. Guerrero Jr. is excellent against Povich's four-seam fastball, batting .317, and incredibly successful against curveballs at .500. Povich has struggled greatly this year, giving up an extremely high batting average of .412 against his primary four-seamer and worse, .429 against his curveball. Historical results underscore Guerrero's dominance against Povich with a remarkable .667 batting average, four hits in six at-bats, including a home run. Vlad is also hot recently, recording hits in nine of his last twelve games, including multiple multi-hit efforts lately. His launch angle metrics align ideally with Povich's tendency of allowing optimal hit conditions, making Guerrero Jr. an exceptional target today.

It's The Final Round strongly recommended Vladimir Guerrero Jr. against Orioles pitcher Cade Povich, who has severely struggled with his pitch arsenal. Guerrero hits .317 off the four-seam fastball, which Povich throws most frequently (45%) while allowing an opponent batting average of .412. Guerrero also handles curveballs (.500 BA), another key pitch Povich struggles with (.429 BA opponent average). Guerrero historically dominates Povich specifically, hitting .667 with a home run in six career at-bats. He is hitting well overall, having recorded hits in nine of his last 12 games, including multiple multi-hit games recently. Povich also struggles to prevent contact in the optimal launch angle range, further supporting Guerrero's case.

Guy Boston advised betting the over 1.5 total bases for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Guerrero has cashed this over in 6 of his last 10 games (60%) and in 7 of 13 games total this year (54%), averaging 1.38 total bases per game. Historically, he dominates Boston, cashing the over in 10 out of his last 13 meetings with the Red Sox, with an impressive 2.13 total bases per game average in these games. The pitching match-up is also very favorable, as he faces pitcher Walker Buehler, who struggled significantly against right-handed hitters last season (4.50 ERA, .282 batting average allowed, .483 slugging). Guerrero has great splits against Buehler's most frequent pitches (fastball and cutter), with very high wOBA rates against both pitches (.413 and .564 respectively), creating a strong projection for Guerrero to surpass this total.

Malcolm Bamford identified Vladimir Guerrero as a fantastic home run play versus struggling Red Sox starter Walker Buehler. Earlier in the podcast, Dylan Rockford highlighted Buehler's major struggles, having allowed at least four runs and seven hits in each of his first two starts while being particularly prone to giving up home runs. Malcolm capitalized on this by suggesting Guerrero—Toronto's highest-profile slugger—as a prime candidate to hit a home run, leveraging Buehler's current poor form and susceptibility to the long ball.

Jon Metler is backing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to break out of his early-season home run drought tonight, attracted sharply by the long +775 odds being offered by BetMGM. Typically trading around +400, Guerrero Jr.'s unusually long odds reflect his slow start without a home run, driving the market price progressively higher. Metler emphasizes that projections still consider Guerrero Jr.'s true odds close to +450, creating tremendous betting value at +775. Guerrero has had decent historical success against Boston starter Tanner Houck, notching five hits including two doubles in 17 career at-bats, though he's not yet homered against him. Additionally, a favorable wind condition blowing out at 10 mph to right field at Fenway Park further bolsters the optimism. Given the massive discrepancy between market odds and projections, Metler eagerly recommends capitalizing on this inflated price.

It's The Final Round considers Vladimir Guerrero Jr. an intriguing option but only listed as a lean against Tanner Houck today. While Guerrero Jr. historically has solid success, hitting .294 with 5 hits in 17 career at-bats against Houck, there are cautious elements limiting confidence. Houck has allowed batting averages of just .268 and .255 against his two primary pitches (sweeper and sinker), which although not spectacular, aren't alarmingly poor either. Guerrero Jr.'s recent data against those pitches this year shows mixed success—hitting just 1-for-5 against the sweeper, but excelling with a 4-for-6 against the sinker. Still, the presence of a rarely used but highly effective split finger (147 opponent batting average) from Houck gives some pause and restrains an outright bullish stance. Guerrero Jr. should be viable in fantasy leagues or DFS lineups, but expectations are tempered compared to more definitive matchups today.

Kyle Purviance sees good betting potential for Vladimir Guerrero's total base or RBI props against Griffin Canning. Citing that the Blue Jays lineup is hitting right-handed pitching well recently and expressing his general negativity toward Canning, whom he is not fond of as a pitcher, Purviance indicated targeting Guerrero specifically as a player likely offering value in associated player prop markets.

It's The Final Round endorsed Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s hitting matchup against Griffin Canning, praising Guerrero's strong historical performance against Canning's pitches. Guerrero has hit .300 or higher against all of Canning's primary pitches, emphasizing how hittable Canning is despite not giving up extremely high batting averages. Guerrero is currently in strong form with hits in six of his last seven games, often getting hits early in games, making him appealing for player prop bets like total bases. He's previously helped cash successful bets, enhancing the confidence in targeting him in this matchup.

Final Round praised Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as a strong play due to his historical success against MacKenzie Gore's pitch mix. Guerrero Jr. has strong track records against each of Gore's common pitches: a .345 average against the four-seam fastball, .350 against curveball, .302 against change-ups, and a hefty .432 against cutters. Gore's arsenal aligns perfectly for Guerrero, as Gore heavily throws his four-seam fastball (56% usage) which opponents are hitting for a .280 average, providing Guerrero Jr. plenty of opportunities to succeed. Guerrero has consistently recorded hits recently, attaining at least one hit in each of his last four games. Historically, Guerrero has also done well directly facing Gore, batting .600 with a home run in five career at-bats.

Brian Howard strongly recommended betting on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to hit a home run against Dean Kramer, citing Vlad Jr.'s exceptional head-to-head history. Guerrero Jr. is 10-for-28 lifetime against Kramer with five of those hits being home runs, making it a highly favorable matchup. Howard considered betting Guerrero Jr.'s two total bases as a safer prop option but preferred the higher payout and better value associated with the home run prop, especially given early-season boosts offered by sportsbooks.

Bettor Mark strongly recommended targeting Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s hits, runs, and RBIs prop versus Dean Kremer, citing Kremer's extreme inconsistency throughout his career. He noted Guerrero's excellent performance in the previous game (2 hits, 1 RBI, totaling 3 combined) as context to justify another strong performance. Mark advised betting the over 1.5 hits, runs, RBIs at -150 odds on DraftKings, mentioning he believes Vlad could even hit the alternative over 2.5 at juicy plus money odds (+123).

Final Round loves Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s matchup today versus Dean Kremer due to a very favorable pitch arsenal matchup. Guerrero Jr. has a strong 432 batting average against cutters, 297 average against sinkers, and excels overall against Kremer's primary pitches. Historically, Guerrero Jr. bats 348 against Kremer with 8 hits in 23 at-bats including a home run over the last three years, further supporting the pick. Even though statistics cited are based on last season's numbers, Final Round emphasized Guerrero Jr. has shown improvement already early in this season, making this matchup even more appealing and reinforcing his confidence in Guerrero Jr. to produce hits today.

Grant Neiffer pinpointed Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s home run prop at +650 as remarkably undervalued. Emphasizing Guerrero's proven elite power, hitting 30 homers last season and 48 four years ago, he argues these odds make little sense. While Guerrero previously displayed perceived home-road splits, last year split evenly with 15 home runs both home and away, indicating no significant disadvantage in Toronto. Facing Zach Eflin of Baltimore presents a near-average matchup at worst, and while Baltimore's bullpen is strong, Neiffer argues Guerrero’s raw power profile and predictable dome environment provide extreme value at current odds. Neiffer called the number 'ridiculous' given Guerrero's consistent power production, advocating strongly that such mispriced value at +650 is an immediate bet without hesitation.

According to THE BAT X projections from Derek Carty, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. holds strong home run potential, projected to have a 19% chance of hitting a homer against the Orioles. Betting the over on his 0.5 HR line (+450 odds) carries positive expected value of $2.96, driven strongly by Guerrero's home-field advantage enhancing his hitting metrics.

Chris Ruffolo is all-in on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to homer on opening day at attractive odds of +550. He highlights Vladie's current contract year scenario, with heavy offseason speculation around whether he was asking for too much money or if the Blue Jays have shortchanged him. Guerrero typically thrives under pressure, and Zach Eflin is considered a weak opponent, someone Ruffolo categorically believes doesn't belong as an opening day starter. Ruffolo expects Guerrero Jr. to emphatically kick off the season, crushing a home run off Eflin to set the tone and justify his contract worthiness.

Joe Orrico strongly backed Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as his favorite AL MVP pick, highlighting Guerrero Jr.'s outstanding statistical profile and entering a pivotal contract year as strong motivational factors. Guerrero Jr. posted a WRC+ of 165 last season and batted .323 with 30 home runs, arguably matching his breakout 2021 season's overall offensive impact. Orrico emphasized Guerrero had baseball's highest expected batting average last season and is essentially a lock for consistent batting average with power upside. Given Guerrero Jr.'s youth at 25 and past runner-up and sixth-place MVP finishes, Orrico considers his odds at +1400 an exceptional value based on Guerrero Jr.'s career trajectory and the likelihood he'll leave Toronto after this deal, amplifying his personal incentive.