It's The Final Round endorsed Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s hitting matchup against Griffin Canning, praising Guerrero's strong historical performance against Canning's pitches. Guerrero has hit .300 or higher against all of Canning's primary pitches, emphasizing how hittable Canning is despite not giving up extremely high batting averages. Guerrero is currently in strong form with hits in six of his last seven games, often getting hits early in games, making him appealing for player prop bets like total bases. He's previously helped cash successful bets, enhancing the confidence in targeting him in this matchup.

Joe Orrico strongly backed Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as his favorite AL MVP pick, highlighting Guerrero Jr.'s outstanding statistical profile and entering a pivotal contract year as strong motivational factors. Guerrero Jr. posted a WRC+ of 165 last season and batted .323 with 30 home runs, arguably matching his breakout 2021 season's overall offensive impact. Orrico emphasized Guerrero had baseball's highest expected batting average last season and is essentially a lock for consistent batting average with power upside. Given Guerrero Jr.'s youth at 25 and past runner-up and sixth-place MVP finishes, Orrico considers his odds at +1400 an exceptional value based on Guerrero Jr.'s career trajectory and the likelihood he'll leave Toronto after this deal, amplifying his personal incentive.

Guy Boston advised betting the over 1.5 total bases for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Guerrero has cashed this over in 6 of his last 10 games (60%) and in 7 of 13 games total this year (54%), averaging 1.38 total bases per game. Historically, he dominates Boston, cashing the over in 10 out of his last 13 meetings with the Red Sox, with an impressive 2.13 total bases per game average in these games. The pitching match-up is also very favorable, as he faces pitcher Walker Buehler, who struggled significantly against right-handed hitters last season (4.50 ERA, .282 batting average allowed, .483 slugging). Guerrero has great splits against Buehler's most frequent pitches (fastball and cutter), with very high wOBA rates against both pitches (.413 and .564 respectively), creating a strong projection for Guerrero to surpass this total.

Malcolm Bamford identified Vladimir Guerrero as a fantastic home run play versus struggling Red Sox starter Walker Buehler. Earlier in the podcast, Dylan Rockford highlighted Buehler's major struggles, having allowed at least four runs and seven hits in each of his first two starts while being particularly prone to giving up home runs. Malcolm capitalized on this by suggesting Guerrero—Toronto's highest-profile slugger—as a prime candidate to hit a home run, leveraging Buehler's current poor form and susceptibility to the long ball.

Jon Metler is backing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to break out of his early-season home run drought tonight, attracted sharply by the long +775 odds being offered by BetMGM. Typically trading around +400, Guerrero Jr.'s unusually long odds reflect his slow start without a home run, driving the market price progressively higher. Metler emphasizes that projections still consider Guerrero Jr.'s true odds close to +450, creating tremendous betting value at +775. Guerrero has had decent historical success against Boston starter Tanner Houck, notching five hits including two doubles in 17 career at-bats, though he's not yet homered against him. Additionally, a favorable wind condition blowing out at 10 mph to right field at Fenway Park further bolsters the optimism. Given the massive discrepancy between market odds and projections, Metler eagerly recommends capitalizing on this inflated price.

It's The Final Round considers Vladimir Guerrero Jr. an intriguing option but only listed as a lean against Tanner Houck today. While Guerrero Jr. historically has solid success, hitting .294 with 5 hits in 17 career at-bats against Houck, there are cautious elements limiting confidence. Houck has allowed batting averages of just .268 and .255 against his two primary pitches (sweeper and sinker), which although not spectacular, aren't alarmingly poor either. Guerrero Jr.'s recent data against those pitches this year shows mixed success—hitting just 1-for-5 against the sweeper, but excelling with a 4-for-6 against the sinker. Still, the presence of a rarely used but highly effective split finger (147 opponent batting average) from Houck gives some pause and restrains an outright bullish stance. Guerrero Jr. should be viable in fantasy leagues or DFS lineups, but expectations are tempered compared to more definitive matchups today.

Kyle Purviance sees good betting potential for Vladimir Guerrero's total base or RBI props against Griffin Canning. Citing that the Blue Jays lineup is hitting right-handed pitching well recently and expressing his general negativity toward Canning, whom he is not fond of as a pitcher, Purviance indicated targeting Guerrero specifically as a player likely offering value in associated player prop markets.

Final Round praised Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as a strong play due to his historical success against MacKenzie Gore's pitch mix. Guerrero Jr. has strong track records against each of Gore's common pitches: a .345 average against the four-seam fastball, .350 against curveball, .302 against change-ups, and a hefty .432 against cutters. Gore's arsenal aligns perfectly for Guerrero, as Gore heavily throws his four-seam fastball (56% usage) which opponents are hitting for a .280 average, providing Guerrero Jr. plenty of opportunities to succeed. Guerrero has consistently recorded hits recently, attaining at least one hit in each of his last four games. Historically, Guerrero has also done well directly facing Gore, batting .600 with a home run in five career at-bats.

Brian Howard strongly recommended betting on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to hit a home run against Dean Kramer, citing Vlad Jr.'s exceptional head-to-head history. Guerrero Jr. is 10-for-28 lifetime against Kramer with five of those hits being home runs, making it a highly favorable matchup. Howard considered betting Guerrero Jr.'s two total bases as a safer prop option but preferred the higher payout and better value associated with the home run prop, especially given early-season boosts offered by sportsbooks.

Bettor Mark strongly recommended targeting Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s hits, runs, and RBIs prop versus Dean Kremer, citing Kremer's extreme inconsistency throughout his career. He noted Guerrero's excellent performance in the previous game (2 hits, 1 RBI, totaling 3 combined) as context to justify another strong performance. Mark advised betting the over 1.5 hits, runs, RBIs at -150 odds on DraftKings, mentioning he believes Vlad could even hit the alternative over 2.5 at juicy plus money odds (+123).

Final Round loves Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s matchup today versus Dean Kremer due to a very favorable pitch arsenal matchup. Guerrero Jr. has a strong 432 batting average against cutters, 297 average against sinkers, and excels overall against Kremer's primary pitches. Historically, Guerrero Jr. bats 348 against Kremer with 8 hits in 23 at-bats including a home run over the last three years, further supporting the pick. Even though statistics cited are based on last season's numbers, Final Round emphasized Guerrero Jr. has shown improvement already early in this season, making this matchup even more appealing and reinforcing his confidence in Guerrero Jr. to produce hits today.

Grant Neiffer pinpointed Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s home run prop at +650 as remarkably undervalued. Emphasizing Guerrero's proven elite power, hitting 30 homers last season and 48 four years ago, he argues these odds make little sense. While Guerrero previously displayed perceived home-road splits, last year split evenly with 15 home runs both home and away, indicating no significant disadvantage in Toronto. Facing Zach Eflin of Baltimore presents a near-average matchup at worst, and while Baltimore's bullpen is strong, Neiffer argues Guerrero’s raw power profile and predictable dome environment provide extreme value at current odds. Neiffer called the number 'ridiculous' given Guerrero's consistent power production, advocating strongly that such mispriced value at +650 is an immediate bet without hesitation.

According to THE BAT X projections from Derek Carty, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. holds strong home run potential, projected to have a 19% chance of hitting a homer against the Orioles. Betting the over on his 0.5 HR line (+450 odds) carries positive expected value of $2.96, driven strongly by Guerrero's home-field advantage enhancing his hitting metrics.

Chris Ruffolo is all-in on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to homer on opening day at attractive odds of +550. He highlights Vladie's current contract year scenario, with heavy offseason speculation around whether he was asking for too much money or if the Blue Jays have shortchanged him. Guerrero typically thrives under pressure, and Zach Eflin is considered a weak opponent, someone Ruffolo categorically believes doesn't belong as an opening day starter. Ruffolo expects Guerrero Jr. to emphatically kick off the season, crushing a home run off Eflin to set the tone and justify his contract worthiness.