Guy Boston Sports advised taking Xander Bogaerts over 0.5 hits at ‑210 on FanDuel. Bogaerts has an 80% hit rate in both his last 10 (1.1 per game) and last 20 (1.2) contests and sits at 63% on the season. He has cleared the number in nine of his last 11 home games (1.4 per). Though he is 0-for-4 lifetime against southpaw Matthew Liberatore, the tout dismissed the tiny sample and focused on Bogaerts’ .306 average and .347 BABIP versus left-handers this year. Liberatore’s splits swing the wrong way when he faces right-handed bats (.273 AVG allowed). Pitch mix also favors Bogaerts: his wOBA is .445 vs sliders, .347 vs curves, .433 vs changeups, .424 vs cutters, and even .297 against fastballs—the pitch Liberatore throws most often. The cumulative data points to another base hit from Bogaerts tonight.

Zarpentine backed Xander Bogaerts over 1.5 hits+runs+RBI at +145 thanks to a sparkling matchup versus Yankees lefty Carlos Rodon. Bogaerts owns a 5-for-12 (.417) career line against Rodon and hits in the heart of San Diego’s order, giving him multiple pathways to clear the combo prop. Since ending a brief three-game skid, Bogaerts has gone over this number in four of his last six contests. The analyst expects at least two scoring chances in Yankee Stadium’s right-center gap and notes that Rodon’s slider-heavy profile has historically played into Bogaerts’ opposite-field approach.

Just A Bet Outside highlighted how poorly Xander Bogaerts has performed historically against Luis Severino, going just 2-for-29 with 8 strikeouts. This significant sample size suggests that this matchup strongly favors Severino’s pitching strategy and makes Bogaerts a risky option today. Bettors and DFS players should strongly consider fading Bogaerts in lineups and prop bets when facing Severino.

Matt Perrault believes former Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts is very likely to record at least one hit today against the Cubs. Perrault recalled watching the Cubs on his birthday last year and remains high on Bogaerts' hitting ability. He's confident that coming off an offseason move to San Diego, Bogaerts will demonstrate consistency and deliver against Cubs pitching in today's matchup.