Zarpentine backed Xander Bogaerts over 1.5 hits+runs+RBI at +145 thanks to a sparkling matchup versus Yankees lefty Carlos Rodon. Bogaerts owns a 5-for-12 (.417) career line against Rodon and hits in the heart of San Diego’s order, giving him multiple pathways to clear the combo prop. Since ending a brief three-game skid, Bogaerts has gone over this number in four of his last six contests. The analyst expects at least two scoring chances in Yankee Stadium’s right-center gap and notes that Rodon’s slider-heavy profile has historically played into Bogaerts’ opposite-field approach.

Just A Bet Outside highlighted how poorly Xander Bogaerts has performed historically against Luis Severino, going just 2-for-29 with 8 strikeouts. This significant sample size suggests that this matchup strongly favors Severino’s pitching strategy and makes Bogaerts a risky option today. Bettors and DFS players should strongly consider fading Bogaerts in lineups and prop bets when facing Severino.

Matt Perrault believes former Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts is very likely to record at least one hit today against the Cubs. Perrault recalled watching the Cubs on his birthday last year and remains high on Bogaerts' hitting ability. He's confident that coming off an offseason move to San Diego, Bogaerts will demonstrate consistency and deliver against Cubs pitching in today's matchup.