Scott Reichel played Yainer Diaz over 0.5 RBI at +165, noting that Diaz has collected multiple RBIs in three of his last four games and owns a .318 average with runners in scoring position. The Astros draw Michael Wacha, whose 4.72 road ERA is nearly two runs higher than at home and who has allowed current Houston hitters a .380 xwOBA in 43 combined PAs. Batting fifth behind Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez, Diaz is almost guaranteed a scoring-chance plate appearance; Reichel emphasized that even a sacrifice fly cashes the ticket. Because Diaz’s run production has outpaced his hit totals lately, Reichel preferred the standalone RBI prop to hits-plus-RBIs or total bases.

Guy Boston recommends once again targeting Yainer Diaz's under hits+runs+RBIs (1.5), following success betting against Diaz recently. He thinks Diaz will remain quiet versus Seattle pitching, especially considering Logan Gilbert's quality. Boston reiterated recent success fading Diaz and remains confident another under will cash today, hoping for similar outcomes as recent matchups despite general volatility.

Guy Boston discussed betting under for Yainer Diaz, referencing unfavorable matchups against Chris Paddack's secondary pitches (changeup and slider). While acknowledging Diaz hits fastballs effectively, Boston noted Diaz struggles greatly against changeups (wOBA dropping from .329 to .219) and sliders. Given the expectation Paddack will utilize these secondary pitches frequently against Diaz, Boston considers Diaz under props a valuable wager. He specifically used detailed pitch mix data from Outlier to reinforce Diaz's vulnerability against pitches he's likely to see today.