Guy Boston Sports recommended betting the first-three-innings under 2.5 (−125 Caesars) and first-five under 4.5 in Friday’s Nationals-Phillies matchup featuring MacKenzie Gore and Zack Wheeler. Gore is coming off a 10-strikeout, six-shutout-inning gem against San Francisco, while Wheeler owns a 1.7 ERA across his last three starts versus Washington despite a modest 3.20 mark over his past five overall. The tout highlighted Philadelphia’s season-long struggles against left-handed pitching and Washington’s generally light lineup, concluding that the scoring drought should hold at least through the first half of the game. Because both bullpens have shaky middle relief, he prefers these early markets to the full-game total of 8, though he would still lean under there as well.

Kenny G said he is willing to lay the juice with Philadelphia at –175 because the starting-pitching and bullpen gap is that wide. Wheeler just dealt 6 scoreless innings with 10 Ks against San Francisco and owns a clear edge over MacKenzie Gore, who will be backed by the league’s worst bullpen (6.00+ ERA). Washington’s offense is merely 19th in runs and 18th in batting average, while Philadelphia’s bats, although ice-cold and 39-21-3 to the under on the road, are ‘due’ and could break out here. With the Phillies 32-31 away versus Washington’s 23-36 home mark, Kenny considers –175 still playable because, as he put it, “you’re basically getting Wheeler vs the worst pen in baseball.”

B Wade said to take Zack Wheeler over 7.5 strikeouts against the Rangers, pointing out that Wheeler has cleared this line in eight of his last nine overall starts and in six of his past seven road outings. Even in games where he has surrendered runs, Wheeler is escaping jams by piling up punch-outs and continues to work deep into games. Texas owns the 16th-highest team strike-out rate, a middling number that Wade believes is not enough to slow Wheeler’s current K tear.

DFS Army likes Zack Wheeler every bit as much as Skubal, calling Citizens Bank Park his "happy place" where he owns a 32% strikeout rate and 2.71 ERA. Detroit traded away multiple regulars this week and will field what the tout labeled a "AAA lineup" that already strikes out 26.4% of the time against right-handed pitching. Wheeler has fanned 10+ hitters in three of his last five outings and profiles for another ceiling effort if his slider command returns. Despite two shaky appearances in the past three, the underlying swinging-strike rate (14.8% over that span) remains elite. DFS Army plans to feature Wheeler in at least half of its MME builds, pairing him with Bibee or Castillo in GPPs to get different from the Wheeler/Skubal chalk combo.

Kenny G advised laying the –130 with Philadelphia, highlighting Zack Wheeler’s 2.39 ERA and 10-strikeout last outing as the stabilizing force. Over his past five starts Wheeler has posted a 2.05 FIP and only one real blemish (the odd San Diego hiccup). The Phillies’ offense is humming—run totals of 9, 12, 8, 4, and 3 in their last five—and they rank fifth in MLB batting average. Meanwhile New York has lost three straight, owns just a 4.32 bullpen ERA after a second-half collapse, and will be without Aaron Judge (IL, flexor strain). Carlos Rodon’s control deserted him against Toronto (5 walks in 5 IP) and Kenny doubts a sudden turnaround. Both clubs skew under, but he prefers backing the hotter team fighting for the NL East crown. His play: Phillies moneyline.

Drew Martin said the only side he can play in the Bronx is Philadelphia because Zack Wheeler is simply dealing right now. Wheeler comes in at 9-3 with a 2.30 ERA and a ridiculous 164-to-26 K/BB ratio, numbers Martin called "one of the best out there." Carlos Rodon, meanwhile, has walked five in his most recent start, owns long-standing control issues, and has surrendered 11 runs over his last three outings. Martin expects Wheeler’s current form to carry the day and thinks the price will stay reasonable since the Yankees are at home, making the Phillies a buy.

Just A Bet Outside doubled-down on his preseason stance that Zack Wheeler is the best futures ticket for the 2024 NL Cy Young. He bought additional contracts at 47¢ on CallSheet and told listeners that Wheeler’s path is clearing: primary rival Paul Skenes is expected to face tighter inning and pitch-count limits down the stretch, while voters historically lean toward proven veterans when the race is close. With Philadelphia continuing to give Wheeler run-support and the right-hander ranking top-3 in the league in fWAR and innings pitched since the break, the tout believes the current price understates Wheeler’s true probability and advised locking it in before sportsbooks react.

Kenny G advised eating the juice on Philadelphia at –210 because he expects Zack Wheeler to steam-roll Boston. Wheeler owns a 9-3 record with a 2.36 ERA and is coming off an uncharacteristic four-run stumble against San Diego; Kenny framed that as the perfect buy-low spot, citing Wheeler’s 2.88 xFIP and 29% strikeout rate at Citizens Bank Park this season. On the flip side, Walker Buehler has been a gas can in his first season with Boston—6.12 ERA, .302 opponent average—and has yielded 13 hits and six earned over his last 12 innings despite facing below-average Washington and Tampa lineups. Boston’s bats have cooled (6-0-1-4-1 runs in the last five), and the Sox are just 22-27 on the road. Philadelphia is 31-18 at home, and even with a shaky 4.30 bullpen ERA, Kenny believes a seven-inning Wheeler gem masks that weakness. He called Phillies –210 a potential “lock of the day” if the number doesn’t balloon past –225.

Dylan Rockford is happy to lay –1.5 with Philadelphia, making them a –215 favorite on his numbers. Wheeler has been nearly untouchable in Philly (1.91 ERA, 6-1, opponents hitting .164) and enjoys an even longer rest coming out of the break. Rockford expects Boston’s recent offensive slump to continue— the Sox managed just one combined run Friday/Saturday and have struggled to string hits together since the All-Star Game. On the other side, he projects Bueller to allow at least four earned runs given his 8+ road ERA and month-long fade leading into the layoff. Add Wheeler’s strikeout upside and a deep Philadelphia lineup, and Rockford sees the short run-line price as the cleanest way to attack the matchup.

Eric Lindquist recommended building a strike-out ladder on Zack Wheeler when books open. He expects the opening line around 7.5 (+ money) and is willing to push tickets to 8.5 and 9.5. Wheeler has vaulted to NL Cy Young favoritism thanks to both volume and dominance, and Lindquist noted that Boston’s projected top three (Jarren Duran, Roman Anthony, Masataka Yoshida) still offers enough swing-and-miss despite Yoshida’s low K-rate. The Red Sox own only a 103 wRC+ versus right-handers and sit middle-of-the-pack in K-rate since the break. With Wheeler’s innings security and 29.4 % season-long strike-out rate, Lindquist sees double-digit Ks well within range.

B Wade said Zack Wheeler is a strong bet to clear 7.5 strikeouts Monday. Wheeler is averaging just above eight punch-outs per start on the season and has eclipsed this line in 12 of 19 outings. Wade highlighted Wheeler’s home dominance: 8.8 K per game with four straight overs in Citizens Bank Park. After failing to reach eight K’s in San Diego last time out (only six), Wheeler has historically responded—bouncing back in four of six similar spots this year. The matchup sweetens the play: Boston owns MLB’s 3rd-highest strikeout rate (only the Angels and Rockies whiff more) at roughly nine per game. All of that led Wade to lock in the over.

Eric Lindquist said Zack Wheeler remains an elite value at +800 to win the NL Cy Young. He pointed to Wheeler’s complete-game, 12-strikeout gem last week as evidence that the right-hander’s form is peaking at the perfect time. Wheeler owns a 2.73 xERA, a career-best 30.4% strikeout rate, and has already posted two starts with double-digit punch-outs since the All-Star break. Lindquist added that Philadelphia’s bullpen depth reduces the risk of blown wins and that voters often lean toward pitchers on playoff teams—something the division-leading Phillies have going for them. With Spencer Strider out for the year and Logan Webb’s peripheral stats sliding, Lindquist argued the path for Wheeler to separate from the field is wide open, making +800 a mis-priced future he “should have nuked.”

B Wade played Zack Wheeler’s strikeout prop at 7.5 on Sleeper before it moved to 8.5 elsewhere. Wheeler has punched out at least eight hitters in four consecutive starts and averages exactly 8.0 Ks per game in 2025. The Reds own MLB’s 7th-highest strikeout rate, and Wheeler struck out 10 and 8 in his two meetings with them last year. At Citizens Bank Park his average rises to 8.4 Ks, and he has still cashed this ticket in five of nine home outings. With the Reds continuing to swing through everything in the current series, Wade labeled the over a plus-EV play.

The Bettor Mark liked the full-game UNDER 9 in Padres–Phillies, explaining that Zack Wheeler’s 2.45 ERA and 0.99 WHIP at Citizens Bank Park set up a pitching-driven game while Matt Waldron hasn’t started in weeks and could be rusty. He noted 6 of the clubs’ last 10 meetings have stayed below nine runs and Philadelphia’s bats have cooled (scored three or fewer in two of three at Cincinnati). At –115 or better he would rather bank on a low-scoring script than lay the –215 moneyline, suggesting a correlated Same Game Parlay of Phillies ML + Under for those wanting extra juice.

B Wade said Zach Wheeler is an easy play for UNDER 5.5 hits allowed against San Diego. Wheeler has held opponents to five hits or fewer in 12 straight starts and has cleared this line in only two outings all season, both back in April. He stayed under in 73% of his games last year and has only sharpened his command as 2025 has progressed. Wade added that the Padres lineup has cooled off over the past week, making it unlikely they string together six knocks against a locked-in Wheeler. In Wade’s words, "there’s not a whole lot else to look at"—the data says keep riding Wheeler’s stinginess.

Kenny G said he would isolate the starting–pitching edge and play the Phillies first-five moneyline rather than the full game. Philadelphia’s bullpen is a disaster—fifth worst in MLB with a 4.63 ERA and several blown leads—while Houston’s relief corps sits at an elite 3.28. Zack Wheeler carries ace-level numbers (2.95 ERA, 29% K-rate) into the matchup and faces a still-middling Astros lineup that ranks 16th in runs despite recent improvement. Houston counters with rookie left-hander Colton Gordon (2-1, 4.54 ERA) who just gave up seven hits and three runs, two earned, to the lowly A’s. Wheeler’s dominance plus Philadelphia’s 21-17 road record make the Phils worthy chalk early, but Kenny refuses to risk six ugly bullpen frames. With the full-game price around –160 and the first-five closer to –140, he advised laying the shorter number on Philly F5 and skipping the late-inning sweat entirely.

Labeling him ‘arguably the best pitcher in baseball,’ Razzle locked Zack Wheeler into his main builds. Wheeler’s 6.5 K-prop is heavily juiced to the over, and he has a 33% strikeout rate since the calendar flipped to June after rebounding from a single blow-up against Atlanta. Houston’s line-up has fallen to league average in wOBA against righties and owns just a 7.9% walk rate, a critical weakness against Wheeler’s elite command. The Phillies are –165 favorites, giving him strong win and quality-start equity to go along with the strikeouts.

B Wade said to hammer Zack Wheeler’s under 5.5 hits allowed on Wednesday. Wheeler has surrendered more than five hits only twice all season and not once since early April. Over his last ten starts he’s cashed this line every time. Wade noted the series opener was a 1-0 pitchers’ duel in which Ranger Suarez limited Houston to four hits across nearly eight innings, showing the Astros lineup can be stifled. He expects a similar script with Wheeler, who owns elite underlying numbers and gets the same ball-park conditions. Wade called the prop a “gift” that will likely bump down before first pitch, urging bettors to lock it in early.

Eric Lindquist plans to ladder Zack Wheeler strikeouts, starting with the standard over (projected to open around 6.5) and scaling up to 8-plus and even 10-plus. Although the Mets generally limit Ks, Lindquist reminded listeners that he cashed Spencer Strider 7+ earlier in the week and believes Wheeler’s form (13.4 % swinging-strike rate, 32 % CSW over his last five starts) is just as sharp. With two high-leverage relievers unavailable, manager Rob Thomson has been more willing to let Wheeler push 100 pitches, increasing the ceiling. Lindquist projects 8–10 strikeouts and will fire multiple alternate lines once books post numbers.

Razzle labeled Zack Wheeler the slate’s safest stud: four 30-plus DK scores in his last seven and a 2.04 ERA at Citizens Bank. He fanned eight Mets in their first meeting and now draws them again while New York’s lineup is missing two lefty bats. Books opened his K-prop at 6.5 with juice to the over, reinforcing an elite strikeout floor. Razzle plans heavy Wheeler exposure in both cash and GPP builds.

Reichel wants the Phillies, even considering the run line, behind Zack Wheeler’s 7-2 record and 2.76 ERA (24–13 team mark at home). He pointed out the Mets have cratered—losers of five straight and one game under .500 on the road despite being 16 over at Citi Field. Wheeler has allowed more than three runs only once in his last eight starts and owns sharper numbers in South Philly. With New York’s lineup scuffling (shut-out losses already this series) and the starter likely to be middling Tylor Megill (3.95 ERA, 1.36 WHIP), Reichel says any reasonable ML or –1.5 run-line price is playable.

For the same game, Cash Out Sports Picks projected a low-scoring affair, highlighting Jose Berrios’ 3.38 ERA (≤3 ER in five straight) and Wheeler’s dominance (one or fewer ER in four of last five starts, including three shutouts). Philadelphia has cashed the Under in five of its last six, a trend the tout sees continuing with two efficient starters, limited free passes, and both teams capable of keeping the ball in the park at spacious Citizens Bank on a pitcher-friendly weather slate.

Razzle called Zack Wheeler a must-consider pay-up despite a scary Cubs lineup. Wheeler returns from the paternity list fully rested after tossing 110 pitches in back-to-back outings and still owns a 30.3% strike-out rate over his last five starts. Razzle reiterated his season-long stance that Wheeler is "the best actual pitcher in baseball" and expects the workload, strike-out prowess, and potential for seven innings to overcome the tough matchup.

Romanelli leaned toward the Phillies despite their ugly series in Milwaukee and Bryce Harper’s continued absence because Zack Wheeler is still one of the National League’s premier arms and is primed to rebound after a rough outing versus Atlanta. Bowden Francis owns an ERA over 6.00 at Rogers Centre and, although he just pitched well, Romanelli doubts he can repeat success against a motivated Philadelphia lineup. He expects Wheeler to quiet a Blue Jays squad that fattened up on Oakland pitching and likes the Phillies to use this game as a get-right spot.

Martin labeled the second game of the Braves-Phillies double-header his favorite play, insisting Zack Wheeler is a clear ‘bet-on’ arm. Wheeler has fired three consecutive scoreless starts, blanking opponents across those outings, and now faces a Braves roster that continues to sputter on the road. Philadelphia’s lineup is red-hot, and the club owns a 10-1 run over its last 11 games. Although Chris Sale has pitched well for Atlanta, Martin stressed Wheeler’s elite form and the Phillies’ home momentum make Philadelphia the side to trust in Game 2.

Bamford countered with a first-five under, banking on a duel between Zack Wheeler and AJ Smith-Shawver. Wheeler has tossed 19 2/3 scoreless innings over his last three starts, sporting a 0.88 WHIP and 33% strike-out rate. Despite Smith-Shawver’s meltdown in Washington, Bamford trusts the rookie’s 2.45 FIP from his prior four outings and believes he can steady himself for one turn through a Braves lineup that remains dangerous but lukewarm. He projects no more than three combined runs through five, preferring to avoid two explosive bullpens later.

Jay Croucher recommended playing Zack Wheeler’s strikeout prop to the over (projected 6.5 Ks). Wheeler has fanned at least six hitters in six consecutive outings and is coming off a six-strikeout, six-shutout-inning performance against Pittsburgh. Facing an Athletics lineup stuck in a nine-game skid and now missing everyday third baseman Gio Urshela, Croucher expects Wheeler’s swing-and-miss stuff to play for 7-9 punch-outs while the Phillies look to push their win streak to eight.

The Bettor Mark suggested betting Zack Wheeler under 1.5 earned runs allowed at +105. Outside of back-to-back blips against Atlanta and St. Louis, Wheeler has surrendered one run or fewer in every start since early April. The Pirates offense sits bottom-five in wRC+ and has produced more than two runs against a right-handed starter only once in its last seven games. Wheeler’s strikeout stuff (30 % K-rate) should keep traffic minimal, and Philadelphia’s spacious park further suppresses homers. Mark’s only caution was Wheeler running a pitch count deep into the 7th, which could create a late back-door blooper, but he still expects 6-plus innings of one-run ball or better.

Joe Pisapia said Wheeler’s price remains a bargain even after Sunday’s gem (8 K, 7 IP). Wheeler opened last week at 11-to-1, moved to 9-to-1 Sunday morning, and slid only to 7-to-1 after dominating again, signaling the market is still catching up. Pisapia noted the NL field is wide-open because Paul Skenes’ strikeout rate has dipped and voters have no runaway favorite. If Wheeler keeps piling up innings and whiffs on a first-place club, Pisapia expects those odds to keep crashing, making any ticket at 7-to-1 or longer an immediate buy for bettors hunting value.

Welsh suggested pairing a Skenes ticket with Zack Wheeler at 11-to-1 as a hedge in the NL Cy Young race. Wheeler’s surface stats—3.35 ERA, three wins, one loss through eight starts—mask a dominant profile: a 2.36 xERA, .198 expected batting average against, and an 11.0 K/9 on a Phillies club that should supply ample run support. Welsh argued that if bettors like to ‘buy out’ later, Wheeler’s combination of elite peripherals and team context makes him the logical secondary position. Should the win column catch up to the underlying metrics, his odds could quickly shorten into the +400 range, giving hedge-focused gamblers flexibility down the stretch.

Kenny G advised laying the short price on the Phillies at –122 with Zack Wheeler on the bump. Wheeler has looked sharper every turn, and the matchup lines up against a Rays lineup that ranks just 21st in runs despite mid-pack batting average and OBP numbers. Tampa is coming off an emotional series win in Yankee Stadium and still playing its "home" games away from the Trop, a situational let-down spot. Kenny acknowledged Tampa’s 2.97 bullpen ERA but trusts the Phillies’ offense, which has started to wake up, to grab an early lead. He concedes the Philadelphia bullpen is volatile, yet with Wheeler’s length and the Rays’ mediocre sticks he believes the price should be closer to –140. He passed on the total of 8, calling the side the stronger angle.

Mark Borchard said the best way to attack Tuesday’s card is with a two-team money-line parlay that pays roughly +155. The first leg is Philadelphia behind Zack Wheeler, whom Borchard ranks as his No. 4 starter in MLB. He noted the Phillies offense grades out No. 2 in his model and that Citizens Bank Park has quietly turned into a fortress since league-wide humidor installation (Phils are 172-101 at home, +4.9% ROI, 2022-present). The second leg is Boston with Kutter Crawford, Borchard’s No. 5 rated arm, backed by the No. 4 offense in his numbers. He framed the ticket as a simple ‘Hall-of-Fame-caliber stuff plus top-five bats’ equation and believes the +155 return is mis-priced given both opponents are sending bottom-half starters to the mound.

Welsh recommended a first‑five‑innings Philadelphia moneyline play, laying the modest juice on Zack Wheeler over Mets lefty David Peterson. He cited Wheeler’s 2.14 FIP and 31% K‑minus‑BB rate plus the Mets’ .289 team OBP versus righties. Because Peterson struggles to put away same‑side hitters, Welsh expects Turner and Bohm to scratch an early lead and prefers the five‑inning window to avoid the Phillies’ middle‑relief volatility.

Guy Boston advised taking Philadelphia on the first‑five money line (or run line for plus money) because Zack Wheeler versus David Peterson is a lopsided matchup. Wheeler owns elite underlying numbers—31 % K‑rate, 2.51 xERA—and usually only gives up damage deep in the seventh, which the F5 bet avoids. The Phillies mash left‑handed pitching (120 wRC+ vs LHP this season), while Peterson’s 55 % ground‑ball rate masks an unsustainable .241 BABIP that Guy says is "screaming regression." He also noted the Mets’ bullpen worked heavily the previous night, meaning Buck Showalter will leave Peterson out there even if trouble starts. With both relief units taxed, Guy wants to isolate the starting‑pitching edge and cash before the pens enter.

Seeing Zack Wheeler priced at just ‑115 surprised Purviance, but instead of backing the ace he prefers over 7.5 runs. He cited Wheeler’s 3.73 ERA through two starts and David Peterson’s 1.36 WHIP as indicators both clubs can score. Brian Howard agreed, stressing that a 7.5 total is low when both pitchers carry early‑season ERAs above 3.0 and the Mets bullpen has been shaky. Purviance framed the number as misaligned with the underlying base‑runners each pitcher is allowing and believes Citizens Bank Park’s hitter‑friendly environment could push the game toward 8‑plus runs.

Kingpin Staff hit over 7.5 strikeouts for Zack Wheeler. He averages 10.9 K/9 this season, is stretched to 105 pitches, and faces a Mets lineup with a 24% K rate versus power righties. Wheeler’s slider generated a 42% whiff rate in his last start, a pitch New York hitters slug just .318 against. Projected to work 7 innings, the model gives him 9.1 median Ks, well above the posted number.

Adam Pelletier grabbed Zack Wheeler OVER 18.5 outs recorded at plus money, expecting the Phillies ace to clear six full innings. Pelletier pointed out that Wheeler has topped this number in three of four starts despite a rare clunker versus Atlanta, a lineup that never chases. Miami is the opposite: the Marlins rank bottom‑five in walk rate, slugging and pitches per plate appearance. Wheeler owns an 11‑2 record and 2.30 ERA against them for his career and routinely works into the mid‑90s in pitch count. With Miami lacking both patience and power, Pelletier projected 6.1–7.0 innings and called the plus‑odds mis‑priced for a proven workhorse.

Peterson laid the -1.5 runs with Philadelphia at +110. Zack Wheeler owns a lifetime 2.73 ERA and <0.7 HR/9 in 25 starts against Miami, and he’ll see a Marlins offense scoring only 2.8 runs per road game. Sandy Alcantara’s command has abandoned him after a year off (4.7 BB/9, 4.70 ERA in three 2025 starts), a far cry from his pre‑injury control. Peterson’s personal line made the Phillies -1.5 -117, so current plus money presents straight value.

Tim Finnegan advocates for the under on Zack Wheeler's allowed earned runs (1.5) in his matchup against St Louis. Wheeler's consistency and impactful start to the season make him a likely candidate to keep runs to a minimum. Finnegan notes Wheeler's excellent road stats and superior control, combined with St Louis' struggles against right-handed pitchers this season, suggesting Wheeler is primed for a strong performance.

Kenny G advised taking the Phillies on the run line at -1.5 (-105), banking on Zack Wheeler bouncing back and the Phillies having a strong offensive matchup against Matthew Liberatore's struggling start (5.84 ERA, shelled by Pittsburgh last start). Kenny cited Wheeler's otherwise solid early form despite one rough outing against Atlanta (eight hits, five earned runs), expecting positive regression. Further reasoning includes Phillies hitters (Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos) performing well, ranking top 10 in batting average and top 5 in on-base percentage. Cardinals bullpen issues (bottom six ERA at 4.58) and questionable starting pitching increased Kenny's confidence in backing the Phillies runline.

B Wade recommends betting Zack Wheeler hitting over 6.5 strikeouts, highlighting Wheeler's strong consistency and strikeout performance. Wheeler has exceeded this strikeout count in all three starts this season and in 15 of his last 20 starts overall, averaging 7.5 strikeouts per game during that period. Wade acknowledges Wheeler only recorded five strikeouts against the Cardinals in their single matchup last year, but he discounts the relevance due to the time elapsed. He also mentions the Cardinals currently strike out at an average rate (approximately 8.8 per game), positioning Wheeler well for continued success and finding significant value at even money odds given his recent form.

Joe Osborne is taking the Phillies at plus odds with Zack Wheeler on the mound against Atlanta. Joe highlights Wheeler's dominant start, allowing just one earned run in each of his two starts with only five hits conceded total and 18 strikeouts. He also emphasizes Wheeler's historic dominance against the Braves (0.95 ERA in three starts last year) and notes the Braves' MLB-worst OPS entering this matchup. Contrasting that with Philly's high-powered offense, Joe assesses clear value in backing Wheeler and the Phillies as slight underdogs.

Kingpin likes the value of backing Philadelphia Phillies on the moneyline (+100) due to Zack Wheeler's recent strong form. Wheeler has started the season impressively, racking up strikeouts against powerful lineups. Facing a Braves team known for its tendency to chase pitches out of the zone increases Wheeler's potential for dominance. Despite Chris Sale's well-known name, Sale’s recent inconsistency further provides value on this bet where the Phillies have a legitimate chance of snagging a tight victory in Atlanta.

Jim Sannes likes Zack Wheeler's alternate strikeout prop of 8+ strikeouts, citing several encouraging trends. Wheeler has demonstrated strong stamina, throwing 105 pitches in his previous start and striking out 10. He's had eight-plus strikeouts in each of his first two starts this season. Crucially, Wheeler reduced cutter usage while relying more heavily on his splitter, a pitch boasting a 40.2% whiff rate last year compared to the cutter's modest 18.2%. In 11 starts with this adjusted pitch mix, Wheeler has posted a sterling 32.7% strikeout rate. Additionally, the Braves' lineup sports a 24.0% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers since the start of last year. Taking these factors into account, Sannes projects Wheeler at 8.52 strikeouts, giving confidence in targeting Wheeler's strikeout upside at plus odds.

Kyle Purviance highlighted concerning head-to-head statistics that strongly lean against key Braves hitters in their matchup against Phillies ace Zack Wheeler. Notably, critical Atlanta lineup members Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, and Marcell Ozuna collectively struggle significantly against Wheeler, with batting averages of just .219, .160, and .170 respectively, combined with a high strikeout rate—45 strikeouts over 145 plate appearances. Purviance cited these strong historical matchups as an additional reason to confidently back the Phillies at current underdog pricing, anticipating Wheeler to continue effectively suppressing Atlanta's production.

Just A Bet Outside emphasized Zack Wheeler's overwhelming historical success against multiple Atlanta Braves hitters today, highlighting Marcell Ozuna's 21 strikeouts, Ozzie Albies' 9 strikeouts in 47 at-bats, and Matt Olson's 8 Ks in 26 at-bats. Wheeler has been dominant recently, and given the Braves hitters' historical difficulties, they projected Wheeler to have a strong pitching performance.

B Wade strongly supports Zack Wheeler surpassing 7.5 strikeouts against an Atlanta team ranked sixth in MLB strikeout rates. Wheeler has exceeded this number consistently, already posting ten strikeouts against Colorado and eight against Washington this season. Looking back, he closed the previous season averaging over nine strikeouts per start in his final three games, twice facing the Mets and once facing Washington. Wheeler also averages approximately 9.5 strikeouts per start versus Atlanta historically. Given both Wheeler's recent form, previous track record against Atlanta, and their high strikeout tendency, Wade confidently endorses Wheeler to deliver another high-strikeout outing.

Charlie Wright recommended betting Zack Wheeler to stay under 6.5 strikeouts on Opening Day against the Nationals. Wright noted Washington had one of MLB's toughest lineups to strike out last season, finishing 8th lowest in strikeout rate vs right-handed pitching and improving further to 4th lowest in the final two months. The Nationals replaced high-strikeout players like Lane Thomas and Joey Gallo with strong contact hitters such as Nathaniel Lowe and Josh Bell, further tightening their strikeout profile. Wright also highlighted Wheeler's limited spring training workload of only 75 pitches and five innings per outing, likely restricting innings and limiting his strikeout ceiling in the opener.

Sean Zerillo strongly recommended betting under 6.5 strikeouts for Zach Wheeler against the Nationals. Zerillo’s analysis highlighted several reasons for this under play: first, Wheeler typically leans on sinkers earlier in the season to generate ground balls rather than chase strikeouts, shifting to more four-seam usage and velocity as the season progresses. Second, pitch count limitations on opening day will likely prevent Wheeler from exceeding around 90 pitches, further limiting strikeout upside. Lastly, Nationals hitters dramatically improved their strikeout rate after bringing up prospects Dylan Crews and James Wood last year, ending the season ranked second-best in MLB with just a 19.9% strikeout rate over the last two months. Zerillo expects the Nationals will continue their disciplined approach this season and Wheeler to stay below the 6.5 strikeout mark comfortably.

Chris Ruffolo said to fade Zachary Wheeler in his opening day start, pointing out that the betting public tends to overvalue pitchers based on prior season's results. Ruffolo emphasized that spring training performances in Florida are irrelevant and suggested that Wheeler's strong win totals from the previous year have inflated his betting lines. For value, Ruffolo recommends backing the Nationals as sizeable underdogs (+35, 45, or 55 cents), emphasizing the importance of shopping around for the best dime line value at various sportsbooks to maximize returns. Early-season betting methods, according to Ruffolo, revolve around fading pitchers who the public heavily bets due to high win totals from last year.

Bill Harrelson strongly recommends Zach Wheeler exceeding 34.5 fantasy points on opening day against the Nationals. Wheeler has convincingly surpassed this line in 12 consecutive starts and in 17 of his last 20 outings, resulting in an impressive 85% hit rate recently. Additionally, Wheeler has historically dominated the Nationals, registering fantasy totals of 43, 43, and 50 points in recent meetings. During the previous MLB season, Wheeler surpassed this figure in 27 of his 33 starts. Harrelson notes Underdog as the only platform offering this prop at the time, signaling great value.