Arizona Diamondbacks

Guy Boston sees Merrill Kelly potentially struggling today versus the Yankees given his significant difficulties against left-handed batters. He notes Kelly's vulnerability is particularly concerning given the Yankees' strong lefty hitters including Wells, Jasson Dominguez, Cody Bellinger, and Jazz Chisholm. Given Kelly's splits, this sets a solid stage for Yankees lefties to have an impactful game offensively.

Tokyo Brandon advised betting on Merrill Kelly and the Diamondbacks in the first five innings against the Yankees. Kelly has historically excelled against New York, holding Yankee hitters to a .180 average and .580 OPS in his career. He recently had a strong start, unlike opposing starter Carlos Carrasco, who has struggled in recent years. With Kelly maintaining solid form even at 36 and benefiting from Arizona's top-3 ranked offense by Brandon's metrics, Brandon sees value in taking Arizona at +0.5 runs for the first five innings at odds between -120 and -135, expecting Kelly to outperform Carrasco early.

Zach Thompson recommended Eugenio Suarez as a large-upside DFS selection vs Carlos Carrasco and the Yankees. Suarez has only five hits in his first 21 at-bats this season, but all five were home runs, including a game-winning grand slam Tuesday against the Yankees. Suarez has historical success against Carrasco (4-for-17 with a home run and a triple) and remains an affordable option for DFS contests, making him a compelling choice on DraftKings and FanDuel.

NBC Sports Bet Staff leaned toward the Diamondbacks covering the run line at +1.5 against the Yankees. Highlighting recent performance, although the Diamondbacks struggled offensively picking up just three hits in their last win, their pitching has been sharp, including Zach Gallen's 13-strikeout masterpiece. Merrill Kelly, Thursday's starter, allowed just one earned run over 5.1 innings in his last outing, positioning Arizona to keep the game tight.

Tristan H. Cockcroft pinpointed Diamondbacks hitter Gabriel Moreno as an excellent streaming option in DFS against veteran RHP Carlos Carrasco. While Carrasco making the Yankees rotation is a compelling feel-good story, Cockcroft notes that his roster spot comes from team desperation rather than his merit, evidenced by a troubling 5.02 ERA and 1.40 WHIP since 2019. Cockcroft believes Moreno, along with teammates Jake McCarthy and Pavin Smith, are set up for success facing Carrasco's shaky pitching and offers a clear actionable DFS recommendation.

Tristan H. Cockcroft identified Merrill Kelly as a viable pitching stream despite the challenging road matchup against the Yankees. Though Yankee Stadium is known as a hitter-friendly park, Cockcroft highlighted Kelly’s ability to limit home runs, evidenced by having the 11th-lowest HR/9 rate among pitchers with at least 450 innings since 2022. The Diamondbacks pitcher faces a potent New York lineup led by Aaron Judge, amplifying the risk, yet his history of suppressing long balls makes him worth consideration on a difficult slate with limited streaming options.

Data Skrive’s MLB model backs the slight underdog Diamondbacks (+102 money line) to take down the Yankees on the road. Despite Yankees' decent kickoff with a 3-2 record, Arizona boasts better early momentum at 4-2 and projects strongly in a game with a total set at 9.5. The computer also likes a higher-scoring match-up, predicting the final score to go over the specified total, which favors Arizona's ability to exploit Yankee Stadium's friendly offensive dimensions.

Derek Carty advises betting under 4.5 strikeouts (-110) for Merrill Kelly given his weak fastball velocity (91.9 mph, ranking in the 24th percentile among starters) and challenging opponent in the Yankees. Kelly's limited swing-and-miss capability against a potent New York Yankees offense caps his strikeout upside, making the under bet a strategically profitable move (+$7.96 EV, with 56% probability to hit).

Greg Peterson backs Merrill Kelly and the Diamondbacks, anticipating a rebound to his strong 2023 form where Kelly recorded a career-high 9.5 strikeouts per 9 innings and a solid 3.29 ERA. Despite an injury-shortened, down year in 2024, Peterson believes Kelly's talent and strikeout upside give Arizona the betting edge against Carrasco and the Yankees, pricing them favorably at -104 (Peterson's fair line: -123).

Dylan Rockford is extremely bullish on Arizona at an alternate run line of minus 1.5 at plus 145 odds against the Yankees. He backed this recommendation by underscoring Merrill Kelly's sharp pitching in his first outing against the Cubs, while juxtaposing it with Carrasco's disastrous relief outing against Milwaukee, allowing three runs in two innings. Rockford's numbers demonstrated Arizona should actually be a favored team around minus 125 in this scenario due to a definitive pitching and bullpen edge. He believes Kelly will continue dominating against a Yankees lineup that is currently shaky, further citing Arizona's strong bullpen and balanced offensive profile. Rockford sees significant betting value on Arizona covering the spread and winning comfortably, ultimately selecting this alternate run line as his dog of the day.

Scott Reichel strongly endorses backing Merrill Kelly and the Diamondbacks at a line of minus 102, considering it exceptional value against Carlos Carrasco, who has struggled mightily. Reichel pointed out Carrasco's current ERA stands at a disastrous 13.5, resulting from a terrible relief outing against a modest Brewers lineup. By contrast, Kelly impressed in his first start of the season against the Cubs and boasts solid historical performances against the Yankees. Additionally, Arizona possesses a reliable bullpen and a potent lineup currently performing well, notably Eugenio Suarez hitting key home runs. Reichel reiterated that getting nearly even money with clearly the superior pitcher, better bullpen, and an offense at least as capable as the Yankees is an attractive scenario and makes the Diamondbacks' money line his lock play for the slate.

B Wade likes Ketel Marte to score over half a run against Carlos Carrasco and the Yankees, citing Marte's strong early-season form, scoring in 5 out of his first 6 games this year and scoring in the last four matchups against the Yankees dating back to last season. Carrasco struggled significantly last year, going 3-10 with an ERA over 5, which makes him a prime candidate to get roughed up by Arizona's offense. B Wade thinks Marte will not only hit runners in but also get knocked in himself, predicting an active day offensively for Arizona, making Marte a strong bet to score at positive odds.

Kyle Purviance recommends taking Arizona Diamondbacks on the first five innings run line at plus 114. He believes Merrill Kelly clearly has the pitching advantage over Carlos Carrasco, who struggled immensely in his last start, exiting after just two innings against Milwaukee. Although the Yankees' bullpen is significantly more reliable, Purviance sees enough value betting Arizona to capitalize early against Carrasco, whose early-season form looks shaky against a Diamondbacks offense performing well.

It's The Final Round initially portrayed Ketel Marte's matchup against Carlos Carrasco as just a lean due to Marte's modest .224 average against Carrasco's primary pitch—the change-up. However, after reconsideration, he warmed up more to the matchup, given Carrasco's weaknesses beyond the change-up and Marte's strong performance against other pitches, notably Carrasco's four-seam fastball. Marte has hit .250 against Carrasco in limited historical exposure (2 hits in 8 at-bats). Given Carrasco's high batting averages allowed across his pitch types and limited pitch variety (primarily relying on two pitches), It's The Final Round suggested Marte could be a stronger betting option than originally thought and would likely elevate him from lean to official pick in hits, runs, and RBIs for April 3rd.

JD Bets is taking Arizona (+120) moneyline against the Yankees, citing Zac Gallen’s stellar history versus New York. Historically, Gallen owns a zero ERA against the Yankees, consistently dominating their lineup regardless of roster composition. Additionally, JD notes the D-backs hitters perform well against left-handed pitchers like Carlos Rodon, further supporting the underdog play. Though Rodon has overall strong strikeout numbers, his record against Arizona's lineup indicates vulnerability, with many D-backs hitters managing averages above .250. JD confidently backs Arizona on the moneyline due to this pitching advantage and favorable lineup matchup.

Millz Young endorses Zac Gallen's strikeout prop against the Yankees, specifically liking it if set at 5.5. Young highlights that Gallen has established himself as one of MLB's premier strikeout pitchers over the past three seasons and expects him to record at least six Ks, additionally giving the Diamondbacks a good chance at securing the win.

Final Round recommended Merrill Kelly primarily due to his consistent hitting performance this season—Kelly has recorded at least one hit in every game thus far, with multiple hits in many matchups. While the batting averages of current opposing pitcher Ben Lively's primary pitches against aren't dire (mostly respectable averages allowed), Kelly’s reliability and current form are the main positive factors cited. Final Round flagged Kelly as one of the top three plays for the day.

Drew Martin is confident in backing Corbin Burnes and the Arizona Diamondbacks at -115 against the Yankees. Burnes finished last season strong, allowing just one earned run in his final 19 innings. He previously dominated the Yankees, striking out nine hitters and allowing only two hits in his last start at Yankee Stadium. Burnes enters well-rested as he wanted five days between starts. Drew contrasted this with Yankees pitcher Will Warren's lack of experience (0-3 record with a 10-plus ERA), highlighting clear pitching discrepancy and wagering value on Arizona.

Just a Bet Outside recommended betting the Diamondbacks money line for the first five innings against the Yankees at -120 odds on DraftKings. He provided substantial evidence supporting Arizona, highlighting that both offenses are hot, but Arizona has a significant advantage with Corbin Burnes on the mound. Burnes boasts a career 3.19 ERA, elite 50.7% groundball rate to mitigate Yankee Stadium's advantages, and a successful record versus key Yankee hitters (Judge 0-for-7, Chisholm 3-for-14, Bellinger 4-for-18). Meanwhile Yankees starter Will Warren is inexperienced (22.2 MLB innings, 10.32 ERA, 1.9 whip) and presents a clear advantage for Arizona's lineup early in the game. This makes Arizona first-five a solid wager.

Brian Howard cautioned bettors about taking the Diamondbacks versus the Yankees in Corbin Burnes' debut, explicitly citing the Yankees' current hot streak and powerful lineup. While acknowledging Burnes represents the first legit quality starter New York has faced, Brian emphasized the strength, confidence, and recent form of New York's hitters. Despite Kyle Purviance’s enthusiasm for the Diamondbacks at an attractive short price, Howard reminded listeners about the strength of the Yankees bullpen and suggested that betting options like the Diamondbacks first-five run line at plus money might be safer than backing them outright against a dangerous Yankees lineup.

Guy Boston recommended betting Arizona's team total over versus Matthew Boyd and the Cubs today, highlighting strong matchup advantages for Diamondbacks hitters. Boston extensively discussed how effectively the Arizona offense performed last year against left-handed pitching—ranking first or second across several categories including OPS, slugging percentage, and batting average against lefties. He pointed to Boyd's pitch mix as favorable for Arizona and suggested betting a team total of 3.5 or 4.5, depending on juice, forecasting a high-scoring outing for Arizona given Boyd's vulnerability and Arizona's elite splits versus left-handed pitchers.

JD Bets recommended betting Eduardo Rodriguez over 4.5 hits allowed against the Cubs. Rodriguez consistently allowed numerous hits last season, surrendering at least four in every single start, averaging 5.6 per game. Additionally, JD outlined that the Cubs generally hit left-handed pitching well, further strengthening confidence in this particular prop play.

Chris Ruffolo is confident in Eugenio Suarez hitting a home run versus Jameson Taillon of the Cubs, citing Suarez's productive history vs the pitcher. Despite a moderate .219 average (7 for 32 lifetime), Suarez has recorded five extra-base hits with three homers against Taillon. Ruffolo dislikes Taillon's pitching style, mentioning long-standing doubts from Taillon's previous stints (Pirates, Cubs, Yankees). Suarez is off to a solid start, making his +400 odds appealing.

JD Bets liked the Diamondbacks moneyline against the Cubs, pointing mainly to the pitching advantage. He noted the struggles of Cubs starter Jameson Taillon, who posted a high spring ERA of 6.75 with only 12 strikeouts and a 1.41 WHIP. Merrill Kelly of Arizona has historically pitched well against the Cubs, holding a solid 4.03 ERA and good career results, notably containing Cubs hitters to modest batting stats historically. JD Bets wasn't particularly concerned by the Cubs lineup, highlighting Justin Turner as their most impressive batter historically against Kelly, but noting Turner is rarely even in the starting lineup currently. Given these factors, JD confidently recommended the Arizona Moneyline bet.

Brad Francis strongly recommended betting on the Arizona Diamondbacks money line against the Cubs. While acknowledging the Diamondbacks disappointed bettors the previous day, he noted a favorable trend: the Cubs have lost four straight games when playing as an underdog following a win. Despite recognizing that the Cubs were hitting well yesterday, Brad confidently predicted the Diamondbacks would regain form and secure a bounce-back win, considering the team solidly equipped to avoid losing two straight to the Cubs.

Bettor Mark backs the Diamondbacks moneyline at -144 against the Cubs, emphasizing confidence in starting pitcher Merrill Kelly. The Diamondbacks are still looking for their first win of the season, and Mark believes this home matchup is a prime bounce-back scenario. He specifically mentions Kelly as someone he trusts to stop Arizona’s early losing skid and secure their first victory.

Kyle Purviance is enthusiastically backing the Diamondbacks to cover the runline at plus 154 against the Cubs, mainly due to the weakness of Jameson Taillon. Taillon is characterized as 'shot' and consistently poor, without any recent evidence suggesting improvement. Purviance expresses confusion that the D-backs aren’t larger favorites and confidently locks in Arizona minus one and a half runs at plus odds, citing Taillon’s ongoing struggles as the main justification.

Kyle Purviance selects the Diamondbacks minus one run as a key piece of a high-upside parlay. He indicates confidence in this selection due to favorable pitching matchups and offensive scenarios, making Arizona a reliable pick to cover a modest run line this evening.

Kyle Purviance endorses betting Zach Gallen's strikeout prop versus the Cubs, noting he has started strong with a strikeout already through the first inning. Gallen is positioned as highly capable of exploiting the Chicago lineup's swing-and-miss tendencies, and Purviance clearly sees significant upside on his potential strikeout total in this specific matchup.

Kyle Purviance includes Ketel Marte recording at least one RBI as a key component of his 298-to-1 parlay, emphasizing Marte's strong RBI potential in a favorable offensive setting. Marte is expected to capitalize on run-scoring opportunities given his positional consistency in run-producing scenarios.

Peter Dewey recommended betting Zac Gallen over 4.5 strikeouts against the Cubs on Opening Day. Despite a modest 3.65 ERA last season, Gallen had a strong strikeout volume of 156 punchouts in 148 innings, striking out at least five batters in 17 of his 28 starts, including each of his final seven appearances. The Cubs, who averaged over eight strikeouts per game last year, represent an ideal matchup for Gallen, making this prop a solid choice.

Steve Seagrave recommended betting Arizona Diamondbacks on the moneyline for Opening Day against the Chicago Cubs. Justin Steele struggled significantly in his opener against the Dodgers, surrendering five earned runs and three home runs in just four innings. Zac Gallen, meanwhile, demonstrated excellent form at Chase Field last season, going 8-3 with a 3.36 ERA and a stellar .235 batting average against. Additionally, Arizona historically performs very well in home openers, winning comfortably the past four times they've opened the season at home, most recently with a blowout win (16-1) over Colorado last year. This blend of favorable history, home advantage, and pitching superiority makes the Diamondbacks a strong wager at -125.

Rob Donaldson is openly fading Diamondbacks pitcher Zach Gallen against the Cubs bats on Opening Day. Donaldson specifically mentioned Gallen’s continuous issues surrendering extremely high hard-hit percentages the past two seasons despite his perceived elite status. Donaldson believes this vulnerability makes Gallen consistently overvalued and thus sees betting value against Gallen to start the season.

Eric Lindquist highly recommended betting Ketel Marte over 1.5 total bases at -110 odds against Cubs lefty Justin Steele. Highlighting Marte's notable pop from the right side as a switch-hitter, Lindquist emphasized Marte's historical excellence versus left-handed pitching. Steele struggled heavily (allowed significant damage) in his early season outing despite low hard-hit metrics (27.3% hard-hit allowed over limited sample). Lindquist confidently expects Marte to capitalize on the matchup advantage, seeing significant immediate value in Marte's total bases prop.

Bettor Mark expressed optimism about the Diamondbacks this season following the acquisition of top starter Corbin Burnes. He praised Arizona for integrating Burnes while keeping Zack Gallen as their Opening Day starter, maintaining good clubhouse chemistry. Mark stated the Diamondbacks improved significantly offensively as well and expects them to have a great season, thereby making them an appealing target for futures markets and season-long bets.

Brian Howard endorses Gabriel Moreno's total bases prop (+135) against Cubs pitcher Justin Steele as a strong MLB Opening Day play. Howard cites Moreno's extremely impressive hitter profile versus Steele, going 7-for-8 with three doubles, four singles, and notably zero strikeouts. Howard emphasizes Moreno's rare ability to consistently see and time Steele's pitches, significantly enhancing extra-base hit potential. Though acknowledging the small sample size (eight at-bats), Howard confidently anticipates Moreno continuing this dominance in their head-to-head matchup, labeling it one of his favorites alongside earlier touted Adley Rutschman total bases prop.

Sean Zerillo strongly recommends betting Corbin Carroll to lead MLB in runs scored. His modeling indicates that Carroll wins this prop 10-11% of the time, equating to fair odds of around 9 to 1. Carroll endured a slow start last season due to injuries yet still finished fifth league-wide with 120 runs and actually led all hitters in runs during the second half. Zerillo highlights a notable change—Carroll started pulling more fly balls in the air, significantly boosting his power potential. Given Carroll’s elite speed and discipline (high walk-rate), he's primed for frequent scoring opportunities and easy doubles or triples. Zerillo bet it himself at 20 to 1 but still advises it's good value at anything better than 10 to 1.