He backed Atlanta, citing Busch Stadium dominance (4-2 last six, including 2023 sweep). Braves’ staff owns a daytime ERA of 3.59 (6th MLB) versus Cardinals’ middling group. St. Louis starter Jake Fetty (referred to as Feta) sports a brutal 15.30 ERA across his last three and a 9.98 career ERA vs ATL. Cards recently lost a home series to the Cubs, exposing the lineup’s vulnerability. Combined, those factors make Atlanta ‘a strong chance to pull off a win on the road.’

It's The Final Round highlighted Braves rookie catcher Drake Baldwin as an under-the-radar hit prop if he’s in Saturday’s lineup against Cardinals right-hander Eric Fetty. Fetty is giving up a .280 average to left-handed hitters and struggled the last time the tout attacked him. Baldwin, a lefty bat, is slashing .276 vs right-handed pitching and is red-hot recently: .353 with six hits, a homer, and four RBI in his last five games. The tout admits Baldwin could rest because he’s a catcher, but if he starts, the southpaw–righty matchup plus Baldwin’s form make a single-hit or total bases play highly appealing.

Harrelson is UNDER 1.5 total bases on Ronald Acuna Jr. despite the MVP talent. Acuna has stayed below this mark in 9 of his last 10 and 14 of his last 20 outings, hitting it only 54% of the time in 41 games this season. The matchup is poor: he is 0-for-3 lifetime off Cardinals lefty Matthew Liberatore and owns a drastic platoon split, batting .207 versus left-handed pitching compared to .336 overall. With sportsbooks largely in agreement and recent form cold, Harrelson is willing to fade the superstar for one night.

Chris Welsh acknowledged Michael Harris II has been "not remotely worth the cost"—he is hitting just .122 (6-for-49) with zero homers and two steals over his last 15 games and has now been benched on back-to-back days. Even so, Welsh urged fantasy managers to keep him rostered. He expects Atlanta, currently well out of both the division race and wild-card picture, to give Harris everyday run in the second half rather than option or platoon him. With no threat of a demotion or trade and plenty of time for a second-half adjustment, Welsh believes patient managers could still recoup value in steals and counting stats once the pressure of contention is gone.

Lindquist recommended firing an Austin Riley home-run prop (and even sprinkling a two-homer ladder) against J.P. Sears in Oakland. He argued Riley has been unlucky: his expected slugging is still hovering near .500 despite the surface dip to .431, and his hard-hit profile mirrors the 37-homer 2023 campaign. Sears provides the perfect get-right spot with a 21.8-degree average launch angle allowed, a flattened four-seam, and a 0.462 expected slugging that plays even worse in the Coliseum’s AAA-style environment with wind blowing out. With Riley locked into a top-four lineup slot and Atlanta’s surrounding bats forcing Sears to pitch to him, Lindquist sees plus-money value on a long ball.

Brad Francis played Braves team total over 5.5, noting Atlanta’s bats "came alive" with nine runs on Wednesday and now face JP Sears, whom he says "hasn’t looked the same this season." Francis also torched the A’s bullpen, calling it "dog meat," and expects the combination of a struggling starter plus a bottom-tier relief corps to let Atlanta plate at least six runs again.

Bill Harrelson wants to keep fading Marcell Ozuna with UNDER 7.5 fantasy points on Underdog. Ozuna has fallen short of this total in nine of his last ten games and 15 of his last 20, collecting a hit in only half of those contests. While he torched Oakland over a year ago, Harrelson dismissed that data point because it was "13 months ago" and emphasized that the 2025 version of Ozuna is ice-cold despite clearing the number in 60% of his 85 games overall. The recent slump—combined with Underdog being the lone book hanging a fantasy-score line—creates what Harrelson views as a mis-priced opportunity to bet against the Braves slugger staying hot.

Bill Harrelson is fading Marcell Ozuna, playing the under 1.5 combined hits, runs, and RBIs for Saturday’s matchup with Baltimore. Ozuna has stayed under this number in 8 of his last 10 and 14 of his last 20 games, including 13 of the last 16 overall. Over his past five home games he is averaging just 0.2 H+R+RBI. Harrelson noted Ozuna’s 0-for-2 career line against Saturday’s starter Dean Kremer and emphasized that Kremer has been tougher on right-handed hitters this season. While Underdog is the only book offering the prop, the recent cold streak, minimal success against Kremer, and pitcher split led Harrelson to back the under.

Just A Bet Outside endorsed backing Strider’s strikeout over prop against Baltimore, which owns the third-highest K-rate vs right-handers in the last three weeks (25.7%). Even in an "injury-shortened" campaign, Strider has racked up 57 Ks in 49 innings. His recent totals show the volatility (5, 13, 8, 8, 4) but underline the ceiling when both pitches are working. He fans hitters at a 30.2% clip at Truist Park compared with 26.4% on the road, and he strikes out righties 29.8% of the time. The host expects Strider’s number to open around 8.5; given the matchup, home splits, and Baltimore’s swing-and-miss tendencies, he likes the over for bettors chasing double-digit K upside in DFS or prop markets.

Scott Reichel grabbed Matt Olson OVER 0.5 singles at –110. Olson has quietly slapped at least one single in 10 straight games and 17 of his last 20 overall. He owns a .286 average (4-for-14) with multiple singles off veteran righty Charlie Morton, whose pitch-to-contact approach still surfaces despite solid recent form. Reichel likes the plus matchup, the consistency of Olson’s recent spray chart, and the near-even money price to extend the single streak to 11.

Just A Bet Outside advised continuing to attack Bryce Elder in the betting markets. Elder has fallen apart during his last three outings, surrendering 25 hits and 18 earned runs in only 10.2 innings. The host emphasized that hitters are teeing off on every pitch and Elder is showing no ability to miss bats or get out of trouble. Until Elder strings together at least one quality start, Steven plans to bet opposing team-total overs or first-five inning overs whenever the right-hander takes the mound, noting that bookmakers have not fully adjusted after last year’s breakout.

B Wade said he is fading rookie right-hander Didier Fuentes by playing his Over 4.5 Hits Allowed prop versus the red-hot Angels lineup. Fuentes has made only two big-league starts and was battered in both, coughing up six hits to Miami in five innings and eight hits to the Mets in just three frames while yielding 10 total runs. Wade noted that Los Angeles has been scorching for the last six weeks, regularly piling up knocks and runs, and sees no data point suggesting Fuentes can keep them below five hits.

Backing Atlanta, Cash Out Sports Picks cited Spencer Schwellenbach’s rise—11 K shutout of Boston and a 96-17 K/BB season line—against Jesus Luzardo’s disastrous June (5.85 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 20 IP) which included 8 runs to Toronto and 12 to Milwaukee. Team metrics favor Atlanta as well: opponents hit .233 against Braves pitching versus .246 against Philadelphia. With Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson and Marcell Ozuna all healthy, the tout expects the 37-44 Braves to capitalize and even the series by winning outright.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Braves moneyline, stressing the clear gap on the mound and recent form. Grant Holmes has posted a 3.48 ERA in four June starts, limiting hitters to a .233 average and surrendering only two earned runs over his last 12 innings. Across the diamond Griffin Canning owns a 5.66 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and has been tagged for 3, 6 and 4 earned runs in his three most recent outings. Atlanta also owns the better BABIP luck (.295 vs .278), indicating stronger underlying contact quality. While New York boasts a 28-12 home record and Atlanta is just 15-27 on the road, the tout noted the Braves have looked like the superior club the past two weeks and expects Holmes’ form to neutralize the venue edge. With the pitching mismatch too large to ignore, he advised laying the short price on Atlanta to take the series finale.

Reichel couldn’t pass on Atlanta at pick’em given the Braves’ 5-0 season record against New York and the Mets’ current 1-10 nosedive. Hurston Holmes (3.71 ERA) has limited opponents to two earned runs over his last two starts, while Griffin Canning has allowed 13 earned in his past three and owns a 4.95 ERA at Citi Field. New York is 11 games under .500 at home and looks lifeless following a mid-season peak, whereas the Braves—despite their own road woes—continue to "own this damn team," as Reichel put it. Until the Mets prove otherwise, he is auto-fading them and backing Atlanta’s marginally steadier form.

Drew Martin sided with the Braves at –105 in Thursday’s lone night game, largely because the Mets have cratered to 1-9 over their last 10 and their bullpen has imploded. He doubts Griffin Canning can play stopper after surrendering 14 runs across his past 14 innings and giving up seven earned in four frames versus Atlanta last season. On the flip side, 29-year-old Grant Holmes has racked up 20 strikeouts in his last two outings and owns a 97/65 K/Hit ratio over 85 innings; he also limited the Mets to one hit in their most recent meeting. With New York’s bats suddenly silent, Martin is happy to back the hotter arm, better form and steadier bullpen at a virtual coin-flip number.

It's The Final Round backed Riley for a single-hit prop in the same game. Griffin Canning’s .421 average allowed to righties in his last three turns creates the opening. Riley owns hits in eight of his past 10 contests and 18 of his last 21 overall. He’s 1-for-3 lifetime off Canning and carries a top-50 sweet-spot launch-angle ranking, which the tout emphasized as a sign of premium contact. Even with only a .267 average the past 10 games, the volume of hard contact and Canning’s current struggles make one hit the minimum expectation.

B Wade backed Marcell Ozuna to go over 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs. Although the slugger has cleared that number in only eight of his last 20 games, Wade called this a pure matchup play: Ozuna is 4-for-5 with two home runs off Thursday starter Griffin Canning, meaning he has produced multiple counting stats in almost every plate appearance against him. With Ozuna locked into the cleanup spot for a high-implied Atlanta lineup, Wade likes the 2.7x payout on Underdog.

Even after Acuna went 0-for-3 with two walks Tuesday, Lindquist is running it back with the 2-plus-total-bases prop. The matchup is against Mets spot-starter Didier Fuentes, whose 0.611 expected slugging and general inability to retire lefty-side hitters make him ripe for punishment in Truist Park. Lindquist called the pitching "bad" and the park a perfect backdrop for Acuna’s power/speed combo, noting the Braves star rarely goes consecutive games without an XBH. With Acuna still leading MLB in hard-hit rate and barrels per PA, the tout labeled the prop a strong bounce-back play.

Malcom Bamford laid the –150 with Atlanta because Spencer Strider finally looks like the dominant version from 2023. Since returning from the IL he has spun 12 innings of one-run ball with 21 strikeouts and a 38% whiff rate. Bamford contrasted that with a Mets club that has dropped eight of nine and still ranks bottom-seven in OPS with runners in scoring position. He admitted Atlanta’s own RISP woes but thinks Strider’s strikeout power neutralizes that weakness. Add in New York’s 4.79 bullpen ERA over the last two weeks and Bamford feels the money-line price should be closer to –170.

Kenny G said bettors should swallow the -150 juice on Atlanta because Spencer Strider looks ready to go on one of his classic heaters. Strider has fanned 21 hitters over his last two starts – 13 against Colorado and eight more in six dominant frames versus this very Mets lineup – while allowing just two total runs. Atlanta’s bullpen is trending up as well with a 3.70 ERA and fresher arms after an easy 7-1 win the last time Strider was on the bump. Offensively the Braves remain middling (22nd in runs, 20th in average) but Kenny noted that Ronald Acuna Jr. is finally squaring everything up and the club has scored 3, 3, 7, 2 and 7 in its last five, an uptick from earlier this month. Meanwhile New York hands the ball to Frankie Montas in his first outing off the IL; Kenny is skeptical Montas will work deep or have his usual velocity, meaning a suddenly shaky Mets pen (3.29 ERA but leaking lately) could handle bulk innings. The Mets have plated just 2-1-11-2-1-0 runs across their last six games and are "really, really struggling at the plate." Kenny acknowledged Atlanta’s ugly 13-26 road record and the Mets’ MLB-best 27-10 mark at Citi Field but still labeled Strider’s current form plus New York’s batting funk an "excellent spot" to back the Braves at -150.

JDBetsHQ advised laying the ‑135 road price on Atlanta’s moneyline at Citi Field. He laid out a clear two-pronged edge: the bats and the arms. Offensively the Braves are top-10 in runs, walks, OBP and RBI over their last 10, while the Mets rank dead last in slugging and bottom-third in most categories. On the mound, Atlanta sends strikeout machine Spencer Schwadenbach (2.8 ERA last five) against Paul Blackburn, whose three-earned-run average masks a boom-or-bust game log that swings between quality starts and blow-ups. With Atlanta walking more, striking out less, and pairing an explosive offense with the steadier pitcher, JD feels the modest road chalk is more than fair value and expects the Braves to grab the win.

Guy Boston Sports recommended attacking Spencer Schwellenbach in a revenge spot, either through the Mets moneyline at +120 or a Mets team-total over 4.5 runs. He noted New York saw Schwellenbach just six days ago, so the rookie’s fastball-heavy mix should look far less deceptive. The Mets rank 11th in runs above average versus four-seamers over the last 30 days, as well as 4th and 1st against cutters and splitters – the other two pitches Schwellenbach leans on. The one weapon that worries him is the slider, the lone offering the Mets grade poorly against, yet he still expects enough hard contact because Atlanta’s bullpen has been overworked and carries a 4.31 ERA in June. The handicap also factors in a classic ‘get-back’ narrative after the Braves swept New York last week; he believes Atlanta could be flat while New York’s bats play with urgency at home. He labeled it a quarter-unit play, emphasizing that fading Schwellenbach’s fastball command is the core thesis.

Razzle recommended loading up on Spencer Schwellenbach for tournament line-ups. New York is averaging only three runs and a shade over nine strikeouts per game across its last six contests. Schwellenbach fanned eight Mets in his most recent turn and has produced 8+ strikeouts in four of his past five starts while logging DFS scores of 23 and 30 DK points in that span. Although facing a club in back-to-back outings typically favors the hitters, Razzle trusts the rookie’s 97 mph heater/slider combo to overpower a lineup stuck in neutral. The ceiling makes him one of the few arms on this hot-weather slate who can push 25+ DK points.

Mark advised taking the Braves money-line at Citi Field. The Mets have dropped eight of their last ten and were recently swept by Atlanta, Philadelphia and Tampa. He doubts Paul Blackburn can be the spark New York needs and prefers riding Spencer Swalmbach and Atlanta’s superior bullpen, especially with the Braves coming off a loss to Miami. Mark’s philosophy: don’t bet on a cold team to suddenly break a skid, making Atlanta the only side he could play.

Just A Bet Outside laid out several angles backing Atlanta at –122 on the Citi Field money-line. First, he leaned on the long-standing Sunday-night-baseball fade: teams that travel after the ESPN game have posted a miserable record the following day, and the Mets fit that profile after a late return from a road trip. On the mound, rookie Spencer Schwellenbach ("Schwelly") owns 17 strikeouts in his last 16 innings and quietly worked seven frames with eight Ks against these same Mets last week, suggesting a quick second-look adjustment. By contrast, Christian Blackburn has surrendered 10 earned in his last eight innings and failed to finish the first in his lone home start. Offensively, Atlanta is trending up—5.2 runs per game over the last ten, four-plus in seven of those contests—while New York has scored two or fewer five times in the same span. With both bullpens rested, the handicap boils down to the hotter bats, the sharper starter, and a brutal travel spot for the home side. He recommended a half-unit wager on the Braves money line.

Dylan Rockford is backing Atlanta at –118 (would play to –135) and likes Over 8.5 runs in Monday’s Braves–Mets series opener. His case: Mets starter Paul Blackburn has surrendered 3+ earned runs in three straight outings, carries a 6.92 ERA, and faces a Braves lineup that has performed far better versus right-handed pitching. Rookie Spencer Schwellenbach just spun a complete game at Milwaukee and gives Atlanta a clear edge on the mound. Rockford noted a heat wave in Queens—temperatures pushing 100°F with wind blowing out to center—should boost run scoring, making the current total too low. He expects Atlanta’s bats to take advantage of the weather and Blackburn’s struggles while the Mets offense, fresh off an 11-run outburst, can chip in enough to get the game into double digits. Official plays: Braves moneyline and Over 8.5.

Cash Out Sports Picks grabbed Atlanta on the money-line, citing a club that has captured three of its last four series, including a sweep of New York last week. The Mets have lost eight of nine overall and three straight at home. Spencer Schellenbach has limited opponents to nine earned runs over his last 28.1 frames and owns a career 1.93 ERA versus the Mets. Opposite him, Paul Blackburn sports a 6.92 ERA, 1.69 WHIP and was tagged for four runs in fewer than four innings the last time he faced these Braves. Atlanta’s offense has plated five-plus in four of five, so the tout is sticking with the hotter lineup and far superior starter.

Razzle called Max Fried a priority spend-up. At Truist Park he owns a microscopic 0.46 HR/9 and sub-3% barrel rate this season. The visiting Orioles have slumped to a 25% K-rate and .291 OBP over the past two weeks. Fried’s only blemish is a slightly elevated walk rate, but the matchup’s power-suppression plus strikeout potential outweighs that. Razzle projects another 25-30 DK point outing, making Fried a cash-game anchor and GPP building block.

Lonte Smith is laying the short –135 with Atlanta, convinced Spencer Strider has started to look like himself again. Smith pointed to Strider’s sharper mechanics and growing comfort since returning from the IL, culminating in 13 strikeouts over six scoreless frames versus Colorado. He acknowledged that was ‘just the Rockies’ but stressed the Mets have fattened up on a soft diet of Washington, Colorado and the White Sox, going 10-4 in those series while getting swept by Tampa in between. Christian Holmes brings an impressive 2.87 ERA, but his contact profile has worsened—under four strikeouts in three of the last four starts and nine homers allowed over his past seven appearances after yielding none in his first seven. If Atlanta’s offense wakes up early, Smith sees the Braves pen slamming the door. He’d play the full-game over 8.5 as a secondary look given Holmes’ recent gopher-ball issues.

Scott Reichel took the plus-115 with the Mets, arguing that Spencer Strider’s six-inning, 13-strikeout domination of Colorado is a meaningless get-right spot until he proves it against a real lineup. Before that Coors Field lay-up, Strider carried a 5.62 ERA and had been rocked by the Nationals for four earned. Converted reliever Christian Holmes, meanwhile, owns a 2.87 ERA overall and is even better on the road (2.41). Reichel noted the Mets have quietly gone 4-3 versus the Dodgers and 5-1 against weak clubs during their recent surge, so the scheduling narrative isn’t enough to justify Atlanta as a –135 favorite. He expects Strider’s homer problem (nine allowed in his last seven starts prior to Colorado) to resurface and projected the Mets bullpen tandem of Reed-Diaz to close it out.

Lindquist called Atlanta –130 a ‘broken’ number now that Spencer Strider’s velocity is back. Last time out against Colorado he averaged 98 mph on 50 four-seamers and punched out 13 over eight scoreless frames, erasing concerns from his previous six-start dip. He expects that version of Strider to overwhelm a Mets lineup projecting Clay/Grant Holmes as the weakest rotation arm and flagged looming negative regression for New York’s over-performing ERA estimators. Given Strider’s 33% K-rate, 16% swinging-strike rate, and the Braves’ top-five bullpen behind him, Lindquist anticipates closing-line value and is officially on Atlanta moneyline.

Eric Lindquist expects at least eight strikeouts from Chris Sale and plans to attack the K ladder once numbers open. Sale has punched out 31.5 % of batters since May 1 and gets a Mets lineup that ranks bottom-10 in contact rate against left-handed pitching. Truist Park’s marine-layer-type conditions (wind in, modest temps, light rain) further boost swing-and-miss potential, and Lindquist called it “one of the best ballparks you could have being a lefty” in midsummer. He projects Sale for 7.9 Ks median, recommending overs at anything 7.5 or lower and sprinkling alt lines up to 10+ at plus money.

Razzle recommended locking in Spencer Schwellenbach as a tournament anchor. The rookie owns three nine-plus strike-out outings in his last four starts and has erupted for 37+ fantasy points twice during that stretch. In Truist Park he posts a 31% K-rate, 5% walk-rate and just 0.7 HR/9, all improvements over his road splits. The Mets are middle of the pack offensively but their 23.8% K-rate against righties offers a solid floor. Vegas installs Atlanta as –170 favorites with Schwellenbach carrying a 5.5 K-prop. Razzle cited the home dominance, improving pitch efficiency and Mets’ middling power as reasons to make Schwellenbach a staple in multi-entry builds.

B Wade Picks played Austin Riley over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs. Riley has cleared this in nine of his past 10 contests and 14 of his past 20. He owns a .391 average in 23 career at-bats versus left-hander David Peterson, roughly equivalent to eight or nine full games worth of data. Although Riley’s historical HRRBI hit rate against Peterson is only 50-50, Wade trusts the combination of current form and a long track record of barreling this specific pitcher to push him past the over.

B Wade Picks said Spencer Schwellenbach should stay under 5.5 hits allowed Tuesday. Schwellenbach has held opponents to that number in four of his last seven starts and, more importantly, dominated this same Mets lineup three times after last year's All-Star break (2, 3 and 4 hits surrendered and just two total earned runs across those outings). New York’s order is virtually unchanged except for the addition of Soto, so Wade expects the right-hander, who is at home, to continue that success. The play is a single-game prop that anchors his first parlay leg.

Kenny G predicted another strikeout clinic from Chris Sale, recommending the over on his K prop (likely 9.5) and touting him as an elite DFS anchor. Sale has a 2.79 ERA and has not surrendered more than one earned run in any of his last five starts while fanning 40 batters in 31 innings during that stretch. He now faces a Rockies offense that is dead last in runs, 29th in batting average, and 29th in OBP and will be without Coors Field’s altitude boost. Colorado is countering with Austin Gomber, who is making his first start off the IL, further increasing the chances that Sale pitches with a comfortable lead and stays on the mound deep enough to rack up strikeouts. With Atlanta’s bullpen improving (3.67 ERA) and the Braves favored at -350, Kenny sees the perfect storm for Sale to hit double-digit Ks yet again.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed Atlanta to win comfortably, noting multiple edges. The Braves have already out-scored Colorado 16-5 in the first two games, are 19-14 at Truist Park, and send red-hot ace Chris Sale to the mound after five straight starts of one earned run or fewer. Colorado counters with Austin Gomber, who is coming off the IL and likely on a pitch count. The Rockies are 6-30 on the road, their lineup is "in a deep slump," and their bullpen owns a 4.70 ERA. Until Colorado shows life, the tout argued, the only logical move is to bet Atlanta to win and cover the run-line.

Brad played the Braves team total over 5.5 runs. Atlanta exploded for 12 runs the previous night and, according to Brad, faces an even softer section of the Rockies bullpen today. He pointed out Colorado’s staff owns a league-worst 5.57 ERA and 1.53 WHIP, while Atlanta’s offense ranks top-three in hard-hit rate. He does not expect back-to-back slow starts, forecasting that the Braves’ depth and platoon advantage against multiple Rockies right-handers push them to at least six runs.

Brad faded Spencer Strider’s 8.5-strikeout prop, noting the right-hander has stayed under that number in five straight outings despite facing middling lineups. Books have inflated the total because it’s Coors Field against the Rockies, but Brad reminded listeners Colorado tagged Strider for four runs last night and owns merely a 22.3% K-rate at home—middle of the pack rather than atrocious. Given recent form and the altitude effect on breaking balls, Brad is betting that nine punch-outs is too tall an order.

Matt Perrault laid the 1.5 runs with Atlanta, explaining that Bryce Elder’s 3.62 ERA masks how competitive his outings have been—three of his last four starts were one-run losses despite giving up no more than three earned each time. He expects that to flip against a Rockies squad that owns a disastrous 6-28 road record and now has to fly cross-country after Thursday’s miracle win. Perrault called Colorado’s starter German Marquez the perfect get-right spot: an 8.82 road ERA, 1-4 record, .353 opponent average, and 33 earned runs in 33.2 away innings. With Atlanta ‘absolutely desperate’ to stop Elder’s losing streak and the Braves’ offense ranking top-10 in ISO at Truist Park, Perrault feels confident the run-line price captures far more value than the heavily juiced moneyline.

For the final parlay piece, Perrault is again fading Colorado and playing the Braves moneyline. He noted the Rockies’ disastrous 6-28 road record and their bullpen meltdown in San Francisco that blew a 7-3 ninth-inning lead. Atlanta’s lineup, already top-10 in ISO at Truist Park, now faces a staff allowing 5.8 runs per road game. Perrault’s strategy is simple: keep fading the league’s worst road club until the market adjusts.

It's The Final Round observed Matt Olson is 3-for-3 lifetime against German Marquez and has hits in eight of ten games, advising bettors to consider his hit prop despite the smaller sample.

Lindquist pegged Atlanta at -138 as a bargain, stating he would bet the Braves moneyline up to -150. Milwaukee turns to Chad Patrick as a bulk guy, and Lindquist highlighted glaring issues: 21-degree average launch angle, virtually no ground-ball profile, and a pitch mix (cutter/four-seamer) generating just a 17% combined whiff rate. Patrick’s four-seam and cutter run values are outlier-positive so far, a number Lindquist labeled “unrepeatable” and due for sharp negative regression against Atlanta’s elite power bats. Spencer Schwellenbach, meanwhile, has shown genuine improvement—upping his slider usage and shaving his xFIP to 3.48 over his last three turns. Even if Schwellenbach only gives five quality frames, Atlanta’s rested high-leverage bullpen (Iglesias, Minter, Johnson all unused Tuesday) gives them a late-inning edge. Lindquist therefore sees the current price as at least 12 cents light and moved the Braves to his “like” column.

Just A Bet Outside hammered Max Fried’s under 2.5 earned-runs prop. The Braves left-hander has given up two or fewer runs in 12 of 13 starts, owns a microscopic 0.94 WHIP and has surrendered only five homers in 81 innings. Kansas City’s lineup has flopped against southpaws all season – nine of the 11 left-handed starters they have faced have held them to two or fewer earned runs. Over the last three weeks the Royals rank 18th in wRC+, 14th in slugging and carry the fourth-lowest walk rate versus lefties, limiting their chances to create traffic. Fried’s elite command, ability to avoid hard contact (58 hits allowed all year) and the Royals’ free-swinging profile convinced the tout that another quality outing is extremely likely, making the UNDER 2.5 ER a playable single or the anchor leg of parlays.

Razzle labeled Max Fried the steady high-end play at $10.5k. Fried logged 25 DK points in his earlier meeting with Kansas City, tossing seven Ks and earning the win. The Royals rarely whiff, but Fried’s immaculate command and run-prevention skill set make him the safest floor on the slate. Razzle noted Fried has allowed two or fewer earned runs in seven of his last eight starts, so he’s comfortable anchoring cash games or single-entry GPPs around the southpaw even without elite strikeout expectation.

Razzle called Chris Sale the top raw-points play on the slate. Sale’s K prop sits at 7.5 and he has scored 23+ DraftKings points in four straight (six of his last seven). Facing a Milwaukee lineup that skews left-handed, Sale gains the platoon edge and should exploit the Brewers’ 27% strike-out rate versus southpaws. Razzle trusts the consistency—34% K rate and 1.02 WHIP—making Sale a cash-game anchor and GPP building block.

Chris Ruffolo backed Atlanta on the moneyline, pointing to a clear edge on the mound and in the bullpen. He noted Chris Sale looks like his vintage self, surrendering just two total runs with 22 strikeouts over his last 20 innings. Sale’s recent game log includes 6.2 shutout frames with 10 Ks against Cincinnati and 7 innings of two-run ball with 10 Ks at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Against Arizona specifically, Sale owns a 2.61 ERA across his last four meetings, all of which lasted at least five innings. Ruffolo acknowledged the Diamondbacks have struck out only 16.5% of the time versus lefties over the past two weeks (second-lowest in MLB) and carry a top-10 batting average in that split, yet he still distrusts their overall consistency. He sees the bigger separation in the bullpens: Atlanta relievers sport a 3.38 ERA over the past week, while Arizona’s pen has ballooned to 5.61, resembling the shaky unit from prior seasons. With Sale likely to work deep and the Braves relief corps in better form, Ruffolo recommended laying the price with Atlanta.

Kenny G labeled Atlanta –175 a potential "lock of the day" because Chris Sale is dealing like vintage Boston Chris Sale. Over his last five starts the southpaw owns a 1.62 ERA and 31.8% strikeout rate, most recently blanking the potent Phillies for six innings (8 K, 2 H). Merrill Kelly heads the other way with back-to-back clunkers (10 ER in 9 IP vs STL and WAS) and a 3.78 ERA that’s moving north. Arizona’s biggest weakness—its 5.23 bullpen ERA (25th in MLB)—magnifies any early deficit, whereas Atlanta’s bullpen sits a respectable 3.65. Kenny admitted the Braves offense is scuffling (22nd in runs), yet Truist Park has still seen them post a 17-11 home mark. He expects Sale’s swing-and-miss arsenal to quiet a Diamondbacks lineup that relies on contact and already struck out nine times in their last meeting with him (8-2 ATL win). With a decisive edge on the mound and in relief, Kenny is happy to eat the –175 juice, calling Braves ML the safest play on Wednesday’s slate.

Just A Bet Outside said to fade Chris Sale’s strikeout prop and take Under 6.5 Ks when Atlanta hosts Arizona. Sale has missed this number in 4 of 12 starts, and all four unders came against contact-heavy lineups ranked top-10 in lowest K-rate versus lefties. The Diamondbacks are even stingier, sitting first in MLB with an 18% K-rate against southpaws since May 1 (15.5% over the last three weeks). They already held Sale to four punch-outs earlier this season, forcing 104 pitches in only five innings and limiting him to a 10.6% swinging-strike rate—his second-worst mark of the year. Arizona has kept 16 of 17 opposing left-handed starters below this 6.5-K line in 2024, including high-whiff arms like Carlos Rodon, Jesus Luzardo, Shota Imanaga and Sale himself. With the D-backs fouling pitches off, extending counts, and ranking top-10 in wRC+ versus lefties, the host projects Sale for just 4–6 strikeouts and believes the +104 price should be closer to −120.

Razzle called Chris Sale the premier pay-up on the 10-game night slate. Sale already fanned 10 D-backs earlier this year and owns a 32 % strikeout rate against left-heavy lineups. DraftKings hung a 6.5 K prop juiced to the over, signaling strong expectations. Although Truist Park has boosted homers for him (1.4 HR/9 at home), his overall xFIP is identical home and away and he has been unlucky not to record a home win yet. Arizona’s wRC+ drops from 110 vs RHP to 91 vs LHP, reinforcing the matchup edge. Razzle plans to build around Sale in both cash games and GPPs, counting on the slate-best strikeout ceiling.