Kenny G said he is leaning toward laying the juice with Baltimore at -160. He expects Trevor Rodgers to stay dialed-in after opening the season 2-0 with a 1.57 ERA and throwing 6⅔ scoreless innings against Atlanta last time out. Miami’s sticks have completely cooled—two total runs in their last three games—and the Fish are just 19th in MLB scoring despite ranking 10th in batting average. Kenny acknowledged that both bullpens are mediocre (Orioles 4.50 ERA, Marlins 4.07), so the matchup boils down to Rodgers versus Jansen Junk. Although Junk tossed six shutout frames against Cincinnati, Kenny noted that Baltimore carries momentum from three straight wins and faces a Miami club that is 22-24 on the road and 25-20-1 to the over (suggesting plenty of crooked numbers against that pen). With the Birds still priced under -165, Kenny labeled the Orioles a worthwhile money-line play, albeit a "slight lean" rather than a full lock.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Orioles on the moneyline, noting that Baltimore has ripped off five wins in its last six and is finally playing to preseason expectations. Trevor Rogers enters with a sparkling 1.57 ERA, only one homer allowed, and enough length to spare the bullpen. Facing his former Marlins team adds extra juice. Miami counters with Janson Junk, who rarely reaches the sixth inning and has seen the Fish drop three of his last five turns while the offense musters little support. With Baltimore’s starters dealing, bats delivering timely power, and Miami’s recent skid, the tout labeled the Orioles the clear side.

Eric Lindquist said to take Ryan O'Hearn over 1.5 combined hits, runs and RBIs against Miami. O'Hearn is locked into the clean-up spot and will face Edward Cabrera, a right-hander with shaky command who owns a double-digit walk rate. Lindquist pointed out that Cabrera’s volatility keeps Baltimore’s lineup on the bases and gives O’Hearn extra RBI chances. The Orioles avoided using O’Hearn in the first half of Thursday’s double-header so he comes in rested, and the ballpark boost of Camden Yards means a single gap shot can clear the number. With Dean Kremer expected to go for Baltimore, Lindquist expects a positive run environment that raises O’Hearn’s counting-stat floor.

Brad Francis took Dean Kramer under 4.5 strikeouts. He said he isn’t a Kramer believer, expects the Marlins—who have been swinging well in their last 15 road games—to knock him out early, and doubts the Baltimore right-hander lasts long enough to pile up Ks.

Lindquist advised betting the Orioles moneyline in the first game of Thursday’s Mets–Orioles double-header. He expects negative regression for Mets left-hander David Peterson and highlighted that Camden Yards now favors Baltimore’s own left-handed bats. The Mets will be shorthanded for game two and could be forced to dip into Triple-A depth, while Baltimore retains flexibility to attack whichever spot starter New York selects. Lindquist also reminded listeners that Sagano, the likely Mets bulk arm, still owns an expected ISO north of .200 versus lefties, keeping the matchup tilted toward Baltimore.

Matt Perrault backed the Orioles moneyline at +135 despite their combustible bullpen. He pointed out that starter Shintaro Sugano has seen Baltimore win four of his last six outings, and the O’s offense has shown it can erase pitching mistakes (22-run game two home starts ago). The real angle is fading David Peterson on the road: the Mets have dropped Peterson’s last three away starts by scores of 9-1, 7-1 and 5-4, and the left-hander carries a 4.44 ERA with a 1-4 record and .249 opponent average when traveling. Perrault acknowledges Baltimore’s pen can implode (they just coughed up a 6-2 lead), but believes the plus-money price overrides that risk given New York’s anemic results behind Peterson outside Citi Field.

Scott Reichel grabbed Baltimore at +130, arguing the Mets remain overpriced after a brief two-game burst against the Yankees. He questioned laying –155 behind Kodai Senga, whose 4.42 road ERA and 11.3% walk rate leave the door open for trouble. Reichel pointed out that Baltimore’s OPS jumps 44 points at Camden Yards and that the Orioles bullpen owns a 3.41 ERA compared to New York’s 4.26 on the road. With Dylan Rockford already showing value to the under, Reichel liked pairing that market lean with a play on the home dog, projecting the O’s no worse than +115.

Bill Harrelson advised taking Tyler O'Neill UNDER 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs on Underdog. Harrelson noted O'Neill has stayed below this line in 18 of 26 games this season (69% under) and managed the over only eight times. The left-handed matchup is the key: O'Neill owns a disastrous .115 batting average versus southpaws this year compared to .193 overall, and he faces Mets lefty David Peterson, against whom he has just one hit in three career plate appearances. O'Neill averages roughly four plate appearances per game, but Harrelson pointed out that in his last three meetings with New York he produced exactly one hit/run/RBI each time, never clearing the line. With Underdog the only book hanging this prop, Harrelson likes the value on the fade.

Cash Out Sports Picks said the Baltimore Orioles are the value side in Sunday’s series finale at Truist Park. He stressed that Atlanta starter Holmes owns an excellent 2.75 ERA at home yet still carries a 2-4 record because the Braves lineup gives him little run support at Truist. Meanwhile rookie left-hander Rogers has a 3.21 road ERA with 14 strikeouts in 14 road innings and Baltimore has taken four of the last five meetings between these clubs. Even with an uneven overall away record, the O’s have won as many games on the road as at Camden Yards, and motivation should still be intact as they try to sweep. All of that led him to recommend the Orioles money line.

Drew Martin said the Orioles are his biggest Sunday wager because Trevor Rogers finally looks like the 2021 version of himself. Rogers owns a 2.00 ERA and has surrendered just 13 hits in 22 innings since returning from injury. Baltimore’s bats are scorching (top-5 wRC+ over the last week) while Atlanta’s injury-riddled lineup sits bottom-10 in the same span. Holmes counters with a 3.50 ERA but has dropped four of his last five decisions. Baltimore’s bullpen metrics also grade out better. Martin expects the market to hang a playable number and recommends backing the O’s in the early 11:35 a.m. tilt.

Matt Perrault grabbed the Orioles money line at +145 to finish a three-game sweep of Atlanta. He acknowledged Baltimore’s poor 20-27 road record but argued the matchup favors them: the Braves rank in the bottom half of MLB in average and RBIs versus left-handed pitching, and they face southpaw Trevor Rogers, who owns a 2.05 ERA through four appearances with the Orioles winning three of those games. Rogers has thrown 8 scoreless innings vs Texas and 6⅓ shutout frames vs Boston, allowing just two earned over his last 11⅔ innings. Baltimore has already taken the first two games 3-2 and 9-6, while the Braves are "reeling" at 24-21 overall. Perrault suggested bettors can even live-hedge if Baltimore jumps ahead, but he sees enough value in the pre-game +145 price to fire on the O’s.

Scott Reichel is ready to grab Baltimore at any plus price because Dean Kremer appears to have solved his early-season issues. Over his last three starts Kremer has thrown 17⅔ innings with only two earned runs, leaning more on his splitter to miss bats. Atlanta is still tagged by the market like a 90-win club despite sitting eight games under .500, and Reichel notes the Braves’ mediocre 24-19 home record offers little intimidation. Without Spencer Strider or Max Fried on the mound, he expects Atlanta to be over-valued simply on name recognition. If oddsmakers hang Baltimore anywhere north of +110, Reichel will be on the O’s money-line.

Bill Harrelson recommended taking Colton Cowser to collect at least one total base Saturday against Atlanta. Cowser has hit this number in 8 of his last 10 and 14 of his last 20 games, logging multi-base outings of 4, 4, and 6 during that stretch. He is 20-for-29 (69%) on the prop this season after a 58% hit rate across 151 games last year. Harrelson highlighted that the rookie is averaging 4.2 plate appearances and 2.2 total bases over his last 15 contests. Although Cowser’s split versus left-handed pitching is weaker, he faces a pitcher whose numbers are actually worse against lefty bats, creating a net advantage. Market signals back the play—ESPN Bet, Fliff, and Sleeper are heavily juicing the over while Underdog is the lone book hanging a line. Given the combination of recent form, volume, and pitcher matchup, Harrelson is confident Cowser will surpass 0.5 total bases.

Scott Reichel went right back to his favorite fade, Tyler O’Neill UNDER 0.5 hits at –115. O’Neill hasn’t stepped on an MLB field since May 15 and was already hitless in his final five games before landing on the IL. His return assignment is brutal: Spencer Strider, who has given up fewer than six total hits in five straight outings while mixing 100-mph heaters with a wipe-out slider. Reichel expects O’Neill to be late on velocity and off-balance on speed changes after the long layoff, calling it an ideal spot to keep riding the no-hit train.

Malcom Bamford took the Baltimore team-total under, expecting Jacob deGrom to dominate yet again. DeGrom is 8-2 with MLB’s second-best WHIP and has strung together 13 consecutive starts of two or fewer earned runs. On June 25 he carried a no-hitter into the 8th against these same Orioles. While Bamford acknowledged Charlie Morton’s resurgence—back-to-back strong months and improved swing-and-miss numbers—he believes the more actionable angle is simply betting that Baltimore fails to solve deGrom. He is comfortable fading the O’s lineup that mustered only one hit in that previous matchup and envisions a 3-1 or 3-0 Texas win cashing the team-total under with room to spare.

Drew Martin grabbed Baltimore at +154 against Jacob deGrom and the Rangers, arguing the market is overweighting the pitching matchup. The Orioles just plated 30 runs in a three-game set versus Tampa Bay, ranking top-5 in wRC+ over the last week and profiling as a top-10 unit versus right-handed pitching all season. Martin noted Charlie Morton’s 2.60 ERA since early May and sparkling 49-12 K/BB ratio after rejoining the rotation (4-0 in that span), suggesting his season-long ERA is misleading due to early struggles. Texas, meanwhile, is below .500 and scored only twice in a weekend loss to Seattle. With a low total of 7, Martin believes every run matters and likes Baltimore’s live-underdog profile.

The Bettor Mark advised taking the Orioles at –110 on the moneyline because Patrick Corbin’s early-season bounce-back is officially unraveling. Mark noted that Corbin has surrendered a .277 opponents’ batting average during June—nearly 40 points higher than his April/May mark—and is getting barreled more frequently while failing to work deep (no start longer than 5.0 IP in three straight outings). His most recent turn saw nine hits and three earned runs allowed to Baltimore despite the Birds sitting middle-of-the-pack in June wRC+. Mark expects that regression to continue in hitter-friendly Globe Life Field, especially with Baltimore’s bats heating up after a 7-3 run that featured four games of 5-plus runs. With Texas still missing key bullpen pieces and Trevor Rogers providing a stable five-and-fly opposite Corbin, Mark labeled Orioles ML his second official best bet of the slate.

Just A Bet Outside likes Baltimore’s team-total over 1.5 runs as the parlay’s de-juicer, detailing how Patrick Corbin’s opponents have reached two or more runs in 12 of his 14 starts before the bullpen even joins the party. Corbin has surrendered nine earned runs on 15 hits across his last 10 innings, and the Rangers relief corps is gassed after back-to-back extra-inning games. The Orioles have quietly improved against lefties: they have scored two-plus runs in eight of their last 10 games started by a southpaw and own the 11th-best wRC+ against left-handers during the past three weeks. With guaranteed ninth-inning at-bats on the road, the host views two runs as a very low bar.

Bill Harrelson targeted Ramon Laureano for MORE than 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs versus Texas. Laureano is on fire, eclipsing the mark in 7 of his last 10 and each of his last five contests, posting game lines of 3-2-8-4-4 HRR while averaging 4.4 plate appearances. He has two straight overs against the Rangers and is 1-for-3 (.333) lifetime off starter Patrick Corbin. Corbin’s .272 opponent average against right-handed hitters is notably worse than his overall line, giving Laureano the platoon edge. Although Laureano has only hit this prop in 43% of games this year, Harrelson emphasized the current form and favorable matchup. Books are leaning over as well—Fliff, DraftKings, and Sleeper all list it juiced toward the over. With Laureano’s recent surge and Corbin’s struggles versus righties, Harrelson thinks the streak continues.

Razzle sees Trevor Rogers as a quality SP2. The lefty just stifled this same Texas offense and now gets them again after a full week of rest. Rogers’ 4.5 K-prop is light given he has cleared that number in two of three outings and faces a Rangers squad missing several right-handed power bats. Razzle expects a 6-inning, 6-strike-out line with win upside at sub-$7K pricing.

Cash Out Sports Picks urged bettors to grab the Orioles moneyline in what he labeled a mis-priced matchup. Trevor Rogers has allowed just three runs on 10 hits in 16.2 IP across three starts and blanked Texas for eight innings in last Monday’s 6-0 win. Conversely, Patrick Corbin has imploded: 21 hits and 12 runs over his last 15 frames, ballooning to a 5.48 ERA in June. The Rangers have dropped four of six and sit 25th in runs, 28th in several key hitting metrics, now missing injured sluggers Wyatt Langford and Jake Berger. Baltimore is 20-13 in its last 33 games and owns the eighth-best team wOBA over the past week. With a decisive edge on the mound and at the plate, the tout called backing Baltimore “a straightforward decision.”

B Wade Picks said Gunnar Henderson is a strong play to clear 1.5 combined hits, runs, and RBI. Although Henderson is 0-for-his-last-5 on the prop, Wade noted he rarely stays cold for long and owns big right-handed splits. Against Friday’s starter Ryan Pepiot (R), Henderson is 3-for-9 with a homer. Wade also pointed to Henderson’s domination of Tampa: he has cashed this line in 12 of the past 15 meetings and in 3 of 4 games during a four-game set two weeks ago, recording at least one hit in all four contests. With a friendly platoon edge and a proven track record against both the pitcher and the Rays, Wade expects Henderson to snap the mini-slump.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Orioles money-line, stressing how little help Patrick Corbin can expect from a Texas lineup that ranks 27th in hits, 26th in runs, and has scored only 17 total runs in its last six games. Corbin has surrendered three-plus earned runs in five of his previous seven outings and the Rangers have dropped seven of his last ten starts while stumbling to a 15-24 road record. Trevor Rogers’ only real blemish this season was a wild, three-walk start against Tampa Bay, but he now sees a Rangers lineup that sits 26th in walks drawn. At Camden Yards, Baltimore averages 8-plus hits and a .250 team BA, giving Rogers the run support Corbin rarely sees. All of that pushed the tout to ride Baltimore at home.

B Wade is betting Gunnar Henderson to record at least one single (over 0.5). The 22-year-old has notched a single in 10 straight games and 14 of his last 20. Versus the Rays he is 12-for-15 on this prop lifetime and owns a 4-for-12 (.333) line against Wednesday starter Taj Bradley, who still sports a 4+ ERA and 1.30 WHIP even as other Tampa arms have heated up. Wade likes Henderson’s recent shift toward contact hitting and says the combination of form, matchup and history makes the single prop one of the safest spots on the board.

Just A Bet Outside wagered that Gunnar Henderson records at least one hit, anchoring the first leg of his hitter parlay. Henderson rides an 11-game hit streak, batting .373 in June and .346 over the last week. He torches right-handed pitching (.319 AVG, .534 SLG, seven of eight homers) and is 4-for-12 lifetime off Taj Bradley. Bradley’s 10% walk rate and modest home splits make him vulnerable at Tropicana, which historically plays neutral for contact. The tout expects Henderson’s elite bat speed to keep humming and cash the single-hit prop.

Lindquist circled Ryan O’Hearn’s home-run prop at anything longer than +420. Zack Littell leans heavily on a middling slider, the exact pitch O’Hearn punishes—he carries a .390 xwOBA and three of Lindquist’s biggest HR scores of the season. Camden Yards’ visiting dugout yields to the spacious confines of Tropicana Field, but Lindquist notes it still grades as a top-10 park for lefty pull power. With Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman appropriately priced, O’Hearn becomes the value way to attack Littell’s primary offering.

Eric Lindquist urged bettors to smash Cedric Mullins to homer if books hang +350 or longer. The forecast calls for 93°F and swamp-like humidity that will keep Tropicana’s roof open, a scenario Lindquist called “one of the best hitting environments we’ve seen dropped into that park.” Mullins brings a 40 % pull rate and 16 ° average launch angle versus right-hand pitching, traits that should play perfectly against Ryan Pepiot, whose four-seam/split combo yields a 41 % fly-ball rate. With warm, dense air adding extra carry and Mullins locked into the leadoff spot, Lindquist labeled the prop a +EV dart he plans to fire the moment odds post.

Eric Lindquist said Jackson Holliday’s home-run prop is worth an auto-bet at +350 or better given Monday’s freakish hitting conditions in St. Petersburg. Weather models show 93°F with 65-75 % humidity inside an opened Tropicana Field roof, effectively turning the park into a launching pad. Lindquist highlighted Ryan Pepiot’s 17° average allowed launch angle at Triple-A and the fact the Rays right-hander relies heavily on elevated four-seamers—exactly the pitch profile Holliday punishes (45 % hard-hit rate vs high heaters in Double-A/Triple-A data). With warm, moisture-laden air dramatically boosting carry and Baltimore’s rookie batting from the left side against Pepiot, Lindquist views any +350 or longer number as a clear positive-EV swing for bettors hunting long-ball tickets.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Orioles moneyline because Tyler Anderson’s ugly 5.58 road ERA and .262 opponent average simply cannot be ignored. Baltimore counters with rookie Sugano, who owns a 3.23 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and already carved up this Angels lineup a month ago (7.1 IP, 3 H, 1 ER). Sugano has tightened his home-run suppression of late, and the handicap leans on Baltimore’s far more trustworthy late-inning relief against an Angels bullpen lugging a 5.54 ERA. The tout trusts the Orioles to win the battle of bullpens once the starters exit.

Cash Out Sports Picks leaned to Baltimore on the moneyline because Charlie Morton has been sharp (3.49 ERA, 1.20 WHIP over his last 28.1 innings, two earned runs or fewer in two of his last three) while Angels starter Jack Kachinovich is struggling with a 5.91 ERA and 1.80 WHIP, allowing four earned runs in four straight starts. He pointed to the Orioles’ .291 BABIP versus the Angels’ league-worst .273, Baltimore’s recent 3-1 record against L.A., and the road/home split (Angels 18-18 away, Orioles 13-19 at home but improving). With the more trustworthy arm and recent head-to-head success, the tout preferred Baltimore.

Kenny G leaned toward Baltimore at –164, citing a pitching matchup that favors Charlie Morton over Angels rookie Jack Kahanoitz. Morton has surrendered six earned runs over his last 15 innings and previously tossed two scoreless frames against L.A. in May, while Kahanoitz has coughed up exactly four earned runs in each of his last four outings and carries a 5.61 ERA. The Halos bullpen remains a mess with a 5.54 ERA (third-worst), giving the Orioles a late-game edge even though their own pen still sits bottom-five. Offensively, Los Angeles has been hot—tallying 6, 2, 7, 2, 8, 5 and 9 runs during its recent 5-1 stretch—but Kenny noted they are still just 18th in runs, 28th in OBP and 27th in average on the year. Baltimore’s lineup ranks 25th in runs and 24th in OBP but has shown incremental improvement. With home field (Angels 18-18 road; Orioles 13-19 home) and the more reliable starter, Kenny believes Baltimore is the correct side, though he admitted the –164 tag is steep and better suited for parlay inclusion than a straight wager.

Just A Bet Outside flagged Ryan O’Hearn as an elite left-handed bat to attack Casey Mize with. O’Hearn has a hit in 32 of 46 starts versus right-handed pitching, slashing .333/.545 with a gaudy 174 wRC+. He is already 6-for-11 with two homers lifetime off Mize. Combine that history with the current version of Mize (see earlier taek: command issues, 25 baserunners in 13 IP) and hitter-friendly weather in Baltimore (mid-80s temps, breeze out) and Stephen views O’Hearn overs—1+ hit, over 1.5 total bases, or Fantasy/DFS usage—as strong plus-EV plays.

B Wade likes Ryan O'Hearn to exceed 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs against Casey Mize and the Tigers. O'Hearn owns a 6-for-11 (.545) career line with two home runs off Mize, who is 6-1 with a 2.90 ERA. O'Hearn is batting .323 versus right-handers overall this season and was on a hot streak before a quiet game Tuesday. Wade expects the batter-pitcher dominance and platoon advantage to show up again and is betting the over.

Cash Out Sports Picks said Baltimore is the right side in the series opener because of the mound mismatch and recent form. He pointed out that Cade Poevich has allowed two or fewer earned runs in three of his last four starts while the club itself has been playing its best baseball over its last three series. In contrast, Detroit is forced to use fill-in starter Sawyer Jipson-Long, who was tagged for five hits and three earned runs in only 3.2 innings during his first big-league outing against the White Sox. Although the Tigers boast a 20-15 road record, the tout stressed that Baltimore’s familiarity with Camden Yards plus Poevich’s current command tilt the matchup toward the Orioles, making their moneyline worth backing.

Lonte Smith grabbed the Orioles at +120 and paired it with the full-game Over 8. His thesis is that neither starter can be trusted. Emerson Hancock carries a 5.64 ERA, has surrendered five homers in his last four outings, and owns a 1.57 WHIP that screams traffic. Baltimore’s lineup, batting .260 over the past ten games and .250 versus right-handers on the season, should feast on all that contact. Cade Povich is equally unpredictable—three earned or fewer in four of seven MLB starts but 17 runs combined in the other three—so Lonte expects Seattle to scratch out plenty as well. With both clubs 6-5 to the over in their respective starter’s games and Hancock yielding six-plus hits in four of his last six, Smith projected a 6-4 type score line and said the O’s are the livelier side while both offenses drag this total north of eight.

Bettor Mark said he is backing the Orioles on the first-five money line at +110 in Seattle. He pointed out that the Mariners own bottom-five production against left-handed pitching and now draw rookie southpaw Cade Povich, while Baltimore gets right-hander Emerson Hancock and a bullpen that has struggled to strand runners. The wager pushes if tied after five, a wrinkle he likes because the Orioles are 7-2-1 in their last ten first-five money-line bets. Mark added that Baltimore just scored five runs in the pitcher-friendly ballpark on Tuesday, suggesting they have "figured something out" offensively. The combination of a favorable platoon edge, recent form, and plus money makes it a play he called a "sneaky little bet."

Razzle mentioned Cade Povich as a sneaky tournament play because of his raw strikeout ability (27 % K rate, 100-pitch leash) and better results on the road (3.10 ERA vs 5.60 at Camden). The Mariners chase more than league average, boosting K potential, but Povich’s 11 % walk rate and matchup with Julio Rodriguez make him volatile. Razzle plans to keep exposure limited to large-field contests where 7-plus strikeouts could break the slate if Povich can survive the free passes.

Zerillo flagged a 47-to-1 price on Baltimore to finish exactly as the AL’s No. 6 seed as the best way to attack their playoff case. The Orioles are only nine games out despite a miserable .381 winning percentage driven by a lineup performing at what he called its 10th-percentile projection. With Colton Cowser back and Jordan Westburg nearing a return, he expects the offense to climb toward a 55% win rate the rest of the way. Because their starting pitching is bad but unlikely to stay historically awful, Zerillo thinks Baltimore’s most realistic path is sneaking in as the final wild card; he noted straight playoff odds are just 18-1, making the 47-1 six-seed exacta the far superior risk-reward play.

John Venezia said Jackson Holliday should not be sitting on any waiver wire. Holliday is still available in roughly 27% of Yahoo leagues even though he has caught fire in May, slashing .287/.345/.474 with 5 home runs, 16 RBI, and an 819 OPS. Venezia pointed to Holliday’s 326 BABIP and 118 WRC+ as proof the underlying skills are legit rather than fluky. The former 1.1 pick also benefits from hitting in a loaded Orioles lineup that should offer plenty of run-production opportunities. Venezia views Holliday as a long-term fantasy cornerstone who is already producing and needs to be rostered everywhere right now.

Kenny G circled Baltimore as a live underdog at +135 in Seattle, largely because George Kirby’s early-season implosion gives the O’s a massive pitching edge. Kirby has been hammered for 12 earned across 9.2 innings (11.42 ERA) in two starts, both blowout losses, while Baltimore counters with Tomoyuki Sugano (3.23 ERA, quality outings in 6 of 9 appearances). Kenny added that Sugano hasn’t faced the swing-and-miss-prone Mariners, a factor that could favor the newcomer the first time through the order. Seattle’s offense ranks 26th in average and 24th in slugging after a hot first week, whereas Baltimore’s lineup, though only 25th in runs overall, is coming off a confidence-boosting sweep of the White Sox. He also likes the OVER 7.5 because Baltimore could "clear it themselves" against Kirby and a middling M’s bullpen, but the primary taek is taking Orioles money-line as a potential “dog of the day.”

It's The Final Round backed Jackson Holliday in virtually every standard prop category (hits, total bases, Hits+Runs+RBI) against George Kirby. Kirby has made only two starts and has been shelled in both: 8.2 IP, 13 H, 11 ER, 3 HR, 1.85 WHIP. Left-handed hitters in particular are tearing him up at a .348 clip. Holliday, a lefty, is batting .288 versus right-handers on the season and an even hotter .320 over the last week. Recent prop results via Outlier: hits over 8/10, total bases over 1.5 in 4/6, Hits+Runs+RBI over 1.5 in 7/10. The tout suggested taking any of those overs or parlaying a basic "to record a hit" with another favorite because Kirby’s inability to miss barrels from either side of the dish makes Holliday one of the slate’s safest floor/ceiling combos.

Brad Francis hammered Charlie Morton under 4.5 strikeouts at plus money. He labeled Morton ‘the worst starting pitcher in the league’ and can’t believe he’s still in the rotation. Despite facing a strikeout-prone White Sox squad, Morton’s recent velocity dip and command issues have kept him below five punch-outs in most outings. Francis wants to keep riding that trend, especially with Chicago’s bats waking up.

Brad Francis hammered Charlie Morton under 4.5 strikeouts at plus money. He labeled Morton ‘the worst starting pitcher in the league’ and can’t believe he’s still in the rotation. Despite facing a strikeout-prone White Sox squad, Morton’s recent velocity dip and command issues have kept him below five punch-outs in most outings. Francis wants to keep riding that trend, especially with Chicago’s bats waking up.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended betting the full-game over in Saturday’s White Sox–Orioles clash. He acknowledged the opener produced only three total runs but pointed out that seven of the last ten meetings have sailed over the number with one push. Both pitching staffs own season ERAs north of 4.00, suggesting plenty of traffic on the bases. Chicago games have gone over in five of their last ten outings, a stretch in which the Sox surrendered five-plus runs six different times. Baltimore mirrors that pattern, cashing six overs in its last ten while also yielding at least five runs per game in those contests. With shaky rotations, middle-of-the-pack bullpens, and weather warming at Camden Yards, he projected a return to the double-digit scoring norm between these clubs and labeled the over the best way to attack the matchup.

He recommended the Orioles moneyline. Baltimore has won eight of the last ten against Chicago and owns a 4-2 record at Camden Yards in that span. Dean Kremer has allowed only 10 runs across 30.1 May innings and boasts a 2.50 home ERA with opponents hitting just .206. Neither roster inspires confidence overall, but the Orioles are enjoying their best week of 2025 and catch the Sox during a lethargic road swing. Given Chicago’s 2-8 skid versus AL East teams and Kremer’s sharp home splits, Baltimore is the play.

Eric Lindquist said to keep hammering the UNDER on Zach Eflin’s strike-out prop Friday on the South Side. Eflin’s whiff rate has cratered – he owns a 13.1 % K-rate in his last three outings and sits at just 19.6 % for 2024 after posting 26.5 % a year ago. He managed only one punch-out against Boston last week despite the Red Sox ranking top-10 in strike-outs. Lindquist will fire UNDER 3.5 Ks at even money or better, or UNDER 4.5 all the way to –145, noting that books even dangled a rogue 5.5 earlier in the week. He brushed off concerns about the White Sox lineup, saying the underlying swing-and-miss data simply is not there for Eflin right now.

LM Tipster grabbed Orioles moneyline because Zach Eflin (3-2, 5.40 ERA) finally looked healthy last start, punching out nine. Chicago owns MLB’s worst record (18-37) and ranks 29th in OPS vs righties. Sam Burke’s 11% walk rate puts extra runners on for Baltimore’s league-leading stolen-base attack.

LM Tipster took Gunnar Henderson over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs. Henderson boasts a .400 OBP over the last two weeks and faces Sam Burke’s 91-mph fastball he crushes at a .600 xwOBA. With Henderson entrenched in the leadoff spot and the Orioles projected for 5.2 runs, LM forecasts multiple opportunities to clear the combo line.

Kingpin Sports took the Orioles moneyline, pointing to Tomoyuki Sugano’s sharp 3.07 ERA and the Cardinals’ ongoing inconsistency with Andre Pallante (4-3, 4.18). They expect Baltimore’s bats to capitalize on Pallante’s middling command while Sugano keeps damage contained.

Lonte Smith advised laying the short price with Baltimore (-115) and pairing it with the game over 9. He argued Tomoyuki Sugano is underrated—two or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts while inducing grounders—and regularly works deep, giving the bullpen a breather. The Orioles’ bats have woken up, plating 5+ runs in five of their last six. St. Louis is far stronger at Busch than on the highway, and Andre Pallante’s best work has come at home; most of his 2025 starts on the road have been mediocre. Lonte projects a 6-5 type of game, so he wants both Baltimore’s money-line edge and the over.

Scott Jenstad said Colton Cowser should be the bat fantasy managers stash this week. Cowser heads out on a rehab assignment in the coming days and is fresh off a 2023 campaign that featured 24 homers and a Double-plus walk rate in the upper minors. Unlike Parker Meadows, Cowser has already shown he can dominate advanced pitching, and Baltimore’s thin outfield depth means he could slide right back into a near-everyday role once activated. Jenstad is prioritizing Cowser in 15-teamers and even stashing him in some 12-team formats where bench space allows.