Kingpin Sports took the Orioles moneyline, pointing to Tomoyuki Sugano’s sharp 3.07 ERA and the Cardinals’ ongoing inconsistency with Andre Pallante (4-3, 4.18). They expect Baltimore’s bats to capitalize on Pallante’s middling command while Sugano keeps damage contained.

Lonte Smith advised laying the short price with Baltimore (-115) and pairing it with the game over 9. He argued Tomoyuki Sugano is underrated—two or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts while inducing grounders—and regularly works deep, giving the bullpen a breather. The Orioles’ bats have woken up, plating 5+ runs in five of their last six. St. Louis is far stronger at Busch than on the highway, and Andre Pallante’s best work has come at home; most of his 2025 starts on the road have been mediocre. Lonte projects a 6-5 type of game, so he wants both Baltimore’s money-line edge and the over.

Scott Jenstad said Colton Cowser should be the bat fantasy managers stash this week. Cowser heads out on a rehab assignment in the coming days and is fresh off a 2023 campaign that featured 24 homers and a Double-plus walk rate in the upper minors. Unlike Parker Meadows, Cowser has already shown he can dominate advanced pitching, and Baltimore’s thin outfield depth means he could slide right back into a near-everyday role once activated. Jenstad is prioritizing Cowser in 15-teamers and even stashing him in some 12-team formats where bench space allows.

Just A Bet Outside recommended riding Ryan O'Hearn’s bat in hitter props or DFS stacks. O'Hearn owns the 3rd-best batting average in MLB over the past week (.462) and is slashing .354 in May with a .323 mark versus right-handed pitching. He’s logged 3-plus hits in three of his last five contests and posts a 37.4 % hard-hit rate off righties compared to 21.7 % vs lefties. Tonight he draws Eric Fetty, whose 4.92 xFIP against left-handed hitters and paltry 14.4 % K-rate suggest plenty of balls in play. The tout expects O'Hearn to stay hot and hinted at including him in a hitter parlay or single-game hit prop.

Despite Charlie Morton’s ugly 0-7 record and 7.68 ERA across 41 IP, Soni likes the over 3.5 strikeouts at -135. Morton still wields an 8.8 K/9 and has cleared this prop in two straight outings thanks to a curveball that continues to post strong whiff rates. Facing a Cardinals lineup that has struggled with breaking balls, Soni expects at least four punch-outs even if Morton’s run prevention woes continue.

Shubham Soni backed Jackson Holliday to leave the yard at +600 in Milwaukee. He cited the rookie’s Statcast resume—91.1 mph average exit velocity and a 47.7% hard-hit rate—on top of a .272 average with six homers and 18 RBI. Soni argued those underlying numbers show Holliday consistently barrels baseballs even if the box-score power has been modest. Facing a Brewers staff that has surrendered above-league-average fly-ball contact, Soni believes one well-struck swing can cash the long odds.

Sean Zerillo advised abandoning any remaining Orioles futures, calling their 15-31 start “virtually no path back.” Baltimore is already 14 games under .500 and sits in a division where only the Yankees are above break-even, yet four AL Central clubs are over .500. Zerillo pointed to the Orioles’ paper-thin rotation, refusal to invest in multi-year pitching, and an offense that ranks near the bottom of every major category. With Brandon Hyde out and structural roster issues persisting, Zerillo believes any playoff or win-total tickets should be treated as dead money and sees value only in looking toward 2026 markets.

Kenny G advised laying the wood with Baltimore at –175, arguing this is the get-right spot the Orioles desperately need after five straight losses. He is fading Michael Soroka, whose 6.43 ERA and 1.62 WHIP through three starts offer little hope; Soroka just managed four innings versus Atlanta and has yet to complete five frames. That means a heavy dose of the Nationals’ 6.64 bullpen ERA— worst in baseball— against an Orioles lineup Kenny expects to rebound despite ranking 25th in runs. Baltimore counters with Zach Eflin (3–1, 3.13 ERA) who has allowed two earned runs or fewer in three of four outings, including a five-inning, two-run win over the Angels last week. While the Oriole pen is far from elite (4.93 ERA), Kenny notes it is still a full run better than Washington’s and should hold a late lead if Eflin gets them to the sixth. The Nationals are 9-15 on the road and 15-8-1 to the under away— a profile Kenny reads as low offensive ceiling— so he is comfortable swallowing the juice on Baltimore to avoid a sweep.

B Wade advised betting Zach Eflin under 1.5 walks allowed against Washington. Eflin has topped this number only three times in his last 20 starts and has never done it in consecutive outings. He walked two Angels his last time out, but Wade expects an immediate snap-back because the Nationals rank near the bottom in both walk rate and overall offensive pressure. Priced at –195, Wade believes fair odds are closer to –350/–400 given Eflin’s elite strike-throw profile, calling it a rare spot where heavy juice still holds value.

Morgan pegged Gunnar Henderson ($3.2k) as a bargain bat, citing six homers, two triples and three steals despite Baltimore’s struggles. Henderson carries an OPS north of .900 both at home and versus right-handers, while Michael Soroka brings a 6.43 ERA this year and a 5.36 mark across the last three seasons.

At just $3,200, Gunnar Henderson makes Morgan’s bargain list thanks to a .900+ OPS against right-handers and at Camden Yards. The Orioles shortstop faces Michael Soroka, who sports a 6.43 ERA this year and a 5.36 mark over the past three seasons. Henderson’s blend of six homers, two triples, and three steals has Morgan projecting a points-per-dollar smash spot.

At just $3,200, Gunnar Henderson makes Morgan’s bargain list thanks to a .900+ OPS against right-handers and at Camden Yards. The Orioles shortstop faces Michael Soroka, who sports a 6.43 ERA this year and a 5.36 mark over the past three seasons. Henderson’s blend of six homers, two triples, and three steals has Morgan projecting a points-per-dollar smash spot.

Peterson recommended Orioles ‑1.5 at +120 because the starting-pitching gap is massive. Mike Soroka owns a 6.43 ERA through two 2025 starts and, dating to 2024, is 0-12 with a 5.00 ERA, 1.4 HR/9 and 4.6 BB/9 across 28 outings. Zach Eflin has quietly stabilized Baltimore’s rotation, going 3-1 with a 3.13 ERA, only 0.8 HR/9 and 1.2 BB/9. Peterson’s own line made the Orioles ‑1.5 ‑107, so he sees a 27-cent edge on the run line thanks to Soroka’s continued struggles and Baltimore’s superior bullpen.

Mike Maher pushed back on the earlier optimism around Tomoyuki Sugano, stressing that his recent strikeout bump is at odds with a career-long pitch-to-contact profile. Sugano logged just 111 K over 156 NPP innings in 2024 and even during his 2020 peak never reached a true K-per-inning clip. Maher pointed to a 2.72 ERA that looks great in the box score but is propped up by shaky estimators—his FIP, xFIP, SIERA and xERA all sit north of 4.0 because strikeouts are heavily weighted in those models. The fewer bats he misses, the more ball-in-play variance can burn him. Maher’s plan is to roster Sugano strictly as a streaming piece: start him against soft offenses like the Royals, Marlins or White Sox, and plant him on the bench versus the Dodgers or any top-10 lineup. Until the whiff gains become sustainable, Maher views Sugano as a volatile SP4/5 best used in selective matchups rather than an every-week set-and-forget arm.

Ryan Wormeli spotlighted Tomoyuki Sugano as a sneaky waiver add (38 % Yahoo, 24 % ESPN) now that the veteran import’s strikeout punch is catching up to his sparkling ERA. After recording just 9 strikeouts in his first five MLB outings, Sugano has fanned 17 batters over his last 19⅓ innings, including an eight-K gem versus the Yankees. His walk rate sits in the 92nd percentile at 4.4 %, keeping WHIP in check, and his ERA was sub-3.00 entering Thursday’s start. Wormeli concedes the 3.77 xERA and modest whiff arsenal signal some ERA regression, but believes near-elite control plus league-average K’s turn him into a perfectly serviceable SP4/streamer. He suggested adding Sugano wherever managers need innings, especially in quality-start leagues where his efficiency gives a higher floor.

Zinno told listeners to keep pounding the under on Baltimore’s updated win total, calling the 2024 Orioles "a bad baseball team" that might not reach 70 victories. He pointed out that FanDuel has already slashed their number from a preseason 89.5 to 74.5 — the most dramatic in-season downgrade on the board, even larger than the Rockies’ adjustment. Zinno thinks the market still has not moved far enough given how quickly Baltimore’s play has cratered and expects them to finish last in the AL East.

Rob Donaldson played Ryan Mountcastle over 1.5 total bases (2.5u) and a homer at +700 (1.5u). He cited MacKenzie Gore’s 44% hard-hit rate and 1.41 HR/9 to righties. Mountcastle carries a .298 ISO and .940 OPS versus left-handers since 2022 and is averaging 96 mph EV over the last week. Rob called +700 ‘criminal’ given Gore’s tendency to miss over the heart of the plate and the warm 78-degree forecast at Camden Yards. He expects at least one 104-mph batted ball from Mountcastle Friday night.

Welsh told listeners he would roster Kyle Stowers over Jasson Dominguez the rest of the way. Stowers has seized a top-of-the-order role and is slashing .296/.356/.565 with four homers in just 53 plate appearances, giving him a 164 wRC+. Dominguez owns a respectable 116 wRC+ with five homers and three steals, but Welsh emphasized that three of those bombs came in one game and that Yankee Stadium’s dimensions can mask inconsistencies. He trusts the Orioles to keep Stowers in a prime run-production spot, whereas Dominguez could still ride the shuttle if the Yankees’ veteran outfield gets healthy. In 12-team redraft Welsh is adding Stowers wherever possible and treating Dominguez as a luxury stash, not a must-hold.

Boston prefers the Orioles’ team-total over rather than the full-game total. Paddack’s 46 % fly-ball rate and difficulty keeping the ball on the ground collide with a hot, humid Camden Yards and a five-mph breeze to left. Baltimore already ranks near the top of MLB in barrel rate against right-handers, giving them multiple paths to crooked numbers. He avoided the full-game over because Sagano induces grounders and Minnesota profiles as a ground-ball offense, but sees a clear edge in backing Baltimore’s bats to clear their individual number.

Guy Boston backed Baltimore to avoid a three-game sweep against Minnesota. He cited the "no-sweep" angle, Baltimore’s superior numbers versus right-handed pitching, and Chris Paddack’s road inconsistency. Sagano has posted three straight quality outings (5 scoreless vs NYY, 6 strong vs KC, 7.2 IP/1 ER vs LAA) while the hot, humid conditions and modest wind blowing out favor Baltimore’s fly-ball heavy lineup. With the Twins only two games over .500, Boston expects the Orioles to seize a mid-game lead and protect it late.

Just A Bet Outside spotlighted Gunnar Henderson as another hitter to target for a 1+ hit prop or DFS usage. Henderson is 3-for-4 off Chris Paddack in his brief career and enters play hitting .370 over the past seven days. The left-swinging shortstop owns dramatic home/road and platoon splits—slashing .333 at Camden Yards and .321 versus right-handed pitching compared to .213 and .167 respectively in the opposite situations this season. Paddack’s 1.7 HR/9 and 43% hard-hit rate to lefties further strengthen the matchup. Given the hot bat, friendly park, and ideal handedness edge, the tout expects Henderson to stay locked-in and recommends betting the over on his total bases or simple single hit markets.

Eric Pathi advised laying ‑135 with the Baltimore Orioles on 5/15/25, calling it a "rare favorite" for him. He said the play fits his personal Rule-of-10 system—this will be Baltimore’s 11th straight game meeting that rule—making it one of the few spots where he is willing to swallow juice. Pathi stressed that he almost never recommends favorites but views this price as justified given the current form of the Orioles and the situational angle created by his Rule-of-10 filter. He encouraged bettors who "can’t afford to pay me" to simply lay the 30–35 cents and move on, emphasizing that the free pick always arrives within the first minute of his videos.

Donaldson sprinkled one unit on Ryan O'Hearn to homer at +650. He notes O’Hearn is "swinging a hot bat" with a 53% hard-hit rate over the last two weeks and mashes belt-high heaters—exactly what Paddack likes to challenge hitters with. In a night expected to carry well to right field, Donaldson views O’Hearn as the sneaky power piece with the best odds among Orioles’ left-handed bats.

Donaldson jammed two props on Adley Rutschman: over 1.5 total bases for three units and a one-unit homer ticket at +600. Rutschman owns a .380 wOBA versus right-handed fastballs this year and has been scorching with seven hits in his last three games. Chris Paddack’s below-average changeup gives Rutschman platoon advantage from the left side and Donaldson believes the humid Baltimore forecast will reward Adley’s towering fly-ball profile.

Donaldson bet Jackson Holliday over 1.5 total bases at plus money (three units). He expects Camden’s hitter-friendly conditions and Chris Paddack’s straight four-seamer to play into Holliday’s gap-to-gap approach. The rookie left-hander owns a 44% hard-hit rate against right-handers and has already stacked nine extra-base hits in his first 60 MLB plate appearances. Donaldson sees multiple avenues—double in the alley, single and a steal, or a pull-side homer—for Holliday to cash this ladder play.

Donaldson laid four units on the Orioles full-game money line. His case: Baltimore still crushes right-handed pitching despite an otherwise disappointing season, and Chris Paddack is the exact profile he wants to attack—46% fastball usage with mediocre ride and an 11% barrel rate allowed. Weather at Camden Yards is projected to be hitter-friendly with mid-70s temps and a slight breeze to left. Donaldson also trusts starter Sugano (the lone consistent arm in the O’s rotation, per his words) to keep the game close through six before a superior Baltimore bullpen takes over.

Soni targeted Henderson’s +360 home-run prop, pointing to the infielder’s torrid five-game tear (.409/.458/.955, three HR, 1.413 OPS). With Minnesota’s Chris Paddack on the hill, Soni believes the red-hot bat and attractive odds create a high-upside wager for bettors chasing power.

Guy Boston said he would lean to both the Orioles moneyline and the full-game over 9 runs in the opener of Wednesday’s double-header with Minnesota. He pointed to Baltimore’s pronounced platoon advantage— the O’s post a far better wRC+ versus right-handed pitching, whereas the Twins are noticeably weaker in that split. Dean Kremer has been "serviceable" at Camden Yards, giving Baltimore a steady arm, while the Orioles lineup gets to attack another right-hander in Bailey Ober. Weather looks hitter-friendly with temps near 70, a light breeze and only a 21 % rain chance. Boston projected something like a 5-4 final and acknowledged the volatility of double-headers, but still felt the offensive edge and mild conditions made Baltimore plus the over the side worth considering.

Lindquist targeted Anthony Santander’s home-run prop against Ryan Pepiot, arguing that Pepiot’s heavy four-seamer/changeup mix plays worse against left-side swings. Santander will bat from his stronger left side, and although his barrel rate has dipped to 4.6 % through only 108 batted balls, Lindquist expects that to normalize toward last year’s 11.7 % with more reps. Pepiot’s change has surrendered a .463 xSLG to lefties, and Tropicana Field’s controlled environment removes the weather variables that often cap power upside. With Santander likely hitting third and avoiding Rays platoon shenanigans, Lindquist prefers his HR market if books hang +475 or longer, viewing it as undervalued given the matchup and Santander’s historical power profile.

Eric Lindquist said Gunnar Henderson is worth a plus-money home-run sprinkle in Game 1 of Wednesday’s Twins-Orioles double-header. His reasoning: Bailey Ober carries just a 19.4 % K-rate, a 20.2° average launch angle allowed and a fly-ball profile that plays poorly in Camden Yards’ left-handed power alley. Henderson, who struggled in April, has heated up over the past two weeks and is finally elevating the baseball again. Lindquist stressed that the combination of a lefty slugger on the upswing, a park that boosts left-handed power and Ober’s mediocre bat-missing ability justifies attacking Henderson’s HR prop or at minimum his total-bases markets.

Johnny Venezia recommended streaming Dean Kremer for his upcoming start against Minnesota and possibly beyond. While Kremer’s season ERA sits at 5.24 with a 30:11 K:BB over 44.2 innings, Venezia noted the right-hander has found something lately—14 innings of two-run ball across his last two outings. Because Baltimore failed to add a true ace, Kremer has the opportunity to seize a larger role, and Venezia thinks fantasy managers can squeeze two to three quality starts out of him if the hot streak holds. Kremer is rostered in only 6 percent of leagues, making him a near-free option for managers needing an immediate boost, but Venezia cautioned this is a short-term play rather than a season-long investment.

Ryan Wooden pegged Ryan Mountcastle as a +460 HR prop on FanDuel, citing a textbook buy-low setup. Mountcastle owns a career-best 91.5 mph average exit velocity and 52.1% hard-hit rate despite a .581 OPS and only two homers so far. The righty masher carries an .821 career OPS and .488 SLG versus left-handed pitching and faces Angels southpaw Tyler Anderson, who sports a shiny 2.68 ERA but has already allowed seven homers in 40⅓ innings (1.6 HR/9). Wooden expects Mountcastle’s underlying power metrics to normalize against a pitcher he profiles well against, completing SportsLine’s three-leg Sunday long-ball card.

Bettor Mark advised betting OVER 9.5 in Orioles-Angels, calling the matchup a "hitter’s paradise." He highlighted Kyle Gibson’s "9,762 ERA" hyperbole to emphasize how hittable he believes the veteran right-hander has been, while Josh Canning (his pronunciation of Jose Suarez/Jake Canningawicks) gives him little confidence on the other side. Mark foresees "a lot of runs, a lot of hits, a lot of offensive production" and therefore is comfortable attacking the high total.

The tout hammered the OVER, citing atrocious relief units—Baltimore’s bullpen sits 28th with a 5.36 ERA, while the Angels are 29th. Los Angeles arms have given up 6.8 runs per game across their last 10, surrendering 30 runs in the last five at home. Gibson has been shaky, and Kokonowich was torched for five runs his previous outing. Trends align: the over has hit in eight of the Angels’ past 10. Cash Out Sports Picks expects early fireworks and bullpen meltdowns pushing this total beyond the number.

Cash Out Sports Picks played Baltimore on the moneyline. Jack Kokonowich sports a 5.81 ERA and has dropped his last five starts, while Baltimore owns a .758 OPS versus righties. The Orioles are 7-3 in the past 10 head-to-heads and 6-1 in their last seven at Angel Stadium. Although Kyle Gibson has only two starts, his veteran track record suggests a rebound. With both teams below .500, the tout believes Baltimore’s superior splits and recent dominance in Anaheim give them the edge to seize Game 2 and spark momentum.

Reichel could not fathom laying –150 with Baltimore and a 14.06-ERA Kyle Gibson, so he turned to the Over 9.5. Rookie Jack Kachanowicz owns a 5.79 mark of his own and an 11% walk rate. Gibson has already served up 11 homers in 26 innings, while the lone thing the Angels do well is hit the long ball (10th in HR/FB%). Anaheim’s ballpark is projecting 82-degree temps and a 10-mph out-to-left breeze, a +13% homer aid per BallParkPal. Both bullpens are bottom-five in ERA the past two weeks, and Reichel forecasted a “beer-league softball” score line closer to 12-13 runs.

Data Skrive projected a 6-5 final and advised playing the Over 9.5 runs. Their model leans on several red-flag pitching indicators: Baltimore owns the 28th-ranked staff ERA at 5.50 with a bottom-five 7.5 K/9, while Los Angeles sits 26th at 5.33 ERA and matches the same low strikeout rate. Both teams live and die by the long ball—Angels are fourth in MLB with 51 homers, Orioles 10th with 43—and each has already cashed overs in over 40% of their games (Angels 20-16 on totals, Orioles 16-20). Warm weather and neutral winds at Angel Stadium add to the run-scoring environment. With Kyle Hendricks bringing a 4.90 expected ERA and Tomoyuki Sugano striking out just 4.8 per nine over his last three starts, Data Skrive expects crooked numbers from the jump and recommends betting the Over.

Kenny G’s preferred angle in Orioles-Angels is the Under 9. Baltimore has scored just 2, 1 and 0 runs during a five-game skid and now ranks 23rd in runs and 27th in OBP. Their one bright spot, rookie starter Tumuuki Sugano (3.00 ERA), gets virtually no run support. Los Angeles’ lineup is hardly better—24th in runs, dead last in OBP—and even with a brutal 7.00 bullpen ERA the club struggles to plate runners. Kyle Hendricks looked healthy in his last outing (7.2 IP, 1 ER vs Detroit), giving Kenny additional confidence that both starters can work deep. Trendwise, Baltimore is 12-6-1 to the under on the road while Angel Stadium sits 8-6-1 to the over, suggesting books may still be shading totals up. Kenny sees the combination of ice-cold bats, two competent starters and a 9-run total as an opportunity to bet the under.

Lonte Smith attacked Over 9.5, explaining that both starters carry blow-up potential despite misleading ERAs. Kyle Hendricks has issued 12 walks in his last five outings and owns a sub-20% whiff rate, while Sagano’s only path to outs is strikeouts—problematic against an Angels squad that chases less than league average. Smith pointed out that Baltimore’s battered rotation has forced a fatigued bullpen to log 28 high-leverage innings in four games, increasing the odds of mid-game fireworks. Meanwhile Los Angeles’ pen is no sure thing either, having allowed runs in seven of its last ten appearances. He expects both teams to get to double-digit baserunners and sees 6-5 or 7-4 as realistic finals.

Donaldson risked four units on Baltimore’s first-five-innings run line, citing a massive pitching mismatch: Tsumano—currently the Orioles’ best starter—against Kyle Hendricks, part of an Angels staff and bullpen he called "an absolute disaster." The Halos are already without Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon, and their relief corps owns a bottom-five ERA. Donaldson noted that Baltimore mashes right-handed pitching and should strike quickly before the game even reaches the shaky Los Angeles bullpen. He wants exposure only to the first five, expecting the O’s to hold at least a two-run edge by that point.

Eric Lindquist said the simplest play on Friday’s card is Orioles money-line because the matchup tilts heavily toward Baltimore’s bats. He acknowledged 35-year-old rookie Tamayuki Sagano owns an ugly 13.3 % K-rate and .372 xwOBA but pointed out the veteran has begun surviving by pounding the bottom of the zone: 55 % ground-ball rate and four straight outings of 5–7 innings while allowing no more than five hits. That innings-eater profile lets Brandon Hyde keep his high-leverage relievers fresh. The key edge, though, is Baltimore’s lineup (117 wRC+ vs right-handed pitching) in a park that boosts left-handed power against Kyle Hendricks. Hendricks is running a career-worst 12.9 % strikeout rate and .353 xwOBA, giving up loud contact to lefties with virtually no swing-and-miss. Lindquist noted the Angels have “absolutely nothing” from the left side to punish Sagano, whereas Baltimore can roll out Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Cedric Mullins, and Colton Cowser from the left side. With that platoon imbalance and Baltimore’s superior bullpen depth, he graded O’s ML as “way too straightforward,” playable at anything up to –130.

Mike Maher cautioned managers not to overreact to Jackson Holliday’s recent hot streak, ranking him only around 21st among second basemen for the remainder of 2024 and preferring to use him as a middle-infield slot in standard leagues. Maher conceded the .387/.457/.581 run over 11 games is encouraging, but believes Holliday will be ‘a better major-league player than fantasy asset in the short term’. Key concerns: he still sits versus most left-handers (three of the last four lefty starters), has yet to attempt a steal despite 89th-percentile sprint speed, and his barrel plus hard-hit rates are down from 2023. Maher also noted the Orioles’ coaching staff appears hesitant to let their youngsters run or hit atop the order consistently. With expected batting average (xBA .262) merely league-average and limited category juice beyond runs, Maher advised holding Holliday as a depth piece, pointing out he originally had him outside the top-30 at the position and only nudged him into the low-20s after the recent surge. Long-term outlook remains bright, but Maher believes fantasy gamers are at least a year early on counting on premium production.

Ryan Wormeli said Jackson Holliday is finally making ‘the leap’ and belongs in the mid-teens among fantasy second basemen right now. Over his last 11 games before Thursday, Holliday slashed .387/.457/.581 (1.038 OPS) and was rewarded with a move to the No. 2 spot in the Orioles’ order. Wormeli highlighted several indicators of a real skills growth: the swinging-strike rate has cratered to 8.1% from 13% last year, overall K-rate is down nearly five points, and his expected batting average (.262) essentially matches the actual .263—signs the contact uptick is earned. Although his barrel and hard-hit rates are slightly lower than 2023, Wormeli credited a shorter swing and the removal of a leg kick— tweaks likely guided by father Matt Holliday— for all-fields line-drive contact. He also expects volume to hold because Holliday’s defense ‘looks night-and-day better,’ making benchings less likely once Brandon Hyde is forced to give him everyday reps. Wormeli admitted the lack of steals (89th-percentile sprint speed but no green light yet) caps immediate ceiling, yet he still projects Holliday for useful average, runs and double-digit homers the rest of 2024, urging managers in 12-team formats to start him confidently at 2B.

For totals players Kingpin leaned Under 8. Ryan has not surrendered more than one earned run in any road outing, and Baltimore averages just 3.3 runs away from Camden Yards. Dean Kremer is volatile but did post a quality start his last trip and faces a Minnesota lineup ranking 21st in wRC+. With a getaway-day lineup risk for both clubs, Kingpin expects a 4-2 or 5-2 type finish.

Bryan Zarpentine said Dean Kremer is a strong target for the Over 2.5 Earned Runs prop in Thursday’s matinee at Target Field. Kremer owns a 5.73 ERA overall and an ugly 9.19 ERA in three day starts. He has been shelled for at least five runs in four of six outings this season, with last week’s seven scoreless frames against Kansas City labeled an outlier. With Minnesota riding a four-game winning streak and swinging the bats well, Zarpentine expects the inconsistent right-hander to regress to his usual form and surrender at least three earned runs.

Eric Lindquist played the Orioles-Twins under 8.5 runs at –125, citing several converging factors. Joe Ryan’s 31.1% K-rate and elite four-seam/change combo should play up with 15-mph wind blowing straight in from center at Target Field, dampening Baltimore’s left-handed pop (Gunnar Henderson, Ryan O’Hearn, Jackson Holliday). On the other side, Dean Kremer is not flashy (18% K-rate, 5.21 xERA), but Lindquist saw encouraging pitch-mix tweaks in his seven-inning, two-run outing against Kansas City and expects the spacious outfield and same inbound wind to hide his fly-ball issues. He also rated both bullpens top-5 in his preseason model and projects continued improvement, giving him confidence the game stays at seven runs or fewer. He would still take under 8 at even money if 8.5 disappears.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended the full-game under, noting both clubs struggle to score (Minnesota 18th, Baltimore 23rd in runs). The under has cashed in 10 of the Orioles’ last 13 and seven of the Twins’ last 10. Joe Ryan’s 2.92 ERA/0.90 WHIP and 47-5 strikeout-to-walk profile make life difficult on Baltimore’s punch-less lineup, while Dean Kremer is capable of at least a league-average outing after blanking Kansas City for seven innings last time out. With both teams trending toward low totals against American League foes, he expects another quiet scoreboard.

Scott Reichel hammered Coby Mayo under 0.5 hits at –129, calling the rookie "really bad at baseball." Mayo has zero hits in nine plate appearances this season and went 0-for-3 with three strikeouts Tuesday versus Pablo Lopez. His career line is 4-for-55 ( .073 ) with a 56% strikeout rate, and on the road he’s 2-for-33. Reichel reminded listeners Mayo was promoted only because Jordan Westburg and Ramon Urias are injured, so Baltimore has no other true third baseman. Given the microscopic contact skills and the fact sportsbooks are still hanging a standard hit line, Reichel said he’d keep fading Mayo until adjustments are made, labeling it a straightforward plus-EV bet for Wednesday.

Boston suggested betting Heston Kjerstad UNDER 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs at –120 if the rookie cracks the lineup. Woods Richardson has limited left-handed bats to a .286 wOBA at home thanks to a 34% change-up usage that grades as Kjerstad’s worst-rated pitch type (-4 run value in a small sample). The prospect has started only two of Baltimore’s last five games and owns a sub-.300 OBP against righties, so Boston doubts he gets the four plate appearances normally needed to threaten the over. With Minnesota’s bullpen rested after Joe Ryan’s seven-inning effort Tuesday, Boston expects Kjerstad to see just one favorable matchup all night, making the under the sharper play.

Eric Lindquist circled Ryan O'Hearn’s home-run prop as a one-swing bet worth firing on Wednesday. Lindquist noted that Twins rookie Simeon Woods Richardson owns one of the highest fly-ball rates on the slate and is already giving up plenty of hard contact. Even though the Baltimore lineup has been quiet recently, Woods Richardson’s profile (above-average barrel rate, limited ground-ball ability) is exactly what wakes them up, and Camden Yards should play neutrally with no damaging wind. O’Hearn brings a 46% hard-hit rate and a top-25 average exit velocity against right-handers since last season, giving him multiple paths to leave the yard. Lindquist projected roughly a 22-23% HR probability—good value at any price longer than +425.

It's The Final Round pointed to Austin Hays as a value hitter against Miles Mikolas. Hays is 6-for-16 (.375) lifetime versus the veteran right-hander and has collected a hit in 13 of his last 14 games. The tout expects the combination of strong BvP numbers and current form to translate into another successful night for Hays, recommending over 0.5 hit or 1.5 total bases wagers.