Kenny G advised taking Boston at the current –110 pick’em price, arguing the market is giving "too much respect" to Paul Skeens. While acknowledging the rookie’s 2.07 ERA and seven scoreless against Colorado, Kenny pointed out the limitations: Pittsburgh’s bullpen has cratered down the stretch and the offense ranks dead last in slugging. Boston, meanwhile, owns a 41-25 home record, a top-10 bullpen, and sits fourth in MLB runs scored. After sweeping the Orioles, the Red Sox are just 3.5 games behind Toronto and "due for a breakout offensive performance" that could come against the Pirates’ relief corps even if Skeens is sharp early. Kenny summed it up: “You could maybe take Pirates first five, but full-game Boston is the better play because that bullpen edge is massive.”

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Red Sox on the full-game moneyline. He noted Boston’s post-All-Star surge, crediting an energized top-of-the-order led by prospect Anthony and Alex Cora’s knack for bullpen match-ups. Debuting 6-foot-6 lefty Tolle adds deception against a Pirates lineup that owns seven sub-three-run nights in its last 13. While Paul Skeens is intimidating, Boston’s plan to mix arm angles and disrupt timing plus a 6-4 head-to-head edge convinced the tout that Fenway’s hosts carry the larger margin for error.

Kenny G said to bet the Boston Red Sox moneyline at -170 and even consider the -1.5 run line, calling it a potential "lock of the day." He pointed to Garrett Crochet's 14-5 record and 2.38 ERA, noting the left-hander has allowed just one earned run over his last 14 innings and punched out 11 Yankees in his previous start. Baltimore counters with Cade Povich (2-7, 5.13 ERA), who has been shelled in back-to-back outings and is backed by a bullpen Kenny labeled "sixth-worst" with a 4.66 ERA. The Orioles have lost six of their last seven and sit 13 games under .500; their offense ranks just 18th in runs and 22nd in average. Meanwhile, Boston’s pen remains "elite," and its lineup is still fourth in runs scored on the season despite a lukewarm three-game stretch. Books opened Red Sox -170 with a total of 8, and Kenny expects most of those runs to come from Boston, saying he’d be "floored" if they don’t win.

Eric Lindquist said Roman Anthony’s walk prop is worth attacking on Thursday in Baltimore. His case: (1) Orioles left-hander Kade Povich owns an 8.6% walk rate and struggles to finish hitters when he falls behind; (2) Anthony is an on-base machine with a 13.9% walk rate and a .383 xwOBA, tops on Boston by 23 points; (3) Anthony’s 59.2% hard-hit rate forces pitchers to nibble, further inflating free passes; and (4) low baselines at most books make the pricing exploitable in a market Lindquist has been beating for the past six weeks. He plans to monitor openers and pounce if the number is plus money or -110 or better, noting DraftKings and Cliffs as likely shops.

Kenny G said the Red Sox moneyline at –130 is mis-priced because Baltimore is going bullpen-game with a unit that owns a 4.69 ERA, ranking bottom-six in MLB. He reminded listeners that the opener who last faced Boston lasted one inning and surrendered a run, underscoring the lack of reliable length. Boston’s own starter Brayan Bello may not have to be perfect because Baltimore’s pen is likely to leak runs. Kenny noted Boston’s 31-35 road record is passable compared with the Orioles’ 31-34 mark at Camden Yards, and Boston has cashed overs 37-28-1 away, suggesting their lineup travels. He calls the Sox a potential “lock of the day,” preferring the side to the 9-run total and fading a tired, ineffective Orioles relief corps.

Kenny G said he is taking the Red Sox at roughly -115 in Baltimore. His confidence comes from Lucas Giolito’s steady 8-2 record and 3.72 ERA plus the fact Giolito already blanked the O’s for 7 shut-out frames back in May. Kenny highlighted Boston’s 3.41 bullpen ERA as a clear edge over an Orioles relief corps he labeled "not very good." Offensively, Boston still ranks 4th in runs and 5th in batting average, whereas Baltimore sits 21st and 24th in those same categories. The Orioles will rely on Kyle Bradish in his first appearance after a 14-month IL stint, and Kenny doubts the veteran will work deep, forcing the shaky pen to cover innings. Given the matchup of a fully stretched-out Giolito against a rehab-fresh Bradish and the Red Sox’s superior lineup, Kenny tagged Boston moneyline as “pin comment worthy.”

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Boston Red Sox on the moneyline, stressing the gap on the mound. Lucas Giolito has been steady all season while Kyle Bradish is making his first major-league start in more than a year, a spot the tout labeled "rust central." Boston owns the fourth-best scoring rate in baseball at 4.98 runs per game and just took three of four from New York, so the lineup support is expected to be there. Baltimore, meanwhile, has slipped into spoiler mode and ranks only 17th in scoring. With Giolito in form and a potent offense behind him, the tout sees Boston consolidating its postseason push with a road win.

Kenny G backed the Red Sox at +140 against the Yankees. He noted Boston has been profitable for him lately and pointed out that New York starter "Redondo" has struggled versus the Sox this season. Kenny dismissed the typical 'avoid the Sunday sweep' narrative for the Yankees and said the plus-money line on Boston is attractive enough to merit possible pin-comment status.

Kenny G is riding Boston at +140 to cap a four-game sweep in the Bronx. Dustin May has delivered two quality starts in three since the trade and is backed by a bullpen sporting a 3.40 ERA and an offense ranked fourth in MLB runs after dropping 12 on Saturday. He’s "definitely worried" about Carlos Rodon, who allowed nine earned over 10 innings in back-to-back June losses to Boston, and the Yankee relief corps "has been terrible." New York’s lineup has scored just 1-0-3 in the series. Kenny thinks the combination of pitching edge, bullpen advantage, and hotter bats makes Boston the clear value.

Drew Martin said to lay the –130 with Boston because every edge points their direction. He highlighted Garrett Crochet’s 13-5 record, sub-2.50 ERA and nearly 200 strikeouts, projecting the big left-hander to eclipse 200 K’s in this start. Martin’s bullpen ratings have Boston eighth-best in MLB while New York flirts with bottom-10, and he reminded listeners that Will Warren carries a 4.25 ERA, rarely works past five innings, and was tagged for four walks and four earned by these same Sox in their last meeting. With the standings tight and the pitching plus bullpen gap this wide, Martin labeled Boston his best bet of the slate.

Kenny G said the best way to attack Saturday’s slate is to lay the short –135 money-line with Boston. His conviction centers on ace Garrett Crochet, who sits at 13-5 with a 2.43 ERA and just held Miami to one run over seven innings. Crochet already logged an 8-plus-inning, 1-run gem against New York on August 13 after a serviceable outing on August 7, so Kenny believes the left-hander ‘has the Yankees figured out.’ Boston’s bullpen (3.42 ERA, 3rd in MLB) has backed him all season, whereas New York counters with Will Warren (4.25 ERA) whose lone 2025 start against Boston lasted only 5.1 innings with four earned, four walks and a homer. The Yankees’ bats have cratered—0 and 3 runs in the first two games of this series after previously ranking second in runs—while the Red Sox still profile as a top-five offense despite a quiet Friday. Add in New York’s shaky bullpen trend and Kenny calls Boston ‘a very reasonable price’ and his first bet on the card.

Kenny G said the Red Sox money-line at +143 is his favorite dog on Friday because Brayan Bello has dominated New York once already this season (7 IP, 0 ER, 8 K on 6/15) and has delivered quality starts in four of his last five outings. He contrasted that with Max Fried’s current slide – seven straight shaky appearances including five innings, seven earned against St. Louis last time out – and suggested Fried could be pitching hurt. Kenny trusts Boston’s top-10 bullpen while calling the Yankees’ relief corps a playoff-level question mark. New York’s offense ranks second in runs but shows boom-bust peaks, and they are about to face a pitcher they “have struggled against.” Historical totals trends (Boston an MLB-best 34-26-1 to the over on the road; Yankees 34-26-2 to the under at home) reinforce that Boston games away from Fenway play higher scoring, but Kenny’s actionable angle is the plus-money side, projecting Boston to out-hit and out-bullpen New York on Friday night.

Eric Lindquist circled Roman Anthony’s home-run prop as a Friday dart. Max Fried owns a 200-plus expected ISO allowed to left-handed bats this year, and Lindquist noted the Boston prospect’s patience has kept him atop the order, guaranteeing plate appearances. Early Windfinder readings show the breeze shifting out of right, and Lindquist thinks books may hang a friendlier number because the matchup is left-on-left. He plans to check weather confirmation in the morning but expects Anthony’s odds to hold long enough to fire.

Matt Perrault pegged Lucas Giolito’s road dominance and Boston’s slumping bats as the linchpins for an Under 8.5 wager in Red Sox-Yankees. Giolito sports a 3.47 ERA, 4-1 record and .211 opponents’ average across 57 road innings, with the club winning four of his last five starts. Rookie Luis Gil has allowed just three earned over his last 10 2⁄3 frames for New York. Meanwhile the Red Sox have scored three or fewer runs in five of their last six games, and Perrault doubts the Yankees’ 14-homer binge in humid Tampa will translate to the Bronx against Giolito’s heavy fastball. He played the under at ‑110 for 1.1 units.

Kenny G told listeners to grab the Boston Red Sox at plus-money against the Yankees. He trusts Lucas Giolito far more than New York starter Luis Gil— calling Gil "untrustworthy"— and likes that Boston is desperate for wins during the stretch run. The park has produced a 34-26-2 record to the under and the total opened 8.5, but Kenny is passing on the total and focusing on the side. With Giolito providing the pitching edge and Boston’s lineup capable of punishing Gil’s command lapses, Kenny believes the Red Sox are the value side on Thursday night.

Kenny G sided with the Red Sox at +115 in the rivalry opener. Lucas Giolito brings an 8-2 record and 3.63 ERA, and Boston has gone 4-1 in his last five outings. A top-3 bullpen waits behind him. The Yankees counter with Luis Gil (5.14 ERA). Although Gil looked better versus St. Louis, Kenny doubts he can repeat that versus Boston’s top-10 offense, and New York’s own bullpen sports a 4.23 ERA. The Yankees bats are hot, but Kenny trusts Giolito and Boston’s superior relief corps more and notes the Sox’s urgency as they chase the division. He passed on the 8.5 total and grabbed Boston on the moneyline.

Kenny G leaned toward the Red Sox because the Yankees’ starter Luis Gil (he pronounced it "Gild") is still an arm he refuses to trust and Boston is being offered at plus money. Boston is in must-win mode down the stretch, so Kenny likes grabbing the superior motivation and the dog price in the matchup.

Kenny G is backing the Red Sox at +115, citing a clear edge on the mound and in the bullpen. Lucas Giolito owns an 8-2 record with a 3.63 ERA, and Boston has gone 4-1 in his last five starts. Behind him is a top-four bullpen by ERA. Luis Gil carries a 5.14 mark and, despite a decent five-inning outing versus St. Louis, remains unproven; the Yankees’ pen has cratered to 4.23. Boston’s offense ranks fourth in runs and seventh in batting average on the season even while stuck on three runs in each of its last three contests. New York’s bats are hot (six or more in five of the last six) but Kenny trusts Giolito and the Sox relief group to hold the line, making Boston plus money the side in a game they "desperately need to win" to stay in the AL East race.

Among the six plays on his card, Lindquist said his favorite was Roman Anthony to record a walk (or over 0.5 walks). The matchup is against Luis Gil, whose 13.1% walk rate this year mirrors last season’s 12.1%, proving the wildness isn’t going away. Anthony already owns a walk rate near 14% in limited MLB time, and Lindquist noted Gil “walks everybody – he walks his dog because he’s a respectful human being, and then he walks every hitter imaginable.” With Gil leaning on a fastball that can miss up, Lindquist expects Anthony’s patient approach at the top of Boston’s order to cash the free-pass prop.

Lindquist flagged a Jarren Duran home-run prop as a value play, calling opposing starter "Sagano" "absolutely horrendous against lefties." He wants to confirm lineup spot—especially with Wilyer Abreu dinged up—but if Duran grabs a premium slot, Lindquist thinks the southpaw’s ugly platoon splits and Fenway’s right-field dimensions outweigh the cooler Boston weather and create plus-odds upside.

B Wade said the safest way to attack Tuesday’s slate is to fade Walker Buehler by taking over 2.5 earned runs. Buehler owns a 5.40 ERA and 1.50 WHIP and has allowed at least three earned in 62 percent of his 2025 starts. The trend is even worse at Fenway where he has failed to stay under this line in five straight outings. Wade noted Baltimore’s offense has come alive, plating 22 runs in its last three games, and their core bats—Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holiday, Ryan Mountcastle, Colton Cowser—all grade out noticeably better versus right-handed pitching. With every recent split pointing south and an Orioles lineup that prefers righties, Wade is betting Buehler coughs up three or more again.

Kenny G sided with Boston at –178, though he labeled it a lighter conviction play. He refuses to trust Cal Quantrill (4-9, 5.09 ERA) on the road against a Fenway lineup that still ranks third in MLB in runs despite a brief cold spell. Boston counters with Brayan Bello (8-6, 3.25 ERA) and one of baseball’s elite bullpens, a unit Kenny rates top-three by ERA and leverage efficiency. Miami has dropped six of seven and its bullpen ERA has ballooned in August, while its offense—ninth in average but only 17th in runs—has produced just 10 runs across the last five games. Kenny considered the under 9.5 but ultimately prefers Boston’s money-line as the safer path, noting the club’s 39-22 home record and overall edge on the mound and in the pen. He cautioned, however, that the number is getting expensive and does not carry yesterday’s level of confidence.

Bill Harrelson said Trevor Story’s 0.5-run line is still too low while the shortstop is on a heater. Story has crossed the plate in 8 of his last 10 and 12 of his last 14 outings, averaging 1.1 runs with 4.4–4.6 plate appearances per game. Career numbers versus Sandy Alcantara jump off the page: .375 average, .444 OBP, .625 SLG. Alcantara is surrendering a .298 average to right-handed hitters, roughly 10 % worse than his overall .272 mark. With Story scorching and the pitcher struggling versus righties, Harrelson expects at least one trip home plate and took the higher than 0.5 runs on PrizePicks.

B Wade recommended Roman Anthony over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs. Anthony has been a consistent box-score stuffer since mid-July, clearing this line in the vast majority of his last 15 games and immediately bouncing back every time he has fallen short. He just slugged two homers and piled up six combined H/R/RBI in two games against Houston. Wade expects another spike night because Anthony draws a favorable matchup against Sandy Alcantara, whom Wade already projects to give up at least four runs. The combination of Anthony’s current form, lineup spot, and a hittable pitcher makes the over attractive.

B Wade advised betting Lucas Giolito under 2.5 earned runs. Giolito has stayed below this mark in 61 % of his starts overall, but Wade focused on the dominant home split: only one earned run allowed across his last four starts at Fenway and no home outing with more than one earned run since early June. Miami is swinging it, yet Wade noted the Marlins average nearly one full run less per game on the road (just under four) than at home (just under five). With the park, recent form, and opponent split all lining up, Wade expects Giolito to keep Miami to two or fewer.

Kenny G is laying the –165 with Boston. Sandy Alcantara enters with a 6.55 ERA after back-to-back drubbings by Houston and Atlanta, while Lucas Giolito sits at 8-2 with a 3.77 ERA and recently spun eight shutout frames versus Houston. Boston owns one of MLB’s best bullpens and still ranks 3rd in runs and 5th in batting average. Fenway has been kind (39-22), whereas Miami is 30-32 away and six games out of the race. Kenny will keep it simple with the moneyline but noted the –1.5 run line is in play if you want more payout.

Jordan closed with Roman Anthony as a plus-money dart versus Sandy Alcantara. The Marlins ace is nursing poor recent form—.320 opponent average over his last two starts—and actually fares worse against right-handed hitters but is still allowing a .243 clip to lefties. Anthony, the Sox’s highly-touted call-up, is hitting .304 this week, and Outlier posts a 70 % probability for the 2+ hits/runs/RBI prop. The host likes Anthony in deep-field DFS contests and for speculative total-bases parlays while the market adjusts.

Lindquist plans to stack Houston right-handed bats and shop HR props against Walker Buehler, citing the veteran’s .220 expected ISO allowed to righties and a season-long trend of getting “bludgeoned” by same-handed hitters. With the Crawford Boxes inviting pull-side power and Houston’s lineup pricing expected to be palatable, Lindquist believes the Astros could be a slate-breaking DFS stack and a profitable one-off HR spot once numbers are posted. He mentioned waiting for the lineup to confirm, expecting Carlos Correa—or whichever righty lands in the two-hole—to sit in a premium run-production spot.

Kenny G said the 8.5 total in Boston-Houston is too low and leaned to the over. His case starts with both starters coming in on wobbly footing: Dustin May lasted only 3.2 innings and surrendered six hits and three earned runs in his first appearance since the trade, while 25-year-old Spencer Arrighetti owns a 7.43 ERA after getting torched by Miami in his first start off the IL. Despite the two bullpens ranking top-5 in ERA (Boston 3.37, Houston even better), Kenny expects early damage to pile up. He noted Boston is 32-25-1 to the over on the road and reminded listeners that the Red Sox still sit 4th in runs scored and Houston 2nd in batting average. With both lineups capable and neither hurler stretched out, he believes runs show up early enough to push this game past 8.5.

Although Houston owns strong numbers against southpaws, Mills Young leaned over on Garrett Crochet’s 7.0-strikeout prop after noting the left-hander has hit that mark in three of five (60 %). Crochet’s fastball sits 98 mph with a 17 % swinging-strike rate, and his new sweeper has fueled a 33 % K rate since July 1. Young conceded the matchup is risky but believes Crochet’s pitch efficiency — 15.8 pitches per inning over the last month — keeps an eight-K ceiling firmly in play.

Drew Martin wants Boston at Petco because Brayan Bello is riding back-to-back gems (one earned run over 13 innings) while Dylan Cease is 4-10 and has surrendered five or more earned in two of his last three home outings. The Padres bullpen is stout, but Martin points out the Red Sox ‘pen has been just as good, so the decisive advantage sits with Boston’s starter. That pitching edge plus a solid Sox lineup has him listing Bello and backing the visitors.

Kenny G advised running it back on Boston at +118 in San Diego. His case: Brayan Bello (8-5, 3.03 ERA) has stacked two straight quality outings, most recently six innings of one unearned run versus Kansas City, while the Red Sox bullpen carries a 3.39 ERA (5th-best). Offensively Boston ranks 4th in runs, 6th in average and owns a .431 slug, scoring 4-10-3-6-8-6-7-2 runs the last eight contests. On the other side Dylan Cease is 4-10 with a 4.60 ERA and, despite a nine-strikeout gem vs St. Louis, has been volatile after getting shelled by the Mets. San Diego’s pen is elite (3.07 ERA) yet the lineup remains mediocre, 23rd in runs and 25th in slugging, even after a five-run show Saturday. With Bello trending up, Cease’s inconsistency, and Boston’s dangerous bats, Kenny likes the Sox to bounce back and tag Cease for the mild upset.

Guy Boston Sports likes Boston even with Michael King returning for San Diego. He trusts Lucas Giolito’s 196 batting average allowed in 110 prior Red Sox plate appearances, and emphasized Boston’s current top-five bullpen by ERA. King may only work three to four innings coming off nerve surgery, forcing the Padres to match Boston’s rested relief corps for six frames. He projects a 4-3 type victory for Boston.

Kenny G said backing the Boston Red Sox at +130 is the best way to attack this matchup. He trusts Lucas Giolito, who owns an 8-2 record and 3.57 ERA and is fresh off eight innings of one-run ball against Houston. Kenny emphasized that Giolito has already handled 7+ inning workloads without a drop-off in his following start and will hand the game to a Boston bullpen that sits top-5 in MLB. The Red Sox offense is humming as well—seventh in batting average, fourth in runs, and coming off an eight-run opener. On the other side Michael King is just two starts removed from a shoulder IL stint and surrendered four runs (three earned) in 5⅓ innings in his return. Although San Diego’s bullpen sports a stellar 2.99 ERA, Kenny pointed out the lineup ranks 24th in runs and 25th in slugging, making it hard to justify the Padres laying −155. With Petco Park’s home dominance (36-19) already baked into the line, Kenny sees clear value grabbing Boston at plus money.

Cash Out Sports Picks rode with the Boston Red Sox money line. Boston plated at least six runs in five of its previous six games, including an eight-run outburst Monday, and ranks fifth in MLB at 4.98 runs per game (5.29 at Fenway). Kansas City’s offense is 29th at 3.68 runs per game and the club largely stood pat at the deadline, leaving Seth Lugo without much support. With Boston’s lineup surging and Fenway’s hitter-friendly environment, the tout expects the Red Sox to close the series strong.

Eric Lindquist flagged Dustin May’s strikeout prop as an early Wednesday target. May’s Stuff+ grades remain elite and Lindquist thinks a change of scenery has smoothed out mechanical issues the Dodgers never solved. Books usually shade a pitcher’s first start with a new club, so Lindquist is hoping to see 4.5 Ks at plus money and will immediately ladder the over to 6+ and 7+ strikeouts. Boston’s projected lineup still owns a 24% strike-out rate against power sinkers, and Lindquist expects an 85–90 pitch workload that should translate to 6–7 punch-outs if May’s velo holds at the 97 mph he showed in his rehab tune-up.

Kenny G said to lay the juice with Boston at –235 because Garrett Crochet continues to pitch like a true staff ace. Crochet owns a 12-4 record and 2.23 ERA, and the Red Sox have won each of his last five outings. When he faced Kansas City in early May he spun seven innings of one-run ball with nine strikeouts in an eventual 10-1 win, so the matchup history is excellent. Boston backs him with the No. 2 bullpen ERA in MLB and an offense producing 8-6-7-2-13-8 runs its last six games while ranking fourth in runs and eighth in OBP. On the other side Kansas City counters with Ryan Bergert/Burr, a converted Pirate with only short outings and very little swing-and-miss stuff, plus an offense that still sits 29th in runs scored despite deadline additions. The Royals are a .500 road team, whereas Boston is 37-21 at Fenway. All of those edges led Kenny to label the Red Sox his potential “lock of the day.”

Just A Bet Outside said Boston’s alternate team total of 2.5 runs is simply too low. He pointed to the favorable run-scoring environment that recently produced rough lines for arms as good as Clayton Kershaw (4 ER) and Jesus Luzardo (6 ER on only 2 hits thanks to 5 walks). Boston’s patient lineup profiles the same way: near-elite walk rate, plenty of contact, and "swinging it well right now." With warm summer weather and erratic left-hander Bailey Falter on the mound, the tout expects the Red Sox to crack three runs “pretty easily.”

Just A Bet Outside played Boston’s team total over 2.5 runs, needing only three scores in 85-degree weather with a light breeze blowing out at Fenway. The angle is simple: Bailey Falter, making his first start for Kansas City, owns poor underlying skills—few whiffs and shaky command after four walks last outing. Before a fortunate two-hit gem in spacious Oracle Park, Falter had coughed up three-plus earned in five of six starts. Boston has mauled southpaws all season: three-plus runs in eight of the last ten games against left-handed starters and 11 of 16 home dates versus LHP, averaging 6.2 runs in that split. Recent victims include Framber Valdez (5 ER), Colton Gordon (6 ER), Clayton Kershaw (4 ER) and Jesus Luzardo (6 ER on only two hits thanks to five walks). Given the Red Sox’ walk rate and pull power, the tout expects them to clear three runs quickly against a contact-heavy left-hander in hitter-friendly conditions.

For leg two, Guy Boston Sports advised laying the juice (-310 on DraftKings) for Alex Bregman to record at least one hit against Houston. The tout argued the line is warranted: Bregman owns a 90 % hit rate in his last 10 (1.3 per), 80 % in his last 20 (1.0), and 72 % on the season (1.15) despite missing time. He is a perfect 5-for-5 on hit props over the last five games (1.8 per) and tagged his former team for two knocks in Friday’s walk-off win, adding a revenge narrative boost. Splits amplify the edge—Bregman’s average jumps to .367 with massive bumps in BABIP, hard-hit rate, and wRC+ when he faces left-handers, and today he draws southpaw Colton Gordon. Gordon is already struggling (.302 BAA overall), but that mark climbs to .309 vs right-handed hitters along with higher ERA and FIP. Pitch mix is favorable: Gordon throws fastballs 41 % of the time (Bregman .382 wOBA), sliders 30.8 % (.342), plus a curve (.527), sinker (.434), and change (.402)—all well north of league-average damage. With elite recent form, a handedness advantage, and extra motivation, the tout framed this as the safest anchor for the parlay.

Kenny G leaned to the Red Sox at +112, arguing that Hunter Brown’s recent dip in form makes Houston too expensive. Brown is still 9-5 with a 2.54 ERA, but Kenny pointed out he has been hittable over the last month and young arms often tail off late in the season. Boston’s bullpen, currently grading top-three in MLB by ERA, can cover a bullpen game if manager Alex Cora goes that route, so the lack of a listed starter is not a concern. Offensively, Boston has scored 13, 8, 4, 4, 4 and 2 runs during a 4-1 stretch and ranks eighth in OBP and fourth in runs. Fenway has also been kind: 34-21 straight-up and 30-23-2 to the under. With Houston only 27-23 on the road and 24-21-5 to the under, Kenny thinks the market is still pricing the Astros like the 2023 juggernaut and sees value grabbing the plus money on the Sox.

With no line posted yet, Kenny G said he is likely to back Boston once numbers open. His logic: Brayan Bello (6-5, 3.32 ERA) dominated Minnesota in early May and faces a Twins lineup that ranks 21st in runs and 23rd in batting average while scoring 5-5-2-3-1-3 in its last six. Minnesota has lost three of four, Byron Buxton just hit the IL with a rib issue, the bullpen owns one of MLB’s worst ERAs, and probable starter Zebby Matthews (2-2, 4.97 ERA) may be dealing with late-breaking injury news. Boston’s bullpen sits fourth in MLB with a 3.37 ERA, and even though the Sox’s sticks have cooled (8-4-4-4-2 recently) they’re still fourth in runs scored on the year. Kenny said he “very likely” leans Red Sox given the pitching edge and Twins injuries but will confirm once odds are released.

Eric Lindquist said he plans to attack the Twins’ team total by betting Brayan Bello under 2.5 earned runs on Wednesday. Lindquist expects Minnesota’s lineup to be severely watered-down: Byron Buxton just hit the IL, Carlos Correa is banged up, and trade chatter has Willie Castro and several other bats possibly on the move. Pair that lack of firepower with Bello’s extreme ground-ball profile and Lindquist thinks run prevention comes naturally. He called the current version of the Twins offense 'ridiculous how bad they are right now' and views the under 2.5 ER number as a solid way to fade them.

Even without odds posted, Kenny G stated he will likely back Boston once numbers drop. His edge centers on Minnesota’s mounting issues: the Twins have lost three of four, own a bottom-10 offense on the season (21st runs, 23rd AVG) and just placed Byron Buxton on the IL. Their bullpen sports an ugly 4.60 ERA, and projected starter Zebby Matthews may be scratched or pitching hurt. Boston counters with Brayan Bello (3.32 ERA), a strong bullpen ranked top-4 at 3.37 ERA, and an offense that still sits 4th in runs and 9th in average despite a modest recent stretch. Kenny expects the Sox to be short favorites or small dogs and plans to pounce once books hang a line.

Lonte Smith agreed with the Boston side and added a lean to the full-game over. Bello has been steady, giving up zero to three earned in every start over the last three months, although only two of those outings were on the road. Ober, meanwhile, is a "complete failure" in Lonte’s words, with a 9.00 July ERA. He expects Boston’s lineup to get to Ober early and often, making the live total and Red Sox moneyline both attractive.

Malcom Bamford leaned to Boston around pick ’em if Bailey Ober gets the ball. Ober has a 9.00 ERA across five July starts, routinely putting Minnesota in multi-run holes. While Brayan Bello has allowed exactly three earned in each of his last two, Malcom likes that he generally keeps Boston in every game. With Minnesota’s rotation in flux following the Paddack trade, Malcom prefers the more stable side in the Sox.

Cash Out Sports Picks grabbed the Red Sox money line behind Brayan Bello, who has already logged 10 quality starts (just one fewer than all of last season) and has led Boston to wins in four of his last five turns. Minnesota counters with rookie Zebby Matthews, owner of 13 homers allowed and 71 hits in only 55+ innings. With Boston’s deeper, more powerful lineup and Bello’s consistency, the tout expects the visitors to control the series finale.

Guy Boston Sports said the best way to attack Twins–Red Sox is riding Boston’s offense. He still likes the money-line angle he mentioned earlier but shifted his focus to the team-total and full-game OVER because Minnesota is rolling out 25-year-old David Pearson, a surprise call-up with only seven Triple-A outings on his resume. The tout expects nerves to show against a lineup that has averaged ‘four-plus runs basically every night’ since the deadline reshuffle. He added that the Twins rank near the bottom of MLB in run value versus four-seam fastballs—the pitch Lucas Giolito throws 48 percent of the time—so Giolito should buy the Red Sox bats extra plate appearances. With Byron Buxton likely sidelined again and Boston available at anything close to even money, he wants Red Sox ML plus a ladder on their team-total if books hang 4 or lower, projecting 5–6 runs from Boston alone.

Guy Boston Sports likes Boston on the moneyline with Lucas Giolito facing Minnesota’s surprise call-up David Pearson (25-year-old making his MLB debut). Pearson has just seven Triple-A appearances this year; Giolito, meanwhile, owns a 2.10 ERA over his last two road starts and now returns to Fenway. The Twins rank bottom-eight in run value versus four-seam fastballs, the pitch Giolito throws 48 %. Byron Buxton is likely out again, further thinning a lineup that already dropped to 24th in wRC+ this month. If books hang anything close to even money, Guy is firing on Red Sox ML and may ladder their team-total over 4 given the wet Fenway forecast.

Lonte Smith called his shot on Trevor Story to leave the yard against Chris Paddack. He wants to fade Paddack’s ugly recent form—five-plus earned runs in two of his last three starts and six home runs allowed in his last four—and trusts Story’s pull-side power in Fenway. Story homered the last time Smith backed him, and the Red Sox shortstop owns a .556 slugging percentage versus right-handers throwing a fastball/change-up combo like Paddack’s. Smith expects Boston’s lineup to jump on Paddack early and sees Story as the best payout in the home-run market.

Malcom Bamford laid the short price on Boston –110, believing Lucas Giolito’s broader road body of work outweighs two rough showings in Philly and Wrigley. He highlighted the Red Sox’s consistent run support for Giolito, Minnesota’s 7-of-10 skid, and Chris Paddack’s 4.95 ERA (6.07 career mark versus Boston) as key edges. With the Twins offense sputtering and Buxton day-to-day, Bamford expects Boston’s high-octane bats to carry the night while Giolito settles back into his earlier form.