Bettor Mark likes Boston at –130, explaining that Jose Pepiot shows flashes but is inconsistent, while Brayan Bayo has been “serviceable” and now gets run support from a Red Sox lineup that is finally healthy and getting regular at-bats for Rafael Devers and Wilyer Abreu. With Fenway’s park factor and a surging offense, he prefers the BoSox side even though he did not label it an official play.

Cash Out Sports Picks laid out a case for the Red Sox moneyline. Boston is 7-2 vs Tampa this season and seeks a four-game sweep. They own a 29-20 record at Fenway, lead the AL with 275 home runs scored in their park, and hit .267 there. Brayan Bello has been superb at home (4-2, 3.38 ERA; 2.52 ERA last four Fenway starts with 20 K). Conversely, Ryan Pepiot is 1-3 with a 3.72 ERA on the road and was torched for six runs by Boston in April. The Rays have lost nine of twelve away games, while the Sox ride an eight-game win streak—the handicapper trusts Bello and Boston’s form to continue.

Mike Maher pointed out that Masataka Yoshida returned to the Red Sox lineup this week but is still rostered in just 5% of Yahoo, 3% of ESPN, and 12% of CBS leagues. Maher stressed that while the ceiling is modest, Yoshida offers a bankable batting average in the .285-.300 range, everyday runs/RBI volume, and could see even steadier plate appearances once Boston inevitably thins its left-handed logjam at the trade deadline. Maher labeled Yoshida an immediate add in 12-team or deeper formats that use batting average, calling him the type of "high floor" bat contenders forget they need until September.

Matt Perrault said bettors should back Garrett Crochet and the surging Red Sox on the -1.5 run line at +115 against the Rays. Boston has won eight straight, and every Crochet victory since June has cashed the run line (final scores of 6-4, 13-6, 3-1, 2-1, 10-7, 3-1). The left-hander owns a 2.79 ERA with a .230 opponent average at Fenway and should get a longer leash in his final start before the All-Star break. Perrault acknowledged Shane Baz’s solid 3.10 road ERA, but Tampa has lost the last two Baz outings 5-1 and 4-3. Given Boston’s current form and Crochet’s run-line profile, Perrault is willing to take the plus money.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended the Red Sox moneyline. Boston enters on a seven-game heater while Tampa Bay has dropped eight of eleven. All-Star southpaw Branden Crochet leads MLB in innings and strikeouts and draws a Rays lineup that has gone cold versus left-handed pitching. Although Shane Baz has been solid, the surrounding Tampa offense has sputtered, and Crochet’s dominance coupled with Fenway’s rocking atmosphere gives Boston a decided edge. With momentum and matchup in their favor, the tout urged bettors to back the Sox.

Joey Pisapia advised fantasy managers not to trade away Lucas Giolito despite inquiries after another scoreless outing. Giolito blanked Colorado for six innings with six strikeouts and now owns a 2.83 ERA over his last four starts. Pisapia highlighted that Giolito’s revamped fastball shape has regained the ride that once made him elite, allowing his changeup to play up again. Velocity and spin have held steady even against stiffer lineups, indicating the improvement is skill-based rather than opponent-driven. Because trade offers he has seen remain underwhelming—managers still remember last year’s blow-ups—Pisapia prefers to hold the right-hander and enjoy what he views as a sustainable rebound.

Pisapia recommended laying the ‑1.5 run line on Boston at ‑142. He pointed out that Lucas Giolito has strung together multiple quality starts since tweaking his pitch mix and now draws a Rockies lineup that ranks bottom-three in road wRC+. At the same time, Colorado’s pitching staff owns the league’s worst ERA away from Coors. Pisapia believes Fenway’s short left field magnifies Boston’s power advantage and predicts the Red Sox will give Giolito plenty of run support to cover the spread, even if bettors need to commit two units for a worthwhile return.

Pisapia highlighted Romy Gonzalez as an under-the-radar bench piece because he qualifies across the entire infield and is batting .338 with four steals. Over the last week he’s hitting .400+ and, per Welsh, owns a ridiculous 15% barrel rate, 60% hard-hit rate, and .300+ xBA while striking out minimally. He is hammering lefties (.400 AVG, every homer), making him an ideal short-side platoon partner in daily formats—pair him with Wilyer Abreu or Masataka Yoshida for full coverage. If Boston moves Jarren Duran or others at the deadline, even more at-bats could open up. Deep-league managers should stash him now.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Red Sox on the money line in Thursday’s opener. The tout leaned on Walker Bueller’s extreme home/road splits—3.93 ERA in seven Fenway starts versus an ugly 8.66 on the road—and the fact he is already 2-0 against Tampa this season. Boston’s offense is elite at home, carrying a .268 average (2nd in the AL) and 255 runs scored (tied for most in the league). Meanwhile, Rays starter Taj Bradley is just 2-3 with a 4.04 ERA away from Tropicana, and Tampa has gone 3-6 across its last three road series. Boston has also taken five of the last seven head-to-head meetings, so the tout sees momentum and matchup advantages pointing squarely to the Sox.

B Wade recommended Roman Anthony over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs, stressing lineup correlation with leadoff man Jarren Duran. Anthony has gone over this number in nine of his last ten, clawing his average up from the low .100s to .271 vs right-handed pitching. Wade likes stacking the 1-2 hitters because a Duran single sets up Anthony for an immediate RBI and vice-versa. The matchup with Taj Bradley is another plus: Boston is scorching hot and Bradley has been shelled on the road almost all year. With the Fenway offense humming, Wade expects Anthony to keep cashing this combo prop.

B Wade said to take Jarren Duran over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs. He pointed to Boston’s ridiculous form – 9.3 runs per game across their last six contests against Washington and Colorado – and the fact the red-hot Duran is batting leadoff, giving him maximum plate appearances. Duran has cashed this line in seven of his past ten games and is riding a roughly 10-game hit streak. Versus right-handers he owns a .289 average, and he has handled Thursday’s starter Taj Bradley in limited action (4-for-11, .364). Bradley’s road ERA is pushing 5.00, with three-plus runs allowed in every away start outside of a brief June blip, so Wade expects Boston’s lineup to keep rolling and Duran to rack up counting stats again.

Bill Harrelson said he is taking Jarren Duran for more than 1.5 total bases on Thursday in Tampa Bay. Duran has cleared this line in five of his last six contests, averaging 3.3 total bases, and just posted 5- and 6-base games at Coors. Against the Rays he has gone over in four of the last five meetings, torching them twice this season for four-base nights. FanDuel is hanging the over at –135, a price Harrelson called "insanity" and a clear indicator books expect another big night. Duran owns a .364 average with multiple extra-base hits in 12 plate appearances versus Taj Bradley, and his slash line jumps from .259 overall to .285 against right-handers. With about four projected plate appearances in the leadoff spot and every major book shaded to the over, Harrelson labeled the play one of his favorite PrizePicks cards of the day.

Matt Perrault urged bettors to keep attacking Boston’s team-total over 4.5 runs (-122) against the Rays. He noted the Red Sox have piled up 78 runs in their last 10 games and erupted for 29 runs in a three-game set with Colorado. Boston has scored 5+ runs in eight of its last nine victories and carries a six-game winning streak into this matchup. They’ve already faced Tampa six times, scoring 4, 3, 8, 1, 7 and 1 runs. Perrault pointed out Taj Bradley’s vulnerability on the road – a 4.04 ERA with 22 earned runs in 49 innings – and highlighted that opponents have plated 10, 5, 8, 1, 5 and 5 runs in Bradley’s last six outings. With Fenway’s friendly park factors and Boston’s lineup on a heater, Perrault expects five or more runs regardless of the final outcome, making the team-total over his first full-unit play.

Matt Perrault advised betting the Red Sox over 5.5 runs because Boston owns the hottest lineup in baseball — 86 runs across their last ten games, their best stretch since 2015. At Fenway (27-20 record) they now face Antonio Senzatela’s brutal road profile (6.32 ERA, 1-6 record, .380 BAA, 7 HR in 37 IP). Even when Senzatela survives, Colorado’s bullpen collapses, evidenced by Tuesday’s 10-2 final that was scoreless through five. Lucas Giolito’s home volatility gave Perrault pause, but he noted the right-hander has allowed one total earned run in his past two Fenway starts, meaning Boston’s offense should see plenty of clean innings to mash against a Rockies staff that ranks dead last in bullpen ERA. He framed it simply: “bet the streak” until the Red Sox stop raking.

Scott Reichel said his favorite lock is Boston –1.5 at roughly –125. He loves the simple combination of a red-hot Red Sox lineup and the chance to fade Antonio Senzatela plus a Rockies club that continues to flounder on the road. Reichel emphasized that laying the run line lets bettors back the clearly better offense at what he considers a very reasonable price, adding that Senzatela’s track record away from Coors gives Boston multiple paths to a multi-run win.

Dylan Rockford pounded the Over 9 at –110 in Rockies-Red Sox, saying his model spits out 9.9. He called Antonio Senzatela a "gas can" after the right-hander allowed 4-plus runs in five of his last six outings and owns a 5.88 xERA. Boston’s bats are white-hot, averaging 5.33 runs per game at Fenway and hanging 36 runs in their last four contests. The total has cashed in five straight Red Sox games and four of Colorado’s last five, trends Rockford expects to continue with warm summer weather boosting carry. He is comfortable playing the over up to 9.5 given Colorado’s league-worst 5.60 road ERA and Senzatela’s .327 opponent average away from Coors.

B Wade finished his card with Roman Anthony to record at least one single. The rookie has delivered a single in 8 of his last 10 games (12 singles total during that stretch). He faces a Rockies starter saddled with a 3-12 record, 6.50 ERA and 1.90 WHIP, metrics Wade described as "abysmal." Given Anthony’s current table-setting form and Colorado’s pitching woes, Wade sees a lone base hit as the safest way to include the young outfielder in parlays, though he admitted the broader hits-runs-RBIs markets are also viable.

B Wade backed Lucas Giolito to stay under 2.5 earned runs against Colorado. Giolito’s ERA has dropped to 3.60 because he has surrendered only three earned runs TOTAL across his last five outings, and just two poor starts in his last ten blemish an otherwise dominant run. Wade noted the Rockies’ anemic road offense and called their current form "not likely to get off" against Giolito. To bust the under, Colorado would need to match the entire five-game earned-run output Giolito has allowed recently in a single start—something Wade views as highly improbable.

It’s The Final Round recommended betting Roman Anthony props (baseline one hit or the juicier 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs) against Antonio Senzatela. The Rockies right-hander is yielding a sky-high .364 average to left-handed hitters, and the Red Sox’s No. 1 prospect is beginning to flash his projected .300/30-HR upside. Over the past week Anthony is batting .364 with 9 hits, a homer, 5 RBIs and 5 runs; on Tuesday he added another hit, RBI and run, giving him 2 MLB homers already. With Senzatela described as “basically throwing batting practice,” Jordan expects Anthony’s hot streak to continue and sees value in backing his hitter props on Wednesday.

It’s The Final Round said Trevor Story is a strong play to record at least one hit – and preferably to smash the 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs line – on Wednesday against Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela. The tout noted that Senzatela has been brutal versus right-handed bats, surrendering a .339 average this season. Story is scorching: before Tuesday night’s homer (which is not in official data yet) he owned a .400 average over his last seven days, piling up 10 hits, 2 homers, 7 RBIs and 7 runs. More importantly, Story has been even better against right-handed pitching in that span, batting .438. With Boston already hanging double-digit runs Tuesday and Senzatela “basically throwing batting practice,” Jordan expects Story to stay hot and cash hitter-friendly props.

Lonte Smith recommended loading up on Trevor Story’s hitting markets—specifically total bases and an anytime homer—against his former club, Colorado. Story enters the matchup on an eight-game hit streak that includes three home runs, and Lonte believes facing Rockies pitching at Fenway is the ideal "get-right" spot to keep that run alive. Colorado will lean on a bottom-five staff that owns a 5.34 road ERA and just allowed 27 runs in three games over the weekend. Story’s 52% pull rate at Fenway pairs nicely with the short left-field wall, and his homer prop is trading between +425 and +475. Smith said he is betting the HR number both tonight and tomorrow in case the first salvo doesn’t land, but he expects at least one "time-traveling dinger" during the series.

Malcom Bamford kept it simple: play Boston on the run line or attack their team total because Kyle Freeland is hopeless in this park. Freeland’s 1-9 ledger and 5.49 ERA are backed by an alarming home-run/fly-ball rate that Bamford thinks will be magnified in cozy Fenway. The Rockies remain dead-last in wRC+ and slugging on the road, so Bamford is comfortable trusting Brayan Bello’s 3.60 Fenway ERA across 10 home starts. Boston, meanwhile, scores 6.18 runs per game at home and is fresh off a 27-run weekend versus Washington. With Colorado’s offense stuck in neutral and its bullpen offering no relief, Bamford expects the Sox to win comfortably and cash the –1.5.

Lonte Smith scrapped the traditional side-and-total approach and zeroed in on Boston’s team total over (posted at 4.5 when he looked). Smith loves the match-up for the Red Sox offense after they just swept Washington while hanging 27 runs. Boston has plated five-plus in six of its last ten, is slashing nearly .300 over that stretch and averages 6.18 runs per game at Fenway. Kyle Freeland is the perfect punching bag: a 1-9 record, 5.49 ERA, heavy pitch-to-contact profile and a homer-to-fly-ball rate that balloons outside Coors. Smith noted that if Freeland doesn’t have it early, Colorado’s bullpen—30th in ERA—will only accelerate the damage. With Brayan Bello turning in two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four, Lonte expects Boston to play from ahead and clear the team-total number on their own.

Brad Pick Dawgz urged bettors to swallow the juice on Boston -1.5. His case: Colorado has been "absolutely pitiful" away from Coors Field, while the surging Red Sox have covered four straight run lines. Given Boston’s current form and the Rockies’ travel struggles, Brad expects another multi-run victory at Fenway.

Mark advised bettors to ignore Boston’s pricey moneyline and instead grab the Red Sox ‑1.5 at ‑113 or better. He also likes Boston’s team-total OVER as long as books post 5.5 or lower. His reasoning: Kyle Freeland owns an ugly road split and now has to survive Fenway’s doubles alley, while Brayan Bello gives the Sox a decisive pitching edge. Colorado is a brutal 21-70 away from Coors, so Mark does not expect them to threaten late. Both clubs have been over machines, but Boston’s lineup is the one driving the action—Trevor Story in particular is “absolutely smashing the baseball,” making him a prop target for total bases or an RBI. Given the matchup and environment, Mark expects six-plus runs from Boston and at least a two-run margin of victory.

B Wade backed Roman Anthony to eclipse 1.5 total bases at Coors Field. Since June 27, the rookie has found his footing, recording multiple bases in seven of nine games and going hitless only once. He now faces left-hander Austin Gomber, owner of a 5+ ERA and 1.50+ WHIP who has been 'getting crushed' per Wade. Although Anthony bats left-handed, his platoon splits show better production versus southpaws, adding another edge. With the friendly Coors environment and Gomber’s struggles, Wade prefers total bases over hits+runs+RBIs for the superior payout.

Scott Reichel locked in Boston –1.5 at even money, betting that Fenway’s hottest offense keeps rolling against Colorado. The Rockies are an abysmal 11-33 away from Coors with a staggering –231 run differential, and left-hander Austin Gomber enters with a 5.49 ERA. Reichel admitted Boston’s starter (he referred to him simply as ‘Fitz’) rarely works deep and the bullpen can be dicey, but he still trusts a lineup that has plated 27 runs in a three-game sweep of Washington and scored five-plus in five of its last six contests. With Trevor Story swinging a hot bat and Colorado’s defense ranking dead last in fielding percentage, Reichel envisions a 7-3 or 8-4 Red Sox win.

Dylan Rockford laid the lumber with Boston at –1.5 runs, pointing out just how lopsided the matchup is right now. The Red Sox have plated 27 runs in their three-game sweep of Washington and have scored at least five in five of their last six contests. They sit top-6 in MLB at 4.78 runs per game and carry a .251 team average. Meanwhile Austin Gomber brings a 5.49 ERA and heads the league’s worst road club (Rockies 11-33 away, –231 run differential). Rockford also noted Colorado’s dreadful .981 fielding percentage and league-worst 107 homers allowed. With Trevor Story riding an eight-game hit streak, he expects Boston to win comfortably and was thrilled to find the run-line at even money.

Cash Out Sports Picks endorsed the Red Sox money line against Washington. Garrett Crochet just finished an undefeated June (4-0, 2.90 ERA), whereas the Nationals will debut rookie Shinosuke Ogasawara, placing immediate strain on MLB’s worst bullpen (6.71 ERA over the past two weeks). Boston’s lineup has been red-hot, averaging 7.2 runs over its last five, and the Sox have taken the last three meetings between the clubs. The tout called it tough to trust Washington’s untested starter and shaky relief corps, giving Boston a clear edge.

Bill Harrelson said Trevor Story is a strong play for more than 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs tonight against Washington. Story has cleared this number in seven straight outings and in eight of his last ten overall, including an 11-H/R/RBI explosion in Game 1 of the series and two more in Game 2. Harrelson highlighted that Story is seeing roughly four plate appearances per game and now faces a left-handed starter, a split where Story is batting .272 in 85 PA compared to his .252 season average. Even though Story’s full-season hit rate on this prop is only 49 %, Harrelson wants to keep riding the ‘generational heater’ (14-for-20, 70 % recent hit rate) while the matchup and platoon advantage remain intact.

It’s The Final Round said Trevor Story is a must-target for at least one hit (and he personally plans to ladder into the Hits+Runs+RBIs market) in Sunday’s 1:35 p.m. game against Washington. The case hinges on three data points: (1) Story’s current heater—14 hits in his last seven games for a .500 average with two homers, 10 RBI and eight runs; (2) his superior performance in day games, batting .289 in early starts; and (3) a cake matchup with left-hander Shintaro Fujinami-like prospect Sinosaki Ogan Sawara, who is making his MLB debut after being rushed through the minors where he allowed a .271 average overall and the same .271 clip specifically to right-handed hitters. Jordan framed the rookie as overmatched and expects Boston’s surging lineup to pounce, making a simple ‘to record a hit’ prop—or an HRR combo—an actionable play.

Scott Reichel made Over 9.5 his lock, projecting a slugfest in Boston-Washington because Walker Buehler looks broken and Mitchell Parker is trending the wrong way. Buehler has failed to complete five innings in three straight outings and has been tagged for 24 earned runs, 10 homers and 14 walks in that span, good for a 2.3 HR/9 road split. Parker has allowed 12 earned over his last two starts and owns a 5.08 ERA since June 1. Reichel noted Boston has scored five-plus runs in three of its last four games (11 or more twice) while Washington’s offense ranks top-10 in hard-hit rate this month. With both bullpens sitting bottom-third in ERA since the All-Star break, he will play any total 10 or lower and expects something like 7-5.

Lonte Smith views Washington as a live underdog and loves the full-game Over because Walker Buehler’s numbers have cratered. Buehler hasn’t cleared four innings in his last three starts and has surrendered 4+ earned runs in five of six. On the road his last three turns: 24 ER, 10 homers allowed, and 14 walks. Smith believes any Nationals lineup that features CJ Abrams and Lane Thomas can punish that level of wildness, and starter Mitchell Parker has been serviceable enough (3.69 home ERA) to keep them in front. He is waiting for a plus-money tag on Washington but will fire as long as the Nats are no worse than -105 and will pair it with the Over 9.5.

Bill Harrelson said he is backing Trevor Story to go over 1.5 combined hits, runs, and RBIs on Saturday against the Nationals. Story is scorching, clearing this line in six straight and 8 of his last 10 games, highlighted by yesterday’s 4-hit, 3-run, 4-RBI explosion. Over that six-game heater he is averaging five H+R+RBI and has cashed 13 of his last 20 (65%). Books are leaning the same direction—DraftKings lists the over at –135, Hard Rock at –130, while Fliff and Sleeper are shaded to the over. Harrelson also noted a favorable platoon split: Story is batting .263 in 84 plate appearances versus left-handed pitching compared to .244 in 344 PA overall. Riding the hot hand, the advantageous split, and supportive market odds, Harrelson expects Story to eclipse 1.5 H+R+RBI again.

B Wade expects Walker Buehler to allow at least three earned runs, recommending the over 2.5 earned-runs prop. Buehler has been "absolutely cooked" in six consecutive outings, giving up 3+ earned each time and averaging five earned runs across his last five starts. Wade highlighted the young, aggressive Washington lineup featuring CJ Abrams and James Wood as another tough matchup. Given Buehler’s ongoing struggles and the Nationals’ up-and-coming bats, Wade projects another rough start and a minimum of three earned runs.

Scott Reichel laid the modest ‑120 with Boston, arguing they are rightly favored despite recent offensive lulls. Giolito has surrendered only two earned runs TOTAL over his last four starts and owns a sparkling 2.15 ERA on the road. By contrast, Mike Soroka’s 4.70 ERA and Washington’s 0-4 record in his last four appearances paint a far shakier picture. Reichel added that even with Boston’s lineup scuffling, the Red Sox still boast more pop than a Nationals club ranking bottom-third in hard-hit rate. With bullpen edges and current form leaning Boston’s way, he recommended locking in the cheaper road price before public Yankee-fan money shows up on July 4.

Kenny G leaned to the Red Sox at –115 because Lucas Giolito has been solid (4-1, 3.99 ERA, four wins in his last five starts) and Washington’s bullpen owns the worst ERA in baseball (5.89). Still, he advised bettors to stay away. The game is priced as a coin flip, Boston is just 18-25 on the road, and Kenny dislikes laying juice with road favorites when he can avoid it. He also flagged Boston’s offense as wildly volatile and worried that the Nationals’ lineup—buoyed recently by rookie James Wood—can explode without warning. With no clear edge and several volatility markers, Kenny’s actionable guidance was to skip this game rather than force a bet.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Red Sox on the money-line, laying out a laundry list of edges. Lucas Giolito has been lights-out away from Fenway, sporting a perfect 2-0 record and 2.15 ERA across five road starts, with Boston winning four of his last five outings. Washington counters with Mike Soroka, who is just 1-3 at Nationals Park and has already given up 10 homers in 11 starts. Boston’s lineup travels, ranking sixth in AL road scoring (185 runs in 43 away games), while the Nats sit near the NL basement in home AVG and runs. The Sox are fresher after a Thursday off, have a 19-17 day-game record versus Washington’s 13-23, and have taken six of the last ten head-to-head meetings. All of that, plus Soroka’s homer tendency and Boston’s rested bullpen, pushed the tout to recommend Boston ML.

Malcom Bamford skipped the money line and went straight to a Boston team-total play (5+ runs). He pointed out Martinez re-entered the rotation only because of injuries and has produced a 1-5 record with a 1.48 WHIP as a starter. Cincinnati’s bullpen is running on fumes after covering nearly nine innings Tuesday and ranks 27th in FIP for the season. Boston averages 5.1 runs per game at Fenway and just hung 13 on the same staff. With muggy weather expected to boost carry, Bamford expects the middle of the order to feast again once Martinez is chased.

Rockford bet the Red Sox –125, pricing them –135. He trusts Brayan Bello over Nick Martinez, noting Bello’s 54% ground-ball rate plays well at Fenway and Cincinnati’s lineup owns just an 89 wRC+ against right-handers on the road. The Reds bullpen is worn down (bottom-10 ERA overall and threw 8.2 innings Tuesday after Chase Burns recorded one out). Boston’s offense appears awake, tallying 31 runs in its last three, and ranks sixth in hard-hit rate at home. Dylan believes Martinez’s 4.82 ERA as a starter and Cincinnati’s shaky pen make the short number too cheap.

B Wade played Roman Anthony Over 0.5 Hits as a conservative but high-percentage correlate to his Singer fade. MLB’s consensus No. 1 prospect has finally adjusted, logging three, two, and two hits in his last three contests while Boston totaled 13 runs against Cincinnati’s staff. Batting near the top of a surging order facing Singer’s pronounced road splits, Anthony needs only one safety—something Wade feels is highly probable and even offers upside for those wanting to ladder total bases or HRR.

His first official wager was UNDER 8 (–130) at Fenway, trusting rookie Chase Burns’ 97 mph sinker/slider mix after an 81-pitch, 5-IP debut at Yankee Stadium and banking on Garrett Crochet’s continued dominance (2.04 FIP, 31 % K-rate over his last five). Mark expects both clubs to be cautious with pitch counts—Boston because Crochet is nearing a career-high workload and Cincinnati because Burns is fresh from Double-A. With a 7 mph in-blowing breeze and both bullpens ranking top-10 in xFIP over the last two weeks, he projects no more than six or seven total runs.

Just A Bet Outside flagged Garrett Crochet’s under 1.5 earned runs at +115 as his favorite lean. Cincinnati has been abysmal versus lefties, posting a 79 wRC+ (23rd) and .234 average (21st) over the last three weeks. The Reds have scored two or fewer earned runs off each of the last five southpaws they faced—including aces Max Fried and Carlos Rodon—and none of those pitchers boast Crochet’s current form. The Red Sox lefty has held opponents below two earned runs in 11 of 17 starts and in five of seven at Fenway, with the lone blow-up fueled by five uncharacteristic walks. As long as Crochet commands the zone, the host expects six strong innings against a lineup that has never seen him.

Matt Perrault backed the Red Sox on the run line behind Garrett Crochet, calling it “Crochet Day” and predicting Boston wins comfortably. He cited Crochet’s Cy-Young-caliber form—2.06 ERA overall, 2.13 ERA at Fenway, and at least seven strikeouts in each of his last four starts (10-8-7-9-12 in June). Crochet nearly went the distance versus New York last outing and has dominated both home and road slates. Perrault expects him to carve up a Reds lineup that is among the league leaders in K-rate. On the other side, rookie right-hander Chase Burns makes only his second MLB start and now has to navigate Fenway’s quirks; Burns struck out five in a row against the Yankees but still allowed three earned on six hits across five innings. Perrault believes Boston’s veterans—Rafael Devers, Trevor Story and the recently hot Ceddanne Rafaela—will punish any mistakes while Crochet suppresses Cincinnati’s offense, making the Sox a strong play to win by multiple runs.

Scott Reichel played the under 8 in Reds–Red Sox, leaning on Garrett Crochet’s red-hot form and two weak lineups. Crochet has yielded just two earned runs across his last 22⅓ innings while piling up 25 strikeouts against four walks. Boston’s bats remain ice-cold, and Cincinnati owns a .218 average against left-handed pitching. Reichel added that rookie Chase Burns fanned the first five hitters in his debut and should miss bats again despite making his first road start. With both clubs scuffling offensively and Crochet working deep, Reichel projected a 4-2 type game and would play the total down to 7½.

Razzle called Garrett Crochet his favorite arm tonight. The left-hander owns elite swing-and-miss stuff and faces a Reds lineup that has hemorrhaged fantasy points to southpaws in Great American Ball Park. Despite Crochet’s odd home/road K-split (lower K-rate in Fenway), Razzle is locking him in because DraftKings hung an unprecedented 8.5 strike-out prop—evidence that books expect double-digit Ks. He plans to anchor GPP builds around Crochet’s ceiling.

Malcom Bamford doubled down on Boston’s offense, betting the RED SOX TEAM TOTAL OVER and nothing else. He described Tyler Anderson as simply "hittable," citing 4-6-3-5 earned-run lines his last four turns. Boston’s .273 average vs lefties and familiarity after already seeing Anderson once are key edges. Crochet’s back-to-back one-run outings should keep the game close early, but Bamford expects the offense to explode once Anderson’s command wavers. He flagged catcher Logan O’Hoppe as the only Angel in form but doesn’t think that is enough to offset Boston’s run production. Projection: Red Sox score 6+ by the seventh inning.

Lonte Smith called Boston –200 a perfect parlay anchor and paired it with TEAM TOTAL OVER 4.5 because Tyler Anderson’s early-season magic has disappeared. Anderson has dropped three straight decisions with a 7.07 ERA, allowing 4+ earned in five of his last seven. Boston crushes southpaws (.273 average) and already tagged Anderson for five earned in 4.1 IP earlier this month. Garrett Crochet, meanwhile, has delivered five consecutive quality starts (2.65 ERA, 0.94 WHIP) and has surrendered two or fewer in nine of ten overall. Smith expects Boston’s lineup to do most of the scoring in a revenge spot after the Angels stole two of three at Fenway. Recommended card: Red Sox ML in parlays, Red Sox TT over, and full-game OVER 8.

Kenny G is willing to swallow the −195 moneyline on Boston, arguing that Garrett Crochet (2.20 ERA, Red Sox 4-1 in his last five) is in a different class than Tyler Anderson (4.56 ERA, Angels 1-4 in his last five). Boston’s bullpen ranks sixth in MLB with a 3.35 ERA, while the Angels relief corps remains a disaster and their offense sits 21st in runs and 29th in average. Kenny concedes Boston’s bats have cooled after the trade deadline, but he still expects Crochet to control a mediocre Anaheim lineup long enough for the Sox to cash, making them the only viable side.

Guy Boston Sports recommended Connor Wong under 1.5 combined hits, runs and RBIs versus the Angels. Wong owns a .138 batting average and .172 wOBA against right-handed pitching this season, and he will see a heavy diet of sinkers (36%) and sliders (32%) from Jack Kachanowicz. Although Wong grades league-average versus those individual pitches, the rookie’s 55% ground-ball rate should suppress Wong’s limited power. Guy doubts Boston will string rallies together behind Wong in the bottom third of the lineup, especially with Kachanowicz limiting righties to a .259 OBP. He projected Wong for 1.1 HRR and would play the under down to –135 juice.

Razzle admitted Walker Buehler (whom he accidentally called Walker Bills) looks gross after an ugly blow-up, yet he cannot ignore the Angels’ strikeout habits: LAA fans the second-most in MLB overall and exceeds 10 K’s per game at home. Books hung Buehler’s strikeout prop at a modest 4.5, juiced to the over, despite the Halos’ free-swinging ways. Even though Buehler has cleared that number only twice in his last seven, Razzle will bet the over and plug him into DFS line-ups as a late-night hammer, banking on the ballpark-friendly 70-degree environment and a whiff-happy lineup to revive his ceiling.