Peter Appel strongly recommends betting the White Sox over their team total runs against Ben Lively and the Cleveland Guardians. Appel notes that Cleveland starter Ben Lively has allowed at least two earned runs in 15 of his past 19 starts (79%) and went over 1.5 earned runs in 10 of his past 14 home starts (71%). Facing the current White Sox hitters, Lively has struggled to a .286 batting average and an elite .454 xwOBA allowed, coupled with a low 12.5% strikeout rate—one of the worst pitcher-matchups on today's slate. Historically, Chicago's top hitters Mike Tauchman, Andrew Benintendi, and Andrew Vaughn are batting .461 collectively (6-for-13) against Lively, with multiple extra-base hits. Furthermore, despite the Guardians bullpen historically being strong, Appel points out Cleveland relievers currently rank a middling 19th in WHIP this season and have had some concerning underlying metrics (4.13 FIP). Given these factors, Appel confidently projects 3.7 runs for Chicago, recommending betting the team total number up to -150 odds.