Dylan Rockford played the White Sox first-five team total under (1.5). He pointed to Griffin Canning’s Citi Field dominance—no more than one run allowed in four of five home starts—and Chicago’s league-worst road splits: 2.8 runs per game and a .218 average versus right-handers. Given those numbers, Rockford doubts the Sox scratch out more than a single early run.

Malcolm Bamford recommended betting the first-five innings under in White Sox-Mets. He highlighted Shane Smith’s 2.10 ERA in five road starts and Griffin Canning’s 2.88 season ERA. First-five unders have cashed in seven of Smith’s ten outings and eight of Canning’s ten. Bamford added that Chicago’s offense is brutal on the road, averaging only 2.8 runs per game, so the pitching should dominate the early frames.

JDBetsHQ grabbed Chicago +1.5 runs at +105, trusting his model that shows the White Sox quietly stacking offensive advantages despite their record. New York rolls out Tylor McGill, who has allowed 4.4 earned runs on average over his last four outings and has cashed the OVER on 2.5 earned runs in 80 % of starts this season. Jonathan Cannon, while no ace, has surrendered fewer than three earned runs in 60 % of his appearances and is giving up just 4.0 hits per start. Sheet logos were overwhelmingly in favor of Chicago hitters, and the Mets’ lineup owns only three positive historical matchups. With Cannon’s contact suppression and McGill in a rough stretch, JDBetsHQ thinks one run of insurance is plenty against a Mets club that needed late-game luck to win yesterday.

Lonte Smith took a swing on the White Sox at +210 and grabbed the +1.5 run line, arguing the market overrates Tyler McGill and an uneven Mets bullpen. Smith highlighted Shane Smith’s 2.36 ERA and sparkling 49-to-18 K/BB ratio, noting he has given up two earned or fewer in five of six starts and in four of five on the road. McGill has surrendered four-plus earned in three of his last four versus significantly stronger offenses, and New York’s bullpen has regressed since its hot April. Chicago just battled Texas tough over the weekend and, despite a 5-21 road mark, Smith thinks the price compensates. He expects a tight, low-scoring contest where the underdog’s pitching edge can steal it late.

Eric Pathi said the smartest play on Memorial Day is taking the Chicago White Sox +1.5 runs at +120 versus the New York Mets. Pathi argued the Mets are consistently over-valued by bookmakers: despite a solid 31-21 record over their last 52 games, bettors backing New York in every one of those contests would have cleared only $171 because the club is almost always laying steep money-line prices (around –300 in this matchup). By grabbing the run-and-a-half with plus money, Pathi believes you are fading an inflated favorite while still getting protection on a close Mets win, creating a high-value position on the South Siders.

Just A Bet Outside highlighted Garrett Crochet as the lone strike-out spot he actually likes on Monday. Milwaukee owns the 11th-highest strike-out rate over the last three weeks (24.5%), and Crochet continues to miss bats at an elite clip—78 punch-outs in 68.1 IP. The host noted Crochet’s K-rate jumps to 29.7% on the road (vs. 27.8% at home) and absolutely spikes against left-handed hitters (37.5%). After posting only five Ks versus the Mets in his last start—his second-lowest total of the season—he registered eight and nine strikeouts in the two prior outings, reinforcing ceiling potential. Given Milwaukee’s swing-and-miss profile and Crochet’s underlying metrics, the tout framed his Over strike-out prop as the best pitching angle on today’s board and a DFS core play.

Eric Lindquist advised taking the UNDER on Garrett Crochet’s 6.5-strikeout prop versus Milwaukee. Lindquist noted that Crochet’s gaudy 35.1% K-rate last year came in short relief stints. Now that the White Sox are letting him work deeper into games, Lindquist expects natural regression due to innings-based arm fatigue. He added that public bettors routinely push Crochet’s number higher because of name recognition, creating value on the under when books open at 6.5 or higher. While the Brewers are mediocre against lefties, Lindquist still projects fewer than seven punch-outs, making the under a plus-EV wager.

Eric Halterman recommended adding Chase Meidroth again now that he is healthy and back atop the White Sox lineup. The rookie owns a career 17 % minor-league walk rate and 425 OBP, and is holding a .381 OBP with an 11 % walk rate through 27 MLB games. Concerns about speed have faded after eight steals already, pushing him from two-category to three-category contributor (average, runs, SB). With just a 1 % barrel rate and 56 % ground-ball rate, Halterman does not expect power, but daily leadoff plate appearances and green-light baserunning make Meidroth a priority grab in any league that counts OBP or steals.

Erik Halterman urged fantasy managers to scoop Miguel Vargas off the waiver wire. Vargas sits fourth among qualified hitters in Ideal Attack Angle, pairs that with an 8% barrel rate and a 17% strike-out rate—numbers similar to last year’s breakouts Josh Naylor and Luis Garcia Jr. After opening the year with a .139 average over 20 games, Vargas has slashed .316/.368/.592 with six homers and only a 10% strike-out rate across his last 26 games. Halterman believes the superior attack-angle consistency and recent plate-discipline surge signal that 2024 could be the season everything clicks for the 24-year-old, making him an immediate add in season-long formats.

Kenny G grabbed the White Sox at +120, citing a tale of two trajectories. Texas has dropped six straight, owns an anemic offense ranked 27th in runs and carries a 4.20 bullpen ERA. Spot starter Patrick Corbin (3-3, 3.59 ERA) has yielded exactly three earned in back-to-back outings and has not yet faced Chicago. On the flip side, Davis Martin has quietly posted a 3.49 ERA and is coming off 7.1 strong innings (2 ER) versus Seattle. Chicago’s lineup has come alive, winning three of four and hanging 10 runs on Texas Saturday. While the Sox bullpen remains a concern (4.55 ERA), Kenny believes current form and the plus money outweigh that risk—especially against a Rangers side pressing for answers and just 8-18 on the road.

Maher countered by locking in Garrett Crochet despite acknowledging the southpaw’s limited workload history. Crochet sports a sub-2.00 ERA and elite 32% strike-out rate, and Maher is willing to brave road dates at Milwaukee and Atlanta. The Brewers are middle-of-the-pack against lefties, while Atlanta’s order is more daunting, but Ronald Acuna will just be returning from injury. Maher expects Crochet’s overpowering fastball/slider combo to play in any park and believes the upside justifies the risk, especially in leagues where strikeouts are at a premium.

Ron grabbed Chicago as a home dog, doubting Patrick Corbin’s ability to justify road chalk. While Corbin has been better in 2025, he faltered against the Yankees and Texas is just 1-4 in his last five starts. On the flip side, Davis Martin keeps the ball on the ground (14-9 GB/FB last outing) and owns only two walks in 23 May innings. With the Rangers’ offense ranking among MLB’s worst on the road, Romanelli sees the White Sox as the sharper side.

Kenny G recommended betting Under 8.5 runs when Jack Leiter squares off with Jonathan Cannon. Texas has been unwatchable at the plate—losers of five straight while putting up 1, 0, 3, 2 and 3 runs—and now sits 27th in scoring and 28th in OBP. Leiter owns a 4.25 ERA but just held Houston to three earned over seven; he gets a gift draw versus a Chicago lineup tied for 28th in runs and dead last in batting average (.219). Cannon’s 3.76 ERA keeps improving; he has allowed three or fewer earned in four straight starts, including six scoreless versus Cincinnati. Kenny is not enamored with either bullpen (Texas 3.90 ERA; Chicago worse), yet he trusts them against the league’s two coldest offenses. Betting splits support the play—Rangers are 14-9-1 to the under on the road and Chicago’s park is playing neutral with a 12-10-2 under record. Kenny even mentioned NRFI but made Under 8.5 his preferred wager, forecasting another 4-2 or 3-3 game that never threatens nine runs.

Smith pushed even harder on the South Side, playing Chicago first-five money line and full-game money line at +155. Cannon has allowed just two total earned runs across his three home starts and carries a 28% strike-out rate when pitching in Chicago. While Leiter did stabilize after surrendering 10 earned his first two May outings, Smith noted his swinging-strike rate is still below league average and he walks nearly 12% of hitters. Given that neither lineup can be trusted, Smith prefers shortening the game to fade the Rangers’ inconsistent bullpen (4.51 ERA last 14 days) and will sprinkle the full game as well, pairing both wagers with the Under 8.0.

Reichel is not laying –185 with a Texas club that is 8-16 on the road and ranks 27th in runs per game this month. Instead he took White Sox +1.5 at –115, projecting a 3-2 type grinder. Chris Cannon sports a 1.17 ERA at Guaranteed Rate Field and has given up fewer than four earned in five straight starts. Jack Leiter flirted with a no-hitter against Houston but the Rangers have dropped four of his five outings and he owns a 5.87 xERA. Both offenses sit bottom-four in scoring and hard-hit rate, so Reichel expects every run to matter and views the extra hook as valuable insurance.

Bevilacqua relayed that the Dimers model recommends White Sox +1.5 at -128 against Seattle. Simulations give Chicago a 58.2% chance to cover, producing a 2.0% edge versus the posted price. The projection leans on the Mariners’ league-average run differential and the Sox bullpen’s recent improvement, making the extra run and a half valuable in a mid-afternoon matchup.

Boston suggested fading the White Sox offense with a team-total UNDER (either full game or F5) due to brutal hitting conditions at Guaranteed Rate Field. Forecast calls for steady rain and a 15-mph wind blowing straight in, and Boston cited historical data showing run expectancy in Chicago drops 18% when winds exceed 12 mph. The White Sox already rank last in MLB in wOBA and runs per game; layering weather suppression on top makes any 3.0-plus team-total ‘too high’ in his view. Seattle’s starter is undecided, but Boston said even a replacement-level arm will benefit from the environment, and the Mariners bullpen sits eighth in xFIP over the past two weeks. He would play Chicago’s F5 TT under 1.5 at plus money or full-game under 3.5 if books hang it, projecting no more than two Sox runs all night.

Lindquist went right back to the first-five over 4.5 (–110 or better) after Monday’s push in Seattle-Chicago. His model projects 5.6 runs through five frames thanks to Bryce Wilson’s move from Milwaukee’s bullpen (career 1.55 HR/9 as a starter) into Chicago’s rotation. Seattle owns MLB’s third-highest hard-hit rate versus right-handers since May 1 and is likely to deploy six lefty bats, a split in which Wilson is allowing a .271 ISO. On the other side, Luis Castillo’s velocity dip (down 0.8 mph on the four-seamer) and mere 22% K-rate over his last four starts leave him vulnerable to Chicago’s right-handed power, especially at Guaranteed Rate Field where the wind projects to be blowing out to left at 11 mph.

John Venezia advised adding Jonathan Cannon despite Chicago's overall struggles. Cannon is rostered in only 8% of leagues yet has strung together four consecutive quality starts. Over 50 innings he holds a 39-to-17 K:BB, and notably has not issued a walk in his last three outings. Venezia credited a revamped cutter that now sports a 22.5% whiff rate and a 26.9% put-away percentage—more than double last season’s mark—as the driving force behind the surge. With Cannon among the hottest pitchers over the last few weeks, Venezia called him a low-cost pickup who can supply immediate innings and ratio help.

Peterson grabbed the White Sox at +260, noting that Cubs starter Colin Rea’s surface-level 2.48 ERA is backed by a more modest 3.22 FIP and only 7.2 K/9, hinting at regression. Meanwhile, rookie Jonathan Cannon has lifted Chicago to three wins in his last four outings with a 3.60 ERA and just four runs allowed over his past three starts. Peterson priced the Sox at +234, so the market is giving an extra 26 cents on what he views as a winnable crosstown spot.

Lonte Smith grabbed the White Sox First-5 moneyline at plus odds, backing Shane Smith’s recent form (2.10 ERA last five, two earned or fewer in four straight starts, six shutout frames in his latest outing). He pointed out that the Cubs are hitting below .200 over their last 10 games and their bullpen has imploded with a 5+ ERA, so taking Chicago full-game felt risky. By isolating the first five innings, Lonte expects Smith to outduel Jake Horton before Chicago’s league-worst relief corps can blow things up.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended the full-game over, noting the total has cashed in six straight Cubs games against AL opponents and sits 12-6 after their losses. Wrigley has played like a hitter’s park (Cubs average 5.6 R/G at home, 2nd in MLB). Smith’s middling profile—bottom-half K and BB rates, 8th-percentile chase rate, 39.5% hard-hit—meets a White Sox bullpen ranked 21st in ERA with 23 homers allowed. The Cubs pen isn’t much better (22nd, 4.59 ERA) and rookie Borden is still stretching out. Three of the last four head-to-heads went over, and short-rest angles on both clubs lean the same way. The tout expects plenty of crooked numbers from both sides.

Kenny G said the White Sox money-line at +195 is mis-priced and worthy of dog-of-the-day consideration. His confidence comes from Shane Smith’s current form (1-2, 2.08 ERA, four straight quality starts against Miami, Kansas City, Milwaukee and Minnesota) contrasted with Chicago Cubs rookie Cade Horton making his first MLB start after a shaky four-inning relief outing versus the Mets (4 H, 3 ER). Kenny pointed out the Cubs’ 4.59 bullpen ERA and their 12-7-1 home record to the over, noting Horton will not work deep and that bullpen exposure is a liability at a –235 price. He acknowledged the White Sox offense is bottom-three in every major category but credited their bullpen improvement (4.35 ERA) and framed the crosstown rivalry as a motivation booster. Road splits (White Sox 15-8 to the under, Cubs 12-8 at home) further convinced him the market is overvaluing the Cubs, giving the Sox a real chance to steal the game at almost 2-1 odds.

Dave Garofolo said the Dimers predictive analytics model made White Sox +1.5 at -102 its lone free best bet for Thursday. After thousands of simulations, the model assigns the Chicago run line a 53.1% probability of cashing, 2.6% higher than the implied odds (50.5%), creating a quantified edge worth exploiting. Garofolo noted the pick targets the 12:40 PM ET getaway-day matchup in Cincinnati and stressed that securing the extra run protects against a close road loss. All other high-edge bets from the model were held for Dimers Pro subscribers, underscoring this play as the top publicly available value on the slate.

For White Sox-Reds, Malstrom is on the YRFI because both projected starters are liabilities. Bryse Wilson and Nick Martinez each allow more than a hit per inning and struggle to strand baserunners, trends reflected in their elevated run and RBI totals allowed. With Cincinnati’s youthful core and Chicago’s few competent bats hitting at the top of the order, he expects at least one of the teams to break through before the second frame.

JD Bets recommended grabbing the White Sox +1.5 runs at –106. Since the Pope publicly revealed he is a White Sox fan, Chicago have gone 4-1 and enter Thursday on a three-game win streak after beating the Reds 4-2. Cincinnati, meanwhile, are mired in a 1-9 slide over their last ten and own MLB’s worst strikeout rate (11.6 per game). Although he considered K props for Bryce Wilson and Nick Martinez, JD decided both pitchers are too inconsistent. He prefers taking the run line with the only team in this matchup showing any positive momentum, calling the Reds’ current form ‘struggling something fierce.’

Johnny Venezia advised grabbing Tim Elko everywhere because he’s 0 % rostered yet possesses real big-league ready pop. The 26-year-old debuted with a home run in his first MLB plate appearance and brings mature plate skills after starring at Ole Miss. In Triple-A this year Elko hit .310 with 10 home runs and a 1.100 OPS, proof the power is already translating. Venezia thinks that experience will let him contribute right away as a plug-and-play utility bat or at least a bench stash that could grow into everyday value if he sticks in the middle of Chicago’s lineup.

He also went under the total despite Great American Ballpark’s hitter reputation. The Reds have a .658 OPS at home (25th) and average fewer than one homer per game there. They are missing key bats Noelvi Marte and Jake Fraley. Chicago has gone under in five of seven and in 12 of 20 road games. Cincinnati is 8-10-1 to the under at home and 6-11-1 when favored. With Abbott dealing and Chicago’s bats dormant, the tout projects limited scoring.

Todd Zola recommended streaming Shane Smith after noting the rookie has added a changeup that is already generating whiffs. Smith draws a home start against a Marlins lineup that sits below league average in wOBA and strikes out 24.5% of the time versus right-handed pitching. The weather profile at Guaranteed Rate Field (warm temps, mild wind) is pitcher-friendly per THE BAT X, and Smith’s projected line (5.1 IP, 2.2 ER, 5.3 K, 50% win probability) makes him viable in 10-team leagues.

Scott Reichel recommended White Sox first-five moneyline at –110 against Miami because rookie left-hander Drew Smith has been a pleasant surprise (2.41 ERA, 28% K-rate) while Marlins righty Edward Cabrera sports a 6.39 ERA and the league’s worst stolen-base prevention metrics (13 swipes in four starts). Chicago’s lineup is finally healthy, averaging 4.9 runs over its last seven, and boasts three of the top-15 sprint-speed players, a direct matchup nightmare for Cabrera. By backing only the first five, bettors avoid Chicago’s unreliable bullpen (5.21 ERA) and still capitalize on Miami’s 29th-ranked wRC+ versus southpaws. Reichel projected White Sox –135 for the opening half and labeled anything at or near pick-em a must-play.

Brad Francis backed the White Sox on the money line because Miami has completely fallen apart away from home, dropping six straight road games. Francis added that Chicago hands the ball to Shane Smith, whom he called "one of the better guys in this rotation," giving them the starting-pitching edge. He noted the Marlins opened the season respectably but have been "terrible" of late, and the SportsChatPlace betting tools also flashed a play on Chicago. All of that convinced Francis that the South Siders are in a sneaky buy spot despite the series being, in his words, “by far the worst of the weekend.”

Cash Out Sports Picks took the White Sox money line, largely fading Miami starter Edward Cabrera on the road. Cabrera’s lone away outing produced an 11.25 ERA and .450 opponents’ average. Chicago counters with Shane Smith, who owns a 2.70 ERA and .220 BAA in 16.2 home innings (2.41 overall across seven starts). Even the pens tilt Sox: 4.63 ERA vs Miami’s 5.26 (27th MLB). The Marlins are 4-10 away from home and carry the league’s worst team ERA (5.86). With Cabrera’s six-plus ERA and Chicago’s better bullpen, the tout expects Smith to finally get run support and secure the W.

MacPherson recommended betting Bryse Wilson under 3.5 strikeouts at +120 or better, citing Portfolio EV projections. Wilson is stretching back out after relieving but still profiles as a pitch-to-contact arm; models peg him for just 3.7 Ks. Miami’s projected lineup owns a league-low 17.7% strikeout rate since the start of last season, and Guaranteed Rate Field boosts offense compared with Wilson’s previous Miami home park. Although Wilson threw 89 pitches in his last outing and notched four punchouts, the +120 line represents a 4.3% expected ROI based on Stokastic’s simulations, making the under a +EV wager.

Just A Bet Outside said Chicago remains a punching bag for right-handed starters and recommended blindly leaning OVER on pitcher outs props until the lineup shows signs of life. He pointed out that nine of the last 13 righties who have faced the White Sox cleared their posted outs line. Over the past three weeks Chicago ranks 6th-worst in WRC+, 4th-worst in batting average and 5th-worst in OPS against right-handed pitching. Their approach helps pitchers work deep: they see the 11th-fewest pitches per plate appearance and own the 9th-highest first-pitch swing rate, leading to quick contact and pitch efficiency. The host advised targeting competent right-handed starters—especially those on 90-plus-pitch leashes—to record six full innings or more in betting markets until the Sox offense wakes up.

JD Bets targeted Davis Martin’s hits-allowed prop, saying he likes the over (needs 6+ hits) against a red-hot Royals lineup. Martin is giving up an average of 6.33 hits per start in 2025, while Kansas City is piling up 9.9 hits per game and has won five straight. The Royals have climbed from dead last in most categories two weeks ago to ‘pretty good on the bats,’ thanks to a .296 team average and 1.1 hits per inning over the current run. JD stressed he is not chasing runs—just looking for a stream of singles and bloops—because Chicago ranks only 19th in strikeout rate (8.3 K/9) and offers little swing-and-miss to bail Martin out. With Kansas City’s lineup seeing the ball well and Martin projecting to work 5–6 innings, JD expects the Royals to tag him for at least half a dozen hits.

Guy Boston advised taking Miguel Vargas under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at –130 on DraftKings. He leaned on several data points: Vargas has cashed this under in 58 % of 2025 games (21-of-36) after an 80 % hit rate in 2024. The infielder is averaging only 1.56 HRRs per game and has stayed under in four of his last five meetings with Kansas City (0.8 HRRs per game). Overall batting numbers remain poor—a .216 average and 84.6 WRC+; against lefties that drops to a .212 average and 74.6 WRC+. He faces Royals southpaw Chris Bubich, who owns a sub-3.00 ERA and holds right-handed hitters to a .214 average with drops across ERA, HR/9, and wOBA. Boston concluded that the matchup and recent form both favor the under and saw –130 as fair value.

Although he stopped short of an official play, Bettor Mark said the smartest angle in this AL Central clash is White Sox +1.5 at even money. Kansas City has won five straight but the margin has been razor-thin (2-1, 4-3, 3-0 so far in the series). With Chris Martin pitching better than expected and the Royals’ offense prone to dry spells, Mark thinks it’s more likely the game finishes 5-4 or 6-5 than a KC blow-out. Because of that, he prefers taking the run and a half instead of the juicy +205 Chicago moneyline.

Francis bet the White Sox team total under 3.5. Chicago has yet to clear that number in this entire series and now faces left-hander Kris Bubik, whom he called “a really good lefty.” Even at –150 juice he believes it’s worth playing (or using as a parlay piece) because the Sox offense simply isn’t producing four-run games right now.

Kingpin bet Over 8 runs even though eight of the last ten meetings went Under. Both bullpens rank bottom-10 in ERA, and Kris Bubic’s velocity was down 1.2 mph in his first rehab outing. Chicago’s lineup finally woke up, plating 17 runs across its Houston series, while KC averages 4.9 runs at home. Day-game temps in the mid-70s at Kauffman should help the ball carry.

Kingpin grabbed Chicago +1.5 at -104 despite Kansas City being -245 straight up. Davis Martin brings a 3.52 ERA and above-average ground-ball rate, giving the White Sox a chance to keep it tight versus Kris Bubic, who is fresh off the IL and still displaying command issues (11% walk rate in rehab). Chicago has quietly won a series against Houston and covers run lines in seven of its last ten. The Royals are only 2-5 in Bubic’s last seven home starts, so a one-run game or outright Sox upset is live.

Kenny G added that the total of 8 feels a touch high. Both clubs lean under in these splits—White Sox are 12-7 to the under on the road, Royals 13-6 to the under at home. He expects Chris Bubic to cruise against the punch-less Chicago lineup, and while Davis Martin is no ace, Kansas City’s own below-average offense (still just 24th in runs) limits blow-up risk. Combined with a top-10 KC bullpen and a less-disastrous but still serviceable Chicago pen, Kenny projected a 4-2 or 3-2 type game and said under 8 is a justifiable secondary wager.

Rob Donaldson grabbed the first-five under 4.5 in Chicago-Kansas City, laying out that both offenses can disappear for long stretches. He respects unheralded righty Davis Martin and lefty Chris Bubich, noting that each keeps the ball in the yard and owns above-average chase rates even without a big name. The White Sox have posted bottom-three wRC+ versus southpaws, while the Royals have averaged barely three runs per game over their last week. With two untrustworthy bullpens removed from the equation, Rob believes four and a hook is a gift and committed two units.

The analyst suggested the full-game under, pointing to four unders in Kansas City’s last five and six of seven for Chicago. Combined, the teams have produced only 15 runs in three games this series. Bubich’s 1.98 ERA has anchored a staff holding opponents to a .229 average, and the bullpen has cleaned up late. Chicago owns MLB’s worst batting average (.217) and averages 3.6 runs per game, fewer than three on the road. With both starters capable of six solid innings and each offense sputtering, Cash Out Sports Picks expects another quiet afternoon at Kauffman.

Dylan Rockford stayed on the under 8.0, noting it has hit all series. Bubich’s home splits are elite: 1.93 ERA, .191 opponent average in 18.2 IP. The White Sox hit just .217 versus lefties and average 3.1 runs per game on the road. Martin, arguably Chicago’s best starter, hasn’t allowed a road run in his last two outings. Forecasted 10-mph winds blowing in from center only help. Rockford’s model spit out 7.8 runs, so he happily played the under yet again.

Scott Reichel played the first-five under, expecting a sleepy start. Kris Bubich carries a sub-2.00 ERA and Davis Martin has allowed three earned runs over his last three outings combined. Neither offense is firing—Kansas City won the first two games of the set without denting the scoreboard much, and Chicago has totaled just three runs in those contests. Reichel anticipates a first-five total around 4–4.5 and sees both pitchers keeping the game quiet early.

Lindquist highlighted Michael Wacha’s persistent reverse splits as a green light for betting White Sox right-handed bat props, singling out Andrew Vaughn along with Lennyn Sosa and Edgar Quero long-shot markets. Wacha’s career-long issue resurfaced this year: a 1.26 WHIP versus righties last season has ballooned to 1.42, and his change-up loses effectiveness when he falls behind. Vaughn owns a .470 expected slugging against change-ups since 2023 and is heating up with a 55% hard-hit rate over the past week. Lindquist expects Kauffman’s mid-70s temperature and a slight cross-wind to neutralize Wacha’s park upgrade, projecting Vaughn for 1.5 total bases on average and setting a fair HR price at +525.

Joe Pisapia urged managers to aim sky-high if they shop Garrett Crochet, insisting the left-hander’s breakout merits a return such as Fernando Tatis Jr. or Francisco Lindor. Pisapia framed Crochet as a top-five fantasy starter thanks to an elite strikeout rate (over 11.0 K/9) and strong team context. He warned against two-for-one offers like Brian Woo plus Carson Kelly, stressing that Crochet’s value is too high to settle for quantity over quality. The takeaway: treat Crochet like an ace and do not move him unless you secure a true difference-making hitter.

Joe Pisapia urged managers to aim sky-high if they shop Garrett Crochet, insisting the left-hander’s breakout merits a return such as Fernando Tatis Jr. or Francisco Lindor. Pisapia framed Crochet as a top-five fantasy starter thanks to an elite strikeout rate (over 11.0 K/9) and strong team context. He warned against two-for-one offers like Brian Woo plus Carson Kelly, stressing that Crochet’s value is too high to settle for quantity over quality. The takeaway: treat Crochet like an ace and do not move him unless you secure a true difference-making hitter.

Brad Francis took Burke’s strikeout prop over 3.5. The right-hander has cleared that bar in three of his past five starts, and Kansas City’s lineup remains one of the most strikeout-prone in the league. Even with the stigma around backing anything tied to Chicago’s rotation, Francis believes four punch-outs are well within reach against these whiff-happy Royals.

Peterson played Under 8.5 (projected 7.7) because neither lineup can hit: Kansas City is 27th at 3.4 runs per game, Chicago just 3.3 runs on the road (24th). Seth Lugo’s middling strikeout rate (7.0 K/9) and 1.4 HR/9 are masked by a 3.07 ERA plus a Royals bullpen sitting seventh at 3.02 ERA. Rookie Sean Burke heads in off six scoreless frames vs Milwaukee, giving the White Sox their best recent shot at run prevention. With two struggling offenses and capable relief units, Peterson saw the number a full run too high.

Razzle is tempted by Shane Smith’s recent form—respectable outings against division foes Minnesota and Cleveland—but ultimately expects to pass. The rookie has been capped at 83 pitches all season, carries just a 3.5 K-prop (juice to the under) and owns a huge +340 win line as a road dog in Kansas City. Although the ballpark will play big with wind blowing in and gamers may chase KC bats after Sunday’s outburst, Razzle thinks the low strikeout ceiling and limited workload make Smith no more than a deep-field GPP dart.