Lonte Smith tabbed Elly De La Cruz at 25-to-1 as his favorite MVP bet. Smith expects a high-scoring exhibition and argued that De La Cruz’s rare blend of 80-grade speed and 450-foot power plays perfectly in a game where one highlight can decide the award. If the Reds phenom reaches base, Smith thinks he’ll "try to steal multiple bases," and a stolen-base/extra-base-hit combo has produced several recent MVPs. Add in the possibility of an electric defensive gem and Smith believes De La Cruz’s ceiling dwarfs the mid-tier price.

The tout advised laying the run line with Cincinnati. Colorado is 24 games under .500 on the road and considered ‘one of the all-time worst teams.’ Austin Gomber has yielded 16 runs in his last 19.1 innings and owns a 5.17 ERA across 31.1 innings versus the Reds; the Rockies have lost four straight Gomber starts. While Nick Martinez has been hittable (14 earned over last 11.2 IP), Cincinnati has still won three of his last four outings and five of their past six wins have been by multiple runs. Given Colorado’s futility and Gomber’s struggles, the handicapper is comfortable backing the Reds to win by two or more.

Calling it a potential "lock of the day," Kenny G advised backing Cincinnati at -290 or on the run line. The fade centers on Rockies rookie Bradley Blaylock, who sports a 12.94 ERA thanks largely to surrendering 12 earned on 13 hits over 3⅔ innings in a 21-0 disaster on May 10. Colorado’s bullpen is bottom-5 and its offense ranks 27th in runs and dead last in OBP, while the club is an abysmal 12-36 on the road (29-18-1 to the under because they simply cannot score). Kenny expects Brady Singer, who has been "lights-out in four of his last five," to cruise against a punchless lineup and finally get run support from a Reds offense that sits ninth in MLB scoring. Even though Cincinnati has leaned under at home (27-17-4), Kenny worries they could blow up the total by themselves, reinforcing why he prefers a side play. Fading Blaylock and the Rockies relief corps, he is comfortable eating the big number or laying a run and a half.

Harrelson’s final play was Tyler Stephenson under 0.5 runs scored. Stephenson has failed to cross the plate in eight of his last ten outings and in six straight overall. Season-long, he has stayed under this line in 34 of 53 games (64%) and 70% of his last 20. The catcher is particularly quiet at Great American Ball Park, staying scoreless in seven consecutive home games. He draws a right-handed starter who actually owns better numbers versus right-handed batters (allowing a .333 average vs righties compared to .380 overall), and Stephenson himself hits worse against right-handed pitching. Harrelson expects roughly 3.5 plate appearances but believes Cincinnati’s matchup and Stephenson’s splits keep him off the scoreboard.

Cash Out Sports Picks said the only rational move is backing Cincinnati to win and cover against a Colorado club in utter freefall. He reminded listeners the Rockies own MLB's worst record and are the biggest money-burners against the spread, failing to post back-to-back wins since June 18. Saturday's starter, Blalock, drags a grotesque 12.94 ERA and 2.06 WHIP after the Padres humiliated him for 12 earned in a 21-0 beatdown. Across his last nine innings he has been tattooed for 15 hits and 15 runs. The tout argued that kind of shell-shock will linger, especially with Colorado already flirting with all-time futility due to constant defensive miscues and a lifeless offense. By contrast, the Reds are still chasing a Wild Card berth and boast superior talent on both the mound and in the lineup. Given the motivational gap, pitching mismatch, and Colorado’s season-long bankroll destruction, he labeled Cincinnati the clear side pick.

Brad Francis recommended laying the run and a half with Cincinnati even at a juicy price. He expects a revenge spot after Colorado’s upset on Friday, noting the Rockies have lost five straight following a win. The pitching matchup tilts heavily toward the Reds: Bradley Blalock surrendered about a dozen runs in his previous start versus San Diego, giving Francis confidence Cincinnati can win by multiple runs. Given both the motivational angle and the clear pitching edge, he is comfortable paying the extra juice on the run line.

It's The Final Round said Elly De La Cruz is a must-play for a simple “record a hit” prop and even a separate walk prop against Rockies call-up Bradley Blaylock. Blaylock was shelled by Cincinnati earlier this season (7 hits, 6 ER in 4 IP) and is surrendering a .415 average to left-handed hitters. De La Cruz, a switch-hitter who is far more dangerous from the left side, went 2-for-2 off Blaylock in that prior meeting. He is scorching right now, batting .364 with eight hits, three RBI, and three runs over the past week, and he piled up four walks plus a triple last night because Colorado kept pitching around him. If he’s walked again he has elite stolen-base upside, adding extra outs for total bases or fantasy scoring. The tout expects the Rockies to remain terrified of him but still believes at least one official at-bat turns into a hit, making both the single-hit prop and a 1+ walk prop strong plus-EV looks.

Chris Welsh called Andrew Abbott a must-start in all matchups after another strong outing versus Miami. Abbott owns a 2.00 ERA and an 8-1 record, driven by a hammer curve that opponents are hitting under .150 and a 32% CSW rate. Welsh pointed out the rookie has also trimmed his walk rate to 6% over his last five turns and now has seven quality starts in his past eight appearances. Asked whether to sit him against the Marlins, Welsh said you "start him against everybody right now," staking Abbott as a top-30 fantasy SP moving forward.

Just A Bet Outside said Chase Burns is a strong over play on his strikeout prop tonight against Colorado. The Rockies have the single-highest strike-out rate versus right-handed pitching over the past three weeks (27.9%). Burns has already piled up 15 strikeouts in just 10 big-league innings, logging outings of 8 and 7 Ks when he’s made it out of the first. His own splits back the matchup: a 33.3 % K-rate versus right-handed bats compared to 28.6 % versus lefties. Even if Cincinnati limits him to roughly 80–90 pitches, four or five innings should still be enough to clear a 5.5-or-lower line against this whiff-happy lineup.

It's The Final Round said Elly De La Cruz is a strong target for hit-based props (single hit, 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs, total bases, even a single with stolen-base upside) against German — pronounced "Ramey" in the clip — Marquez on Friday. The tout highlighted that Marquez owns a .324 opponents’ batting average in road starts this season and is surrendering a .312 clip to left-handed hitters. De La Cruz will bat from his preferred left-handed side where he is hitting .295 on the year. Momentum is in his favor: back-to-back multi-hit nights and a .346/.393/.500 line (nine hits, five RBIs, four runs) over the last seven days. He has produced at least one hit in every career game versus the Rockies, many of them multi-hit efforts. Given the soft matchup, platoon edge, recent form, and historically good production versus Colorado, the tout recommended leveraging De La Cruz in most hit-related betting markets Friday.

Cash Out Sports Picks took Cincinnati on the moneyline. The Reds feast on right-handed pitching and get Cal Quantrill, who has surrendered eight runs across his last three road outings and six runs in two recent starts versus Cincinnati. Nick Lodolo has allowed only five runs across his last three starts (four runs in his last three at GABP). With Miami hitting under .220 to close June and struggling against lefties, the Reds’ superior power potential tips the scales.

Perrault is laying ‑1.5 runs with Cincinnati at +125 behind Nick Lodolo. He emphasized the Marlins’ season-long struggles against left-handed pitching and pointed to Lodolo’s recent home form: wins over San Diego, the Yankees and the Twins with a combined 6 ER across those three outings. Cincinnati has covered the run line in both of its victories over Miami this year and just snapped a four-game skid with a 7-2 win Wednesday. Cal Quantrill counters for the Fish, and while Miami has won his last four starts, Quantrill hasn’t worked beyond 5.0 IP in any of them and has allowed 2+ runs each time. Perrault expects the Reds’ lineup to force an early bullpen game and trusts Lodolo’s strikeout-heavy profile (9.8 K/9) to quiet a Miami offense that ranks near the bottom of MLB in OPS versus southpaws. He labeled the plus-money run-line as his third full-unit wager.

Dylan Rockford fired on the Reds moneyline at –120, projecting Cincinnati as a –180 favorite with Andrew Abbott on the hill. Abbott owns a 2.73 ERA and 27% K-rate at Great American Ball Park, while Miami ranks bottom-5 in wRC+ versus lefties. Sandy Alcantara’s road ERA has ballooned to 9.95 after surrendering 12 runs on 15 hits in his last two starts, and his four-seam is being torched for a .618 SLG away from LoanDepot Park. Rockford noted that Cincinnati’s three-game skid came against top-10 offenses and views this as a "get-right" spot, especially with the Fish posting a .283 OBP on the road. He recommends laying up to –140 before the market corrects.

Eric Lindquist earmarked TJ Friedl as his favorite long-shot home-run prop for Tuesday’s Marlins–Reds game. Lindquist explained that Miami’s highly-touted righty Yuri Perez is still searching for his 2023 form; Perez’s strikeout rate has dipped to 22.6 % while his walk rate has spiked to 11.8 %. More importantly for a Great American Ball Park matchup, Perez is giving up a 25.9-degree average launch angle that screams fly-ball trouble outside of cavernous LoanDepot Park. Friedl rarely whiffs (just 14.4 % K-rate last season) and sits atop the order, so he’ll maximize plate appearances and should put balls in play when Perez inevitably challenges him. Even with only a 31 % hard-hit rate, Friedl has already cleared the fence eight times thanks to elite contact efficiency. Lindquist likes attacking the large plus-money number on a Friedl homer and notes it pairs well with over 1.5 total-bases escalators for those who prefer a little safety.

Eric Lindquist targeted Austin Hays to strike out two or more times, noting Hays’ 28% K-rate against right-handed pitching and his propensity to chase breaking balls below the zone. Miami’s bullpen, which Lindquist highlighted for a 26% collective strikeout rate, amplifies the upside because Hays is likely to face multiple high-leverage relievers with plus swing-and-miss stuff after Jansen Junk exits. Lindquist paired Hays with fellow whiff-happy teammate Tyler Stevenson in the same market, emphasizing that books are still mis-pricing individual batter strikeout props because few bettors attack them. He framed it as a niche angle with consistent closing line value, especially in spacious loanDepot Park where contact turns into outs rather than hits.

B Wade projected Brady Singer to allow fewer than 5.5 hits against Miami. Singer has stayed under that mark in 11 of 17 starts (65%). Overall he’s surrendering only 4.7 hits per outing, but at Kauffman Stadium that number drops to 3.6. The right-hander has exceeded 5.5 hits at home just twice all season. Wade also noted Singer’s recent history versus the Marlins: five hits allowed last year and just four in April’s meeting. Given Miami’s stagnant offense and Singer’s pronounced home/road split, Wade likes the under on 5.5 hits allowed.

B Wade targeted Elly De La Cruz over 5.5 fantasy points, noting the rookie has eclipsed that mark in 14 of his last 20 games and seven of nine career contests versus Philadelphia. Even against ace Ranger Suarez on Saturday, Elly produced two hits and cleared the number. While he is only 1-for-5 lifetime off Zack Wheeler, De La Cruz is raking against right-handed pitching with a .298 average compared to .279 overall. His blend of speed, power, and on-base skills has produced a 70% hit rate over the last 20 games, and Wade expects him to stay hot against a Phillies bullpen that has been worked hard this series.

The analyst took the Reds moneyline despite facing Ranger Suarez. Suarez owns a sparkling 2.00 ERA, but Philadelphia has dropped three of his last six starts due to inconsistent run support. Cincinnati is 7-3 over its last ten and Nick Lodolo has been superb on the road with a 2.31 ERA and .208 opponents’ average across 46.2 innings. The Reds have been profitable in recent series while the Phillies’ bats have cooled, making Cincinnati a live dog.

B Wade advised taking Matt McLain under 1.5 total bases. McLain owns just a .211 batting average overall and an even worse .206 mark against left-handed pitching. In 27 games that began with a left-handed starter he has produced multiple bases only six times, a 22% success rate that translates to a 78% hit rate on the under. He has never faced Ranger Suarez, but Wade expects Suarez’s current shutdown run to continue, further suppressing McLain’s chances to reach two bases. The play is correlated with Wade’s Suarez over-outs prop, banking on a quiet night for Cincinnati’s infielder.

Eric Pathy said the Cincinnati Reds are an automatic wager on July 5th under his long-standing dog-to-dog system. The rule: when a team wins outright as an underdog and is listed at an even longer price the very next day, you blindly back them unless new information emerges. Cincinnati is 27-22 this season when priced as a dog, generating a healthy profit. They cashed at +129 on July 4th in a 9-6 win, and books reopened them at +145 ("plus forty-five cents") for July 5th while their opponent remains, in Pathy’s words, "a shit favorite." With that historical underdog record, the immediate rematch spot, and a fatter price, Pathy called the Reds his complimentary "system play" and advised bettors to fire on the moneyline.

B Wade took Andrew Abbott under 5.5 hits allowed. Abbott has eclipsed that mark only four times in 14 starts, and every over came at Great American Ball Park. On the road he’s 6-for-6 to the under, surrendering just 3.0 hits per outing. Versus the Phillies specifically he’s given up a combined five hits across two career starts, both last season when Philadelphia’s lineup looked almost identical. Wade added that the Phillies’ offense has been "hit or miss" lately, reinforcing his expectation that Abbott keeps them to five or fewer knocks Friday.

B Wade said to smash the over on 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI for Elly De La Cruz. De La Cruz has cashed this number in 13 of his last 19 games and eight of his last 10. The big driver is his sudden success against left-handed pitching: he has cleared in seven straight starts versus southpaws despite a season-long .236 average against them (vs .275 overall). Wade pointed out that he "must have changed something" because the recent sample dramatically outperforms that split. Friday he draws lefty Jesus Luzardo, whom Wade called "probably the worst starter in the Phillies rotation" with a 4-plus ERA and 1.40+ WHIP. Given the matchup, the Reds’ hitter-friendly park, and De La Cruz’s current form, Wade expects at least two combined counting stats and labeled the prop a core piece of his Friday card.

Smith took a more aggressive stance, grabbing Cincinnati on the first-five line with Andrew Abbott on the mound. The rookie left-hander has given up ONE combined run across his last four road starts and has held opponents to one earned or fewer in 12 of 14 overall. That dominance offsets Cincinnati’s season-long issues versus lefties, and betting only the first five removes a suspect Reds bullpen from the equation. Smith expects Abbott’s fastball-change combo to neutralize a Phillies lineup that still shuffles pieces around Harper and has struggled for consistency. With Luzardo also in good form, he anticipates a low-scoring first half but trusts Abbott slightly more, making the Reds first-five moneyline his preferred angle.

Kenny G said the best bet on the July 4th slate is taking the Reds at +140 in Philadelphia. He trusts Andrew Abbott (7-1, 1.79 ERA) to neutralize a Phillies lineup that has managed only 5, 4, 4, 2, and 1 runs in its last five games despite ranking 7th in batting average overall. Abbott’s lone blemish—five innings of one-run ball against San Diego—was spoiled by Cincinnati’s 4.11 bullpen, yet Kenny argues that liability is offset because the Phillies’ relief corps is even worse (4.39 ERA, one of the league’s most unreliable units). With both offenses inconsistent and neither bullpen inspiring confidence, Kenny prefers the team getting plus money behind the clearly superior starter, calling Cincinnati a strong candidate for his “dog of the day.”

The tout grabbed Cincinnati as a plus-money underdog behind breakout lefty Andrew Abbott. The Reds have cashed six of his last eight starts, and Abbott himself is 4-0 with a microscopic 1.42 ERA on the road. Philadelphia counters with Jesus Luzardo, and the Phils have won only two of his last five outings. Despite Philadelphia’s 28-15 home mark, the value lies with the hotter pitcher and a Reds club that has been the better bet all season.

Kenny G said Cincinnati is the side at –105 because Richard Fitz just is not getting it done. Fitz owns an 0-3 record with a 4.68 ERA and Boston is 0-5 in his five starts. Even his ‘good’ outing—four innings, two earned versus the Angels—didn’t impress Kenny. By contrast Brady Singer is 7-6 with a 4.31 ERA, and outside of giving up four earned to the Yankees has thrown "really, really well" in every recent appearance. The Red Sox bullpen (3.59 ERA) is solid, but Kenny noted Cincinnati’s sticks, led by a surging Elly De La Cruz, still rank 10th in runs and can punish weak starters. Boston’s 13-run outburst in Game 1 feels like an outlier to him; he expects their middling offense to cool quickly. Road/park data back the call—Cincinnati is 21-19-1 to the under away from home while Boston is 23-17-2 to the under at Fenway—showing low-scoring Reds wins are common. Kenny trusts Singer to bounce back, doubts Fitz can keep the ball in the yard, and labeled Reds ML the clear value play.

Malcom Bamford is playing Cincinnati first-five moneyline at Fenway. Brady Singer has settled down with a 3.67 ERA across five June starts and has held opponents to two or fewer runs in four straight road outings. Dick Fitz’s two career Fenway efforts have been disasters: seven total innings, 10 hits, eight earned, five walks, three homers. Bamford respects Fitz’s upside but wants to fade him until he proves he can handle the Green Monster backdrop. Boston’s lineup has scored three or fewer in six of its last ten, while the Reds have been profitable as underdogs behind young arms. He projects Cincinnati to lead through five and is willing to lay a small price or take plus money depending on the book.

Just A Bet Outside grabbed the Reds team total over 2.5 runs as the first leg of his alt-team-total parlay. Cincinnati has plated at least three runs in eight of the past 10 games and is averaging 5.0 runs per contest in its last 10 road dates. Over the previous three weeks the lineup sits top-10 in batting average versus right-handers. Richard “Dick” Fitz offers the perfect punching bag: seven homers allowed in just 25 innings and three-plus runs surrendered in both of his Fenway starts. Tuesday’s forecast—90 degrees with a 10-mph breeze blowing out—plus a game total of 10 underscores the hitting environment. With only three runs needed, the tout labeled the over 2.5 “a lay-up.”

B Wade is betting Brady Singer Over 6.5 Hits Allowed at +140 in Fenway Park. Singer has cleared this number in 50% of his road starts (4 of 8) but in none of his eight home outings. Boston’s lineup just exploded for 13 runs, including seven in the first inning, and hammered Singer for big hit totals in both 2024 meetings—two of his worst outings last year. Wade expects the Red Sox, now in peak form, to tag him for seven or more knocks again.

Just A Bet Outside said Chase Burns is worth an over bet on his strikeout prop in Fenway. The rookie fanned the first five hitters he ever faced and finished his MLB debut with 8 Ks on 81 pitches against the Yankees. Across four minor-league seasons he carried an eye-popping 89 strikeouts in 66 innings with only 13 walks, reinforcing that the whiffs are real. Boston has the fourth-highest strikeout rate versus right-handed pitching over the past three weeks (25.7%), so the host expects plenty of swing-and-miss opportunities even in a tough park. The tout acknowledged small-sample risk—this is only start No. 2—but believes the matchup, Burns’s pitch count, and his lifelong bat-missing profile justify an aggressive stance on the K ladder.

Reichel tagged the Reds moneyline at roughly +160 as his underdog of the day. He acknowledged Garrett Crochet’s stellar form but argued Boston has no business laying –190 when its offense "cannot hit to save their lives" and its bullpen remains a dumpster fire. Cincinnati, meanwhile, has quietly taken recent series from the Padres and Yankees and is playing with confidence. Reichel believes that if Crochet exits early—something he expects given Crochet’s workload management—the game shifts to a lopsided relief matchup the Reds can steal late. With Boston floundering at the plate and overpriced, he sees solid value backing Cincinnati at plus money.

Chris Ruffolo recommended taking the Cincinnati Reds on the +1.5 run line and sprinkling the moneyline against Boston on June 30, 2025. He cited several edges: Boston’s lineup has cratered versus right-handed pitching over the last two weeks (.201 AVG – 3rd worst in MLB, bottom-5 OPS, bottom-10 ISO, .241 BABIP – 2nd worst, 25.1% strikeout rate – top-5). Rookie right-hander Chase Burns, whose fastball routinely touches triple digits, just struck out eight Yankees over five solid innings in his debut (3 ER, 6 H). Conversely, Boston has dropped seven of its last eight and is only 3-7 in the last ten, while starter Garrett Crochet has been shakier at Fenway than on the road. Ruffolo thinks that price disparity makes the Red Sox overvalued and the safer play is grabbing the extra run with Cincinnati, plus a small moneyline stab for upside.

Razzle likes the plus-money over on Chase Burns’ 5.5 strike-out prop and is comfortable pairing him with Crochet in the same DFS lineup. Burns fanned the first five Yankees he faced in his debut and finished with a 34 % CSW. With Boston missing Rafael Devers and posting a middling 23 % K-rate versus righties this month, Razzle sees room for six to eight punch-outs at a bargain $6.3K salary.

Kenny G recommended Cincinnati at –135, citing multiple matchup edges. Nick Lodolo owns a 3.63 ERA and the Reds are 3-1 in his last four outings, including a four-plus inning, one-run showing against the Yankees. San Diego counters with rookie Stephen Kolek (3.95 ERA) but has dropped all three of his recent starts, and the Friars’ bats remain an anchor—22nd in runs and 24th in slugging while posting 6-1-1-4-6-3 runs their past six. Kenny acknowledged the Reds’ bullpen has slipped to a 4.07 ERA yet reminded listeners it was top-five most of the season and still flashes high-leverage upside. Cincinnati’s lineup has climbed to 11th in runs as Elly De La Cruz ignites the offense, giving them the punch San Diego lacks. With both clubs trending 23+ unders in their respective home/road splits, Kenny leaned that way on the total but made Reds ML his primary play.

Martin wants the Reds as a barking home dog with Nick Lodolo on the mound. The 27-year-old lefty sports an 80-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio and is coming off impressive back-to-back starts versus the Twins and Yankees. Opposing starter Adam Collick has surrendered 11 earned runs and 18 hits over his last 14 innings (three starts), so Martin questions his ability to navigate Great American Ball Park. With Lodolo’s strikeout stuff and Cincinnati’s plus-price, Martin is eager to grab the Reds moneyline.

Reichel leaned to the under 9.5/10 despite the hitter-friendly park. Andrew Abbott is 7-1 with a 1.79 ERA and has allowed only two earned runs in his last three starts. Padres starter Adrian Vasquez has a 3.60 ERA and just six earned runs over his last four starts. With neutral wind conditions, Reichel believes both lineups are too inconsistent to justify a double-digit total and sees a tight, lower-scoring game as the value side.

Kenny G said the best angle on Padres-Reds is the under 9.5, even in Great American Ball Park. He raved about Andrew Abbott’s year—1.98 ERA over his last four outings and fresh off seven innings of one-run ball versus St. Louis—and noted that Padres rookie Randy Vasquez has quietly logged a 3.56 xERA while holding opponents to a .289 wOBA outside of Petco. Both clubs trend to the under in these splits (San Diego 22-18-1 under on the road, Cincinnati 23-15-2 under at home). The Reds’ bullpen ERA sits at 3.98 but has flashed top-10 form for long stretches, and the Padres’ offense has cooled to 3.5 runs per game over its last six. With both starters in form and two pens that can protect a lead, Kenny expects offense to be at a premium and locked in the under. He also sprinkled Reds –155, citing Cincinnati’s top-10 rankings in runs and slugging and the leap Elly De La Cruz has taken in June.

Mark took Padres team total Under 4.5 (-130) against rookie ace Andrew Abbott. Abbott is 7-1 with a 1.79 ERA and 29% K-rate, and opponents have not exceeded four runs in eight of his nine starts. San Diego has failed to eclipse 4.5 runs in three straight and ranks 24th in wRC+ versus lefties this month. While Great American Ball Park inflates home-run potential, Abbott’s 53% ground-ball rate helps mitigate the park factor.

Eric Pathi advised taking the Cincinnati Reds at +180 on the moneyline for the 6/25/25 matchup against the visiting New York Yankees. Pathi leaned on two long-time betting angles: first, a home underdog that has already exceeded expectations in the series versus a road favorite that has disappointed; second, the public narrative that a superior team 'cannot lose three in a row.' After the Reds claimed the first two games (including a 5-4 win the night before), bookmakers still pushed the Yankees to a steep –220. Pathi argued that laying –220 on any MLB side is a negative-EV bet and that the market overreacts to starting-pitcher mismatches that historically have little impact on big moneylines. He therefore labeled the Reds +180 as both a value play and a 'complementary selection' for bettors following his Dime Club card.

Kenny G circled two angles in Yankees–Reds: the Under 9.5 and Cincinnati’s +180 moneyline. He expects a pitcher’s duel with Max Fried (9-2, 2.05 ERA) opposing Brady Singer, who has strung together three strong outings and now sits at 4.13. New York’s bats have cooled off badly, scoring 4-1-4-9-3-7-2-0-0 the last nine games, while the Reds are steady but unspectacular (five, six, four runs in their last three). Both pens are adequate—Yankees 3.54 ERA, Reds 4.03—and each club trends under in its current venue. Given that backdrop, Kenny views laying –220 with a slumping Yankee lineup as lunacy and tagged the surging Reds (20-17 at home, three-game win streak) as a potential Dog of the Day. He plans to sprinkle the +180 moneyline and pair it with the under, expecting a tight, low-scoring Cincinnati upset.

Kenny G advised grabbing Cincinnati at +135 because the market is still pricing the Yankees like an elite offense even though they have flat-lined for two full weeks. New York has scored 1, 6, 9, 3, 7, 2, 0, 0 and 0 runs in its last nine contests and Carlos Rodon’s personal slump (Yanks just 1-2 his last three starts, both losses coming to Boston) doesn’t help. Rodon’s ERA has crept above 3.00 and his fastball command has wavered, producing hard-hit rates north of 40% in June. Kenny also pointed to a Yankees bullpen sliding toward league average with a 3.48 ERA. On the flip side, the Reds quietly rank 11th in runs and 15th in OBP thanks to a scorching Elly De La Cruz, and send 22-year-old flamethrower Chase Burns to the hill for his debut. While acknowledging rookie volatility, Kenny likes that Burns’ triple-digit heater plays against a slumping lineup and that Cincinnati’s pen (4.03 ERA but usually top-10) gives them depth. With New York just 21-16 on the road and the Reds 20-17 at home, he sees the plus-money price as "very, very good value" and expects the Bronx Bombers’ funk to continue.

Eric Pathi said to fire on the Reds at +135 because his underdog system triggered for the second straight day. He reminded viewers that New York is one of the worst road favorites in baseball—backers are down units every time they lay chalk with the Yankees away from the Bronx—while Cincinnati just cashed 6-1 in the same spot last night. Pathi dismissed starting-pitcher worries, arguing the opening line is a "false" number built on arms that rarely last more than five innings and noting that bullpens dictate the remaining 40 percent of outcomes, which is why MLB dogs still win roughly 40 percent of all games. With the Reds again catching plus money and the Yankees laying ‑165 on the highway, Pathi advised bettors to “auto-bet” Cincinnati until the market adjusts.

Building a Monday money-line parlay, JDBetsHQ locked in Cincinnati as the second leg (Atlanta being the first). He trusts Nick Lodolo to outduel Wynans and sees every edge lining up: Yankees rank dead last in runs per game (2.9) over their past ten and have the league’s worst three-game shutout stretch this season, while Cincinnati sits at a steady 5.0 runs at home. The Reds are 5-5 in that span but profile as "just mid" according to JD—far better than the ice-cold Yankees. With their bullpen rested and home-field advantage, he believes the modest juice attached to Cincinnati is a bargain and a perfect anchor for a three-team ML ticket.

JDBetsHQ circled Cincinnati’s team-total over 4.5 runs at ‑118. He wants to fade Yankees emergency starter Allen Wynans, who owns a 15.26 ERA in his brief big-league career (13 earned runs over seven innings last season). Wynans is making his season debut on the road, and JD routinely "fades major-league or season debuts," especially when the arm was getting shelled in the minors. The Reds are averaging close to five runs per home game and just posted nine and six-run outings last week. Meanwhile the Yankees’ offense has flat-lined, averaging only 2.9 runs over their last ten games and enduring a 30-plus inning scoreless drought. Great American Ballpark offers hitter-friendly dimensions even with a mild four-mph wind blowing in, and JD expects Cincinnati’s right-heavy lineup (Goldschmidt, Steer, De La Cruz) to punish Wynans early, cashing the five-run mark regardless of what New York does.

Razzle said Nick Lodolo is still worth sprinkling into large-field tournaments even though Great American Ball Park murders pitchers. Lodolo’s strikeout ceiling remains intact – the Yankees have whiffed a tick over nine times per game during the last week and Aaron Judge’s slump is prolonging those K’s. The downside is obvious: Lodolo’s HR/9 explodes at home and his strikeout rate dips several points in Cincinnati. Books opened his K-prop at 5.5 with plus money on the over, highlighting both volatility and upside. Razzle will roster him only in GPP builds that can survive a blow-up but benefit massively from a double-digit strikeout game.

Kenny G advised taking Cincinnati at +105, calling the Reds his potential "dog of the day." He likes the matchup because Nick Lodolo, a left-hander with a 3.71 ERA and fresh off a six-inning, two-run outing in a rain-shortened win over Minnesota, opposes Allen Wyans, a 29-year-old minor-leaguer making his first big-league start for a slumping Yankees squad. Kenny emphasized that New York's lineup is banged up and has been "destroyed" recently by Boston and the Angels, while Cincinnati’s bats rank 10th in runs and 12th in slugging. He also trusts a Reds bullpen that, despite a recent hiccup, still carries a 4.10 ERA—close to league average—versus a Yankees unit forced to shoulder extra innings because starters keep getting hurt. With the Reds 20-17 at home and the Yankees just 19-16-2 to the under on the road, Kenny sees value in a home underdog that can score and has the clearly better starting pitcher.

For the second parlay leg, Just A Bet Outside took Cincinnati’s team total over 2.5 runs. The Reds have plated at least three in eight of their past ten, and they now get to hit in Great American Ball Park with triple-digit temperatures and a slight breeze carrying to the seats—"absolute elite hitting conditions" in his words. Opposing them is rookie right-hander Wymans, making his first big-league start after mediocre minor-league numbers and a rough 2023 cameo. The tout sees no evidence the youngster can handle Cincinnati’s lefty-heavy lineup in a sauna-like environment and expects the home side to cash the over long before the middle-relief brigade arrives.

Eric Lindquist advised attacking Nick Lodolo’s strikeout ladder when the Reds host the Yankees at Great American Ball Park. Lindquist noted that Lodolo’s whiff rate spikes against right-handed hitters (career 32% K rate vs RHB) and the Yankees will likely run out seven to eight righties now that Jasson Dominguez and Austin Wells lose their platoon advantage against the southpaw. He added that Great American amplifies power but does nothing to suppress strikeouts, and facing a New York roster that is top-10 in strikeout percentage versus left-handed pitching (24.8%) gives Lodolo “extra” K upside. Lindquist also mentioned that left-handed bats such as Dominguez and Jazz Chisholm are far less dangerous from the right side, further clearing the path for Lodolo to clear both his posted 6.5 strikeout prop and the alt 8+ ladder number that should be offered at plus money.

Eric Pathi advised betting the Cincinnati Reds at +105 as short home underdogs against the Yankees on Monday’s limited travel-day slate. Pathi pointed out that Cincinnati has thrived in this role, going 23-19 as underdogs this season, while New York has quietly bled money as road favorites—down two units despite a strong overall record of 43-26 when favored. He framed the game as a classic buy-low/sell-high spot: a home team exceeding market expectations versus a public juggernaut that underdelivers away from the Bronx. With no major pitching or lineup caveats mentioned and few alternative games to choose from, Pathi labeled the Reds his complimentary best bet for the night.

Bettor Mark said Cincinnati is the only side he wants in Sunday’s Abbott-Mikolas matchup, laying the modest –110. He called Andrew Abbott one of his "darling" prop targets all season and trusts the rookie’s 27% strike-out rate and 1.10 WHIP to neutralize a Cardinals lineup that owns just a .295 wOBA against lefties. Mark sees Miles Mikolas’ 4.73 xERA and plummeting ground-ball rate (down nine points from last year) giving Reds bats the spark they need to "come alive" after two quiet nights. With Great American Ball Park’s homer-friendly backdrop and Cincinnati’s superior bullpen FIP (3.61 vs STL’s 4.19) he expects the Reds to take the late-inning coin-flip spots and cash the money line.

Romanelli took Cincinnati outright, noting that the Reds have cashed four of Andrew Abbott’s last five starts and he’s become one of the most profitable southpaws in baseball. Although St. Louis owns decent recent splits versus lefties, Abbott limited damage his last time out despite allowing eight hits—only one of the five runs charged was earned. Meanwhile, Ron remains skeptical of Miles Mikolas, labeling him one of his least-trusted Cardinal starters. Cincinnati’s bats are crushing right-handed pitching, a matchup he expects to decide the game.