Cincinnati Reds

Guy Boston recommends betting Cincinnati Reds on the first five innings moneyline today against Milwaukee to avoid bullpen uncertainties. He emphasizes Milwaukee's bullpen, which has been shaky and heavily taxed recently, compared to Cincinnati's fresher relief arms. This strategy looks wiser to him considering volatility in late-game pitching, preferring the shorter, safer first-five innings wager.

Guy Boston sees betting value playing under 1.5 hits, runs and RBIs for Spencer Steer today due to Steer's struggles against left-handed pitching. Although he's somewhat reluctant due to Nestor Cortes's disastrous first start (5 home runs allowed), he still identifies Steer's splits against lefties as highly problematic enough to lean unders here despite Cortes' recent struggles.

Guy Boston advised betting against Nick Lodolo again today, highlighting his consistently poor pitching numbers despite a tolerable batting average allowed (.231). Lodolo struggled significantly last season with a concerning 4.76 ERA and a .290 BABIP, reflecting frequent hard contact allowed. He has already surrendered at least two runs once this season against the Giants and exhibited long-term patterns of vulnerability, having a notably poor finish to last season. Although the Brewers offense is neither elite nor terrible against left-handed pitching, sitting about league-average last year and again in early 2025, Guy Boston noted they are capable enough offensively to capitalize against Lodolo's persistent shortcomings. Despite the prop's slightly unfavorable juice (-150), Guy Boston sees clear metrics supporting the Brewers scoring at least two runs on Lodolo and considers this a highly actionable wager.

Guy Boston backs Nick Lodolo to surrender at least 2 earned runs against the Brewers, pointing to Lodolo's consistent struggles last season. Lodolo exceeded this earned run total in 71% of his outings last year and in his only game so far in 2025 against the Giants. He notably ended last year on a 10-game streak surpassing this line, averaging 2.9 earned runs allowed per start in 2024. His one start last season against Milwaukee resulted in him allowing 3 earned runs. While the Brewers were only middle-of-the-road against left-handed pitchers last season and this year, Lodolo's consistently poor performances make Guy Boston confident in this play, even at the higher juice of -150 odds.

Zach Thompson endorsed Nick Lodolo as a strong MLB DFS pitching play at Milwaukee. In his opening game this season, Lodolo pitched well (six innings, two earned runs), but curiously recorded only one strikeout, far below his impressive rates from last year (9.5 K/9) and spring (9.8 K/9). Thompson sees this as a clear opportunity for strikeout regression, especially given Lodolo's superior road splits from last year (3.56 ERA, 3.23 FIP). The Brewers offer a fine matchup for strikeout upside, making Lodolo particularly appealing in the DFS slate.

Michael Savio projects Reds pitcher Nick Lodolo to have a tough game tonight against the Brewers. Milwaukee’s lineup is heating up, scoring eight times in their last two games following a slow start. Lodolo struggled badly in his most recent start at Milwaukee last August, allowing three runs over 5 1/3 innings. With Milwaukee's Jackson Chourio and the Brewers lineup clicking, Savio expects Lodolo's struggles at American Family Field to continue tonight.

Chris Mitchell tagged Cincinnati Reds infielder Matt McLain as an optimal sell-high candidate, noting McLain is currently outperforming expectations dramatically—ranking 11th overall on Yahoo following a hot start including three homers and a .313 batting average. Mitchell believes McLain was already heavily over ranked prior to the season (at #80 ahead of more established players like Jake Burger, Christian Walker, Willy Adames, and Mark Vientos), and considers his current power pace highly unrealistic. Mitchell recommended trading McLain now, targeting steadier performers with better track records or speed-driven hitters like Xavier Edwards or Brice Turang before inevitable regression hits.

Data Skrive's model sees value in the road underdog Cincinnati Reds (-104 money line) against the Brewers. Each team is off to a shaky 2-4 start, but the computer modeling suggests the Reds are in position to pull out a win here. With the total set at 7.5, the projections indicate a strong likelihood this game also goes 'Over', benefiting bettors who expect a bit more offense at American Family Field.

Eric Lindquist identified the Cincinnati Reds moneyline (-105) as a potential value bet, emphasizing a bounce-back opportunity for pitcher Nick Lodolo. Despite Lodolo only recording one strikeout in six innings in his debut, Lindquist expects significant positive regression, emphasizing Lodolo's considerable strikeout upside and a curveball he compares to Chris Sale's signature pitch. Although Milwaukee's home park isn't typically pitcher-friendly, Lindquist believes Lodolo's underlying strikeout profile makes the Reds a strong play, especially if the line shifts into plus money by game time.

Peter Dewey advised backing the Cincinnati Reds on the moneyline against the Milwaukee Brewers due to the strong pitching matchup advantage. He emphasized Reds starter Nick Lodolo's quality first start, giving up just two runs over six innings against the Giants. He contrasted this with Brewers starter Nestor Cortes, who struggled badly in his initial outing, surrendering eight runs on six hits, five walks, and allowing five home runs in just two innings against the Yankees. Cortes's poor form continues a worrying trend from previous seasons, including posting a 4.97 ERA in 2023, and despite improving slightly to 3.77 in 2024, allowing 24 homers. Dewey feels this pitching edge makes Cincinnati a value as slight moneyline underdogs.

Scott Reichel sees clear betting value in backing the Reds as a small underdog against Milwaukee due to the significant pitching advantage of Nick Lodolo over Nestor Cortes. Reichel highlighted Cortes' shockingly bad first outing this season, giving up three home runs immediately against the Yankees and resulting in a 36.00 ERA. He noted Cortes' previous struggles dating back to the end of last season, indicating possible longer-term deterioration. By contrast, he described Lodolo as the considerably superior pitcher in the matchup. Although acknowledging Cincinnati's recent scoring drought, Reichel strongly believes backing Lodolo at approximately even-money is worthwhile against a severely struggling Cortes, and sees the Reds as well-positioned to exploit this pitching mismatch.

Kyle Purviance recommends betting the over on Nick Lodolo's strikeouts due to the Brewers' extremely high strikeout tendencies so far. Despite playing just six games, Milwaukee already has 68 team strikeouts, second-most in MLB and approaching the Cubs who played three more games. Against left-handed pitching specifically, they have struck out 40 times in 123 at-bats, hitting just .220 with a slugging percentage of .309 and only two home runs. Purviance expects the strikeout prop for Lodolo at around 5.5 or 6.5, lower than usual due to Lodolo's recent rough outing, thereby seeing added value in going over against this favorable Brewers matchup.

Kyle Purviance favors betting the Reds first five innings run line at +120, driven by pitching advantage with Nick Lodolo over Nestor Cortez. Last time out, Lodolo showed stronger form compared to Cortez, who allowed three consecutive home runs. While cautious about full-game bets due to the Reds' weak bullpen compared to Milwaukee's elite relievers, Purviance expects Cincinnati to establish an early lead. He acknowledges potential concerns about the Reds hitting poorly against lefties in limited samples, but still favors Cincinnati's early batting advantage over struggling Nestor Cortez, also emphasizing the Brewers' early offensive struggles versus left-handed pitching.

Bettor Mark sees great value in betting the Reds on the money line (+100) against the Brewers. He emphasized the quality pitching matchup with Nick Lodolo starting, coupled with distrust in Milwaukee's bats and pitching staff. After Cincinnati failed to score despite numerous scoring chances in a shutout loss the day prior, Mark expects them to be particularly motivated offensively. He views the even-money odds as excellent betting value in this divisional matchup scenario.

Matt Perrault recommended backing Nick Lodolo and the Reds on the money line against the Brewers. He noted Lodolo had a solid first outing, going 6 innings allowing just 2 earned runs and 5 hits. Meanwhile, Brewers pitcher Nestor Cortez struggled mightily in his opener, getting shelled for 8 earned runs and 5 home runs in just two innings vs the Yankees. Perrault anticipates Cortez may again struggle, providing an ideal spot for Cincinnati's offense to wake up after back-to-back shutouts. He considers Lodolo a pitcher he trusted repeatedly last season and expects that to continue in a pitching matchup with a clear advantage for the Reds.

JD Bets likes the Reds moneyline primarily due to Hunter Greene's strong numbers and favorable matchup against Texas. Greene consistently pitched deep into games last season, averaging 5.2 innings per start, and managed to stay under 2.5 earned runs allowed in most outings. He posted good results controlling hits and avoiding excessive damage. JD notes Texas was average with strikeouts and believes Texas won't significantly score off Greene. On the flip side, Jack Leiter of Texas had a rough 2024 season, allowing at least three earned runs in all but one appearance. Given Leiter's struggles against right-handed hitters, JD expects Cincinnati's offense to have success, leading to a Reds victory and making the moneyline at minus 130 a solid play.

Bettor Mark is confidently backing the Cincinnati Reds on the money line against the Texas Rangers, highlighting Hunter Greene as a primary reason. Greene had an unspectacular first outing (no decision, 3.60 ERA) but Mark trusts his talent, especially playing at home at Great American Ballpark, a hitter-friendly park. Mark acknowledges Rangers pitcher Jack Leiter's strong first performance but favors Greene and the Reds, citing betting splits that support this selection, with Reds seeing 93% of the money despite only 56% of the bets, indicating sharp bettors backing Cincinnati as well.

Chris Welsh advised fantasy managers to hold onto Christian Encarnacion-Strand, highlighting recent developments in his lineup positioning, batting cleanup directly behind Elly De La Cruz. Welsh believes this positional uptick significantly improves Encarnacion-Strand’s fantasy outlook moving forward, amplifying his opportunities for production. He specifically recommended against dropping CES in favor of Michael Toglia, stating that Encarnacion-Strand is starting to lock in nicely and should produce strong fantasy returns.

Brian Howard identified the Reds as a valuable home underdog pick going into the matchup against the Rangers at plus 125, focusing on their recent hot hitting streak and positive energy following Brady Singer’s recent successful pitching performance. He noted the bats seemed rejuvenated and indicated they're in good form at home at hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. Howard personally favored betting the Reds given their momentum and attractive underdog price despite questions regarding the uncertainty in their starting pitching.

Brian Howard analyzed the Reds as an attractive underdog pick against Nathan Eovaldi and the Texas Rangers, citing their heavy left-handed hitting lineup that historically excels against right-handers. Howard highlighted Eovaldi—despite looking sharp in his season debut—benefited from facing a struggling Red Sox offense, thereby providing questionable evidence of his overall readiness. Howard also reminded listeners that Cincinnati swept Texas in their Texas matchup the previous season, indicating historical success against this opponent. While he expressed hesitation about Carson Spiers' questionable rotation inclusion, the favorable hitting matchup against a right-handed pitcher and recent positive form makes the Reds uniquely appealing in this spot.

JD Bets identifies fading Brady Singer's hits allowed prop as a strong play due to his steadily declining performance last season. Singer's hits allowed ballooned to an extraordinary average of 6.6 hits per game in his last ten starts, up from his season average of 5.4 hits per game. JD pointed to this increasing and unsustainable trend seen in Singer's late-year outings and strongly recommended betting the over on his hits allowed.

Guy Boston recommends backing the Reds as underdogs today, specifically praising Brady Singer's matchup against the Texas Rangers lineup. Singer relies heavily on sliders and sinkers—two offerings Texas notably struggles to hit. Additionally, his fastball, another primary pitch, aligns favorably against Texas hitters. On the other side, Texas starter Kumar Rocker leans heavily on his fastball, a pitch Cincinnati has historically feasted upon, especially at home in Great American Ballpark. Given these advantageous pitch mix conditions for Singer and the Reds' offense combined with a comfortable home environment, Guy Boston sees strong value in taking Cincinnati as an underdog today, also liking the total over (recommends buying down to 8.5 runs).

Millz Young singled out Elly De La Cruz as a bounce-back candidate after starting quietly in the first two games, taking him confidently to exceed 1.5 total bases. Millz highlighted De La Cruz's capability to get on base and steal bags, referencing past performances. He also suggested De La Cruz might even go yard in this matchup, noting that other superstars like Juan Soto and Aaron Judge have already started hitting home runs, reinforcing a broader trend of star hitters warming up early in the season.

Guy Boston recommended betting the under on Spencer Steer's 1.5 hits, runs, and RBI prop due to unfavorable pitch matchups vs Robbie Ray. Steer's strikeout rate notably increases against fastballs, Robbie Ray's primary pitch, and also faces difficulty against sliders. Boston highlighted this pitch-mix disadvantage, emphasizing that Steer doesn't profile well today despite the hitters' friendly conditions at Great American Ballpark. He acknowledged the general possibility of offense in this matchup but clearly marked Steer as an outlier likely to underperform, making the under an attractive play.

JD Bets highlighted Cincinnati's consistent struggles against left-handed pitchers, a trend he stated repeatedly caused the Reds offensive issues last season. With the Giants sending lefty Robbie Ray to the mound, JD expected the Reds' struggles at the plate to continue, identifying an excellent value opportunity backing the San Francisco Giants on the moneyline based on this key matchup.

Dan Marcus recommended stacking Reds hitters for DFS contests, citing strong home run conditions at Great American Ballpark coupled with a favorable decline in Justin Verlander's performance. Marcus noted Verlander's diminished strikeout ability (18.7% K-rate) and increased vulnerability to homers (1.5 HR/9) in 2024, suggesting Reds bats such as TJ Friedl, Matt McLain, and Elly De La Cruz as optimal selections with significant run-scoring upside at home.

Dan Marcus advised caution with Nick Lodolo as a pitching option due to historical issues at his home ballpark, Great American Ballpark. Despite having the second-best K-BB% among available pitchers, Marcus observed that Lodolo has consistently struggled with poor pitching stats historically at home, making him an attractive fade candidate despite his solid underlying metrics.

Scott Reichel advocates taking the Reds first five innings against the Giants due largely to a favorable starting pitcher matchup featuring Nicholas Lodolo against Justin Verlander. He cited Verlander's concerning recent spring training outing against Arizona (5 innings, 5 runs allowed) as a red flag, questioning whether age has finally caught up with him. Given Cincinnati's hitting-friendly ballpark potentially exacerbating Verlander's struggles, Reichel highlights Lodolo's proven talent as a safer and more attractive betting angle than backing the unreliable Reds bullpen over a full game.

Kyle Purviance bet on the Reds first five innings run line at plus 105, highlighting their favorable matchup against Justin Verlander who's lost some velocity. He strongly emphasized Giants' lineup struggles against left-handed pitching, noting this significantly favored Reds' starter Nick Lodolo. Given Cincinnati's bullpen struggles, though, he recommended only a first-five wager rather than a full-game bet. He also added historical context about Lodolo typically being sharp and high-strikeout early in seasons, further strengthening his argument.

Brian Howard enthusiastically backed Nick Lodolo's strikeout prop, mentioning aiming aggressively at around eight Ks in Lodolo's season opener. He justified it by referencing Lodolo's historically strong early-season form and elite strikeout potential. Howard argued that, after Hunter Greene's struggles, the Reds would be motivated to let Lodolo pitch deeper and minimize bullpen usage, increasing his opportunities for strikeouts against the Giants lineup. He advised monitoring the prop number closely once released and planned to tweet out his position based on price.

Although Santiago Espinal appears statistically appealing due to his favorable matchup data (300+ batting average with multiple hits historically), Final Round strongly advised caution given Espinal's relative lack of personal confidence in him and limited sustained track record of success. Final Round explicitly expressed hesitance because he does not trust Espinal, even with seemingly promising matchup numbers, recommending bettors look elsewhere due to personal skepticism.

Vaughn Dalzell identified Reds star Elly De La Cruz as a top breakout MVP candidate at +2000 odds. Dalzell focused on De La Cruz leading MLB in stolen bases with 67 last season, combined with impressive metrics of 25 homers, 76 RBIs, and 105 runs. He praised De La Cruz's elite athleticism, speed, and raw upside, and noted the player's own stated goal to improve his problematic 31% strikeout rate. If De La Cruz moderately improves his plate discipline, Dalzell argues his elite power-speed combination makes him a prime MVP candidate. Dalzell also recommended him to lead the league in stolen bases despite lower odds than last year.

Eric Lindquist tapped Matthew McLain for a compelling home run wager at extremely favorable +1000 odds versus Giants starter Logan Webb. Lindquist pointed specifically to McLain's exceptional launch angle and sweet spot metrics as ideal tools for taking advantage of Webb's high hard-hit rate (46.2%) last season despite a low average launch angle allowed. Playing in hitter-friendly Cincinnati ("Great American Small Park"), Lindquist sees substantial value especially given McLain's promotion to a top-of-the-lineup role after Jonathan India's departure, which will result in increased hitting opportunities.

Kyle Purviance suggested his interest in Hunter Greene's strikeout prop against the Giants on MLB opening day. Greene's odds of recording 8+ strikeouts are attractive at +185, and even more ambitious 9+ strikeouts are available at +360. Purviance explained his reasoning, focusing on Greene's notable improvement last season. Historically inefficient, Greene showed signs of better inning management and greater pitching efficiency late last year, allowing him to work deeper into games and significantly enhance his strikeout potential. Though Purviance tempered enthusiasm slightly with concerns over Greene's occasional control issues, he remained optimistic about the upside, especially considering the Giants' elevated strikeout rate last season. The cold weather further reinforces the possibility of lower offense, benefiting pitchers with strong strikeout stuff like Greene.

Brian Howard enthusiastically endorsed betting Elly De La Cruz's stolen base prop at +170 odds for opening day against the Giants. Howard pointed out De La Cruz enjoys significant advantages against right-handed pitchers, noting that as a switch-hitter, he's markedly more effective hitting from the left side. Howard specifically highlighted De La Cruz's offseason improvements, particularly significantly reduced strikeout rates, suggesting better contact and a higher on-base likelihood. Additionally, he explained the challenges left-handed pitchers present to base runners due to pickoff mechanics and asserted that facing a right-hander like Logan Webb greatly increases De La Cruz's stolen base opportunities. Both Howard and Kyle Purviance noted cold weather conditions might reduce offensive power output, forcing teams to manufacture runs by running, adding further value to the speed-based prop.

Ron Romanelli sees excellent betting value taking the Cincinnati Reds at +450 odds to win the NL Central division. He acknowledges the division's uncertainty and volatility, with the Brewers, Pirates, Cubs, and Reds all capable of widely varying outcomes. Romanelli highlights the Reds' potential offensive strength, contingent on staying healthy, as a factor that could carry them. Despite doubts about starting pitching, noting Hunter Greene's significant expected regression and concerns about Brady Singer's fit in hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark, as well as bullpen weaknesses, he believes Cincinnati's lineup still positions them as viable contenders. He forecasts the Reds might become buyers at the trade deadline and strongly recommends this long-shot division future instead of more evenly priced win totals.

Chris Welsh recommended betting on the Cincinnati Reds to make the playoffs at +300 odds, praising their aggressive offseason moves, strong rotation, and managerial change bringing Terry Francona's winning culture influence. Welsh highlighted star potential from Elly De La Cruz and returning injured standouts Matt McClain and Christian Encarnacion-Strand anchoring a formidable lineup. He specifically praised Hunter Greene's maturation as a true ace due to the new splitter enhancing his repertoire along with Nick Lodolo's return to form, noting bullpen reinforcement through Taylor Rogers and Graham Ashcraft. Welsh views this combination of improved pitching, strong lineup, and managerial upgrade as highly favorable for playoff contention.