Lindquist grabbed Colorado +1.5 runs at a juicy +195, noting the Rockies have remained competitive in Houston and that the Crawford Boxes give their right-handed pop a fighting chance. While Framber Valdez finally looked sharper Wednesday, his extreme ground-ball profile still leaves him vulnerable when he misses up, and Lindquist’s afternoon deep dive into pull tendencies for road lefties suggested Valdez’s advantages shrink at Minute Maid. Colorado starter Kyle Freeland isn’t involved until the next game, so Lindquist is simply betting Houston’s offense won’t create a two-run cushion often enough to justify the heavy price. At nearly 2-to-1 for a single run of insurance, the Rockies’ run line made his betting card.

Kenny G recommended sprinkling the Rockies money-line at +300, arguing that Pittsburgh should not be installed as a –380 favorite against anyone. He pointed out that Paul Skenes has looked human in three of his last four outings, including five innings of four-run ball versus these same Rockies in an 8-5 Pirates loss. Pittsburgh owns MLB’s worst offense in both runs scored and slugging, and its bullpen carries an ordinary 4.11 ERA. Colorado’s own flaws— a 16-47 road record, only one run through the first two games of this series, and a shaky bullpen— are already baked into the big number. Kenny’s take is that the market is over-reacting to name value and that the true win probability on Colorado is higher than the implied 25 %, making the dog worth a value play.

Drew Martin went back to the well with Colorado as a big underdog, arguing that –170 is far too rich for Pittsburgh without Paul Skenes. Kyle Freeland just spun 7.1 shutout innings and owns an ERA almost two full runs lower on the road than overall, a typical but still meaningful Coors split. The Pirates’ offense ranks near the bottom of MLB and 25-year-old Quinn Priester Burrows (1-4) rarely survives beyond five frames, exposing a Pirates pen Martin called shaky over the last month. He sees little offensive advantage for Pittsburgh and no pitching edge worth that price, so he’s taking the Rockies plus money.

The moment beat writers confirmed Shohei Ohtani would sit Thursday, Lindquist jumped on Colorado +1.5 at +160/+170. He argued the Dodgers’ lineup loses its top slugger and on-base threat, a massive downgrade in Coors Field where every extra bat matters. With the total still priced for a full-strength L.A. order, he believes the market overrates the Dodgers’ run-scoring ceiling. Lindquist also likes that Colorado’s bullpen has posted a 3.72 ERA since the All-Star break (seventh-best in MLB) and that their offense quietly owns a .336 home wOBA. All told, the plus-money run line in altitude without Ohtani was, in his words, an auto-bet.

Eric Lindquist said he is betting Mickey Moniak to hit a home run at any number better than +255. His confidence comes from the matchup with Brandon Pfaadt, who owns a 47.6% hard-hit rate and a 12.1% barrel rate—metrics Lindquist called "no good, terrible, awful." Moniak, whom Lindquist noted is "on another planet," is projected to bat second, giving him added plate-appearance equity against Pfaadt. Lindquist believes the combination of Pfaadt’s contact profile and Moniak’s current form makes the HR prop a strong plus-money play.

Bill Harrelson targeted the under 1.5 total bases for Warming Bernabel, calling it his favorite play of the day. Bernabel has stayed under in 8 of his last 10 and 4 of his last 5 outings. On the season he is 10-for-17 (59%) to the under, and against Arizona he has been held below this mark in two of three meetings. DraftKings, Caesars, and Sleeper all price the under at roughly −135 while Underdog is still hanging even odds, signaling a clear market discrepancy Harrelson wants to exploit. Split stats back the fade as well: Bernabel’s batting average drops from .312 overall to .263 versus left-handed pitching, and Diamondbacks lefty starter Rodriguez limits right-handed hitters to a .291 average. Harrelson is leveraging the combination of recent form, platoon drop-off, and mispriced odds to bet Bernabel stays under 1.5 bases.

Jordan noted that Outlier absolutely loves Ezequiel Tovar versus Eduardo Rodriguez. Tovar is 3-for-9 off the lefty (two singles, double), owns a .308 average versus southpaws, and has a .321 mark over the past week with 9 hits. The model assigns a 90 % chance to log a hit, 72 % to reach 2+ total bases, 85 % for 2+ H/R/RBI, and even a 31 % shot at a homer. Jordan recommends riding the total-base ladder or the hits+runs+RBI combo, given Coors Field context.

On the Rockies side, Jordan likes Brenton Doyle against Diamondbacks southpaw Eduardo Rodriguez, who is allowing a .291 average to right-handed bats and just gave up 5 ER to Colorado last week. Doyle is 3-for-9 off Rodriguez with a homer, owns a .330 average versus lefties, and is hitting .353 over his last six games (2 HR). AI probabilities: 76 % hit, 46 % 2+ total bases, 63 % 2+ H/R/RBI, with only a 12 % HR chance. Jordan prefers the safer hit or combo markets here.

For the second straight day Lindquist’s projection blend shows value on Colorado +1.5 runs against Toronto. Even after the Blue Jays rolled the Rockies in the opener, his last-10-game data and multi-model aggregate still favor the Coors Field underdog when the line is around even money. With Kevin Gausman opposing Kyle Freeland, the market is likely to inflate Toronto again, but Lindquist says the numbers justify taking the extra run and banking on some Coors volatility.

Bill Harrelson recommended the UNDER 1.5 combined hits + runs + RBIs for Orlando Arcia in Sunday’s Rockies-Pirates matchup. Arcia has fallen short of this number in 9 of his last 10 games and 17 of his last 20 (85%). He is 5-for-7 to the under in his last seven meetings with Pittsburgh and owns a 74% season-long under rate (34-of-46). Over his past 12 games at Coors Field he is averaging just 0.7 H/R/RBI. Harrelson highlighted Arcia’s .179 overall batting average and a worse .167 mark against right-handed pitching, while Pirates starter Mitch Keller is limiting righties to a .229 average versus a .243 overall. With other books pricing the under similarly, Harrelson expects Arcia and a lackluster Colorado lineup to stay quiet once again.

Kenny G is backing Colorado at +148, noting the Pirates are coming apart. Pittsburgh is 16-37 on the road and just dropped an 8-5 decision here with staff ace Paul Skenes on the hill. Keller’s recent stumble plus a fading bullpen give the Rockies a path even with their own ugly 14-38 home mark. Kenny points out Blalock has allowed only four total earned runs across his last three starts, and Colorado’s lineup is "hitting the cover off the ball" right now. Given Pittsburgh’s tailspin and the plus-money price, he feels the home dog is worth a swing.

Eric Pathi said to bet the Colorado Rockies as roughly +135 home underdogs against the Pittsburgh Pirates on 8/3. Pathi argued that Pittsburgh is “one of the worst road favorites in baseball,” so laying about –165 on the Pirates makes no mathematical sense. His dog-value system already hit the Rockies at +190 the night before, which means bettors can split these two wagers 1-1 and still clear a 0.90-unit profit. The combination of the Pirates’ poor road favorite record, the attractive price on Colorado, and the favorable bankroll scenario led Pathi to label the Rockies a complimentary play for the second straight day.

Bill Harrelson advised taking Orlando Arcia under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs. Arcia has failed to clear this number in five straight, ten straight overall, and 18 of his last 20 contests. Against the Pirates he is 0-for-3 off Andrew Heaney and has cashed the under in three consecutive and five of the last six meetings. The Braves infielder has stayed below this line in 34 of 45 games this year (76 %) and carried a 62 % under rate across 159 games last season. With only about four plate appearances projected and no recent signs of life, Harrelson expects another quiet day.

Bill Harrelson urged bettors to take Ryan McMahon for more than 0.5 total bases, pointing to an extended run of consistency. McMahon has cashed this prop in eight of his last ten games and 13 of his last 20, averaging 2.2 total bases across his past 12 contests. Against Tampa Bay specifically, he has cleared the number in seven of the last nine meetings (78 %), including a three-base outing yesterday. Harrelson highlighted a 260-game sample that shows McMahon beating this line roughly 56 % of the time, with a 62 % hit rate during last season alone. The matchup also looks favorable: McMahon owns a .500 career average with five total bases versus today’s right-handed starter, and he is slugging .225 against righties this year compared with .220 overall. Underdog is hanging the same 0.5 line other books have shaded higher, giving what Harrelson called “a great price in this market.” With McMahon locked into four plate appearances per night, Harrelson sees little downside in riding the hot hand for one single base hit, walk, or extra-base knock.

Smith took a contrarian angle, grabbing Colorado first-five and the full-game over. He pointed to rookie Tanner Gordon’s six scoreless frames versus St. Louis and said Cleveland’s lineup doesn’t scare him. Guardians lefty Logan Allen has allowed six-plus hits in four of his last five Progressive Field starts and carries a quirky 4-3-2-1 earned-run pattern in his last four outings; Smith joked he hopes the trend means five runs next. Colorado is 5-5 in its last 10 and showing signs of life at the top of the order, so he’s betting they can scratch out an early edge before Cleveland’s bullpen takes over.

Kenny G leaned to Colorado at a juicy +190 despite their dreadful 13-40 road record, arguing the number overstates Cleveland’s edge. Rookie Tanner Gordon (3.13 ERA) just tossed six shutout frames against St. Louis and gets another soft offense here. Meanwhile, Logan Allen has underwhelmed (6-9, 4.16 ERA) and the Guardians are 1-4 in his last five starts. Cleveland’s lineup is 26th in runs and 29th in OBP, so Kenny doubts it can create enough separation to justify a near ‑235 price. He acknowledged Colorado’s shaky bullpen but feels the Guardians’ inconsistent bats and merely average pen (3.70 ERA) keep this within upset range. With both teams trending under on their home/road splits, he considered the 8.5/9 under but ultimately prefers the Rockies moneyline for the value.

Eric Lindquist recommended taking the Rockies +1.5 runs at Cleveland. He called Logan Allen the "new-age Cal Quantrill," noting a 9.9 % barrel rate and sub-18 % strikeout rate that leave him constantly flirting with disaster. Although Colorado’s lineup is watered down, Lindquist still likes the left-on-left power of Nolan Jones and the recent form of Hunter Goodman and Mickey Moniak. With Tanner Gordon on the hill for Colorado, Lindquist admitted the Rockies will give up runs, but he expects Allen’s low-whiff profile to keep Colorado competitive enough to stay within a run at plus money.

Eric Pathi advised grabbing the Colorado Rockies money-line at +220 on Saturday strictly as a play against Baltimore’s poor record when laying chalk. Pathi highlighted that the Orioles are 19-26 as favorites this season compared with 22-27 as underdogs and just dropped a 6-5 game to these same Rockies in Friday’s matchup. His angle is a simple situational fade: any time Baltimore is favored, back the other side regardless of opponent. With Colorado again installed as a sizeable underdog, Pathi believes the spot offers built-in value and labeled the Rockies his complimentary selection.

Kenny G leaned toward backing the Rockies at +185 in Baltimore, insisting the Orioles have no business laying -225. He cited Kyle Freeland’s quiet turnaround—six scoreless innings versus St. Louis two starts ago and 6 IP/1 ER against Minnesota last time out—while Baltimore’s offense has managed just 4, 2, 3, 5 and 5 runs in its last five and ranks 24th in both runs and OBP. Kenny acknowledged Colorado’s bullpen ERA near 5.00 and league-worst 12-38 road record but argued those negatives are fully baked into the price. Meanwhile the Rockies lineup has produced 6, 8, 2, 1 and 10 runs across the last five and could stay hot against an Orioles relief unit he called "bad all season." All told, he sees enough on-field value to justify a small play on Colorado.

Rockford bet Over 11, projecting the game at 11.4 runs given the combination of Andre Pallante and Kyle Freeland plus Coors Field’s elevation and a bottom-five Rockies bullpen. Freeland owns a 6.00 ERA at home with opponents slugging .349, while Pallante has been worse on the road lately, coughing up 12 earned across his last two starts. The Cardinals scored six runs Tuesday and Rockford expects their bats to stay hot, but he also sees Colorado’s lineup tagging Pallante enough to cash the total. With neither starter trustworthy, he prefers attacking runs rather than paying –190 on St. Louis.

Scott Reichel is taking the Rockies around +162, calling the –194 price on St. Louis ‘crazy’ with Andre Pallante in his current form. Pallante has been tattooed for 12 earned runs over his last two starts and the Cardinals have dropped four straight games he’s started. While Kyle Freeland’s season line is ugly (2-10, 5.19 ERA), Reichel pointed out that the left-hander has allowed fewer than four earned runs in three consecutive outings—acceptable by Coors standards. With two shaky starters and equally shaky bullpens, Reichel prefers siding with the big home dog rather than laying heavy chalk on a road team that is just 21-30 away from Busch Stadium.

Kenny G leaned toward taking Colorado at the juicy +165 number, framing it as a value play against a Cardinals club that is finally regressing. He highlighted Andre Pallante’s unraveling—5-6 record, 4.71 ERA, tagged for 11 earned runs in his last two outings and an 0-4 team record over his past four starts. St. Louis’ offense has fallen hard after an overachieving first half, now just 12th in runs and 18th in slugging, and the Cards are a mediocre 23-29 on the road. Kyle Freeland’s surface line (2-10, 5.19 ERA) looks ugly, yet Kenny noted his most recent start (6 IP, 1 ER vs Minnesota) and a string of serviceable efforts in four of his last five. While Colorado’s bullpen owns the fourth-worst ERA (4.95) and the lineup ranks 28th in runs, Kenny argued the massive plus-money offsets those warts given St. Louis’ free-fall and Pallante’s fade. With Coors Field totals sitting at 11 and the Rockies 27-22-1 to the under at home, he believes the dog moneyline is the only side showing any value—even if it is not strong enough for his pinned comment.

Lonte Smith selected Ryan McMahon as his home-run play against Eric Fetty and a vulnerable Cardinals bullpen at Coors Field. Smith pointed out that McMahon has erupted for eight hits in his last six starts, three of which left the yard, and that the left-handed slugger owns a .580 SLG at home this season. Eric Fetty has coughed up 20 earned runs and six long balls over his last four outings—a trend Smith already tapped when betting the full-game Over 11.5 earlier in the pod. With the first-five total expected around 6.0 due to Coors’ altitude, Smith likes McMahon’s +425 HR price to cash in what he expects to be another fireworks show.

Just A Bet Outside’s dog of the day is Rockies moneyline +130 at Coors Field. Rookie Michael McGreevy is making his first career Coors start after not pitching in the majors since June 24, and the host expects the elevation to magnify his modest 15 % strikeout rate. Austin Gomber, while far from elite, owns plenty of altitude experience and recently limited Houston and the Dodgers to three combined earned runs over 10 Coors innings. St. Louis is also flying in after being swept in Arizona, a schedule quirk the tout believes adds to the adjustment period. With Colorado taking two of three from Minnesota over the weekend, the slight pitching edge and home-field familiarity make the Rockies a live home dog.

Malcom Bamford grabbed Colorado at +120, trusting Austin Gomber to give the Rockies a puncher’s chance against a Cardinals rotation in shambles. St. Louis pushes yet another depth arm—Michael McGreevy—into the altitude after already owning the sixth-worst starter ERA in July. Bamford noted two of McGreevy’s first four MLB appearances ended in crooked-number shootouts, and Coors Field only magnifies contact issues. While Gomber’s 7.36 home ERA looks ugly, Bamford pointed out that nine of those runs came in a single blow-up versus Arizona; otherwise he has kept Colorado in games and the Rockies have won four of his last five. With St. Louis losers of six straight and their bullpen overworked, Bamford felt any plus-money number on Colorado was worth firing.

Chris Ruffolo advised taking the Colorado Rockies at plus money—either first-five or full-game moneyline—when they host St. Louis on July 21 at Coors Field. He faded Cardinals spot-starter Michael McGreevy, noting McGreevy has a 5.74 ERA and all 10 of his earned runs came in three June outings, the last of which saw him surrender five runs on seven hits over 4.2 innings on June 24. Ruffolo stressed the altitude factor for a pitcher who has not worked since that date and whose only prior Coors appearance still produced three runs and a homer in five innings. Colorado’s bats have shown life, hitting .280 versus right-handed pitching over their last five games, while St. Louis is 22-29 on the road and batting just .213 against lefties in their last 10 contests. Although Austin Gomber is hardly trustworthy, Ruffolo highlighted Gomber’s rebound—three total runs allowed across five-inning starts versus the Dodgers and Astros after an initial nine-run blowup. He does caution that Colorado owns July’s worst bullpen ERA, another reason to consider the first-five line, but ultimately recommends siding with the Rockies rather than laying road juice with St. Louis.

Eric Pathi said the only play for Saturday is to take the Rockies as home underdogs because Minnesota is a "shit road favorite." He pointed out the Twins are 19–29 away from Target Field and would have lost backers 11.5 units (-$1,147 on $100 bets) if you rode them on the road all season. Even without seeing the exact Saturday line, Pathi expects the Twins to be priced around –160 to –190 again in Game 2 at Coors. His system automatically fades teams with that kind of heavy-favorite juice when they have a losing road record, so the recommendation is Rockies moneyline at plus money rather than any conviction about Colorado’s roster.

It’s The Final Round anchored both of his suggested parlays with Kyle Freeland over 2.5 earned runs allowed. Freeland has been shelled for three or more runs in 75 % of his home starts this season, and Coors Field remains the most hitter-friendly park in baseball. Right-handed hitters are batting .327 against him overall and .367 in Denver, and the matchup with a hot Minnesota lineup featuring Byron Buxton only amplifies the risk. Given those splits and the altitude boost, the tout expects another rough outing and is confident enough to make this prop the common leg in both his minus-money and plus-money parlays.

Malcom Bamford skipped the side and instead attacked a Colorado team-total over (number not posted at recording). He cited Chris Paddack’s 15.7% HR/FB rate and ugly splits versus left-handed hitters, who own a .298 average against him. Coors Field only amplifies that weakness, and Bamford expects Bud Black to roll out a lefty-heavy lineup featuring Ryan McMahon, Michael Toglia and Charlie Blackmon. By focusing on the Rockies’ offense alone, he avoids the equally shaky Freeland and the two bullpens. Bamford projected four runs as a conservative baseline and sees a realistic path to six if Paddack’s fastball command disappears like it did in Chicago.

Targeting Chris Paddack’s road woes, Lonte Smith played the Rockies first-five moneyline at +140. Paddack owns a 5.50 ERA away from Target Field and just surrendered six runs to the Cubs before the break. Kyle Freeland has quietly limited four playoff offenses—including Boston, Houston and Philadelphia—to three or fewer earned in consecutive Coors Field starts, giving Colorado a puncher’s chance early. Smith prefers isolating the opening five frames to avoid Colorado’s combustible bullpen (6.02 ERA). With Paddack’s 43% hard-hit rate and .298 opponent average to lefties, Smith expects Ryan McMahon and fellow southpaws to jump him before Minnesota can turn to its relief corps.

Kenny G said the only side he could stomach in Rockies-Reds is Colorado at +205. He does not trust Nick Martinez’s 4.85 ERA or the Cincinnati bullpen that has cratered after a hot April. Martinez was “absolutely obliterated by the Marlins” in his last start and owns back-to-back clunkers, while Austin Gomber has at least shown flashes, including a two-run outing two starts ago. Both clubs trend heavily to the under in these home/road splits (Rockies 30-18-1 under away; Reds 28-17-4 under at home), reflecting lineups that have cooled — Cincinnati has scored 4-2-6-7-2 its last five and ranks just 15th in OBP. Kenny admitted Colorado’s offense is bottom-two by every metric and the bullpen ERA is nearly 5.00, but he argued the Reds’ form does not justify a -250 tag. In a game he “does not like,” the plus money on the Rockies is the only bettable angle for those determined to get involved.

Eric Pathi said to hit the Colorado Rockies moneyline again at roughly +200 after they cashed at that same number Friday night in Cincinnati. Pathi’s long-running road-dog system calls for an automatic re-bet when a team wins outright as a big dog and the books hang an identical or better price the very next day. He dismissed traditional handicapping angles—starting pitchers, bullpen form, even park factors—as irrelevant here, stressing that positive-EV in baseball comes from stacking plus-200 tickets, not laying juice with favorites. Rockies meet every parameter: road club, fresh off a plus-200 win (3-2), reposted at +200 overnight. The play is strictly price-driven, so Pathi will fire on Colorado regardless of lineup or pitching announcements, expecting long-term profit from the systemic edge.

Joey Pisapia called Estrada a sneaky add for managers needing middle-infield depth. Injuries ruined his first half, but his career .275 average with double-digit power and speed suggests a bounce-back. Welsh added that while Estrada’s current barrel and hard-hit numbers mirror low-impact contact guys like Freeman or Ernie Clement, his 14-homer/23-steal 2023 shows the upside if his swing rebounds. Coors Field and potential lineup promotions once Colorado sells at the deadline give him additional ceiling. Both touts agreed he’s worth a speculative claim, even though Welsh would still prioritize Freeman.

Welsh recommended grabbing Tyler Freeman wherever he’s still available. Freeman qualifies at shortstop and the outfield, is hitting .349 at Coors and .329 on the road, and sports a walk rate higher than his strikeout rate. He provides steady steals, leads off for Colorado, and should pile up runs. Welsh likened him to an NL version of Ernie Clement or Nico Hoerner—high average, speed, modest power—and called him the most interesting waiver add this week because his batting-average/runs/steals combo can anchor a roto lineup even if the homer total stays low.

Dylan Rockford pounded the Over 9 at –110 in Rockies-Red Sox, saying his model spits out 9.9. He called Antonio Senzatela a "gas can" after the right-hander allowed 4-plus runs in five of his last six outings and owns a 5.88 xERA. Boston’s bats are white-hot, averaging 5.33 runs per game at Fenway and hanging 36 runs in their last four contests. The total has cashed in five straight Red Sox games and four of Colorado’s last five, trends Rockford expects to continue with warm summer weather boosting carry. He is comfortable playing the over up to 9.5 given Colorado’s league-worst 5.60 road ERA and Senzatela’s .327 opponent average away from Coors.

Malcom Bamford kept it simple: play Boston on the run line or attack their team total because Kyle Freeland is hopeless in this park. Freeland’s 1-9 ledger and 5.49 ERA are backed by an alarming home-run/fly-ball rate that Bamford thinks will be magnified in cozy Fenway. The Rockies remain dead-last in wRC+ and slugging on the road, so Bamford is comfortable trusting Brayan Bello’s 3.60 Fenway ERA across 10 home starts. Boston, meanwhile, scores 6.18 runs per game at home and is fresh off a 27-run weekend versus Washington. With Colorado’s offense stuck in neutral and its bullpen offering no relief, Bamford expects the Sox to win comfortably and cash the –1.5.

Lonte Smith scrapped the traditional side-and-total approach and zeroed in on Boston’s team total over (posted at 4.5 when he looked). Smith loves the match-up for the Red Sox offense after they just swept Washington while hanging 27 runs. Boston has plated five-plus in six of its last ten, is slashing nearly .300 over that stretch and averages 6.18 runs per game at Fenway. Kyle Freeland is the perfect punching bag: a 1-9 record, 5.49 ERA, heavy pitch-to-contact profile and a homer-to-fly-ball rate that balloons outside Coors. Smith noted that if Freeland doesn’t have it early, Colorado’s bullpen—30th in ERA—will only accelerate the damage. With Brayan Bello turning in two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four, Lonte expects Boston to play from ahead and clear the team-total number on their own.

Lonte Smith is laying the small –115 with Colorado because German Marquez has rediscovered his 2021 form while the White Sox counter with a rusty Jimmy Canning coming off a back-strain layoff. Marquez has allowed two runs or fewer in four straight, posting a 1.33 ERA against offenses such as Milwaukee, the Dodgers, and Atlanta, and he has yielded one run or less in three of his last four outings at Coors Field. Smith expects Colorado’s lineup to capitalize on Canning’s lingering control issues—he walked three in just 3.2 innings in his first start back—and likes that Chicago’s bullpen has the fourth-worst ERA in the league since June 1. Even with an 11.5 total on the board, he leans Under but the stronger play is Rockies money-line at anything –120 or better.

Bill Harrelson advised betting Michael Toglia under 0.5 runs scored in the White Sox–Rockies night game. Underdog Fantasy is the only major book still hanging the prop because Toglia has failed to cross the plate in 10 straight contests and in 18 of his last 20 (90%). He also went scoreless in both previous meetings with Chicago. On the 2025 season he has stayed under in 53 of 68 games (78%), and when you blend in last year’s 115-game sample he is roughly a 70% hit to the under across 180 games. Harrelson pointed out that Toglia is slashing just .185 versus right-handed pitching (185 PA) and typically gets four trips to the box per game, giving him limited chances to score. With the market implying better than a coin-flip and the historical trend overwhelmingly on the under, Harrelson is happy to fade the run column once again.

Brad grabbed Rockies first-five plus a half-run. He argued Coors Field becomes a genuine advantage once summer heat arrives, and Colorado historically steals games there even when the roster is bad. Adrian Houser has never pitched in Denver and Brad expects the altitude and thin air to deliver a "rude awakening,” allowing the Rockies to either lead or at least stay tied through five.

Dylan Rockford preferred attacking Colorado’s offense directly, recommending the Rockies team-total under (4.5 or lower). Brandon Walter has surrendered more than two earned runs only once all year and now draws a Colorado lineup averaging barely four runs per game at Coors versus lefties. The Astros bullpen sits top-three in ERA, giving Colorado little relief once Walter exits. Given Freeland’s struggles, Dylan expects Houston to lead comfortably, limiting pinch-hit leverage for Colorado and keeping their scoring ceiling muted.

Reichel laid –1.5 runs at –120 with Milwaukee, pointing to Colorado’s horrific 10-31 road record versus the Brewers’ 25-16 dominance at American Family Field. Antonio Senzatela still carries one of the league’s worst statistical profiles even after allowing just two total earned runs over his last two appearances; his heavy strike-zone approach is a terrible fit against a Brewers lineup that puts the ball in play and runs well. Milwaukee counters with Quinn Priester, who before a rough start against the Twins had yielded fewer than two earned in three straight and owns almost identical home/road splits. With the talent gap and venue advantage, Reichel expects Milwaukee to cash multiple crooked numbers and trusts its bullpen to protect a multi-run cushion.

Kenny G recommended under 9 in Rockies-Brewers. He noted Antonio Senzatela’s quiet turnaround—three straight quality starts, 1.29 ERA in that span—and that rookie Quinn Priester owns a 3.68 ERA with Milwaukee winning all five of his June outings. Both home/road splits favor pitching: Colorado is 26-14-1 to the under away from Coors while Milwaukee is 25-15-1 to the under at home. The Brewers rank ninth in runs but just 16th in batting average, and Kenny doubts they punish Senzatela’s heavy-sink profile. Conversely, Colorado’s lineup sits 27th in runs and dead last in OBP, and faces a bullpen that’s league-average at worst. With two in-form starters and cold Colorado bats, he expects a low-scoring affair and only a small lean to Milwaukee’s pricey –240 moneyline.

Eric Lindquist called Hunter Goodman his favorite long-shot homer play in Milwaukee. Goodman owns a 51.4% hard-hit rate and an ideal 18-degree average launch angle. Lindquist noted that left-hander Jose Quintana (15.5% K-rate, 13-degree launch allowed) does not miss enough bats to neutralize Goodman’s pull power. With the roof likely closed at American Family Field—“it turns into a little bit of a sauna,” as Lindquist put it—carry improves for right-handed fly balls. All of that, plus plus-money markets hovering around +450, led Lindquist to recommend betting Goodman’s HR prop.

Lindquist grabbed Rockies +1.5 at plus money (even eyeing rogue +2s) against Arizona. He argues Colorado is no longer a pushover after reshuffling the roster: Michael Toglia returned from AAA with improved swing decisions, Hunter Goodman sports a 51.5 % hard-hit rate and deserves All-Star consideration, and Ryan McMahon’s expected slugging has climbed to .486. With Tyler Freeman and Mickey Moniak setting the table, the top of the order suddenly profiles as competent. Zac Gallen, once Lindquist’s guy, owns negative run-prevention metrics in 2024, while lefty Austin Gomber can survive if he avoids Suarez and a couple right-handed mashers. In a high-variance Coors environment, taking a run and a half at plus odds is simply too much value to pass up.

Just A Bet Outside wants the Rockies’ alt team-total over 2.5 because Zac Gallen simply is not right. Gallen owns a 5+ ERA and has allowed 4+ earned in six of his last seven, a trend the host cannot ignore as the game shifts to thin-air Coors. Colorado’s lineup is sizzling—five-plus runs in seven of their past ten overall and 5.7 per game during that stretch, most of it on the road. With the full game total sitting around 12 and an Arizona bullpen ranked bottom-five in xFIP backing Gallen, the tout sees three runs as the absolute floor for Colorado.

On principle, Scott Reichel is grabbing the Rockies at +130 against a Nationals club that has dropped 10 straight, including back-to-back multi-run losses to Colorado. While neither starter can be trusted, Reichel argues Washington should not be laying ‑155 in its current form. Colorado has won three in a row, scoring six or more in each. He advises taking the plus money on the moneyline—or at minimum the +1.5 run line—while Washington is in free fall.

Kenny G said the only playable side in D.C. is taking the Rockies at +143. Washington has dropped 10 straight and drags the worst bullpen ERA in baseball, while rookie left-hander Mitchell Parker has surrendered 14 earned runs over his last 15⅓ innings and continues to fight control issues. Colorado is suddenly hot—three wins in a row with 26 total runs—and hands the ball to German Marquez, who just limited Atlanta to one run over five innings in his best outing of 2025. Kenny admitted the Rockies’ own pen (4.69 ERA) is bottom-five but noted both clubs trend heavily to the under on their respective road/home splits (Rockies 24-12-1 under away, Nats 19-16-1 under at home), which should keep scoring in check long enough for the plus-money dog to cash. He called it a light play, not a pin-comment best bet, but the only side he could justify.

With Washington in the middle of a 10-game skid and Mitchell Parker’s ERA up to 4.84, Cash Out Sports Picks took the Rockies money-line. Colorado has won five of its last seven on the road, and the tout believes German Marquez is capable of a serviceable outing against a Nationals lineup that cannot buy a big hit right now.

Eric Pathi said to hammer the Colorado Rockies moneyline at roughly +200 in Monday’s series opener at Washington. His long-running situational system triggers whenever a team wins outright as a big underdog, then boards a sub-one-hour flight to start a new series the very next day. Colorado just beat Atlanta 2-1 as huge dogs, will be in D.C. after a 40-minute hop, and the market still lists them at 2-to-1. Pathi pointed to prior 2025 cashes on the Marlins, Red Sox, Athletics, and Rays in identical circumstances as proof the books consistently mis-price this spot. He called it an automatic play with no further handicap required.

Kenny G said the only way he could play this matchup is to grab Colorado at +260 because the Braves have not earned a –330 tag. Spencer Strider is 0-5 with a 5.40 ERA and Atlanta’s lineup is just 22nd in runs and 19th in batting average despite exploding for 12 runs in Game 1. The Rockies are bad, but Chase Dahlender did spin 5.2 one-run innings against these same Braves on April 30 and Atlanta’s 3.72 bullpen ERA is merely middle-of-the-pack. Colorado’s relief unit is ugly (4.74 ERA) and the offense ranks dead-last in almost every category, yet Kenny argued the gap between these clubs is nothing close to 260-cent money. He labeled it a “very small lean” but maintained the ML dog is far more attractive than laying a massive price with an ice-cold favorite.