Kenny G said the only side he could stomach in Rockies-Reds is Colorado at +205. He does not trust Nick Martinez’s 4.85 ERA or the Cincinnati bullpen that has cratered after a hot April. Martinez was “absolutely obliterated by the Marlins” in his last start and owns back-to-back clunkers, while Austin Gomber has at least shown flashes, including a two-run outing two starts ago. Both clubs trend heavily to the under in these home/road splits (Rockies 30-18-1 under away; Reds 28-17-4 under at home), reflecting lineups that have cooled — Cincinnati has scored 4-2-6-7-2 its last five and ranks just 15th in OBP. Kenny admitted Colorado’s offense is bottom-two by every metric and the bullpen ERA is nearly 5.00, but he argued the Reds’ form does not justify a -250 tag. In a game he “does not like,” the plus money on the Rockies is the only bettable angle for those determined to get involved.

Eric Pathi said to hit the Colorado Rockies moneyline again at roughly +200 after they cashed at that same number Friday night in Cincinnati. Pathi’s long-running road-dog system calls for an automatic re-bet when a team wins outright as a big dog and the books hang an identical or better price the very next day. He dismissed traditional handicapping angles—starting pitchers, bullpen form, even park factors—as irrelevant here, stressing that positive-EV in baseball comes from stacking plus-200 tickets, not laying juice with favorites. Rockies meet every parameter: road club, fresh off a plus-200 win (3-2), reposted at +200 overnight. The play is strictly price-driven, so Pathi will fire on Colorado regardless of lineup or pitching announcements, expecting long-term profit from the systemic edge.

Joey Pisapia called Estrada a sneaky add for managers needing middle-infield depth. Injuries ruined his first half, but his career .275 average with double-digit power and speed suggests a bounce-back. Welsh added that while Estrada’s current barrel and hard-hit numbers mirror low-impact contact guys like Freeman or Ernie Clement, his 14-homer/23-steal 2023 shows the upside if his swing rebounds. Coors Field and potential lineup promotions once Colorado sells at the deadline give him additional ceiling. Both touts agreed he’s worth a speculative claim, even though Welsh would still prioritize Freeman.

Welsh recommended grabbing Tyler Freeman wherever he’s still available. Freeman qualifies at shortstop and the outfield, is hitting .349 at Coors and .329 on the road, and sports a walk rate higher than his strikeout rate. He provides steady steals, leads off for Colorado, and should pile up runs. Welsh likened him to an NL version of Ernie Clement or Nico Hoerner—high average, speed, modest power—and called him the most interesting waiver add this week because his batting-average/runs/steals combo can anchor a roto lineup even if the homer total stays low.

Dylan Rockford pounded the Over 9 at –110 in Rockies-Red Sox, saying his model spits out 9.9. He called Antonio Senzatela a "gas can" after the right-hander allowed 4-plus runs in five of his last six outings and owns a 5.88 xERA. Boston’s bats are white-hot, averaging 5.33 runs per game at Fenway and hanging 36 runs in their last four contests. The total has cashed in five straight Red Sox games and four of Colorado’s last five, trends Rockford expects to continue with warm summer weather boosting carry. He is comfortable playing the over up to 9.5 given Colorado’s league-worst 5.60 road ERA and Senzatela’s .327 opponent average away from Coors.

Malcom Bamford kept it simple: play Boston on the run line or attack their team total because Kyle Freeland is hopeless in this park. Freeland’s 1-9 ledger and 5.49 ERA are backed by an alarming home-run/fly-ball rate that Bamford thinks will be magnified in cozy Fenway. The Rockies remain dead-last in wRC+ and slugging on the road, so Bamford is comfortable trusting Brayan Bello’s 3.60 Fenway ERA across 10 home starts. Boston, meanwhile, scores 6.18 runs per game at home and is fresh off a 27-run weekend versus Washington. With Colorado’s offense stuck in neutral and its bullpen offering no relief, Bamford expects the Sox to win comfortably and cash the –1.5.

Lonte Smith scrapped the traditional side-and-total approach and zeroed in on Boston’s team total over (posted at 4.5 when he looked). Smith loves the match-up for the Red Sox offense after they just swept Washington while hanging 27 runs. Boston has plated five-plus in six of its last ten, is slashing nearly .300 over that stretch and averages 6.18 runs per game at Fenway. Kyle Freeland is the perfect punching bag: a 1-9 record, 5.49 ERA, heavy pitch-to-contact profile and a homer-to-fly-ball rate that balloons outside Coors. Smith noted that if Freeland doesn’t have it early, Colorado’s bullpen—30th in ERA—will only accelerate the damage. With Brayan Bello turning in two earned runs or fewer in three of his last four, Lonte expects Boston to play from ahead and clear the team-total number on their own.

Lonte Smith is laying the small –115 with Colorado because German Marquez has rediscovered his 2021 form while the White Sox counter with a rusty Jimmy Canning coming off a back-strain layoff. Marquez has allowed two runs or fewer in four straight, posting a 1.33 ERA against offenses such as Milwaukee, the Dodgers, and Atlanta, and he has yielded one run or less in three of his last four outings at Coors Field. Smith expects Colorado’s lineup to capitalize on Canning’s lingering control issues—he walked three in just 3.2 innings in his first start back—and likes that Chicago’s bullpen has the fourth-worst ERA in the league since June 1. Even with an 11.5 total on the board, he leans Under but the stronger play is Rockies money-line at anything –120 or better.

Bill Harrelson advised betting Michael Toglia under 0.5 runs scored in the White Sox–Rockies night game. Underdog Fantasy is the only major book still hanging the prop because Toglia has failed to cross the plate in 10 straight contests and in 18 of his last 20 (90%). He also went scoreless in both previous meetings with Chicago. On the 2025 season he has stayed under in 53 of 68 games (78%), and when you blend in last year’s 115-game sample he is roughly a 70% hit to the under across 180 games. Harrelson pointed out that Toglia is slashing just .185 versus right-handed pitching (185 PA) and typically gets four trips to the box per game, giving him limited chances to score. With the market implying better than a coin-flip and the historical trend overwhelmingly on the under, Harrelson is happy to fade the run column once again.

Brad grabbed Rockies first-five plus a half-run. He argued Coors Field becomes a genuine advantage once summer heat arrives, and Colorado historically steals games there even when the roster is bad. Adrian Houser has never pitched in Denver and Brad expects the altitude and thin air to deliver a "rude awakening,” allowing the Rockies to either lead or at least stay tied through five.

Dylan Rockford preferred attacking Colorado’s offense directly, recommending the Rockies team-total under (4.5 or lower). Brandon Walter has surrendered more than two earned runs only once all year and now draws a Colorado lineup averaging barely four runs per game at Coors versus lefties. The Astros bullpen sits top-three in ERA, giving Colorado little relief once Walter exits. Given Freeland’s struggles, Dylan expects Houston to lead comfortably, limiting pinch-hit leverage for Colorado and keeping their scoring ceiling muted.

Reichel laid –1.5 runs at –120 with Milwaukee, pointing to Colorado’s horrific 10-31 road record versus the Brewers’ 25-16 dominance at American Family Field. Antonio Senzatela still carries one of the league’s worst statistical profiles even after allowing just two total earned runs over his last two appearances; his heavy strike-zone approach is a terrible fit against a Brewers lineup that puts the ball in play and runs well. Milwaukee counters with Quinn Priester, who before a rough start against the Twins had yielded fewer than two earned in three straight and owns almost identical home/road splits. With the talent gap and venue advantage, Reichel expects Milwaukee to cash multiple crooked numbers and trusts its bullpen to protect a multi-run cushion.

Kenny G recommended under 9 in Rockies-Brewers. He noted Antonio Senzatela’s quiet turnaround—three straight quality starts, 1.29 ERA in that span—and that rookie Quinn Priester owns a 3.68 ERA with Milwaukee winning all five of his June outings. Both home/road splits favor pitching: Colorado is 26-14-1 to the under away from Coors while Milwaukee is 25-15-1 to the under at home. The Brewers rank ninth in runs but just 16th in batting average, and Kenny doubts they punish Senzatela’s heavy-sink profile. Conversely, Colorado’s lineup sits 27th in runs and dead last in OBP, and faces a bullpen that’s league-average at worst. With two in-form starters and cold Colorado bats, he expects a low-scoring affair and only a small lean to Milwaukee’s pricey –240 moneyline.

Eric Lindquist called Hunter Goodman his favorite long-shot homer play in Milwaukee. Goodman owns a 51.4% hard-hit rate and an ideal 18-degree average launch angle. Lindquist noted that left-hander Jose Quintana (15.5% K-rate, 13-degree launch allowed) does not miss enough bats to neutralize Goodman’s pull power. With the roof likely closed at American Family Field—“it turns into a little bit of a sauna,” as Lindquist put it—carry improves for right-handed fly balls. All of that, plus plus-money markets hovering around +450, led Lindquist to recommend betting Goodman’s HR prop.

Lindquist grabbed Rockies +1.5 at plus money (even eyeing rogue +2s) against Arizona. He argues Colorado is no longer a pushover after reshuffling the roster: Michael Toglia returned from AAA with improved swing decisions, Hunter Goodman sports a 51.5 % hard-hit rate and deserves All-Star consideration, and Ryan McMahon’s expected slugging has climbed to .486. With Tyler Freeman and Mickey Moniak setting the table, the top of the order suddenly profiles as competent. Zac Gallen, once Lindquist’s guy, owns negative run-prevention metrics in 2024, while lefty Austin Gomber can survive if he avoids Suarez and a couple right-handed mashers. In a high-variance Coors environment, taking a run and a half at plus odds is simply too much value to pass up.

Just A Bet Outside wants the Rockies’ alt team-total over 2.5 because Zac Gallen simply is not right. Gallen owns a 5+ ERA and has allowed 4+ earned in six of his last seven, a trend the host cannot ignore as the game shifts to thin-air Coors. Colorado’s lineup is sizzling—five-plus runs in seven of their past ten overall and 5.7 per game during that stretch, most of it on the road. With the full game total sitting around 12 and an Arizona bullpen ranked bottom-five in xFIP backing Gallen, the tout sees three runs as the absolute floor for Colorado.

On principle, Scott Reichel is grabbing the Rockies at +130 against a Nationals club that has dropped 10 straight, including back-to-back multi-run losses to Colorado. While neither starter can be trusted, Reichel argues Washington should not be laying ‑155 in its current form. Colorado has won three in a row, scoring six or more in each. He advises taking the plus money on the moneyline—or at minimum the +1.5 run line—while Washington is in free fall.

Lindquist flagged Ryan McMahon’s home-run prop as a juicy play against Trevor Williams. Williams carries a 1.7 HR/9 and a 44% hard-hit rate, while McMahon owns a .230 ISO versus right-handers and will be fully rested after a day off Wednesday. With the game in Coors Field and Washington’s bullpen ranked 28th in xFIP, Lindquist expects plenty of chances for McMahon to leave the yard.

Kenny G said the only playable side in D.C. is taking the Rockies at +143. Washington has dropped 10 straight and drags the worst bullpen ERA in baseball, while rookie left-hander Mitchell Parker has surrendered 14 earned runs over his last 15⅓ innings and continues to fight control issues. Colorado is suddenly hot—three wins in a row with 26 total runs—and hands the ball to German Marquez, who just limited Atlanta to one run over five innings in his best outing of 2025. Kenny admitted the Rockies’ own pen (4.69 ERA) is bottom-five but noted both clubs trend heavily to the under on their respective road/home splits (Rockies 24-12-1 under away, Nats 19-16-1 under at home), which should keep scoring in check long enough for the plus-money dog to cash. He called it a light play, not a pin-comment best bet, but the only side he could justify.

With Washington in the middle of a 10-game skid and Mitchell Parker’s ERA up to 4.84, Cash Out Sports Picks took the Rockies money-line. Colorado has won five of its last seven on the road, and the tout believes German Marquez is capable of a serviceable outing against a Nationals lineup that cannot buy a big hit right now.

Eric Pathi said to hammer the Colorado Rockies moneyline at roughly +200 in Monday’s series opener at Washington. His long-running situational system triggers whenever a team wins outright as a big underdog, then boards a sub-one-hour flight to start a new series the very next day. Colorado just beat Atlanta 2-1 as huge dogs, will be in D.C. after a 40-minute hop, and the market still lists them at 2-to-1. Pathi pointed to prior 2025 cashes on the Marlins, Red Sox, Athletics, and Rays in identical circumstances as proof the books consistently mis-price this spot. He called it an automatic play with no further handicap required.

Kenny G said the only way he could play this matchup is to grab Colorado at +260 because the Braves have not earned a –330 tag. Spencer Strider is 0-5 with a 5.40 ERA and Atlanta’s lineup is just 22nd in runs and 19th in batting average despite exploding for 12 runs in Game 1. The Rockies are bad, but Chase Dahlender did spin 5.2 one-run innings against these same Braves on April 30 and Atlanta’s 3.72 bullpen ERA is merely middle-of-the-pack. Colorado’s relief unit is ugly (4.74 ERA) and the offense ranks dead-last in almost every category, yet Kenny argued the gap between these clubs is nothing close to 260-cent money. He labeled it a “very small lean” but maintained the ML dog is far more attractive than laying a massive price with an ice-cold favorite.

Gianni the Greek said he grabbed the Colorado Rockies first-five team-total under 2.5 runs on Thursday. He pointed to Giants spot-starter Burt Song allowing more than 2.5 runs only once in his last four outings and rarely sticking around long enough for a third trip through the order. Gianni also highlighted a brutal travel spot for Colorado— the club played a very late game last night and now turns around for an early afternoon start— a pattern that historically depresses run production. With a sharp early arm on the mound and groggy Rockies bats, Gianni projects one, maybe two Colorado runs through five at most.

Perrault advised swallowing the juice and taking the Giants -1.5 runs at Coors Field (priced around -160). His case: the Rockies own just six home wins and a disastrous 10-21 home run-line record (32.3%). Overall they’re 23-42 ATS. Rookie lefty Carson Palmquist has been shelled in his lone Coors start (12.46 ERA, 10 hits and 7 runs in 4.1 IP versus Philadelphia) and the club has lost – and failed to cover – every game he has started. San Francisco, meanwhile, is 18-15 ATS on the road, riding a five-game winning streak, and 3-1 straight-up and ATS against Colorado this year, scoring 4-6-9 runs in their three covers. In a tight NL West race, Perrault expects the Giants to keep the pedal down and win comfortably.

Just A Bet Outside tacked on a juice-reducer: betting NO on Carson Palmquist to record a win. The rookie lefty has completed the five innings required for a decision only once in four tries and sports an 8.50 ERA with a 1.83 WHIP. Colorado starters as a group have produced just six or seven wins through 65 games, illustrating how rarely a Rockies arm checks all three win conditions (5+ IP, leave with a lead, bullpen preserves it). Facing a Giants lineup in Coors Field further stacks the deck against Palmquist surviving deep enough or exiting with an intact lead. The tout views the NO-win prop (around –500 at DraftKings) as an ideal de-juicer to pair with other legs because the path to a Palmquist win is ‘a very big challenge for the Rockies.’

Kenny G recommended taking Colorado at +115 and pairing it with the under 8.5. He noted the Rockies have quietly won two straight and just clinched the series, while Miami has dropped three in a row. Kyle Freeland (0-8, 5.72 ERA) is unreliable, but Colorado’s bullpen has improved to a 4.05 ERA and the Marlins lineup ranks 22nd in runs and 20th in slugging. Cal Quantrill has strung together four solid outings, but Miami’s pen is still a liability at 4.53 ERA. Offensively, both clubs sit in the league’s bottom tier—Colorado is dead-last in runs, average, and OBP, and Miami has produced 2, 4, 2, 1, and 0 runs in its last five. The Rockies are 4-28 on the road yet an MLB-best 21-10-1 to the under away from Coors, reinforcing the total angle. Kenny framed it as a low-scoring grind where any run support makes the plus-money dog attractive.

Eric Lindquist said he is backing Colorado on the First-Five money line at plus odds because, despite both starters being shaky, Kyle Freeland is still the more reliable arm than Cal Quantrill right now. Freeland’s south-paw profile can mute several of Miami’s most dangerous left-handed bats, and the Marlins have been mixing and matching odd, run-suppression lineups while they explore trade possibilities for Sandy Alcantara. Miami just optioned Matt Mervis and continues protecting pitchers with quick hooks, so Lindquist expects a watered-down lineup and early bullpen usage. With Colorado unlikely to be an underdog to Quantrill in most scenarios, he likes the Rockies to be ahead through five innings.

Kenny G leaned toward taking the Rockies at +150 on the money-line. His case centers on how bad Sandy Alcantara has been for Miami—an 8.47 ERA with at least four earned runs surrendered in five straight outings—and a Marlins bullpen that owns a 4.55 ERA, noticeably worse than Colorado’s 4.16 mark. Even though the Rockies are a league-worst 30th in runs and batting average, they have actually been competitive on the mound lately and already tagged the Marlins for six runs in Monday’s series opener. Colorado’s road record is miserable (3-28), but Kenny thinks Alcantara’s collapse plus Miami’s bottom-eight offense (24th in runs, 21st in SLG) levels the playing field enough to make the Rockies a value play at a fat price.

Chris Ruffolo advised that German Marquez is pitching better than his bloated 7.13 season ERA implies and could be a sneaky DFS tournament play. Ignoring one blow-up at Arizona, Marquez has logged three quality starts in his last four outings—7 IP/1 ER vs San Diego, 7 IP/1 ER vs Philadelphia, and 6 IP/2 ER with 6 K at Wrigley. That stretch comes with a 3.52 ERA and an even better 3.04 FIP, suggesting bad luck more than bad pitching. The matchup is favorable: Miami has scored three or fewer in seven of its last ten and mustered just three runs total against the Giants. Ruffolo expects Marquez to limit damage again and offer salary relief with upside.

Kenny G said the Rockies money-line at +168 is worth a sprinkle because German Marquez has quietly looked serviceable in three of his last four outings (6 IP, 2 ER vs Cubs; 6 IP, 1 ER vs Phillies). Max Meyer, on the other hand, owns a 4.53 ERA and was tagged for six runs his last time out, even struggling against the light-hitting White Sox earlier in the year. Both bullpens are bottom-seven in ERA (COL 4.24, MIA 4.58), so late-inning carnage favors the dog. Colorado’s offense is dead last in runs and OBP, but Kenny noted Miami sits just 24th in runs scored, making it difficult for the Marlins to justify a −200 price tag. He leans to the full-game Over 8 because of the shaky arms on both sides, yet believes the sharper play is taking the plus money with the Rockies in a battle of two bad clubs.

Scott Reichel advised playing over 7.5/8 in Rockies-Mets. Both starters are southpaws, and a 7-mph breeze is blowing out to left—perfect for right-handed power in Citi Field’s friendlier dimensions. Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland is 0-7 with an 8-run implosion at Yankee Stadium last week, while Mets lefty David Peterson has been steady (two earned in three straight) but rarely dominant. Reichel expects New York’s slumping offense to pop against a pitcher allowing a .317 average and 43% hard-hit rate. He also sees Colorado’s right-handed bats capable of lofting a couple fly-ball homers into the wind. Projection: Mets 6, Rockies 3, with double-digit runs live by the seventh.

LM Tipster likes Thairo Estrada over 1.5 hits. Estrada is hitting .342 vs sinkers and Cal Quantrill throws the pitch 40% of the time. With Estrada batting second and Miami’s bullpen carrying a 5.21 ERA, LM projects four plate appearances, enough volume for two knocks.

Erik Halterman advised trading for Brenton Doyle, noting the outfielder ranks third in MLB in Baseball Savant’s new Ideal Attack Angle metric (5–20 degrees) behind Corbin Carroll and Kyle Schwarber. Despite a bleak .208 average and .594 OPS that resemble his 2023 struggles, Doyle’s skills have actually improved: he cut his strike-out rate from 35% in 2022 to 25% last year and sits at 24% this season, while his barrel rate climbed from 9% to 11% to 13%. Halterman attributed the slow start to a mid-April quad tweak and a bereavement-list stint, not skill erosion. With elite attack-angle consistency, rising barrel rate, and sustained contact gains, Halterman sees Doyle as a classic buy-low for season-long fantasy leagues.

Reichel preferred to keep Max Fried attached to his wager and opted for the Rockies team total Under 3.5. Fried has a microscopic 0.71 ERA on the road and chops right through left-handed power with a 63% ground-ball rate. Colorado owns the worst 50-game start in 120 years (8-42) and averages just 2.6 runs per game versus southpaws. Even though Coors inflates offense, Reichel trusts Fried’s heavy sinker/curve mix to stay below the barrel and pointed out that New York’s bullpen backs him with a 2.88 ERA in May. He sees a 9-2 or 8-1 type Yankees win and wants nothing to do with Colorado’s bats.

Bryan Power played under 10.5 runs (would go down to 10) in Rockies–Yankees. He cited New York starter Max Fried allowing two or fewer runs in all ten of his 2025 outings, making a big inning from Colorado unlikely. For the Rockies, Kyle Freeland has gone at least five innings while surrendering three or fewer runs in three of his last four starts, giving the under a fighting chance at altitude. Power added that Colorado has not won back-to-back games since May 1 or beaten any opponent twice in the same series all season, underscoring their offensive inconsistency.

Data Skrive’s win-probability model gave Colorado a 41% chance to upset the Yankees, while the +241 price implies only 29.3% break-even odds. That 11-percentage-point edge translates to roughly +50 cents of expected value. New York has dropped the only prior game this season when priced at -300 or shorter, and the Yankees have covered the run line in just half of their past ten despite being favorites in all of them. Colorado, meanwhile, has already cashed two tickets in 11 tries at +241 or longer. With the model disagreement that large, Data Skrive labeled the Rockies moneyline a worthwhile stab rather than laying the steep juice with New York.

Peterson bet Under 12 (projected 10.8). Colorado ranks 28th in scoring at 3.3 runs per game and under 4.3 even at Coors Field. Yankees righty Clarke Schmidt has a 4.41 ERA and is backed by a bullpen ranked 10th at 3.43. Rockies rookie Tanner Gordon owns a sterling 2.29 FIP, indicating he can survive the Yankee lineup. Given the struggling home bats and two competent relief units, Peterson sees value in a rare Coors Field under.

Garofolo reported that Dimers’ engine gives the Phillies-Rockies Under 11 runs a 53.6% hit rate versus the 51.2% break-even implied by the -105 number at BetMGM, producing a 2.4% edge. The model’s simulations suggest the market is slightly overestimating the Coors Field run environment for the Thursday afternoon game.

Greg Peterson bet the Under 11.5, handicapping the true total at 10.3. He noted Colorado’s lineup is producing only 3.3 runs per game overall (27th in MLB) and just 4.3 per game even in the altitude of Coors Field. Ranger Suarez has surrendered three total runs over his last 14 innings and enters with elite current form, while German Marquez’s ugly 8.78 ERA is offset by a much more reasonable 4.84 FIP, 0.9 HR/9 and 3.6 BB/9. With one offense sputtering and both starters displaying underlying metrics better than the surface numbers suggest, Peterson expects scoring to stay below the posted 11.5.

Lindquist added Over 11.5 runs in Phillies-Rockies to his betting card. He expects lefty-heavy Colorado to hammer Taijuan Walker’s walk-prone profile (39.2% hard-hit, no K-stuff, altitude amplifier) and sees Philadelphia teeing off on rookie Carson Palmquist, who posted an 11.25 ERA and 5.09 xERA in his 76-pitch MLB debut. His model projects closer to 12.5 runs, citing Coors Field run-environment and two volatile bullpens.

JD Bets targeted Antonio Senzatela’s hits-allowed prop, taking the over at 6.5 (-120) in Coors Field. Senzatela is averaging a whopping 8.0 hits surrendered across his last five outings, including an eight-hit meltdown versus Texas. The Rockies routinely let him wear it—he has completed at least five innings in four straight starts—giving Philadelphia ample cracks at his pitch-to-contact arsenal. The Phillies rank top-10 in hits, batting average, OBP and slugging, and the heart of their order owns gaudy BvP numbers: Bryce Harper 2 HR on a .385 average, J.T. Realmuto .262, and Trea Turner .417. JD expects Philly to string together singles and doubles rather than rely on long balls, forecasting a scenario where Senzatela coughs up seven knocks by the fifth inning. He labeled the play a "fade Senzatela" staple that should close closer to 7.5 by first pitch.

Boston recommended playing the Rockies team total UNDER 4.5 runs at Coors despite the altitude bump. He trusts Jesus Luzardo to neutralize Colorado’s lineup, reminding listeners the Rockies rank 29th in wRC+ versus left-handed pitching and generate negative run value on both four-seamers and sliders—the two pitches Luzardo throws a combined 73% of the time. Boston acknowledged the risk of a taxed Phillies bullpen but noted key leverage arms rested last night, giving Philadelphia enough bullets to protect a late lead. The elevation inflates the number to 4.5; if this game were in Philly it would be 3.5, so Boston is happy to pay the juice for the extra run of cushion. He projected five to six innings of two-run work from Luzardo and expects the Rockies to finish with three or fewer overall.

Lindquist nearly made over 10.5 his best bet at Coors Field. He expects Philadelphia to tattoo Antonio Senzatela, questioning why Colorado keeps rolling the right-hander out there when he owns a career 5.30 ERA at altitude and has looked no better in 2024. Lindquist also likened left-hander Cristopher Sanchez’s recent form to Jesus Luzardo’s volatility, forecasting crooked numbers from both sides and a bullpen slug-fest late. He loves that bettors clear the key number of 11, avoiding pushes on standard 6-5 finals, and notes that minus-111 vig is the only drawback. If overnight steam does not take the total to 11, he will likely add this over to his official card by morning.

Eric Pathi advised grabbing Colorado +1.5 at roughly +150 for the May 20 matchup in Philadelphia, calling it a "system play"—the same proprietary model that delivered yesterday with Miami. Pathi said his database shows underdogs with an inflated price routinely outperform the market, while public money flocks to favorites like the Phillies. By jumping on the Rockies run line, bettors align with what he labels his "best bet in baseball" category, a designation normally reserved for his paid "syndicate" clients.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended taking the Rockies on the run-line, pointing to several indicators that Colorado can keep this one close. Kyle Freeland has produced two quality starts in his last three outings and owns a strong history versus the current Philadelphia roster, holding them to a .213/.258/.380 slash line across 150 plate appearances. Colorado has quietly covered in back-to-back games, while Philadelphia’s bats have cooled off, ranking just 16th in average and 17th in OPS over the past week. If Freeland delivers another solid effort and the Rockies’ recent form continues, the plus runs are worth grabbing.

The tout also played the UNDER in the desert. Colorado has scored three or fewer in nine of its last 12 games and ranks 29th in MLB at 3.20 runs per contest—just 2.14 on the road. Rockies totals sit 24-18-1 to the under, with road games averaging only 7.23 runs. The Diamondbacks’ games are 21-19-4 to the under, and they score less at home (4.83) than on the road. With Arizona’s starter rolling and Colorado’s offense in neutral, Cash Out Sports Picks projected a modest tally that stays beneath the posted number.

Guy Boston suggested betting the Colorado team total under 3.5 (−105) at Globe Life. Patrick Corbin’s resurgence is backed by a 31 % whiff rate on his slider/sinker combo— the very pitches Colorado ranks bottom-three against in run value. The Rockies have topped three runs just twice in their last nine games and are slashing .211/.281/.337 in that stretch. Boston conceded Corbin’s 1.32 WHIP hints at traffic but trusts Texas’ bullpen (3.38 ERA, fifth-best leverage index) to clean up if necessary. Because Antonio Senzatela offers little strikeout upside, Boston prefers fading Colorado’s bats rather than laying the Rangers run line in what he expects to be a low-scoring affair.

Scott Reichel bet Brenton Doyle under 1.5 total bases at –125. Doyle has stayed below two bases in 18 of his last 21 contests and in 12 of 15 road games this year, producing a miserable 41 wRC+ away from Coors. Reichel highlighted Doyle’s .139 ISO and 29% K-rate against southpaws on the road, plus a 1-for-5 career line versus left-hander Patrick Corbin, who has quietly posted a 3.21 ERA and 1.05 WHIP at home. With Texas’ park suppressing power and Doyle projecting to bat ninth in a weak Colorado lineup, Reichel sees very few paths to two bases, making the under a strong value play.

Dylan Rockford advised taking the Rockies team-total under rather than chasing the full-game number. Colorado averages only 2.15 runs per road game, owns the worst away OPS in baseball, and must face a resurgent Rangers staff that has allowed just 2.6 runs per contest since changing hitting coaches. Rockford noted the Colorado bullpen’s bottom-three ERA offers no late scoring safety net, so even if Texas jumps ahead early he still expects the Rockies to finish below their posted total of 3.5.

Malcolm Bamford tossed out Hunter Goodman as his home-run dart, banking on Jack Leiter’s command implosion. Leiter has yielded 10 earned runs and issued 10 walks over his last two starts, pushing his season WHIP to a ghastly 1.74. Colorado has thrived on contact under its new skipper, and Goodman has immediately slotted into the clean-up spot with a 45% fly-ball rate. Bamford believes the combination of hard-throwing but erratic righty and a power-hunting middle-order bat is perfect for a long-ball shot, especially in the warm Arlington air. He suggested anything north of +600 as playable and paired the prop with his previously stated Rockies team-total over for correlated upside.

Malcolm Bamford went the other way, grabbing the Rockies’ team-total over 3.5 instead. He cannot back Kyle Freeland, but he’s even less convinced Jack Leiter is ready—10 earned runs in Leiter’s last two outings and 10 walks over his past three point to command issues ripe for exploitation. Colorado just snapped a seven-game skid and Bamford thinks their contact-heavy lineup can scrape together four runs, especially with the wind projected to blow out at Globe Life. Because Texas ranks 25th in wRC+ versus lefties and has gone 8-3 to the under this month, he prefers isolating the vulnerable rookie on the other side rather than a full-game over.