The tout pivoted to the under, reminding listeners the series opener totaled only four runs and seven of the last ten meetings have cashed unders. Rupp has given up two runs or fewer in three straight, while Jobe has yet to allow a homer at Comerica and has twirled back-to-back scoreless home outings. Both offenses have cooled, with Detroit scoring three or fewer in three of five and the Giants doing the same in seven of nine. He predicted another tight pitcher’s duel finishing around 3-2, safely under the posted number.

Cash Out Sports Picks urged bettors to back Detroit, highlighting the club’s AL-best 19-8 home record and a league-leading 8-1 ledger when Jackson Jobe starts. The second-year right-hander sports a 2.61 ERA at Comerica and has allowed only six earned runs over 20.2 home innings. Detroit is hitting .248 at home with 130 runs scored, fourth-most in the AL. San Francisco has stranded runners all series and now counters with Landen Rupp, who owns a 4.21 road ERA. The Giants have lost seven of the last ten matchups with Detroit and have been held to three runs or fewer in three straight. With Jobe’s sinker generating a 55 % ground-ball rate and the bullpen rested, the tout expects the Tigers to finish the sweep.

Kenny G said the best angle in Giants-Tigers is the under 8. He trusts the recent form of both starters—Landon Roup has fired 12 consecutive scoreless innings against Oakland and Washington, while Detroit’s 22-year-old Jackson Jobe has allowed five earned runs total across his last three outings (2.45 ERA in that stretch). Kenny underscored that each bullpen is a weapon: San Francisco sits second-best in MLB with a 2.53 relief ERA, and Detroit checks in seventh at 3.35. Offensively, the Giants have produced just nine runs in their last five games and rank 24th in average and 22nd in slugging. Detroit is much improved but still profiles as league-average power. Betting trends line up, too—Tigers are 15-9-3 to the under at Comerica, and every game in the series has finished 3-1. Given quality arms on both ends and cold San Francisco bats, Kenny expects “offense at an absolute premium” and will be betting UNDER 8 runs.

Dylan Rockford played Detroit –115 behind rookie Jackson Jobe, who owns a 2.61 ERA at home. He noted the Giants’ road struggles (.208 team average) and that they are 1-3 in Landon Rupp’s last four road starts, with Rupp giving up 2+ runs in six of seven away. Rockford believes Detroit is undervalued in this matchup.

Jay Yang advised betting the under 7.5 runs in the Giants-Tigers matchup featuring Logan Webb and Jack Flaherty. Yang expects Webb to post a quality start against a Detroit lineup that mustered little against Cleveland’s bullpen last series, while San Francisco’s offense remains in a prolonged cold spell. If Flaherty falters, Yang trusts the improved Detroit bullpen to limit damage and keep the total beneath the number. He noted he would have preferred an 8.5 total but still believes 7.5 offers value because of several model inputs: both starters’ ERAs, Webb’s elite ground-ball rate, each bullpen’s recent form, home/road splits, park factors at Comerica, current offensive trends, and even the assigned umpire’s under-leaning strike-zone tendencies. His model—which weighs ERA, GB/FB ratios, bullpen strength, offensive form, ballpark environment, public betting movement, and other situational variables—projects fewer than seven combined runs, making the under a positive-EV play.

Peterson took Detroit at +106 with a personal line of Tigers -107. Giants ace Logan Webb is a different pitcher away from Oracle Park, posting a 4.08 road ERA versus 2.68 at home while surrendering double the home-run rate. Detroit counters with Jack Flaherty (4.39 ERA, 1.9 HR/9) but backs him with a lineup that ranks fourth in MLB at more than 5.1 runs per game, giving the Tigers plenty of punch to exploit Webb’s road struggles.

Malcolm Bamford backed Detroit at even money. He just watched the Tigers take the series opener 3-1 and believes that result is a blueprint: both clubs are top-5 in run prevention but Detroit owns the better current offense and is 18-8 at Comerica. Flaherty’s 1.03 WHIP suggests his 4.05 ERA is a touch unlucky, while Logan Webb, though generally steady, is less dominant outside Oracle Park and is coming off a rare clunker (10 hits vs Kansas City). San Francisco’s lineup has been whiff-happy on the trip and Bamford prefers to trust Detroit’s form and home edge in a low-total game (O/U 7).

Kenny G leaned toward the full-game under 7 runs at Comerica Park. His argument is that Jack Flaherty has quietly steadied Detroit’s rotation and should handle a light-hitting Giants lineup, while Logan Webb has not looked dominant enough to scare him off an under. Webb’s shakiness is counterbalanced by a Tigers bullpen that owns a 3.36 ERA, fourth-best in the AL. Context clues also point lower: San Francisco road games are 16-11-1 to the over, but Detroit home games are 15-9-3 to the under, and the last meeting in this series produced only four total runs. Offensively, the Tigers remain a top-10 unit (4th in runs, 7th SLG, 8th OBP) yet have not produced one of their trademark breakout games in more than a week, further supporting a tighter score line. Because the number opened at a very low 7, he called it only a “slight shade” rather than a pinned-comment play, but bettors hunting an angle before first pitch can still grab the under based on the pitching setup, park factors, and Detroit’s stout late-inning relief corps.

Scott Jenstad told listeners to leave Parker Meadows on the wire unless they are in very deep leagues. He reminded everyone that Meadows hit only .244 with nine homers and nine steals in roughly a half-season last year, paired with a 25 % strike-out rate and a pedestrian 31 % hard-hit rate. Those numbers do not scream instant impact, and Jenstad doubts Detroit will hand him everyday at-bats the moment he is recalled. He summed it up as, “give me the guy who was actually good last year”—referring to Colton Cowser—over a stash whose track record is mostly tools and wish-casting.

Scott Jenstad advised passing on Matt Vierling in mixed-league FAAB because Detroit’s outfield is about to get crowded. Once Parker Meadows finishes his rehab assignment, the Tigers will have six left-handed bats—Riley Greene, Kerry Carpenter, Parker Meadows, Colt Keith, Zach McKinstry and Vierling—competing for four lineup spots, and Jenstad suspects Vierling will sit versus righties, the less favorable platoon split. With Spencer Torkelson entrenched at first, Vierling lacks a clear DH path, and Jenstad noted Colt Keith has already begun losing at-bats, hinting at further roster shuffling. In short, Jenstad doesn’t see the volume necessary for Vierling to matter in anything shallower than AL-only formats.

Dylan Rockford disagreed with his co-host and grabbed Detroit –110, explaining his model made the Tigers a –150 favorite. He hung his hat on Detroit’s elite 17-8 straight-up record at Comerica and the fact they average 4.8 runs per game at home, versus the Giants’ .212 road batting average and near-league-average 0.500 road record. While conceding Birdsong’s strong early numbers, Rockford expects Montero to get enough run support and projects a slightly higher-scoring environment (he set the total at 8.8 runs). He labeled the current price a clear value spot to “take the Tigers here.”

Kenny G said Detroit is worth a small play at -110 on the moneyline. He expects 24-year-old Keider Montero to rebound from being shelled by St. Louis, pointing out that the Tigers had won four straight Montero starts before that outing. Detroit’s bullpen sits top-10 in ERA, and the lineup is still fourth in MLB runs scored and top-10 in every slash-line category despite a brief lull. By contrast, San Francisco hands the ball to rookie Hayden Birdsong for just his second straight start; Birdsong handled Kansas City but was crushed by Arizona earlier. Kenny noted the Giants offense has cooled to the low-3-run range that better fits their mediocre contact and slug numbers. Even with San Francisco owning the league’s best bullpen (2.62 ERA), Kenny favors Detroit’s 18-8 home mark and top-10 offense to grind out enough support for Montero.

Cash Out Sports Picks played the full-game Over, noting both clubs have already scored 127 runs this year and Detroit sits ninth in home homers while batting .270 in May. Montero’s 5.25 ERA and the Giants’ .274 average with RISP create blow-up potential, and Birdsong’s lack of big-league track record raises stamina concerns. Although last season’s series averaged only six combined runs, the tout thinks a hotter Tigers lineup and shaky starters flip the script.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Tigers on the money line, stressing Detroit’s 18-8 record at Comerica and an AL-best 2.70 home ERA. San Francisco’s road bats have been ice-cold (.210 AVG in 27 road games, .215 vs AL clubs) and the Giants have dropped five of the last seven head-to-heads. Detroit still owns a four-game divisional cushion despite weekend wobble, and while starter Cater Montero has allowed eight earned over his last two outings, Giants rookie Carson Birdsong is only making his second start. The tout framed it as a rare chance to lay short home juice with a club that owns both the pitching edge in its park and recent series history.

Kingpin advised taking Tarik Skubal over 6.5 strikeouts. Skubal owns a 4-2 record with a 2.87 ERA and an elite 31% strikeout rate at Comerica Park, where the bigger dimensions suppress power and let him live in the zone. Cleveland ranks 28th in hard-hit percentage and is striking out 23.4% of the time against lefties over the last month. With Logan Allen expected to keep run scoring low, Kingpin projects a tight game that will keep Skubal on the mound deep into the seventh, giving him 100-plus pitch upside and a realistic path to 7–9 punch-outs.

Kenny G said to swallow the -220 money-line price on the Tigers because Tarik Skubal has been a bankroll machine. Skubal owns a 2.87 ERA with Detroit going 5-0 in his last five outings and only three overall losses all season when he has taken the mound. Even when he has not been razor sharp—three earned versus St. Louis and a shaky outing against Boston—the Tigers still found ways to win. Detroit’s bullpen (3.38 ERA) profiles as solid support, while Cleveland’s pen has slid to league-average at 3.82. Offensively, the Guardians sit 22nd in runs and 24th in average, and Kenny pointed out that their four-game win streak has been fueled by a couple of extra-inning explosions rather than sustained production. Detroit’s bats have cooled recently (five, one, zero, five, five runs) but remain fourth in MLB scoring and seventh in average, a slide Kenny does not expect to last. With Cleveland starter Logan Allen carrying only a 3.86 ERA and coming off a weather-short, three-inning appearance, Kenny expects Detroit to control the game early and hand it to the pen with a lead. He listed the Tigers as a potential ‘lock of the day’ and noted that a 7.5 total leans under but prefers the side.

Ron Romanelli said Detroit is a run-line buy because Tarik Skubal owns the clear mound advantage over Logan Allen. Romanelli noted the Tigers rank top-5 in May OPS versus left-handed pitching while striking out at a low clip, whereas Cleveland’s 638 OPS against southpaws sits below league average. He expects regression for Allen after a rocky outing against Minnesota on May 19, predicting Detroit scores early and often while Skubal delivers a quality start at spacious Comerica Park.

Drew Martin said Tarik Skubal’s current form makes Detroit the clear side. Skubal owns a 2.89 ERA, an even better 2.10 FIP, and a dominant 79-to-8 K/BB mark through 59 innings. The Tigers, who enter the weekend with MLB’s best record and a +80 run differential, have also hammered right-handed pitching and carry a bullpen edge. Martin contrasted that with Cleveland starter Logan Allen’s 21 walks in 44 innings and a two-and-a-third, seven-earned-run implosion the last time he faced Detroit. Because the moneyline will likely exceed –150, Martin is comfortable laying a home run line, confident Skubal can replicate the seven-inning, one-run gem he spun against Cleveland earlier this month.

For the total, Cash Out grabbed the under noting that both offenses are scuffling—Cleveland owns a .684 OPS and 3.8 runs per game over the last week while Detroit sits at .604 OPS and 3.0 runs. May pitching numbers are solid on both sides (Guardians 3.46 team ERA, Tigers 3.89), and the under is 6-3-1 in their last ten head-to-head meetings. With Mize coming off the IL throwing darts and Ortiz unlikely to work deep, the tout expects another low-scoring AL Central grind-fest and played the under.

Cash Out Sports Picks rode with Detroit because Casey Mize is 3-0 with a sparkling 1.47 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in 18.1 home innings, whereas Luis Ortiz owns a 6.58 road ERA and .287 BAA in 26 innings. Detroit’s bullpen backs him up with the sixth-best relief ERA (3.30) compared to Cleveland’s 18th-ranked group (4.01). The Tigers have weathered injuries to Mize and Reese Olson yet continue to grind out wins, while Cleveland’s lineup remains sporadic. With Ortiz’s recent struggles and the stronger bullpen support, Cash Out tagged the Tigers moneyline as the play.

Lonte Smith parlayed his Tigers lean with an Under 8.5 ticket, reasoning that Cleveland’s offense is "classic Guardians—just fine, not scary," and worn out from its third straight road series. Jobe has surrendered only four earned runs across his last three Comerica starts, while the Guardians are 3-7 over their past ten with a .291 OBP in that span. Smith acknowledged Jobe’s occasional walk issues but doubts Cleveland can capitalize. He expects Cechoni to keep Detroit in the park, producing a "4-2 or 3-2 type box score" that cashes the Under.

Scott Reichel called the +150 price on Detroit -1.5 "too juicy" to pass up. Jackson Jobe is 8-0 in his young career and the Tigers have covered the run line in six of those eight victories. Detroit is 17-5 at Comerica Park and supplies Jobe with 5.7 runs of support per start. Reichel knocked Cleveland’s road credentials (12-14) and emphasized that Xzavion Curry’s 5.40 ERA/5.23 xERA profile offers little swing-and-miss. The Guardians have scored three or fewer in eight of their last ten and rank 25th in road OPS. With Detroit’s bullpen rested while Cleveland’s relief corps has worked the second-most innings this week, he forecasted a 6-3 type game. Reichel would play the alternate -1.5 down to +140 and also leans Guardians team total Under 3.5.

Scott Reichel called Detroit -135 "disrespectful" given the Tigers’ 17-5 home record and the fact they’ve won all eight of Jackson Jobe’s big-league starts. Jobe has allowed only three earned over his last 11.2 innings and receives 5.7 runs of support per outing. Cleveland, conversely, is 12-14 away from Progressive Field and drags the league’s 25th-ranked road OPS. Reichel also knocked Xzavion Curry (pronounced Cechoni) for a 5.23 xERA and poor swing-and-miss profile. With a rested bullpen behind Jobe and Comerica’s spacious gaps suppressing Guardian power, he forecasted another comfortable Detroit win, advising bettors to lock in the short moneyline before it moves toward -160.

Peterson laid -128 with Detroit (made line -149). Guardians spot starter Slade Cecconi allowed 3 runs in 5 innings in his 2025 debut and carried a 6.66 ERA with Arizona last year. Detroit counters with top prospect Jackson Jobe and a bullpen that has posted the best ERA in baseball since the 2024 All-Star break. Peterson trusts the Tigers’ run prevention far more than Cleveland’s patchwork staff.

With lines still off the board, Rockford is already eyeing an over if the total opens below 9. Expected starters are left-handed bulk reliever Brant Hunter for Detroit (turning the game into a bullpen day) and Andre Pallante for St. Louis. Pallante has allowed 2-plus runs in 8 of 9 starts, and Detroit’s road offense is lively at 5.42 runs per game. Forecasts call for 15-mph wind blowing out to center at Busch Stadium. Rockford’s projection came to 8.9 runs, so he plans to fire on the first-five or full-game over as long as books hang anything in the 8–8.5 range.

Collin Whitchurch grabbed OVER 0.5 walks for Tarik Skubal at –180 despite the left-hander issuing only six free passes in 54 innings. The zag is about matchup: St. Louis ranks eighth in walk rate vs LHP (10.1 %) and boasts five hitters—Lars Nootbaar, Ivan Herrera, Nolan Arenado, Willson Contreras and rookie Masyn Winn—above double-digit BB%. Whitchurch notes that three of Skubal’s six walks came in a single early-April game, so the line may be overly influenced by a tiny recent sample. He thinks the Cardinals’ patience forces at least one four-pitch pass often enough to justify the juice.

Chris Ruffolo closed with a +750 dart on Wilmer Flores to leave the yard. Flores is 7-for-14 lifetime versus Michael Lorenzen with three home runs. Ruffolo highlighted that eight of Lorenzen’s nine homers allowed this season have come on the road, and Tuesday’s start is again away from Kansas City. Combine Lorenzen’s road-splits vulnerability with Flores’s perfect BvP résumé, and Ruffolo believes the payout is worth a shot.

JD Bets warned listeners to leave Tarik Skubal’s strike-out market alone on Tuesday. Books are dangling 6.5 Ks at +130 and even a 7-plus ladder at +140, but JD pointed out that St. Louis owns one of the lowest team strike-out rates in baseball—only three projected hitters whiff above 30%. He walked through Skubal’s recent game log, noting that his ceiling performances came against the Angels and Red Sox, two top-five K clubs, while he managed just five punch-outs versus a low-K Royals squad. JD’s spreadsheet shows several Cardinals right-handers with strong career numbers against Skubal, making the margin razor thin. With Detroit laying –180 and a modest 7.5 total, JD concluded the line is “low for a reason” and advised bettors to skip the prop rather than force action.

Razzle called Tarik Skubal ‘arguably the best pitcher in baseball right now’ and locked him into cash and GPP builds. His 7.5 K-prop sits two full strikeouts above anyone else, and he carries –192 money-line support with only a 7.5 game total in spacious Busch Stadium. Skubal has posted double-digit Ks in three of his last four, averaging 95 pitches, and even in a 5-ER dud at Boston still produced 21.5 DK points. Razzle will eat the salary and build around him.

Steve Merrill advised laying -1.5 runs with Detroit at roughly -110 instead of paying the hefty -190 money-line. He sees a decisive pitching edge with Tarik Skubal against Erick Fedde and a shaky St. Louis bullpen. Merrill reminded listeners that Detroit still owns the best record in baseball—four more wins than any AL club and two more than any NL team—even after Monday’s 11-4 loss. Because the Tigers are on the road, they are guaranteed a ninth-inning at-bat if trailing, which statistically boosts a favorite’s ability to cover the run line. Merrill framed tonight as a classic ‘bounce-back’ for a strong team with its ace on the mound and recommended the run line to turn an expensive favorite into a pick-em-price wager.

Ben Stevens urged bettors to treat the Detroit Tigers as bona-fide World Series contenders and jump on their current prices (+450 AL pennant, 13-1 World Series). Detroit owns MLB’s best record at 31-17 and a +80 run differential, giving them a four-and-a-half-game cushion in the AL Central and a three-game edge for the league’s top seed. Stevens emphasized frontline pitching: reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal and rejuvenated Jack Flaherty form a playoff-caliber 1-2 combo that few American League clubs can match. He also noted the broader landscape—only three AL teams are shorter than 20-1 to win it all, signaling a comparatively shallow field versus the NL. Locking up the division at a current –260 price should grant Detroit home-field and a bye to the ALDS, further enhancing their odds. With a balanced lineup that has scored 257 runs and a front office likely to add bullpen help at the deadline, Stevens expects Detroit’s futures to keep shortening throughout the summer.

Guy Boston said to lay the Tigers first-five run line (-0.5, around ‑135) with Tarik Skubal on the hill in St. Louis. Boston expects another dominant outing from the left-hander, noting that Skubal’s 1.97 ERA is backed by a 30% strike-out rate and .263 xwOBA allowed. He contrasted that with Eric Fetty, who has spun back-to-back scoreless starts—but against Washington and Pittsburgh—calling it prime regression bait. Fetty relies on a 53% sinker usage, and Detroit sits top-10 in run value versus sinkers while holding plus marks against his slider and cutter as well. Boston added that the Tigers have been exactly 50-50 on the F5 run line in Skubal starts but believes the matchup tips the scales: Detroit projects at least two early runs while Skubal works five innings of 0–1-run ball. He dismissed a full-game play because the Tigers bullpen has wobbled on the road, making the F5 the cleaner angle.

Donnie Rightside said Detroit is a straight-forward money-line play at –186 because Tarik Skubal has morphed into an untouchable buzz-saw. Over his last 30 days the left-hander has faced 118 batters while walking fewer than 2 % and striking out an absurd 39 %. Opponents own a microscopic .063 ISO and .231 wOBA in that span, and the underlying metrics (1.32 FIP, 1.56 xFIP) say it is no fluke. Donnie noted Skubal has logged at least eight Ks in four straight starts and still carries a 2.67 ERA for the month even after a rare five-run hiccup against Boston. The matchup sets up even better because winds are projected 15 mph out to right at 74 °F and St. Louis is loaded with left-handed bats that historically struggle against elite lefty velocity. On the other side Eric Fedde’s 3.45 ERA is propped up by a 4.84 xFIP, and Detroit’s left-handed sticks (Kerry Carpenter, Colt Keith, Riley Greene, Zach McKinstry, Trey Sweeney) all slug right-handed pitching. With Skubal on the hill and platoon advantages throughout the lineup, Rightside expects “a walk-away easy victory” for Detroit and is comfortable laying the chalk or using the Tigers as a parlay anchor.

Malcom Bamford would rather isolate Detroit’s offense than lay the steep –170 moneyline, playing the Tigers team-total OVER. He trusts Tarik Skubal to keep St. Louis quiet (0.93 WHIP on the season) but questions whether Erick Feddy’s surface numbers are fool’s gold. Under the hood Feddy carries a 4.92 xERA and 5.13 FIP, suggesting negative regression is imminent. Detroit quietly leads the NL Central by five games while averaging 5.4 runs per contest. Bamford expects bookmakers to set the TT around 4 and is happy to play 4.5, believing Detroit’s left-hand heavy lineup will expose Feddy’s smoke-and-mirrors profile.

Bryce Hunt recommended a one-unit play on the Tigers First Five –0.5 in St. Louis. He trusts Tarik Skubal, whose strikeout rate has rebounded above 33% in May, once again putting him on a Cy Young trajectory. Skubal’s fastball velocity remains up a tick from last year and his changeup is generating a 20% swinging-strike rate. On the other side is Eric Fedde; although Fedde rides into this start fresh off a complete-game shutout, Hunt called the performance an outlier, pointing to a sub-20% K-rate and a .310 xwOBA against. Detroit’s top-of-the-order bats are heating up—Hunt highlighted Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson’s hard-hit rates north of 45%—and the Cardinals own just a 90 wRC+ versus lefties. Given the pitching mismatch and lineup form, Hunt expects Detroit to be leading after five and is willing to lay the half run.

Drew Martin laid the -1.5 on Detroit at +100, emphasizing a massive starting-pitching gap between Tarik Scoobal and Eric Fedde. Even after a merely average outing last time out, Scoobal owns a ridiculous 42-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his last four starts and fronts a first-place Tigers club sporting a +87 run differential. Fedde’s surface numbers look fine, but Martin pointed out pronounced reverse splits: hitters’ OPS is more than 100 points higher when he pitches at Busch Stadium. Offensively, St. Louis scored only three runs combined in its Saturday/Sunday games and now draws the hotter, more balanced Detroit lineup and the deeper bullpen. With every box — starter, bats, and relief — checked in Detroit’s favor, Martin prefers the run line to the pricey -165 moneyline.

Kenny G sided with Detroit at even money (+100), calling the Tigers the better club in every phase right now. Rookie Jackson Jobe is 3-0 despite a 4.32 ERA, and Kenny believes the underlying stuff is electric— 7 K in 5.2 IP versus Boston last week— with walk issues (5 BB) the only red flag. He trusts the league’s 5th-best bullpen (2.98 ERA) to cover any early exit. Offensively, Detroit ranks 4th in runs, 5th in batting average, 6th in OBP (.334) and top-5 in slugging, a stark contrast to Toronto’s 22nd-place run production. Jose Berrios owns a 4.33 ERA and has issued 15 walks in his last five outings; Kenny expects the patient Tigers lineup to exploit that control trouble. Toronto’s pen (3.88 ERA) sits in the bottom half and has blown four saves in the past two weeks. With Detroit 13-10 on the road and 16-7 to the over in those games, Kenny projects enough run support for Jobe and sees plus money as a “must-play” unless Sunday weirdness convinces you to fade him.

It's The Final Round likes Kerry Carpenter as a value dart: he’s 2-for-3 with a homer (.667) off Jose Berrios and has hits in four of his last five games, making him a sneaky total bases or HR prop sprinkle.

Servodidio advised taking Over 8.5 runs (-108) and Over 4.5 runs in the first five innings (-118) for Sunday’s Tigers-Blue Jays matchup. He pointed to both lineups demolishing right-handed pitching: Toronto has averaged 6.0 runs per game over its last eight and, in the past two weeks, leads MLB with a .373 wOBA, 144 wRC+, .300 AVG and .197 ISO against righties. Detroit isn’t far behind, posting a season-long .335 wOBA and 118 wRC+ vs RHP and an even better .368 wOBA, 141 wRC+ and .208 ISO the last two weeks. The pitching matchup also leans to offense: rookie Jackson Jobe has a 4.32 ERA overall but a 6.11 ERA and 5.71 FIP on the road with a 13.5% walk rate, while Jose Berrios owns a 5.65 ERA at Rogers Centre with a 4.97 FIP, 4.87 xERA, 10.8% walk rate and 11.5% barrel rate. Historical trends back it up—the over has cashed in 14 of Detroit’s last 18 games and the Jays are 11-2 to the over in the past two weeks—so Servodidio expects a shootout after Saturday’s 2-1 outlier.

Morgan pinpointed Carpenter ($4,500) as a bargain bat because the Detroit slugger owns a .515 career SLG (.554 last three seasons) against right-handed pitching. He now faces Jose Berrios, who is sitting on a 4.97 FIP and 1.56 HR/9 in 2025. Morgan notes Comerica’s new shortened fences and Berrios’ declining four-seamer velocity as reasons Carpenter could leave the yard at a sub-$5K salary.

Morgan likes Riley Greene as a mid-tier bat at $3.4k after the outfielder put up a 1.133 OPS and eight of his 11 home runs over the past three weeks. He’ll see Jose Berrios, who owns a 5.65 ERA at Rogers Centre and has allowed a .277 batting average to left-handed hitters this season.

Morgan suggested riding Riley Greene’s hot streak—1.133 OPS over the last three weeks with eight of his 11 homers in that span. Jose Berrios has struggled at Rogers Centre (5.65 home ERA) and is allowing a .277 average to left-handed bats this season. Greene’s $3,400 tag provides mid-tier power at a friendly park against a pitcher who can’t keep the ball in the yard at home.

Mike Maher said fantasy managers should unload Javier Baez after his two-homer, six-RBI night inflated the surface stats. Maher screenshotted Baez’s "dark-blue" Statcast page to show nothing has actually improved—hard-hit, barrel and chase rates all remain bottom-quartile, mirroring the ugly underlying profile that tanked his value the past three seasons. Even when Baez peaked in 2018-19 he routinely over-performed weak batted-ball metrics, so Maher doubts a 31-year-old version suddenly sustains it. He expects pitchers to stop challenging him once the hot streak fades, projecting a rest-of-season line closer to .230 with mid-teens homers and single-digit steals. Because the recent fireworks create sell-window leverage, he’d trade Baez for "anything that actually helps"—a mid-tier closer, back-end SP, or an upside stash—and would especially target managers who are Tigers fans or starving for middle-infield power.

Brad Francis backed the Tigers on the money line, noting Detroit has cashed 12 straight games when listed as a favorite against AL East opponents. He argued the Tigers are “better everywhere” based on season-long metrics and pointed to a clear pitching edge with Jack Flaherty (29.4% K-rate, 1.06 WHIP) squaring off against Bowden Francis, who rarely works past the fifth inning. Given the matchup and Detroit’s current offensive form coming out of Boston, Francis labeled the Tigers the play.

Mark Zinno advised taking the Tigers on the money-line tonight in Detroit, arguing that the starting-pitching matchup finally tilts in their favor. Zinno rattled off a laundry list of ugly underlying numbers for Toronto’s spot starter Bowden Francis – a .311 xBA (bottom 5% of MLB), .383 xwOBA (bottom 5%), bottom-5 hard-hit rate and an xERA north of 6.0. By contrast, Zinno noted that Jack Flaherty, while sporting a 5.57 road ERA and allowing at least four earned in three straight, is still the more talented arm and is overdue for positive regression after Detroit has dropped six consecutive Flaherty starts. He also highlighted a rest advantage (Tigers were idle Thursday while the Jays played) that often shows up on Friday slates. Zinno’s bottom line: fade Francis’s awful peripherals and back Flaherty to bounce back with a rested Detroit lineup.

Lonte Smith is stacking Tigers –130 with the Over 8.5 at even money. He cited Bowden Francis’ brutal recent stretch – 2-3 with a 6.50 ERA over his last five, six-plus hits allowed in four straight – running into a Detroit lineup batting nearly .300 over its last 10 and scoring eight runs per nine in that span. While Jack Flaherty has struggled himself (five straight losses, ERA north of six, eight homers surrendered in five starts), Smith expects moderate improvement against a Jays offense he still deems "inconsistent" despite winning five of six. Both clubs are 9-1 to the over in their last 10, and Detroit already owns one of MLB’s best road OPS figures. With two shaky starters and red-hot bats, Smith projects something like a 6-4 Tigers win and is happy to pocket plus money on the total along with the Detroit side.

Scott Reichel grabbed Detroit at –130, calling the Tigers “simply the better team” while labeling Toronto a .500 club for good reason. He acknowledged neither starter has dazzled (Jack Flaherty 1-5, 4.61 ERA; Bowden Francis 2-5, 5.40 ERA) but trusts Detroit’s balanced lineup that’s raced to a 29-15 record and owns his current pick to win the AL. Reichel stressed that Toronto’s sweep of Seattle was more about the Mariners’ inconsistency than any Jays surge and sees Detroit’s deeper lineup and superior bullpen making –130 a bargain.

The tout also liked the full-game Over 8.5. Detroit squares off with Bowden Francis (6.52 home ERA) while Jack Flaherty sits at 5.57 away. Detroit has gone over in four of its last five, averaging 10+ runs in that stretch, and Toronto has cleared the total in three of its last five thanks to pitching woes. Detroit is batting .286 with runners in scoring position and Toronto hits .254 at Rogers Centre. Historical matchups between similar lineups have routinely topped the same number, so the tout expects another shoot-out.

Kenny G circled the OVER 8.5 runs in Tigers-Blue Jays as a bet-worthy spot. Both starters are in poor form: Jack Flaherty is 1-5 with a 4.61 ERA and has allowed at least four earned in three straight, while Bowden Francis sits at 5.40 and has surrendered three-plus earned in four consecutive starts, including a seven-spot versus Boston. Toronto’s bullpen is mediocre (4.07 ERA) and Detroit’s elite 2.86 mark may not matter early if Flaherty implodes again. Offensively, Detroit has exploded from last year’s doldrums to rank second in MLB in runs, fifth in average and sixth in OBP, plating 6, 10 and 14 runs in its last three. The Jays have been inconsistent but still carry a 22-point jump in OPS at home and are 12-9 to the OVER in Toronto. Road/home splits for both clubs are over-friendly (Tigers 15-7, Jays 12-9). Given two hittable arms, a retractable-roof hitter’s park and surging Detroit bats, Kenny expects a slugfest and prefers the total to a side, though he did give a slight lean to the Tigers’ moneyline.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed Detroit to win and cover the run-line in Toronto. The Tigers sit at 29-15, have won eight of their last ten overall, and are 7-1 in their last eight road games. Offensively they rank second in MLB scoring and carry a .262 road batting average. They draw Bowden Francis and his ugly 6.52 home ERA, a matchup Detroit is expected to exploit. Against the number, Detroit has covered 59% of all games and 70% when listed as an away favorite, while Toronto has covered only 50% of its games as a home dog. Detroit is also on a three-game winning streak and covers 70% of division contests. All of that convinced the tout the Tigers are the sharper side.

Eric Lindquist advised taking the Detroit Tigers first-five-innings moneyline on Friday against Toronto. He argued that Jack Flaherty is "the better pitcher of the two" compared with Bowden Francis, citing Flaherty’s improved command and reduced hard contact. Francis, meanwhile, is "giving up high, far contact," a problem against Detroit’s lefty power core of Kerry Carpenter (52% hard-hit rate), the recently returned Riley Greene, and the resurgent Spencer Torkelson. Lindquist also referenced Javier Baez’s recent "renaissance" as further lineup depth. Because Toronto’s bullpen grades out better than Detroit’s, Lindquist prefers isolating the starting-pitching edge in the first-five market. He is comfortable playing the Tigers at plus money and would still lay up to –115 if overnight steam shortens the price.