Kenny G preferred the Astros at –115, pointing to Houston’s current four-game winning streak and a 20-10 record at Minute Maid Park. He is comfortable fading Shane Baz, whose ERA has crept near 5.00 after four rocky outings this month despite a bounce-back against Toronto. Although Ryan Gusto has only a 4.58 ERA, Kenny trusts the Astros’ elite bullpen (2.67 ERA) to shorten the game and likes how the offense has quietly averaged 5.8 runs over its last six contests. With Tampa ranking just 19th in scoring and 21st in slugging, Kenny believes Houston’s combination of home field, hotter bats, and shutdown relief makes the modest juice playable in what oddsmakers rate a virtual coin flip.

Kenny G leaned toward the Under 8 in Rays–Astros, citing multiple run-suppressing factors. Tampa’s bullpen is a weapon (3.26 ERA, 5th in MLB) and Houston’s relief corps is even better (2.67 ERA, 2nd). Starter Shane Baz just posted 5.2 innings of one-run ball versus Toronto and, despite a 4.90 ERA, still flashes frontline stuff. Ryan Gusto owns a 4.58 ERA but has yielded only two earned runs in his last 4⅓ innings; Kenny noted both lineups are league-average or worse—Rays 19th in runs, Astros 16th. Unders have cashed in 11 of 18 Rays road games (11-7) and 17 of 30 Astros home dates (17-12-1). With two quality bullpens, inconsistent yet capable starters, and no juggernaut offenses, Kenny found value on a low-scoring script at the current total.

Just A Bet Outside advised betting the full-game over 8 runs at ‑115 (FanDuel) for Thursday’s Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays matchup. He pointed to two faltering starters: Shane Baz has surrendered 22 earned runs in 25.1 May innings (7.82 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, 11 % walk rate) while allowing 7-12 baserunners in each of his last five starts; spot-starter Ryan Gusto has not topped 79 pitches this month and owns a 9.72 ERA and 2.76 WHIP, with bottom-quartile Statcast marks (23rd percentile hard-hit, 35th barrel, 7th exit velo). Houston’s offense crushes right-handed pitching at Minute Maid Park, ranking 2nd in home WRC+ over the past month (.317 AVG, .477 SLG, 5.0+ runs per game in their last 20 at home). Tampa Bay’s bats have perked up as well, scoring 4+ runs in six of their last ten road games and posting 13, 7, and 5 runs in three of the last four overall. Both bullpens are exploitable—Tampa’s unit is overworked, and Houston could be without closer Josh Hader after a 22-pitch outing, leaving them thin beyond their top two arms. With a hitter-friendly park, two struggling starters, and at least one elite lineup, the host expects a 5-4 or higher final and likes the push safety at eight runs, staking a half-unit on the over.

Cash Out Sports Picks laid the moneyline with Houston in the series opener. The Astros are 20-10 at home and raking at Minute Maid Park (.280 average, 142 runs, 77 XBH). Rookie Ryan Gusto draws a modest familiarity edge, while Tampa’s Shane Baz makes only his fourth road start and has surrendered 22 runs in his last 25.1 innings overall. Houston has taken the first game in three straight series and owns recent revenge motivation after losing two of three in Tampa last week. Given the Rays’ .235 road average, he sided with the Astros.

He played the OVER in Rays-Astros. Both clubs enter hot — Tampa has scored 5+ in three of its last four, and Houston bats .280 at home. Baz has yielded 3+ earned in four of five outings; Gusto allowed seven earned just two starts ago and rarely works deep, exposing a 5.46 ERA, .287 BAA bullpen at home. With two shaky starters, red-hot offenses, and a hitter-friendly forecast, he expects runs in bunches.

Dylan Rockford made the Astros run-line (–1.5 at +175) his favorite under-dog play for Thursday’s Rays–Astros matchup. Rockford called Tampa starter Shane Baz a full-fade right now, noting Baz has surrendered at least one homer in eight of ten outings and owns a 9.72 ERA in May with a 13.3 % walk rate. He expects Houston’s deep right-hand–heavy lineup—Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman—to punish Baz early and then tack on against a Rays bullpen that has logged the 5th-most innings this month. On the other side, Rockford acknowledged Ronel “Gusto” Blanco is inconsistent but trusts him more than Baz and pointed to Houston’s top-3 defensive efficiency as protection if Blanco pitches to contact. With Minute Maid’s roof likely closed (the ball carries better), he projected a 6-3 type game and recommended any plus-money run-line price down to +160.

He also played the full-game over, noting Oakland is 5-2 to the over in its last seven and Houston is 6-4 to the over in the last ten head-to-head meetings. Even if McCullers contains the A’s, Severino’s form and Oakland’s 6.07 team ERA on the road should allow the Astros to clear the total almost by themselves.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Astros on the money line. Houston is 7-2 in its last nine at Minute Maid against Oakland while the Athletics have gone just 3-7 as road underdogs. Oakland has won only once since May 14 and sends Luis Severino, who has yielded 25 hits and 14 runs over his previous 22 innings. Lance McCullers Jr. is trending the opposite direction, surrendering only two earned in his last 8.1 frames. With Houston’s offense heating up and Oakland floundering, the tout believes the Astros roll at home.

Rockford played the Astros first-five team total under, banking on Luis Severino’s surprising road form. The former Yankee has a 0.72 ERA in four road starts for Oakland and consistently works into the sixth inning. Lance McCullers Jr. has been inconsistent at Minute Maid, and Rockford’s model showed Houston should be –130 rather than the –150 posted. Because he can’t trust the punch-less A’s offense to cash a side, he expects Severino to suppress the Astros to one run or fewer through five.

Cooper emphasized that Houston owns the slate’s highest stack optimal rate (17.95%) thanks to bargain salaries across the lineup—Jose Altuve at $3.9K, Jeremy Pena at $4K, Jake Meyers at $3.5K and Yainer Diaz at $3.4K. With nearly a five-run implied total, the Astros are projected to be the most popular stack, but the salary relief makes them hard to ignore. Cooper advised either embracing Houston while getting contrarian at pitcher or fading them entirely for leverage, noting that many profitable builds will start with an Astros five-man core.

Cooper highlighted Hunter Brown as the premium arm offering positive leverage. Brown faces an Oakland lineup with a minuscule 3.06 implied total and owns the slate’s highest optimal percentage at 31%, yet projects for only 27% ownership. With a strike-out happy Athletics roster in a pitcher-friendly environment, Brown brings the highest raw projection on the slate. Cooper views him as the ideal anchor in GPP builds, especially paired with another contrarian SP or an off-the-board stack.

Mills Young recommended Hunter Brown over 6.5 strikeouts, projecting the Astros right-hander for 8 Ks. Brown has cleared 6.5 in 60% of his trips to the mound, and Young framed tonight as a classic bounce-back after Brown’s worst outing of the year in which he was tagged for homers and failed to hit his prop. Facing an Oakland lineup that has struggled to make contact, the bettor consensus leans over and Young is riding with them.

Kingpin Sports laid ‑1.5 with Houston, praising Hunter Brown’s 6-3 record and 2.04 ERA. They expect the Astros’ bats to jump J.P. Sears (4-4, 4.00) early and let Brown dominate from the mound.

Eric Lindquist targeted an Isaac Paredes home-run prop, pointing to new swing-path data that shows Paredes leads all hitters in pull percentage with a 15-degree average attack direction. That extreme pull angle pairs with his 46% hard-hit rate to maximize home-run probability whenever he faces pitchers who work on the inner half. Lindquist said the Astros’ analytical staff is well aware of Paredes’ tendencies, but the underlying metrics still give Paredes the highest barrel projection on Tuesday’s slate at his current +420 price. With the game in a power-friendly park and the opposing starter lacking strikeout stuff, Lindquist labeled the Paredes bomb a worthwhile one-unit stab despite generally avoiding short-odds homer bets.

Kenny G labeled Houston –210 his potential “lock of the day.” He expects Hunter Brown to rebound after his lone clunker of 2025 (5 IP, 5 ER at Tampa). Prior to that, the 25-year-old righty was 6-2 with a 1.59 ERA, including an eight-inning gem in Arlington. Oakland provides the perfect get-right spot: the A’s bullpen is third-worst (6.02 ERA) and their once-surprising offense has cooled, posting just 3.8 runs per game over the last week. Meanwhile the Astros own MLB’s second-best relief corps (2.97 ERA) and are 18-10 at Minute Maid Park while cashing unders 17 of 28 times, illustrating how well the staff is throwing. With Brown’s strike-throwing, a rested high-leverage bullpen and an opponent leaking runs late, Kenny is comfortable swallowing the hefty price instead of fooling with the 7.5 total.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Astros to win and cover, pointing to a perfect storm of Houston edges. The Astros are 18-5 at Dakin Park (tied for most home wins in MLB) and are slashing .280/.343/.455 as a team at home compared to Oakland’s .244 road average. Hunter Brown has allowed only two earned runs across 18.2 Dakin Park innings this year and dominated the A’s last season in an 8-1 victory. Four of Houston’s last seven wins overall – and each of their last five against Oakland – came by three-plus runs. With the A’s coming off an 11-game skid and producing three runs or fewer in seven of their last 12, the tout expects another multi-run Houston result.

Peterson also bet Over 8, projecting 8.7 runs. He expects Seattle’s top-10 road offense to rough up Colton Gordon, while Houston should scratch across runs against Castillo’s diminished strikeout stuff and a bullpen that has been stretched the last two days.

Mac Douglass highlighted that Dimers’ predictive engine ran thousands of simulations on Mariners-Astros and spit out a 62% likelihood that Houston covers the +1.5 run line at -146 on FanDuel. The model assigns a 2.7% long-term edge to the wager, making it the highest-probability play on Sunday’s slate. Douglass noted that Dimers Pro users typically hunt for any edge above 2%, so this qualifies as actionable value.

It's The Final Round loves Kyle Tucker today versus Nick Lodolo. Lodolo’s primary offerings line up perfectly with Tucker’s strengths: curveball (41% usage, .333 BA allowed) where Tucker is batting .333, sinker (.412 allowed) where Tucker sits at .429, and four-seam (.375 allowed) that Tucker also bats .375 against. Tucker has hits in 6 of his last 8 games and sports a 38.4% launch-angle sweet spot (50th in MLB). Prop history: 13-of-20 on 0.5-hit line, 6-of-10 on 1.5 H+R+RBI, 4-of-5 on 0.5 runs, 5-of-7 on singles. The tout thinks Tucker is ideal for hit-parlay legs or a run prop, while cautioning that recent total-base results (3-of-10) make that market less attractive.

Kenny G said the best value in Mariners-Astros is the Under 7.5. He pointed out Seattle’s young starter is in peak form after blanking San Diego for seven innings and the club has gone 5-0 in his last five outings. Houston counters with Framber Valdez, who tossed six scoreless frames against the Mariners on 5/8 and owns a 3.57 ERA overall. Both bullpens are trustworthy—Seattle’s relief corps has trimmed its ERA to 3.41 (8th in MLB) while Houston’s sits at an elite 2.86, second best in baseball. Offensively, the Astros remain the ‘problem child,’ ranking 19th in runs and 22nd in slugging, and have scored four or fewer in four of their past six. Seattle’s lineup is improved but still profiles league-average; they are 14-11 to the under on the road while Houston is 14-11 to the under at Minute Maid. With two in-form starters, top-10 pens and recent 2-1 history between Valdez and Seattle, Kenny projected another 3-2 or 4-2 type game and advised locking in Under 7.5 at standard juice.

Reichel’s favorite angle for Mariners-Astros is the Under 7.5. Bryan Wu has been a revelation at 5-1 with a 2.65 ERA, and opponents own just a .254 OBP against his exploding four-seam. Framber Valdez has been even better inside Minute Maid Park, allowing five runs total over his last three starts and going at least seven innings each time. Both lineups sit middle of the pack in wRC+ versus left-handed pitching, and Houston’s aggressive approach (28th in walk rate) plays into Wu’s attack-the-zone style. Reichel projected each starter to work into the seventh, praised both bullpens’ recent form (sub-3.40 ERA the past two weeks) and forecast a 3-2 finish.

Vreeland also advised taking the NRFI at -140 in Mariners vs Astros. He noted Seattle has cooled off with just 13 total runs over its last four games (3.25 per game) and now runs into Framber Valdez, who has struck out 22 batters in his last 22 innings while sporting a 2.05 ERA in that stretch. Houston’s lineup has been the league’s worst at plating first-inning runs (0.22 per game), and Bryan Woo’s 2.65 ERA plus three outings of one run or fewer in his last four starts gives Vreeland confidence the Astros will stay quiet early. Combining Valdez’s form, Woo’s consistency, and historically poor first-inning production from Houston, he expects another scoreless opening frame.

Joe Jensen said the best way to attack Saturday’s Mariners-Astros clash is the Under 7.5 at ‑110. He pointed to a true ace-versus-ace setup: Bryan Woo owns a 5-1 record, 2.65 ERA, and a microscopic 0.87 WHIP, allowing two runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts, while Framber Valdez counters with a 3.57 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and his usual ground-ball rate that keeps the ball in the park. Both bullpens are elite (Seattle 3rd in ERA at 2.78, Houston 5th at 3.10), and recent series history backs a low total—Unders are 6-2 in the Mariners’ last eight divisional games and 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these clubs. Daikin Park has played neutral this season, weather will be 75° with little wind, and the market has already driven the number from 8.5 to 7.5. Jensen summed it up: with two pitchers who limit hard contact and two top-five relief units, runs will be at a premium.

Marcus prefers Framber Valdez ($8,900) over the other top-tier pitchers because the Mariners have fanned 22.4% of their plate appearances over the last 30 days, the highest K-rate among the three featured opponents. Valdez sits between Michael King and Bryan Woo in salary but carries the friendliest matchup, giving him the best combination of floor and ceiling for cash games or single-entry builds.

Lonte Smith targeted the Over 8.5 in Seattle–Houston, citing two overmatched starters and travel-worn bullpens. Emerson Hancock sports a 6.21 ERA and has surrendered at least three runs in all four road turns, while Astros rookie Spencer Gusto was banished to relief duty after giving up seven earned in 2.1 innings his last start and now re-enters the rotation. Seattle’s offense quietly owns a top-10 road wRC+ and has slugged .450 away from T-Mobile Park, and Houston still ranks fifth in hard-hit percentage despite a middling overall record. Smith also leaned toward Seattle at even money because Hancock’s splits improve on the road (two earned or fewer in four straight) and the Mariners’ bullpen sits third in xFIP, whereas Houston’s late-inning corps has the sixth-worst ERA since May 1. Final score forecast: 6-4 either way, enough to clear the total.

The tout played the full-game UNDER, noting the clubs averaged just 7.7 total runs in their first series and split the O/U 1-1-1. Seattle’s bullpen has held opponents to one run or fewer in six of the last eight contests, and Houston’s bats have produced four runs or fewer in five straight. The Mariners are hitting only .236 as a team, the Astros .247 with 20 fewer homers than Seattle. Both sides have gone under in four of their previous five games entering Friday. Given Hancock’s road form, Guston’s short leash followed by Houston’s above-average bullpen, and two lineups sputtering with runners in scoring position, Cash Out Sports Picks expects a tight, low-scoring affair.

Mike Noblin laid the -117 with Houston, saying Gusto’s 94-mph fastball, cutter, and sweeper are more than enough to tame a Mariners lineup that has cratered to 26th in WRC+ over the past two weeks and features five everyday hitters striking out at least 25% of the time. He pointed out that Houston’s bats have rebounded to 8th in WRC over the last 14 days and expects Jose Altuve to get rolling soon. Noblin also cited a decisive bullpen advantage for the Astros and advised bettors to lock in the number before the market fully prices in Seattle’s slump.

Garofolo highlighted a second playable angle in Mariners-Astros: Houston to win outright at +118 on BetMGM. Dimers’ simulations give the Astros a 47.9% chance to cash, 2.0 points higher than the 45.9% implied probability of the price, resulting in a 2.2% long-term edge according to the model.

Dave Garofolo said Dimers’ predictive analytics model ran thousands of simulations for Thursday’s Mariners-Astros matchup and spit out a 61% success rate for Houston +1.5 runs at -142 on DraftKings. With the implied probability on that price sitting around 58.7%, the model shows a 2.3% positive edge, making the run-line the highest-graded wager on the slate.

Peterson grabbed the Astros at +121 (makes them +111) and played Over 8.5 (projects 8.8). Lance McCullers Jr. owns a 7.88 ERA through three shaky starts, logging just eight total innings, while George Kirby is taking the mound for the first time all year after a two-month IL stint and compiled a 7.20 ERA in three AAA rehab outings. With two starters unlikely to work deep and bullpens expected early, Peterson predicts enough traffic to push the game past 8.5 and sees value in Houston’s plus-money price given Kirby’s uncertain form.

Dylan Rockford said bettors should grab the Astros moneyline at anything shorter than -150 behind Hunter Brown. Rockford highlighted Brown's 1.43 ERA and 0.83 WHIP over his last three starts, including eight scoreless innings and nine strikeouts in a duel with Jacob deGrom. He contrasted that with Taj Bradley's volatility, noting Bradley was tagged for five earned at Miami and sits at a 4.97 season ERA. Rockford also pointed to Tampa Bay's 11-18 home record and Houston's top-10 wRC+ lineup as further edges. With the clear starting-pitching advantage and the Rays' struggles at Tropicana, he labeled Houston a buy at the current -138 to -140 price.

Eric Lindquist recommended taking the Astros –1.5 at +125 in the Tampa matinee. He likes how Hunter Brown is trending—sub-30% hard-hit rate and a 32.2% strike-out rate—calling him “way better than the average pitcher walking into Tampa.” On the other side, Taj Bradley’s punch-out numbers have cratered to 19.2% and he is surrendering power to right-handed bats. Lindquist added that a 1 p.m. first pitch in humid, outdoor Tampa should sap Bradley’s stuff even more. With Houston stacking dangerous RH hitters (Walker, Peña, Meyers, Paredes) against a vulnerable Bradley, he sees clear value on the plus-money run line.

Michael Savio recommended Astros -1.5 at +118 behind Hunter Brown, who has emerged as one of baseball’s best pitchers. Brown sits at 6-2 with a 1.43 ERA and microscopic 0.83 WHIP; he’s allowed more than one earned run only once in his last seven starts and sports a 1.83 ERA in May. Tampa’s offense remains uneven despite Brandon Lowe’s return—four regulars are still hitting below .200 over the past week. Savio also pointed out Houston’s gaudy 1.130 OPS against Taj Bradley. The 24-year-old Rays right-hander has been erratic (3-3, 4.80 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) and is coming off a brutal four-inning, five-run outing with six hits and three walks. Given Brown’s dominance, Tampa’s cold bats, and Bradley’s struggles, Savio expects Houston to win comfortably and cover the run line.

Boston likes Houston at +104 and their team total over 4.0 against Zack Littell and a punch-less Rays offense. Tampa struggles badly versus lefties (.271 wOBA, 28th) and draws southpaw Brandon Walter making his first MLB start in two years. While Littell owns decent expected numbers (xBA .240, xwOBA .275 in 49 PA vs Astros), Boston trusts an Astros lineup that has scored four or more in three of its last four and is finally showing consistency. With Tampa’s sticks offering little margin for error—outside one 10-run spike last week—Boston projects Houston to win a 5-3 type contest and sees value any time their potent core is catching plus money.

Cash Out Sports Picks took Houston on the moneyline, citing rookie southpaw Colton Gordon versus a Rays lineup batting a miserable .203 against left-handed pitching. The Astros have won four of the last six head-to-heads, and Tampa is just 3-8 when favored at home versus AL opponents. Given the Rays’ continued issues versus southpaws and Houston’s recent success in the matchup, the tout believes the road underdog is mis-priced.

JD Bets locked in the Houston Astros moneyline for Sunday’s series finale in Arlington. He noted that Houston’s offense still "statistically better with the bats" over its rolling 10-game sample, while Texas continues to scuffle in batting average, hits and doubles, relying on walks to generate runs. On the mound the Astros hold a modest edge: Framber Valdez has averaged 2.3 earned runs over his last five starts and cleared 2+ earned runs in only two of those, whereas rookie Jack Leiter sits at 2.6 earned runs and faces MLB’s 8th-best lineup at drawing walks. Valdez’s own walk prop (1.5) was passed on because it offered no margin for error, but JD sees the matchup advantages as strong enough to back Houston straight up. He also cited the Astros’ motivation after losing Saturday, and the controlled indoor environment at Globe Life Field that removes weather volatility. All told, he sees Houston as the superior side both at the plate and on the bump and is riding the Astros moneyline.

Shubham Soni called Jeremy Pena a live +550 longshot to leave the yard. Pena is quietly batting above .300 with a balanced power-speed skill set, and he faces Jack Leiter, who has been hittable with a 4.34 ERA. Although Pena’s barrel and hard-hit metrics are merely average, Soni emphasized the attractive odds relative to Leiter’s inconsistencies, framing the play as a calculated value swing for bettors hunting upside.

The tout favors the Under as both clubs lack pop (Houston 21st, Texas 25th in slugging) and four of the last five head-to-head meetings have stayed below the total. Houston’s bullpen is elite with a 2.69 ERA, and Texas sits 14th at 3.73. With Eovaldi dealing and McCullers still not in rhythm—and neither lineup producing crooked numbers consistently—the tout expects another classic, low-scoring Texas showdown.

Kenny G called the UNDER 8.5 his favorite angle in Astros-Rangers. Nathan Eovaldi has a 1.78 ERA and has allowed just two earned across his last four starts (28 IP), while Lance McCullors Jr.’s 15.75 ERA is misleading because Houston will give him a quick hook and turn the game over to its elite 2.69-ERA bullpen. Offensively, Texas ranks 26th in runs, 24th in slugging and 27th in OBP, depending almost entirely on its pitching staff. Houston is only 19th in runs and was blanked 1-0 in the series opener. Globe Life Field has been the league’s premier under park (Rangers 18-5 to the under at home). With two top-flight pens, one ace-level starter and two struggling offenses, Kenny expects another tight, low-scoring affair and prefers the total to laying the steep –185 money-line on Texas.

Eric Pathy advised backing the Houston Astros at +160 on the moneyline against the Rangers. He leaned on his personal "Rule of 10," which tells him to fade any team on a five-game winning streak that gets a day off before trying for win No. 6, particularly when that team is a hefty favorite (Texas is −180 here). Pathy believes the travel pause chills momentum and the betting market inflates the price on the hot club, creating value on the underdog Astros.

Just A Bet Outside said Jose Altuve is an elite DFS and prop target tonight because of his video-game history against Nathan Eovaldi. Altuve has faced Eovaldi 36 times and owns 14 hits, seven of which have left the yard, good for a ridiculous .389 AVG, .722 SLG and a homer every 5.1 at-bats. With Eovaldi’s fastball-heavy profile (52% four-seam) playing directly into Altuve’s strength – a .321 xBA and .595 xSLG versus four-seamers this season – the host believes another multi-hit or even long-ball game is firmly in play. Houston’s roof-closed environment adds to the hitting conditions, and the Rangers’ bullpen ranks 27th in xFIP over the past two weeks, giving Altuve extra paths to damage if Eovaldi exits early. The tout recommended sprinkling Altuve HR and using him as a core piece in DFS stacks built around Astros right-handed bats.

For his second slip, B Wade played Jeremy Pena TO RECORD A SINGLE (yes/no market). Pena has produced at least one single in 17 of his last 20 contests and seven of his last 10 road games. Against Friday starter Nathan Eovaldi he owns a .400 average (4-for-10) over the past year, and he’s batting .319 off right-handed pitching overall. Wade called the –145 price tag 'a steal' given the volume of green indicators in Pena’s recent and split-specific numbers.

Eric Lindquist recommended betting Lance McCullers to allow more than 2.5 earned runs in Friday’s start against Texas. He noted that McCullers’ trademark strike-out juice has disappeared—just a 15.4 % K-rate through two outings compared to 26-30 % in his prime—and the veteran was yanked after a seven-run inning last time out. Lindquist pointed out that most of the Rangers’ order is right-handed, the very split McCullers used to dominate, but his sinker/cutter combo is no longer missing bats or limiting hard contact. Because Texas profiles as a top-10 offense versus righties and Houston may monitor McCullers’ workload after multiple injury-plagued seasons, Lindquist expects a short leash that still leaves enough time for three earned runs to cross. He would play the prop to –125 or better.

Peterson grabbed Houston at +163, valuing the Astros only +133. Nathan Eovaldi has opened 2025 with a dazzling 1.76 ERA, but Lance McCullers Jr. gets a huge matchup break facing a Texas lineup that sits 26th in runs per game. Even if McCullers scuffles, Houston can lean on the league’s No. 2 bullpen (2.69 ERA), while Texas brings just the 14th-ranked unit (3.73 ERA). Peterson believes that relief disparity plus a generous price tag makes the Astros the side.

Welsh recommended betting Houston First Five Moneyline at +110 with Hunter Brown opposing Jacob deGrom. Brown owns MLB’s third-best xERA (2.16) and a 32 % strikeout rate, while Texas is missing Corey Seager and has managed just eight runs in its last four games. If the game is tied after five innings the wager pushes, so Welsh views it as low-risk, high-reward exposure to an elite arm facing a slumping, injury-thinned lineup.

Steve Merrill advised betting the Houston Astros team total under 3.5 runs in Thursday’s nationally-televised matchup with the Texas Rangers. He explained that sharp money already hammered the full-game total from 7.5 down to the key number of 7, so the better value now lies in fading Houston’s offense. Merrill trusts Jacob deGrom’s current 2.70 ERA over 43 innings with a 46-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio and noted that the Astros lineup has virtually no exposure to him—collectively just 6-for-27 (.222) in limited head-to-head plate appearances. Meanwhile, the Rangers have seen Hunter Brown three times and scored eight runs off him in 15 innings last season. Houston’s bats have cooled off after a 20-run outburst last week, producing only two and four runs in their last two games, both at home. The Astros are nearly a full run worse on the road and must travel without rest, while Texas’s bullpen has performed better at home. With deGrom’s edge, Houston’s diminished road splits, and a supportive bullpen, Merrill believes the Astros struggle to reach four runs, making the under 3.5 a strong wager.

Polzin advised playing Yordan Alvarez UNDER 7.5 fantasy points on Underdog. Consensus books price Alvarez closer to 6.0 and the projection suite Polzin uses lands at 7.0 even, creating more than a 10% edge to the under. The matchup is a left-on-left spot against a pitcher who deploys a slider 41% of the time—Alvarez’s worst performing pitch this season (.271 xwOBA). Houston’s implied team total has also slid to 4.2 runs after early-morning steam on the under. All told, Polzin sees the Underdog line as simply one point too aggressive.

Osborne took Hunter Brown over 1.5 walks (–135) in Arlington. Brown has issued seven free passes across his last two outings, and control was a problem versus Texas in 2023 when he walked eight hitters in three starts. The Rangers’ revamped lineup under a new hitting coach sports a near-10 % walk rate against right-handed pitching over the past two weeks. Given Brown’s shaky command trend and Texas’ patient approach, Osborne expects at least two walks before the Astros can get him out of the game.

Gianni the Greek believes oddsmakers are overvaluing Jacob deGrom and giving bettors a rare opportunity to back Houston. Using his former-scout grading system he has Hunter Brown ranked as MLB’s No. 1 pitcher and Tarik Skubal No. 2, while deGrom sits around 16th. Offensively he grades the Astros eighth and the Rangers 16th, and rates the bullpens roughly equal. With edges on the mound and at the plate, Gianni suggests Astros moneyline, +1.5 runs, or first-five wagers, and even likes a Texas team-total under in a game he expects to be a low-scoring pitching duel.

Kody Malstrom said the first-inning Under 0.5 runs is worth laying -140 in Astros-Rangers because Hunter Brown is pitching like a Cy Young frontrunner. Brown carries a 1.48 ERA, 0.904 WHIP and 1.85 FIP through eight starts while allowing fewer than one hit per inning, and the Astros defense ranks 5th in Defensive Efficiency to vacuum up the rare balls put in play. On the other side Jacob deGrom owns a 2.72 ERA and 1.023 WHIP, giving Malstrom confidence both offenses will stay quiet early. Texas ranks below league average in total hits, runs, RBIs and OBP, with top-of-order bats Wyatt Langford and Joc Pederson each averaging under one hit per game, so Brown should cruise through his first three outs. Houston’s lineup is just as cold, which boosts deGrom’s NRFI case. Put it together and Malstrom expects a scoreless first inning.

Kenny G advised betting Under 7.5 in Astros-Rangers, framing it as a classic pitcher’s duel. Hunter Brown owns a 2.31 ERA in May with a 29% strike-out rate, while Jacob deGrom has surrendered only six earned runs over his last five outings (2.72 season ERA). Globe Life Field has been a graveyard for scoring—Texas games there are 18-5 to the UNDER, the best home split in MLB. Both line-ups remain below average (Astros 27th, Rangers 27th in runs scored), and each bullpen grades at least serviceable (Astros 3.87 ERA, Rangers 3.73). Given two frontline starters, an under-friendly park, and a modest 7.5 number that originally opened at 7, Kenny expects run production to be at a premium and sees no need to pick a side in what he calls a true coin-flip game.