In his bullpen report, Steven pointed out that the Astros have posted the worst ERA in MLB over the last three weeks and sit in the bottom-seven alongside the Mariners and Rangers. He advised viewers to be wary of full-game unders or Houston moneylines that rely on late-inning relief, recommending opponent team-total overs and live betting fades until the unit shows signs of regression toward its earlier season form.

Steven singled out Yordan Alvarez as a rare left-on-lefty smash candidate Friday, citing Alvarez’s 8-for-21 career record against Tyler Anderson that includes six extra-base hits and three home runs. He reminded viewers Alvarez has long neutralized same-side pitching, making the slugger a strong total-bases prop or DFS spend-up despite the handedness matchup.

Just A Bet Outside placed Jose Altuve at the top of Friday’s "good hitter matchups" list, pointing to Altuve’s 9-for-28 (.321) lifetime line with a homer off Angels south-paw Tyler Anderson. Steven noted the sample includes enough plate appearances to treat the BvP as signal, not noise, and framed Altuve as a logical over-1.5-total-bases play or cornerstone in DFS builds against a left-hander who has struggled with right-handed power this season.

The tout grabbed Houston, arguing that an Angels club fresh off allowing 20 runs to a depleted Rangers lineup is ill-equipped for Minute Maid. Christian Javier is still ramping up, but Los Angeles’ spiral since sweeping the Dodgers and Houston’s razor-thin AL West cushion create a locked-in home focus. The Astros’ bullpen and defensive efficiency widen the margin against an opponent whose pitching staff has unravelled on the road.

Eric Lindquist flagged Jose Altuve as a prime long-ball target Thursday so long as the price is better than +375 (his fair line is +340). Minute Maid Park’s Crawfords Boxes are the shortest porch in baseball to left field, and Colorado starter Kyle Freeland ranks in the worst 10 % of 362 qualified pitchers with a 44.5 % pull rate allowed. Altuve’s own pull mark sits near 55 %, and his pull-plus-air percentage is 24.6 %, red across Lindquist’s custom home-run model. Although Altuve’s underlying power looks modest (85 mph average exit velocity, 30.5 % hard-hit rate), Lindquist reminded listeners that those numbers routinely play up in Houston because of the angle and yard depth. Freeland’s career struggles on the road and the Astros’ lineup construction around pull hitters reinforce the wager. Provided books hang +375 or longer, Altuve is on Lindquist’s card for a dinger.

Zinno played the Rockies-Astros first-five under 4.5, leaning on extreme scoring droughts and pitcher splits. Although Framber Valdez has been knocked around in four straight overall, three of those came on the road; at Minute Maid he sports a 1.85 ERA with a .214 opponent average. The Rockies have produced the fewest road runs in MLB since the All-Star break. Colorado counters with Chase Dollander, whose ERA plummets from 9.88 at Coors to 3.95 away, and opponents hit just .219 off him outside Denver. Houston’s own bats have been ice-cold at home, ranking second-fewest runs in that same span. With both lineups struggling and each starter’s road/home split favoring run suppression, Zinno expects a low-scoring first half.

Eric Lindquist advised betting Jesus Sanchez to record 2-plus total bases at plus money against Houston right-hander Hunter Brown. Lindquist noted that Brown "hasn't exactly been good" and is giving up hard contact in bunches, while Sanchez has been one of Miami's few hitters consistently barreling the baseball. Because books are still hanging a plus sign on the two-base prop, Lindquist views it as a simple value grab—nothing fancy, just betting a hot left-handed bat versus an underperforming pitcher at an actionable price.

Lindquist advised jumping on Christian Walker long-shot homer odds (he saw +650 earlier) against left-hander Cade Povich. He called Povich “terrible to lefties, righties, everybody,” highlighting the rookie’s double-digit barrel rate and mid-90s EV allowed. Although Camden Yards isn’t ideal for right-handed pop after the renovations, Lindquist argued the sheer quality of contact Povich concedes makes Walker’s price too long and expects the number to shorten by first pitch.

Kenny G recommended backing the Houston Astros at the current pick’em price (both clubs –110). He highlighted Jason Alexander’s recent form—3-1 with a 4.74 season ERA, but only four earned runs total over his last four outings, including six strong innings (2 ER, 6 K, 0 BB) versus Baltimore in their previous meeting. Houston’s bullpen remains "pretty solid," while Brandon Young still owns a 5.68 ERA and has never logged eight innings before last week’s outlier shutout of the Astros, a workload Kenny expects to sap him here. He added that the Orioles’ relief corps is "nothing to write home about" and their offense, though hotter, is still just 18th in runs and 24th in OBP. Even with the Astros ice-cold at the plate (two runs in their last four contests), Kenny thinks Alexander plus the better pen tilts a coin-flip line toward Houston and would not fault bettors for putting the Astros on their ticket.

Kenny G advised taking Houston at the pick-em price (-110) behind Jason Alexander. Alexander owns a 3-1 record with a 4.74 ERA but, more importantly, has been excellent over his last four outings against Washington, Miami, New York and Baltimore—throwing six shutout innings with six punch-outs in his most recent start versus these Orioles. He trusts Houston’s still-above-average bullpen more than Baltimore’s and expects regression from Brandon Young, who is 1-6 with a 5.68 ERA and just logged a season-high 8-inning gem against the same Astros. Houston’s bats are ice-cold (only two runs in their last four games, 21st in MLB runs scored), yet Kenny calls the club “due” and sees sufficient edge to side with the road Astros.

Eric Lindquist singled out Jesus Sanchez as his favorite home-run prop in the Astros-Orioles game. Baltimore rookie Brandon Young is giving up a 2.11 expected ISO and striking out only 17 percent of left-handed hitters, a profile Lindquist labeled “home-run-prone.” Houston’s lineup is almost all right-handed, so Sanchez is the lone everyday lefty capable of exploiting that weakness until Yordan Alvarez gets recalled. Lindquist set his break-even price at +360 and advised betting any number above that, expecting the market to open in the low-400s range.

Kenny G recommended a small play on Houston at +120 in Detroit, citing Jack Flaherty’s recent implosions (14 ER in his last 7.1 IP vs Chicago and Minnesota) and Detroit’s shaky bullpen. While rookie Spencer Arrighetti carries a 6.38 ERA, Kenny believes his last outing—five innings of one-hit, two-run ball—signals an upward turn the Astros desperately need with Seattle closing in the AL West. Houston’s lineup has cratered (shut out twice in three games vs Baltimore), but Detroit’s bats have been similarly inconsistent and rank middle-of-the-pack in average and OBP. He expects Houston’s deeper lineup and superior bullpen track record to outweigh recent form, making the plus-money price worth a nibble.

While not an official ‘pin comment’ play, Kenny G still prefers Astros –140. He admitted frustration with Houston’s recent slump but trusts Jason Alexander’s current form—four quality starts in his last five including shutouts of Miami and New York—and cannot pass on fading Cade Povich, who owns a 2-6 record and has only three appearances since the IL. Baltimore’s bullpen is bottom-five by ERA, whereas Houston’s remains solid overall despite a rough week. Minute Maid Park has been kind to the Astros (37-25) and profitable for unders, indicating low-scoring, bullpen-driven games that favor Alexander over Povich. Kenny therefore leans Astros to right the ship at home.

Ruffolo bet the Astros straight up, calling Orioles starter Popic untrustworthy and labeling Baltimore’s lineup 'extremely under-whelming' over the last month. With Houston’s bats remaining dangerous and Baltimore floundering at the plate, he sees value in siding with the Astros despite the road setting.

Cash Out Sports Picks endorsed the Astros money-line, noting that Friday’s near-perfect outing by Baltimore’s Brandon Young felt fluky. Houston faces right-hander Keegan Alexander, who has surrendered only two runs across his last three starts, while Baltimore struggles versus right-handed pitching (.243 average) and scores just 4.24 runs per game. The tout views this as a classic bounce-back for Houston to level the series.

Guy Boston Sports said that if the probables hold—Framber Valdez versus Brandon Young—he’ll be on the Astros moneyline and likely their team total over. Valdez returns home after two rocky road starts; he owns a sub-3 ERA at Minute Maid and faces an Orioles lineup that has scored four or fewer in seven of its last ten. Young profiles as an over-matched spot arm, further tilting the matchup. The tout called it a classic bounce-back ‘hammer home’ spot for both Valdez and Houston’s bats.

Kenny G labeled Houston –235 as a possible "lock of the day." Framber Valdez (11-5, 2.97 ERA) is "due to bounce back" and gets a lifeless Orioles lineup now 21st in runs and 22nd in average. Baltimore counters with Brandon Young (0-1, 6.70 ERA) plus a 4.76 bullpen ERA, one of MLB’s worst. Houston’s pen is fifth best at 3.54, Minute Maid sees them 37-25, and both clubs trend under (Baltimore 39-20-2 under on road, Houston 33-27-2 under at home). Kenny expects the Astros to cruise and keeps an eye on Valdez’s rebound.

It's The Final Round noted Carlos Correa’s resurgence—.389 average over the last seven days—and cited Outlier’s 61 % projection for him to collect 2 or more hits/runs/RBI on Friday. While Jordan did not specify the opposing pitcher, he emphasized Correa’s underlying form and lineup spot as reasons to include him in multi-leg hit parlays or as a salary-relief DFS shortstop.

Facing Orioles call-up Brandon Young, who has been torched for a .313 average by righties and .344 across his last two starts, Jose Altuve profiles as the Astros’ best prop. Altuve is batting .350 over the previous week, and Outlier gives a 71 % chance he hits the 2-plus hits/runs/RBI combo. Jordan recommends locking Altuve into hit parlays or DraftKings captain builds, anticipating Houston’s veteran lineup to rough up the inexperienced right-hander.

Kenny G backed Houston at –165 with Hunter Brown on the bump. Brown owns a 2.51 ERA and has yielded two or fewer earned runs in three of his last four starts; the last time he faced Boston he fanned seven over seven innings of one-run ball. The Astros are 35-24 at Minute Maid and feature a top-tier bullpen, while Boston counters with Walker Buehler and his 5.40 ERA, including three earned in 4.1 innings the last time Houston saw him. Kenny mentioned Boston’s 26-32 road mark and their 32-25-1 over record away from Fenway, arguing the home/ pitching edge outweighs the price. He expects Brown and the pen to deliver another win.

Cash Out Sports Picks jumped on the Houston Astros money-line thanks to a lopsided pitching matchup. Walker Buehler owns a 5.40 ERA and 1.56 WHIP overall that inflate to a 6.52 ERA and .312 BAA on the road. Hunter Brown counters with a 2.37 ERA and .174 opponent average in 60.2 home innings and has given up only four runs in his last 17.1 frames. With Houston motivated after an embarrassing loss and its hitters posting a .321 OBP and .459 SLG in 74 prior at-bats vs Buehler, he expects the Astros to handle business.

Lindquist is looking to play the Under 7.5 in Monday’s White Sox–Astros game, expecting a pitchers’ duel between Cristian Javier and Garrett Crochet. He called Javier’s stuff “filthy” and reminded listeners that even in an uneven 2024 the right-hander posted a 3.89 ERA against a 4.56 xERA before going on the IL; this will be his first start of 2025, so the Houston bullpen should be fully available behind him. Crochet’s swing-and-miss profile on the other side gives Chicago a similar ceiling. Despite the inviting Crawford Boxes in left, Lindquist notes that Houston chased Isaac Paredes precisely for that pull power and Boston (er, Chicago) doesn’t bring much of it. He expects something like a 3-2 or 4-2 game and doubts the number will move back to 8, so Under 7.5 is his play.

Bill Harrelson said to take Carlos Correa for more than 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs against the Yankees. Harrelson pointed out that Correa has cashed this prop in five straight contests and actually seven straight overall, logging two-plus hits in each of the last two meetings with New York. He has also cleared the number in four consecutive head-to-head matchups dating back to early June 2024. On the road Correa has hit this mark in seven straight games, averaging 3.1 combined HRR over that stretch. Although his 2025 season-long hit rate is just 51%, Harrelson noted last year’s 62% clip over 85 games as evidence the ceiling is real. Correa owns a .280 average versus left-handed pitching (slightly above his .276 baseline) and will face Max Fried, who is allowing a .221 average to right-handed bats—worse than his overall .218. Correa is getting roughly five plate appearances per game lately, and PrizePicks/Underdog are the only books still hanging this 1.5 line, giving bettors a unique edge.

Kenny G said the Astros are worth a small bet at +170 in the Bronx. He pointed to Max Fried’s recent slide – 4, 2, 4, 3 and 3 earned runs allowed over his last five starts – and noted New York is just 2-3 in those games. The Yankees’ battered bullpen and an offense that has scored 5-3-3-0-5-3-0 runs in its last seven contests add to his fade. By contrast, Houston’s relief corps has been one of the league’s best, and the club owns a solid 30-28 road record. With the market hanging Yankees –205 and a total of nine, Kenny sees value grabbing the Astros money-line at +170, expecting their pen to shorten the game and capitalize on New York’s cold bats.

Drew Martin said to lay the –120 on Houston because every edge he checks points that way. He trusts Framber Valdez, who sits at 11-5 with a 2.80 ERA, far more than Luis Gil, whose four rehab outings produced a 5-plus ERA and whose lone big-league appearance this year lasted just 3.1 innings with five earned runs against Miami. Martin expects those command issues to be exposed by an Astros lineup that is third in MLB wRC+ versus right-handed pitching since the All-Star break. Houston’s bullpen grades out better as well – he has them several slots higher on his numbers – and the club is 64-51 overall while New York keeps slipping. With starter, lineup and relief advantages all lining up, Martin played Houston on the moneyline.

Guy Boston Sports said Framber Valdez is in an ideal bounce-back position despite last week’s clunker (6 IP, 7 H, 5 ER vs Boston). Prior to that hiccup Valdez had logged three straight quality starts with a 1.78 ERA. He still matches up well with New York’s right-hand–heavy order: his sinker/curve/change trio keeps the ball on the ground (56% GB rate) and Yankee Stadium’s deep left-center gap suppresses lefty power. The handicap centers on Valdez’s 32% CSW over his previous three outings and the fact the Yankees just saw three of their top relievers Friday, which lessens the pressure to be perfect for six full frames. The tout likes Valdez for DFS cash builds and is considering his 6.5 K prop OVER at plus money.

Kenny G recommended laying the modest –125 with the Astros because he sees it as a prime bounce-back spot for Framber Valdez. Valdez is 11-5 with a 2.83 ERA and, outside of a six-run clunker versus Boston, has been dominant all season. The Yankees oppose him with Luis Gil, who surrendered six runs in 3.1 innings to Miami and owns a 13.50 ERA, and Kenny has little confidence in New York’s shaky bullpen. Houston’s relief corps, on the other hand, has been among MLB’s best, and the lineup is heating up with 5, 4, 7 and 8 runs in its last four games while ranking second in batting average. The Yankees have dropped six of seven, scored 3-3-0-5-3-0 in that stretch, and even a potential Giancarlo Stanton return is unlikely to mask an offense that has sputtered to 24th in runs. With bullpen, starter and lineup edges all pointing Houston’s way, Kenny made Astros –125 his favorite side play of the day.

DFS Army said Framber Valdez remains the safest, highest-ceiling arm on Saturday’s three-game early slate. Even though the opponent is a quality offense, the lineup skews left-handed, which neutralises a good portion of their power against Valdez’s elite sinker/curveball combo. With no weather concerns and every other pitcher on the slate carrying workload or talent questions, Valdez projects for the top raw score and is recommended as the foundational cash-game and single-entry play on DraftKings.

Kenny G advised laying the short price on Houston at ‑120 in Yankee Stadium. He highlighted Hunter Brown’s 9-5 record and sparkling 2.47 ERA, noting the right-hander looked “unhittable” at times and allowed just one run over seven innings in his last start versus Boston. Houston’s bullpen backs him with a 3.34 ERA, one of the league’s best. On the other side, rookie Cam Schlittler carries a 4.58 ERA and has surrendered at least two earned in every start while New York has managed only a 2-2 record behind him. Kenny also blasted the Yankees’ relief corps (4.27 ERA) and pointed out their lineup’s recent cold spell, despite ranking third in season-long runs—they’ve posted run totals of 3-0-5-3-0-1 in their last six. With the superior starter and a massive bullpen advantage, Kenny sees Houston as the clear betting side and a candidate for his pinned comment.

Eric Lindquist recommended playing Hunter Brown to allow fewer than 2.5 earned runs in the Bronx. Brown owns a 2.47 ERA and sparkling 0.98 WHIP on the season, and Lindquist pointed out that he has surrendered exactly one earned run in each of his last two outings despite inconsistent strikeout totals (6-5-7 Ks). Friday marks the first time in four starts he won’t be on a strict five-inning leash after stretching to 7.0 frames his last time out. Lindquist expects similar efficiency against a Yankee lineup that is scuffling versus high-velocity righties (24.8 % K rate, 90 wRC+ in that split since July 1). He emphasized that Yankee Stadium’s hostile crowd could create added pressure on the slumping bats rather than on Brown, whose heavy-curveball arsenal has held opponents to a .287 expected wOBA. Given the Astros’ tendency to ride hot starters deep and Brown’s recent run-prevention form, Lindquist sees value in the Under 2.5 earned runs prop at plus money.

Kenny G said he is backing Houston on the moneyline against Miami, even with Hunter Aragatti making his first start since missing almost the entire season. He trusts the Astros’ lineup, which is riding a two-game win streak, and views Jansen Junk as a clear downgrade on the Marlins’ side. While Aragatti’s long layoff introduces some risk, Kenny believes the pitching matchup and current form heavily favor the Astros and would lay the short price to extend Houston’s run to three straight wins.

Kenny G prefers Houston at the pick’em –110 tag for game three in Miami. The Astros have already clinched the first two games and enter with a hot lineup (Altuve and Diaz homered in game two), second-best team batting average, and a trustworthy bullpen. Rookie Spencer Arrighetti returns from a thumb injury, but Kenny trusts even four to five solid innings more than what he expects from Jansen Junk, who sports a 3.86 ERA but has surrendered 10 earned runs over his last 10 frames. Miami’s offense ranks 19th in runs and its pen owns a 4.05 ERA. Given those edges, Kenny believes the ‘Stros should be favored closer to –125 and is willing to fire at the current number.

Eric Lindquist grabbed the Astros money line at –110 against Miami and called it "massively undervalued." He concedes Spencer Arrighetti’s surface numbers look ugly (48% hard-hit rate, .376 xSLG) but believes the revamped pitch mix makes him far less hittable the second time through. Dusty Baker has a fully-rested top-three bullpen ready if Arrighetti struggles. On the flip side, Janson Junk owns a 6% swinging-strike rate and a single Stuff+-graded pitch above average, making him, in Lindquist’s words, "confirmed bad." Add Houston’s lineup ceiling and the bullpen edge, and he prices the Astros at –140, seeing value at anything –120 or better.

Bill Harrelson said he is taking Jose Altuve UNDER 1.5 total bases on PrizePicks for the 11:35 AM series finale at Fenway. The capper pointed out that Altuve has failed to reach two bases in eight of his last ten outings, including both games against Boston this weekend. Looking back 20 games the under is hitting 55% (11-of-20), and over a 107-game 2025 sample the under is still 55%. When you fold in last season’s 155 games Altuve has stayed below 1.5 in roughly 56% of his last 260 contests. He has been particularly quiet versus the Red Sox, falling short in five of the last six head-to-head meetings. Sportsbooks agree—Bet365, Caesars, DraftKings, Hard Rock, Sleeper and others all have the under juiced—while nothing in the individual matchup with Lucas Giolito (career .273 average vs a .281 baseline) screams breakout. Harrelson expects another one-or-zero-base day and is locking in the under before first pitch.

Eric Lindquist called Jesus Sanchez a sneaky buy in hitter props this week, pointing to the outfielder’s .348 expected wOBA and hard-hit profile that outpace his actual results. With Cal Quantrill (10.5 % barrel rate) and Miles Mikolas (12 % barrel rate) headlining opposing rotations during the upcoming series, Lindquist expects plentiful loud contact opportunities. He added that Miami’s front office reportedly plans to build around Sanchez, ensuring an every-day lineup spot. Sanchez also benefits from Xavier Edwards’ 9.2 % walk rate ahead of him, which should boost RBI chances. Lindquist is looking to play Sanchez at plus money for over 1.5 total bases and would sprinkle a homer ticket if books hang anything longer than +475.

Calling it his "lock of the day," Kenny G laid the hefty –235 with Houston. Framber Valdez is 11-4 with a 2.67 ERA and the Astros have won his last five outings, most recently 7 IP, 1 ER in a 3-1 victory over Arizona. Washington counters with 25-year-old Brad Lord, stretched out only four innings in his first start and backed by MLB’s worst bullpen (north of a 5.50 collective ERA). Houston’s relief corps sits at 3.42, and despite scoring just seven total runs in a four-game sweep by Oakland, the lineup still ranks second in batting average and ninth in OBP—numbers Kenny expects to surface against Lord and that pen. With Houston 33-23 at home and the Nats 22-31 on the road, he sees little path to an upset and ignored the 7.5 total.

Eric Lindquist advised betting Framber Valdez ‘to record a win’ rather than laying full Houston juice. The lefty has gone at least six innings in nine of his last ten starts and the Astros’ bullpen owns the best ERA in baseball, giving him multiple paths to the W once he hands the ball off. Washington’s lineup looks even softer with Amed Rosario moving on, and Houston has rattled off a long string of victories in Valdez appearances, something Lindquist framed as talent-driven, not a fluky trend.

Cash Out Sports Picks said Houston is a strong favorite because Framber Valdez has been "steady as they come" while Brad Lord is being rushed back from the injured list and the Nationals staff sits bottom-five in ERA and WHIP. Opponents are batting .264 (3rd-worst mark in MLB) off Washington pitching, making it likely the Astros jump ahead early and never look back. The tout framed the series opener as a chance for a slumping Houston club to 'get right' at home and advised taking the Astros to win and cover the run line.

Kenny G laid the –135 with Houston to avoid a four-game sweep, citing a massive bullpen edge and Oakland’s inevitable regression. While rookie lefty JT Ginn has been solid (1 ER over 5 IP in his lone recent start), Kenny reminded listeners the A’s relief corps owns the league’s worst ERA and will be exposed once Ginn exits. Houston counters with southpaw Colton Gordon, who has delivered two strong outings in his last five and already held Oakland to three runs back on June 28. Despite the Astros offense going cold this series, they still sit second in MLB batting average and eighth in OBP on the season. Oakland’s recent surge is powered by Nick Kurtz’s debut, but Kenny doubts a lineup that is only 15th in runs can keep punishing an Astros bullpen that has been top-10 most of 2025.

Lonte Smith circled the full–game over 7.5 in A’s-Astros. He noted Hunter Brown’s recent implosion—13 earned over his last 15 innings and 10 earned in his two most-recent home starts—as the primary catalyst. Luis Lopez held Houston scoreless two weeks ago, but Smith reminded listeners the rookie’s low hit rate masks a glaring long-ball problem; when contact happens, it often leaves the yard. Oakland’s lineup may be streaky, yet the top of the order still owns legitimate slugging punch, while Houston’s bats are too talented to stay dormant against Lopez for a second straight meeting. With both starters carrying home-run or hard-contact issues and a modest 7.5 total, Smith expects each club to reach three or four runs, pushing the game past the number by the sixth or seventh inning.

Kenny G recommended laying –210 with Houston, even if it will not be his pinned "lock." Hunter Brown is 9-4 with a 2.57 ERA and, despite three shaky starts coming out of the break, now faces an Oakland lineup that is just 17th in runs and drags a 5.45 bullpen ERA. Jacob Lopez (3-6, 4.60 ERA) has been torched in three straight outings and rarely reaches the sixth inning. While the Astros’ bats have cooled (14th in runs) Kenny pointed out they still rank 2nd in batting average and 9th in OBP and own a 33-19 record at Minute Maid Park. Oakland is just 22-31 away from home. With Brown’s prior success against the A’s back in May and Houston’s elite bullpen backing him up, Kenny believes the high price is warranted and advises Astros moneyline.

With no official lines posted yet, Lonte Smith said he is waiting to see the number but fully intends to play Houston –1.5 once the market opens. Oakland has scored fewer than three runs in four straight and managed only five total runs in a three-game sweep at the hands of Texas. The Astros, meanwhile, just swept Arizona on the road and return to Minute Maid having won four straight despite yet another injury to closer Bryan Abreu. Smith acknowledges starter Joey Estes (projected opener Springs) has been serviceable away from Oakland but pointed to seven homers allowed in his last six outings and a bullpen that ranks 29th in ERA. He will use the Astros as a parlay piece if the moneyline is too steep but prefers the run line to maximize return against an A’s club he simply labeled "a fade until further notice."

Kenny G urged listeners to grab Houston at –130, calling it a potential “lock of the day.” His case: Oakland has dropped four straight and is 42-62 overall, while Luis Severino sits at 3-11 with a 5.10 ERA and just gave up nine hits in five innings the last time he saw these Astros. The A’s carry the second-worst bullpen in MLB, so even a rare solid Severino outing likely unravels late. Houston, meanwhile, has rattled off four wins in a row, ranks second in batting average and eighth in OBP, and has plated 4-3-6-11 runs during the streak. Spot starter Jason Alexander has already handled Oakland once (6 IP, 3 H, 2 ER in a 13-3 romp) and if he stumbles, a 3.30 ERA bullpen can slam the door. Kenny thinks all of those edges justify laying the short price on a five-game card.

Cash Out Sports Picks took the Houston Astros moneyline. The Astros have won three of their last four and crush right-handed pitching, while Oakland starter Severino has hemorrhaged 12 runs over his previous three starts and 16 in his last three road turns. Behind him sits one of MLB’s weakest bullpens. Houston’s staff, conversely, is among the league’s best at preventing runs. Oakland has scored only 20 runs in six games against Houston this season and has dropped three of four overall. Given the stark pitching mismatch and the A’s shaky offense, he sees the Astros as the clear side.

Brad PickDawgz recommended Astros moneyline versus Oakland even though Houston is likely running a bullpen game. He acknowledged the listed starter’s ugly ERA but still preferred the significantly stronger lineup and a club that has been ‘super solid at home all season.’ Brad called the current price ‘pretty damn good’ for a team he views as clearly superior and expects Minute Maid Park to remain a major edge.

B Wade backed Jose Altuve over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs. The veteran has cashed this prop in 7 of his last 10 and 3 of 5 since the All-Star break. Altuve owns a .346 average (9-for-26) in a large sample versus Luis Severino, who now allows an average of 6.6 hits per start to Houston. Wade noted Altuve’s .291 clip against right-handers and pointed out that every time Altuve has missed this prop against Oakland since the start of last season he has hit it in the very next game. With Severino’s stuff in decline, Wade expects Altuve to reach base multiple times and drive in or score at least one run.

Martin will only look Astros against Oakland. Houston sits 59-42 with clear advantages in lineup depth and bullpen quality, while projected A’s starter Luis Severino is just 3-11 and surrendered nine hits in five innings the last time he faced the Astros. Even if Houston opts for a bullpen game, Martin sees enough edge to justify a money-line play up to roughly –150/–160; beyond that, he’d shift to a –1 run-line to keep juice manageable.

Rockford projected Houston as a –160 favorite assuming rookie right-hander Ryan Gusto gets the nod opposite Luis Severino, so any price below that is a green light on the Astros moneyline. He noted Houston has flipped the switch, winning three straight while leading MLB in opponent batting average over the past ten games. Minute Maid Park has been a cash machine—33-19 straight up—and the Astros still boast a top-five bullpen. Oakland, meanwhile, owns one of the league’s worst relief corps and has cratered since the All-Star break. Severino is 0-2 against Houston because the A’s pen routinely implodes after he exits. Given form, bullpen disparity, and home dominance, Rockford is laying anything shorter than –160 with Houston.

Reichel played Houston –102, stating the Astros should be small favorites. Spot starter Brandon Walter has quietly produced a 3.66 ERA, and outside of one clunker versus the Angels he has been steady on the road. Brandon Pfaadt has reclaimed form (15 IP, 2 ER in his last two), but Reichel cannot trust an Arizona bullpen ranked bottom-10 in ERA. Houston sits above .500 away from Minute Maid and cashed as dogs Tuesday, reinforcing his view that the market is still shading Arizona too heavily.

After cashing the same ticket Tuesday, Lindquist is running back Brice Matthews OVER 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs at plus money against Brandon Pfaadt. Pfaadt remains a punching bag: 92 mph average exit velo, 49.2 % hard-hit rate, 13.2 % barrels, .389 xwOBA, .560 xSLG and a .306 xBA allowed to all hitters. Matthews, Houston’s No. 1 prospect, is projected to hit behind Yainer Diaz and Victor Caratini, giving him RBI chances while his own athleticism creates run equity. Lindquist emphasized that lineup protection plus Pfaadt’s inability to neutralize either hand (identical ugly splits) make the plus-money H+R+RBI market too generous to pass.

Malcom Bamford grabbed Houston –130, pointing out the Astros have won 12 straight Framber Valdez starts regardless of venue. While Gallen is excellent, Bamford noted Valdez’s road wobbles haven’t mattered because Houston keeps bailing him out offensively. The Astros also own this matchup, winning 11 of the last 15 against Arizona. Still salty that last night’s 4-1 first-inning score somehow died under the total, Bamford wants his money back riding the more reliable side and sees the line as a gift under –140.