Mike Maher encouraged gamers to treat Hunter Brown as both a speculative Cy Young wager and an emerging fantasy ace. Maher noted that sportsbooks have Tarik Skubal as a massive favorite (-260 at DraftKings, ‑420 at FanDuel) while Brown sits at +1200, tied with Jacob deGrom. Maher sees a realistic path for Brown to close the gap: 1) the Astros own the second-easiest remaining schedule, 2) Detroit may protect Skubal’s workload down the stretch because the Tigers are coasting in MLB’s softest division, and 3) Houston’s race should stay competitive, allowing Brown to keep piling up wins and innings. Brown is already SP-6 in FantasyPros’ rest-of-season ranks (SP-5 after you remove Shohei Ohtani’s placeholder line), yet he was drafted outside the top-100 overall last spring. Maher expects a meteoric ADP leap—into the top-20 overall by 2026 drafts—based on Brown’s 97 mph fastball, 29 % K-rate, and league-best 17.9 % swinging-strike mark since May 1. Maher suggested grabbing Brown futures now before the soft schedule and a potentially throttled Skubal tighten the race, and he is comfortable building redraft staffs around the Houston right-hander as a bona-fide fantasy SP-1 the rest of the way.

Matt Perrault urged listeners to lay the modest -125 with Houston behind Framber Valdez versus Jacob deGrom and the Rangers. The Astros have won every Valdez start since May 2, ripping off an 11-0 streak that includes victories over the Dodgers, Phillies, Rays, and Brewers. Perrault expects the left-hander to act as a stopper for a club riding a four-game skid after three straight losses to Cleveland and a current 7-3 deficit to Texas. With Valdez’s trend and Houston’s desperation for a win before the break, Perrault is staking 1.25 units on the Astros to prevail.

Eric Lindquist recommended taking separate shots on Isaac Paredes to homer AND to steal a base Friday against rookie Jack Leiter. Lindquist likes sprinkling quarter-unit plays on each prop because Leiter’s 5.02 xERA, sub-20% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate create two different paths to profit. Paredes is a pure pull hitter whose 40-degree average launch shots translate well in Minute Maid Park; he also owns a double-digit walk rate that should put him on base when Leiter’s command wanders, giving him a chance to swipe a bag against a Texas battery that has allowed the fifth-most steals this season. With the Rangers coming in on travel and Houston rolling out a makeshift outfield, Lindquist sees Paredes’ power-speed combo as a sneaky plus-money exploit.

On the BettingPros futures segment, Chris Welsh advised pulling back on Houston Astros pennant and World Series tickets. He argued the club cannot make a deep run without Yordan Alvarez, who still "has yet to resume hitting," and noted Jeremy Pena has not even begun baseball activities. Welsh pointed out that he already wagered the Astros to taper off in the AL West and thinks the recent spate of injuries strengthens that position. Even though Houston has strung together a few wins, Welsh expects a second-half slide, opening value on division rivals in outright markets and win-total unders on Houston.

Lonte Smith echoed Bamford and grabbed Astros –1.5 at plus money, calling it ‘a gift.’ Brown has surrendered two or fewer in seven straight and boasts a 1.82 ERA, while Cleveland’s offense is in free-fall—hitting below .180 and scoring just 1.5 runs on five hits per game over the past ten. Cantillo rarely works past the third inning, meaning a taxed Guardians bullpen will be exposed early. Houston has won eight of the last ten head-to-head meetings and just dismantled the Dodgers without Jeremy Pena or Yordan Alvarez. Smith noted that the Astros have covered the run line in six of their last eight and predicted that trend continues versus an anemic Cleveland lineup averaging 3.1 runs during its 10-game skid.

Malcom Bamford advised taking Houston –1.5 at plus money against a Guardians club mired in a 10-game losing streak. Joey Cantillo will serve as a three-inning opener, but Cleveland has dropped seven of his last eight appearances and ranks bottom-five in runs allowed. Meanwhile Hunter Brown owns a 1.82 ERA and has limited opponents to three total earned runs over his last six home starts. Houston just hung 29 runs on the Dodgers and owns the second-fewest runs allowed in MLB (325), positioning them for a dominant win. With Cleveland averaging just 3.1 runs per game during the skid—and topping two runs only twice—the Astros’ run line felt like the ‘safer bet’ to Bamford than a Guardians team-total under.

Ron Pick Dawgz advised laying both the money-line and run-line with Houston. He called Cleveland "the worst offense in baseball" and likes the spot for Hunter Brown, who enters off several sharp outings and now faces a Guardians lineup that ranks dead last in most major categories versus right-handed pitching. On the flip side, Joey Cantillo has been serviceable, but Ron emphasized that the Astros own one of MLB’s best splits against lefties, making Minute Maid (he referred to it as Diken Park) a tough ask for the rookie. Ron projected a low-scoring but clearly one-sided result in Houston’s favor and labeled the Astros the bettable side.

Mark paired the Astros moneyline with the Blue Jays moneyline for a two-leg parlay paying +131. The Houston leg hinges on Hunter Brown, whom he expects to “mow” through a Guardians lineup that ranks only 13th in strikeout rate the last seven days but rarely barrels the ball. Brown enters 9-3 with a 1.82 ERA, gets an extra day of rest after being scratched Monday, and faces rookie Carlos Carrasco’s replacement Xzavion Curry (3.41 ERA). Mark doubts Cleveland wins back-to-back games after an outlier seven-run outburst and prefers the safer moneyline to a +110 run line, folding Houston into the parlay to juice the return.

Eric Lindquist recommended betting Hunter Brown’s earned-runs under, preferring the plus-money 1.5 alt line but still comfortable up to –120. Brown owns a 2.74 xwOBA and a 32.1 % strikeout rate that Lindquist likened to “prime DeGrom.” Cleveland’s offense grades out poorly against right-handed pitching (91 wRC+; 21.7 % K-rate) and has been more exploitable by southpaws all season. With the Guardians likely piecing together a bullpen game on the other side, Lindquist expects Dusty Baker to let Brown work deep enough for six dominant frames, projecting zero or one earned run. He views the standard 2.5 line as a strong parlay anchor but is aggressively chasing the 1.5 under for standalone action.

Mike DFS Army recommended taking Jose Altuve UNDER 0.5 singles on PrizePicks. He pointed out that Altuve has failed to record a single in 3 of his last 5 games, 6 of his last 10, and 60% of his last 15. The matchup is against left-hander Joey Cantillo, and Altuve has struggled versus southpaws this season, batting just .208 against them compared to .284 against right-handers. Sports-book pricing backs the fade: Fanatics lists the under at –150 while the over is only –105 at FanDuel, signaling strong market confidence in the under. Because the prop is single-specific, doubles, homers, or walks do not beat the pick, further tilting value toward the under.

The tout locked in the Astros moneyline, pointing to two teams headed opposite directions. Houston has won 11 of 13, owns MLB’s best batting average and is raking .345 in July. Cleveland has dropped 10 straight and 13 of 16, scoring two runs or fewer in eight of those losses. Starting pitching is night and day: Hunter Brown is 17-0 in team starts with a 1.82 ERA (1.01 ERA, .144 BAA at Minute Maid), while Tanner Bibee’s road ERA is 5.40 and the Guardians have lost six of his last seven outings. Given Houston’s form and Brown’s dominance, the tout labeled the Astros an “only” side.

Matt Perrault said the Astros at 10-1 to win the World Series are the best futures ticket on the board right now. His case: Houston owns the easiest remaining schedule in MLB on paper, is about to get Yordan Alvarez back healthy, already has a legitimate 1-2 punch atop the rotation, and sports the league’s best record against teams above .500. They are also the best home club in baseball and just swept the Dodgers in Los Angeles, a result that convinced Perrault the roster is championship-caliber. With the price still hanging at 10-1 (FanDuel has already trimmed it to 4-1 to win the AL), he plans to stake one unit now and hedge later if the Astros simply reach the Fall Classic.

Brad Pick Dawgz labeled the Guardians-Astros ‘No Runs First Inning’ his favorite play of the slate. He called both clubs "under machines": Cleveland has been highly profitable to the under on the road, while Houston cashes unders at home. Expecting another low-scoring affair, Brad believes the first frame stays quiet and is betting the Nerfie accordingly.

Brad Pick Dawgz laid the -160 with Houston because the two clubs are, in his words, "headed in different directions." Cleveland has dropped 10 straight, and Brad emphasized that the Guardians "can't hit a beach ball right now," making them a cash-cow fade during this skid. Houston, meanwhile, is trending upward, so he is comfortable paying a steeper money-line price he rarely touches, convinced that the Guardians’ offensive funk makes the Astros a strong favorite play.

Rockford is sticking with Houston –1.5 at +140 even after learning that rookie Gordon—not Hunter Brown—will start Monday. He does not view the pitching change as a downgrade big enough to scare him off because the bet is mostly a fade of Cleveland. The Guardians have dropped ten straight, average just 3.4 runs per road game, and own a bottom-five bullpen over the past month. Meanwhile the Astros lineup is firing on all cylinders coming off a momentum-building sweep of the Dodgers. Rockford expects Houston’s offense to give Gordon an early cushion and trusts a rested high-leverage relief corps to slam the door in a 6-2 or 7-3 type of victory.

Scott Reichel snapped up Astros –1.5 at +140 behind Hunter Brown, who has not allowed more than two earned runs in seven straight home starts. Cleveland is riding a ten-game losing streak, owns a bottom-five bullpen over the past month, and scores just 3.4 runs per game away from Progressive Field. Reichel added that Tanner Bibee’s road ERA is nearly a full run higher than at home, giving Houston a starting-pitching edge on top of its lineup firepower. He thinks the Guardians could easily get blanked again, projecting a 6-1 type of blowout.

Scott Reichel argued that Houston is a must-bet at +125 because Shohei Ohtani’s new role as a two-inning opener leaves the Dodgers leaning on long reliever Nick Nastrini (Kasparius) for bulk innings, while Framber Valdez is in peak form. Valdez rides a 13-inning scoreless streak, is 6-0 with a 1.57 ERA over his last seven starts, and has surrendered only three homers in the past two months. Reichel noted the public will blindly parlay Los Angeles at any price under –150, but the true matchup favors Houston: the Astros have quietly played above .500 on the road over the last six weeks, and their lineup is set to get healthier as September approaches. With Valdez averaging 7.0 IP per outing and the Ohtani “start” effectively shortening L.A.’s pitching depth, Reichel projected Houston as a –110 favorite and is grabbing any plus money available.

Scott Reichel said the safest way to attack the uncertain Dodgers-Astros matchup is to isolate Lance McCullers’ earned-runs line instead of laying a steep –170 without knowing the Dodgers’ starter. Reichel expects the market to hang a juiced 2.5 (or possibly 3.5) and is happy to play the over, noting that oddsmakers clearly anticipate Los Angeles scoring given the price disparity despite an unnamed pitcher. He plans to ‘fade McCullers and pick him to get shelled,’ arguing that any number south of 3 earned runs is worth betting because the Dodgers’ lineup remains dangerous and the ballpark weather does not suppress offense.

Scott Reichel labeled the Astros –1.5 at roughly –122 a bet-or-pass spot. Colorado is a league-worst 8-33 at Coors, and Kyle Freeland is 1-9 with a 5.56 ERA, creating a massive starting-pitching gap versus Houston rookie Brandon Walter. Although the Astros are sub-.500 on the road, Scott stressed that anything under –150 on the run line is actionable because Houston’s superior lineup faces the worst home team in baseball and a bullpen that ranks bottom-five in ERA.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended laying the juice with Houston. The Astros are 52-34, winners in eight of their last ten and sitting atop the AL West, while Colorado drags the worst record in baseball at 19-67 with only two victories in the last ten. Hunter Brown has been "dealing all season" and draws a Rockies lineup that strikes out at a top-of-the-board clip. Offensively, Houston ranks top-10 in batting average and excels with runners in scoring position, a bad recipe for Austin Gomber, who rarely misses bats. With talent edges on the mound and at the plate, the tout labeled the Astros money line his preferred side.

It’s The Final Round identified Jake Meyers as a plus matchup against Rockies southpaw Kyle Freeland. Meyers is 2-for-3 (.667) off Freeland and has notched a hit in 15 of his last 17 games. With Freeland’s diminishing velocity and Coors-field-boosted run environment, the tout likes Meyers to go over 0.5 hits and serve as a low-salary DFS salary-saver in Houston stacks.

Eric Lindquist advised betting Isaac Paredes’ home-run prop if books post anything better than +295 for Thursday’s game at Coors. Lindquist dug into Statcast’s Pull-Air leaderboard, noting that Paredes ranks top-5 in MLB for percentage of balls pulled in the air—a trait Houston specifically targeted because it plays perfectly to their Minute Maid short porch. That profile becomes even more dangerous at Coors, where the forecast again calls for a double-digit wind blowing straight out to left. Lindquist added that Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland owns a 302 expected batting average, a 10-degree average launch angle, and very little swing-and-miss, meaning lots of elevated contact in the jet stream. He personally grabbed +350 earlier in the day and would still play it down to +295, calling anything above that “pure value.”

Just A Bet Outside doubled down on Hunter Brown’s strikeout prop, locking in over 6.5 Ks at –115 for a half-unit despite whiffing on the right-hander in prior bets. He pointed out that Brown has cleared this line in 11 of 16 starts and owns elite swing-and-miss metrics (92nd percentile K-rate, 74th whiff rate, 73rd chase rate). The Rockies still strike out plenty at Coors—third-highest K-rate vs righties since June 1 (24.5%). To underscore the matchup, he listed the last five right-handed visitors to Denver: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (6 Ks/5 IP), Brandon Pfaadt (7 Ks/5 IP), Merrill Kelly (7 Ks/6 IP), Zac Gallen (5 Ks/5 IP) and Hayden Birdsong (6 Ks/6 IP)—all averaged at least a punch-out per inning. With Brown favored to reach 17.5 outs, Stephen expects six frames and believes the Astros’ ace-quality stuff can deliver 7–9 strikeouts, making the over a strong betting play and useful DFS leverage even if he allows a few runs in the altitude.

Just A Bet Outside fired on Hunter Brown over 6.5 strikeouts at –115 (Bet365), saying the market should have opened 7.5. Brown has punched out nine or more hitters in three of his last five starts and sits in the 92nd percentile for K-rate, 74th for whiff rate and 73rd for chase. Colorado has the worst strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the last three weeks (30.3%) and the game is at Coors, where hitters are more aggressive. Despite two recent duds (4 and 5 Ks), Stephen trusts Brown’s elite swing-and-miss arsenal to exploit a free-swinging lineup and expects 7–9 punch-outs, making the over 6.5 a strong single-game prop and DFS leverage play.

Just A Bet Outside argued that Hunter Brown is still a strong strikeout play even at hitter-friendly Coors Field. Colorado owns the highest K-rate in baseball against right-handed pitching over the last three weeks (30.3%). Brown has 118 strikeouts in 98 innings this season and has posted monster games of 9 and 12 Ks in two of his last four starts. While his road K-rate (28.4%) lags behind his 37% mark at Minute Maid, he dominates lefties (34.2% K-rate). Brown’s only other Coors appearance came last July, but Stephen notes the 25-year-old is a far better pitcher now. He is betting the over on Brown’s strikeout prop—expecting a 7-9 K window—and sees him as a discounted, high-upside DFS tournament option.

Malcom Bamford kept it simple: Astros –1.5. Hunter Brown has been lights-out, tossing seven scoreless with nine strikeouts against Philadelphia last week and logging a 1.71 ERA over his past five. On the flip side, Austin Gomber served up nine earned in his last Coors appearance and carries a 5.55 career ERA versus Houston. Bamford added that the Rockies are 11-23 on the run line as home underdogs and own MLB’s worst bullpen by WAR. He expects Brown to hand a multi-run lead to a top-10 Houston pen and called the run line "an easy, if boring, ticket."

Jake Meyers is 4-for-6 (.667) in the limited but perfect BvP sample against Austin Gomber and has recorded a hit in 15 of his last 16 games. The tout flagged him as a sneaky leg in hit parlays.

Malcom Bamford recommended Houston –1.5 on the run line at Colorado. The Astros have covered the run line in three of Colton Gordon’s last four outings, while the Rockies have dropped four straight Chase Dollander starts by an average of 4.5 runs. Dollander’s early-season flash has vanished, and a fatigued Colorado bullpen offers little relief. Houston’s bats have been humming—7-3 in their last 10 and consistently cashing team totals—whereas the Rockies own a league-worst 31-54 run-line record and an abysmal home mark. Bamford sees value even at –170 on the moneyline but prefers the plus-money run-line angle given the matchup at altitude and Houston’s bullpen edge.

Kenny G urged bettors to back Houston at –155 with Framber Valdez on the hill. Valdez has delivered five straight quality starts, allowing two or fewer earned each time, and the Astros are 5-0 in that stretch. Chicago’s Jameson Taillon, meanwhile, has been blasted for 13 earned runs across his last two outings (vs MIL, STL) pushing his season ERA to 4.47 and hinting at possible injury concerns. Houston’s pen (3.34 ERA) ranks top-five, nearly matching the Cubs’ strong 3.31 mark, but Kenny prefers the Astros’ consistency at Minute Maid where they are 30-13. Offensively, the Cubs are elite—2nd in runs and 4th in slugging—yet Houston’s .256 team average (5th in MLB) and recent 5-game win streak before Saturday’s loss show enough pop to support Valdez. Given the dominant SP form and home/road splits (Astros 26-16-1 to home unders, Cubs 21-16-4 to road overs), Kenny locked in Houston moneyline rather than the lean-friendly 7.5 total.

Cash Out Sports Picks laid the price with Houston, trusting their hot lineup against Colin Rea, who has allowed 27 hits and 13 earned over his last 21 innings and a .291 opponent average in 27.2 road frames. While Lance McCullers Jr. is coming off a brief foot-related layoff and sports uneven season results, the tout argues Rea’s recent struggles plus the Astros’ .272 average/.751 OPS at home give Houston enough edge to win outright and keep its surge alive.

Kenny G said he expects to be on the Astros once lines drop for Saturday’s Cubs–Astros matchup. He flagged three edges Houston should own. First, Colin Rea’s 4.42 ERA hides how volatile he has been—Seattle just tattooed him for seven runs, and he has allowed a 46% hard-hit rate over his past five outings. Second, while Chicago’s 3.37 bullpen ERA looks shiny, Kenny does not trust the unit’s recent form after three blown leads in the last eight days. Houston’s pen, by contrast, sits top-five in ERA and WHIP and has coughed up only one run across its current five-game win streak. Finally, the Astros’ offense is heating up, ranking fifth in MLB batting average and coming off a 7-4 series-opening win. With Houston riding five straight victories, Rea in poor form, and no confirmed Astros starter but a rested bullpen ready to cover innings, Kenny anticipates a money-line price he is willing to lay and urged listeners to wait for numbers but plan on backing Houston.

B Wade chose Jeremy Pena over 1.5 total bases at plus money. Pena has cashed this prop in six of his last seven games and in both contests to open the series with Philadelphia despite only three total runs being scored. The shortstop hits .348 against left-handers, and he faces southpaw Cristopher Sanchez on Thursday. Pena has gone over this line in seven of his last eight starts against lefty starters, so Wade expects at least two bases—either via a double or a pair of singles.

Bettor Mark labeled Kyle Hendricks an "ultimate fade candidate," recommending both Houston –125 and the game total over 9.5. Hendricks has surrendered a .320 batting average the second time through orders and his soft-toss profile plays poorly against an Astros lineup that sits top-5 in hard-contact rate versus change-ups. Mark’s model makes Houston –150 and projects 10.2 combined runs, noting Angels rookie Gusto (making just his fourth start) has walked 12.5% of hitters. With Minute Maid’s roof expected closed, the warm indoor conditions historically add roughly 8% to homer production – enough for Mark to send this "to the moon," even if he kept it off the official card.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended the Astros money-line. They highlighted Houston’s recent surge and contact-oriented top of the order featuring Jeremy Pena and Isaac Paredes that should pressure an Angels staff allowing 4.07 runs per game. Ryan Gusto owns a 3.52 ERA in June and is expected to hand a lead to a bullpen that ranks middle of the pack yet superior to the Angels’ relief corps. Los Angeles’ .653 OPS at home (26th) further tilts the matchup toward Houston.

Kenny G recommended laying the modest −125 with Houston, predicting the Astros will rebound from Saturday’s 9-1 drubbing. He trusts Ryan Gusto (4-3, 4.31 ERA) who has strung together two quality starts, silencing Oakland and limiting Chicago before handing games to MLB’s No. 3 bullpen (3.30 ERA). Gusto’s early-April stumble versus L.A. is “well in the rear-view” in Kenny’s eyes. Conversely, Kyle Hendricks sports a 4.79 ERA and faces an Astros lineup still 10th in OBP despite cooling off (1, 3, 4, 11, 13 runs last five). Kenny sees Houston’s patient approach exposing the Angels’ fourth-worst bullpen (5.10 ERA). Anaheim’s offense ranks 22nd in runs, 29th in batting average, and dead last in OBP, so he does not expect them to take advantage of Houston’s road splitting line. The combination of pitching edge, bullpen edge and lineup floor makes the Astros his preferred side.

Razzle loves Hunter Brown despite the $10k sticker. The Angels’ projected lineup features six hitters above a 25% K-rate, and Brown’s slider has produced a 37% whiff rate. He owns a 35.4% strikeout clip on the road and has yet to allow more than three earned in any away start. Razzle tags him as one of the slate’s safest SP1s with 30-DK-point potential.

Reichel prefers Houston on the moneyline, crediting their 7-1 run and back-to-back 11-run explosions for flipping the AL West race. He isn’t impressed by the Angels’ mini-bounce versus the Yankees, chalking that to New York ‘inventing ways to lose’. Hunter Brown’s form (1.88 ERA) offsets any Kikuchi home split, and Houston’s lineup is firing with Altuve and Alvarez healthy. He expects books to open Astros as a short road fave and will lay it up to –125, calling this the classic ‘ride the heater’ spot.

Kenny G is willing to swallow the –184 moneyline because Hunter Brown has been lights-out. The 24-year-old righty sits at 8-3 with a 1.88 ERA, has struck out 12 and 10 in two of his last three starts, and Houston is 4-0 during that span. The Astros back him with a top-5 bullpen and an offense that is second in MLB batting average (.259) and finally translating contact into runs. He is not worried about Los Angeles’ Yusei Kikuchi, who sports a 3.05 ERA but just gave up five runs (three earned) to Baltimore and now hands the game to baseball’s worst bullpen. The Angels’ bats have mustered three or fewer runs in four straight and sit 21st in scoring. Given the massive bullpen disparity and Brown’s current form, Kenny believes the price is justified and even entertains a first-five play if the full-game vig feels steep.

Just A Bet Outside noted that Hunter Brown’s strikeout prop should once again be a green light. The Angels have the 4th-highest K-percentage against right-handers over the last three weeks (24.1%). Brown has shredded opponents for 105 Ks in 86 innings and has logged 8 or more strikeouts in eight consecutive starts when you remove his two outliers versus Tampa Bay. Minute Maid Park is a boost: his home K-rate is a gaudy 36.5% (29.3% on the road). Brown actually strikes out lefties slightly more (33.3% vs 31.2% righties), so the expected left-heavy lineup does not scare him. The host suggested betting the over on his K total and highlighted him as a tournament DFS ace.

Kenny G leaned to Houston at –130, saying the price is reasonable given the matchup. He pointed out Oakland is just 13-24 at home and 23-14 to the OVER there largely because its bullpen owns an ERA north of 5.00. By contrast, Houston, even in a down year, is a respectable 15-18 on the road and 18-13-2 to the UNDER away, illustrating that its pitching usually travels. Both clubs send raw rookies to the mound, so Kenny suggested a First-5 UNDER as a secondary look to dodge the A’s pen, but he ultimately trusts the deeper Astros lineup (top-10 in wRC+ the last three weeks) and a bullpen that has settled at 3.77 ERA since May 15. With Oakland’s offense still feast-or-famine outside of Brent Rooker and Jacob Wilson, Kenny is willing to lay up to –135 on Houston, grading the Astros a 54% win probability.

Just A Bet Outside threw out rookie Cam Smith as a value bat against southpaw Jacob Lopez and MLB’s worst bullpen. Smith is 7-for-11 (.429) over the last week, has a hit in 9 of 11, and owns a .286 average vs lefties ( .333 on the road, 237 WRC+ split). Lopez surrenders a .289 average and .474 slugging to right-handed hitters, and the A’s relief corps ranks last in ERA. With hitter-friendly Bay Area weather, the tout envisions Smith delivering another multi-hit effort and possible long-ball upside, making him viable for hit props, HR tickets, and DFS stacks.

Drew Martin plans to bet the Astros in the late game as long as the money-line price remains reasonable. Rookie left-hander Colton Gordon boasts a 30-to-4 strikeout-to-walk ratio through his first three MLB starts and has posted back-to-back gems. Houston’s bullpen is rolling and the lineup ranks top-five in OPS over the last two weeks. Martin expects them to handle Oakland swing-man Jacob Lopez, who profiles as a replacement-level arm. He leans toward the game total over because of the park, but his primary ticket is Houston to win convincingly.

Just A Bet Outside recommended backing Framber Valdez’s strikeout over at Oakland. The A’s have whiffed at a 30% clip against left-handed pitching over the past three weeks (4th highest). Valdez has rediscovered his swing-and-miss stuff, piling up 30 strikeouts in his last 21 innings and hitting 7+ Ks in six of his past seven starts. His season numbers (96 K in 90 IP) are finally catching up with the recent form, and his K splits are consistent home or away. The tout sees another 7–9 strikeout effort incoming and likes using Framber in prop ladders or as an SP2 in DFS builds.

Jimmy Adams recommended taking Houston at roughly –165 because Framber Valdez versus Luis Severino is a mismatch the market still hasn’t fully priced. Valdez’s last seven starts read 2-2-1-1-3-1 ER and the Astros have won all seven. He ranks in the 94th percentile in overall pitching run value, 97th percentile in ground-ball rate, and is limiting hitters to a .278 wOBA. Meanwhile Severino is wildly volatile—games of 8 ER and 6 ER sandwiched around one good outing versus the light-hitting Royals—and sits near the league bottom in whiff% and K%. Adams doubts he can navigate Houston’s power-heavy lineup, especially in the homer-friendly neutral site park in West Sacramento where Jose Altuve already went deep yesterday. Once the starters leave, the bullpen gap widens: Astros are top-5 in ERA while the A’s bullpen is dead last at nearly 6.00. Oakland also lost 20 of 22 earlier this season, underscoring how fragile they are. Even at –165, Adams believes the Astros money line belongs in every bettor’s portfolio today.

Just A Bet Outside highlighted Jose Altuve as another hitter-prop candidate, recommending betting at least one hit and considering the 2+ hits alt line. Altuve is scorching at .429 over the last seven days with hits in 9 of his previous 11 contests and four multi-hit efforts in his past six. Monday he draws either lefty JP Sears or bulk reliever Mitch Spence, both of whom Altuve owns success against—he is 9-for-22 with five extra-base knocks off Sears historically. Regardless of the opener, the Astros will see plenty of the league’s worst bullpen (6.00 ERA, 1.55 WHIP) once Oakland turns to relief. Altuve has shown neutral splits in 2024 (.270+ vs both LHP/RHP), and the warm, marine-layer free conditions at the A’s temporary minor-league venue should aid his line-drive approach. While Altuve’s season-long road average sits at .202, the tout expects positive regression given his .306 career road mark and the hitter-friendly environment. He advised pairing Over 1.5 total bases or a simple hit prop with any main card parlays and flagged Altuve as a strong DFS cash cornerstone.

Dylan Rockford said he is laying the half-run with the Astros in the first five innings. He trusts Lance McCullers, who has yet to allow a run in 17 road innings across three starts this season, to win the early matchup against Mitch Spence. Rockford noted Spence is a converted reliever who is only recently stretching out and is backed by a bullpen that ranks dead last in both ERA and WHIP. Houston’s offense is seeing the ball well after a five-game winning streak in which they swept the Twins and averaged 6.0 runs. By isolating the starters and avoiding Houston’s own shaky pen, Rockford projected Astros –0.5 F5 playable down to –120.

Kenny G called Houston –130 "very, very likely" to land in his pinned comment. The Astros have won four straight and are 26-13 at Minute Maid, while Minnesota limps in on a three-game skid. Simeon Woods Richardson’s 5.74 ERA and 7-run blow-up versus Texas make him a prime target for an Astros offense that ranks third in batting average and is finally stringing together crooked numbers (3-10-4-10-2 runs last five). Rookie lefty Brandon Walter has delivered back-to-back quality starts—five shutout frames at Tampa and six innings of two-run ball against Cleveland—and hands the ball to a bullpen sporting a 3.23 ERA (6th best). The Twins’ relief unit has regressed to 3.78, and their lineup has fallen to 17th in runs scored after averaging just 2.8 runs during the losing streak. Kenny projects Houston to control the game wire-to-wire and sees value down to –145.

Cash Out Sports Picks took Houston on the moneyline. The Astros have won four of the last five against Minnesota and face a Twins club that is 7-14 as a road underdog. Minnesota’s pitching staff is "battered and declining," while Houston’s arms are rounding into form. Simon Woods Richardson looked shaky in his return to the rotation, and the tout doubts he can succeed in Minute Maid Park versus a potent lineup. Given Minnesota’s streaky offense and hostile environment, Houston is the play.

Kenny G loves Houston at –125, arguing the line should be closer to –150 given Hunter Brown’s 8-3 record and 1.82 ERA. Brown just fanned nine Guardians despite walking five and earlier held Minnesota to two runs over six frames. The Astros have erupted for 24 runs in three games and boast an 8th-ranked team batting average. Their bullpen owns a sturdy 3.26 ERA and the club is 24-13 at Minute Maid. Joe Ryan is solid (2.96 ERA) but was hit for four earned by Houston in April and the Twins bullpen has drifted to 3.76. Minnesota’s offense has totaled only 17 runs in its last six and travels poorly (16-20 road record). Kenny called the Astros a "slam-dunk" side and expects Brown to outduel Ryan once again.

Guy Boston Sports recommended playing Jake Meyers Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs at –155. In seven career plate appearances against Joe Ryan, Meyers is 0-for-7. Ryan has strangled right-handed bats all season, holding them to a .184 average and .265 wOBA while his four-seam and slider each carry sub-.300 expected wOBAs. Meyers’ own batting average dips against righties, and his contact quality versus premium fastballs ranks in MLB’s 20th percentile. The tout acknowledged the juice but believes it’s justified, suggesting it could be tossed into parlay or DFS pick-em cards for added value.

Despite Joe Ryan’s six-game personal win streak, the tout is backing Houston because Hunter Brown looks like a Cy Young candidate (1.82 ERA, 0.96 WHIP overall; 0.88 ERA, .152 BAA in 30.2 IP at home). Brown’s whiff-heavy profile preys on a Twins lineup that strikes out frequently and has gone ice-cold the past two weeks. Minnesota’s bullpen is wobbling on the road, while the Astros are playing their best baseball of the year at Dakin Park and have historically barreled Ryan. All arrows point to the Astros moneyline.