Just A Bet Outside bet Noah Cameron over 16.5 outs recorded (-115 at DraftKings) in Wednesday’s start versus Cincinnati. Cameron has worked 6+ innings in all three MLB appearances, clearing the mark with 19, 19 and 21 outs. His underlying metrics impress: 2.12 xERA, 85th-percentile expected batting average, and sub-.100 xBA on both his change-up and slider. The rookie southpaw faces a Reds lineup that owns a 44 wRC+, .195 AVG and 4th-highest K-rate against lefties over the past three weeks. With Kansas City’s bullpen depleted after six relievers threw on consecutive days, manager Matt Quatraro should extend Cameron’s leash. The lefty has issued only one walk in his last two starts, keeping pitch count low. Steven projects 17-21 outs and is comfortable playing the over to -125.

Rockford labeled Kansas City a live dog and made them –140 favorites against Hunter Greene. Rookie Noah Cameron has yielded just two runs total across his first three MLB starts (0.92 ERA) and owns a 31% whiff rate on a deceptive changeup that neutralizes right-handed hitters. The Reds are hitting only .213 versus left-handed pitching, and Greene’s road ERA is nearly a run higher (4.38) than at Great American Ballpark. With the Royals bullpen ranking fifth in ERA and Greene failing to complete five innings in back-to-back starts, Rockford sees Kansas City’s pitching edge carrying the day.

Kingpin Sports backed the Royals moneyline because Daniel Lynch IV has been "lights out" with a 1.57 ERA against Brandon Singer’s 4.88. They expect Kansas City to extend its home roll with superior starting pitching.

Lonte Smith is taking Kansas City at roughly ‑105, trusting the rookie Avila to be just competent enough compared with the erratic Brady Singer. Smith pointed out that Cincinnati has been a poor road club all year and just blew an 8-3 lead Monday, hinting at a shaky bullpen and fragile mindset. The Royals have been streaky but generally play better at Kauffman, and Smith expects them to treat the series as a needed reset after falling behind 6-2 in the opener. He believes Singer’s 1.17 HR/9 makes him vulnerable to KC’s surging middle-order power and is betting that energy plus home field pushes the Royals to a series-evening win.

The tout likes the OVER after Monday’s 11-run shootout. Cincinnati has plated six-plus in four straight, while Kansas City’s bats should perk up against a slumping Brady Singer. Royals opener Daniel Lynch is only expected to cover an inning or two, exposing KC’s middle relief early. With both clubs swinging well and neither starter projected to work deep, Cash Out Sports Picks sees another high-scoring affair.

Kenny G likes Kansas City at –105, noting that a 3.20 bullpen ERA (5th-best in MLB) sets them up perfectly for a planned bullpen game. Opener Daniel Lynch IV brings a sparkling 1.57 ERA, and Kenny thinks the relief corps can carry six innings without issue. On the other side, Brady Singer’s 4.88 ERA and recent beat-downs by Houston and Atlanta make him a fade. The Reds’ once-reliable pen has ballooned to 4.11 and their lineup, while 9th in runs, is only 17th in AVG and 13th in SLG—hardly imposing away from Great American Ball Park. Trends line up too: Cincinnati is 15-11-1 to the under on the road, Royals 17-10 to the under at Kauffman, underscoring the value of a bullpen-driven grind. Because of the pitching edge late, Kenny says Royals –105 is likely to end up in his pinned comment.

Cash Out Sports Picks is taking Kansas City on the money line. The Royals are 17-10 at Kauffman and know ex-ace Brady Singer—now struggling with four straight rough outings for Cincinnati—inside and out. After dropping Monday’s opener, the handicapper expects a focused response from a club that generally plays its best baseball at home. Familiarity with Singer’s pitch mix plus favorable park splits leads the tout to label KC a buy-low spot.

Razzle likes Michael Lorenzen’s matchup if storms clear. Kansas City offers above-average strikeout upside and the park suppresses homers. Lorenzen’s 4.5 K-prop is juiced over, and the game’s 8-run total is shaded to the under, signaling pitcher-friendly conditions. Should the rain risk subside, Lorenzen jumps into his tournament pool as a salary saver with six-K, quality start potential.

Dylan Rockford said Kansas City’s money-line is a steal, noting he made the Royals –140 yet the market is still hanging plus money. He trusts Michael Lorenzen’s Jekyll-and-Hyde splits (19 home innings, 2 ER) and pointed out every one of his Kauffman starts has stayed under the posted total. With 13 mph winds blowing straight in and Cincinnati’s bullpen coming off a weekend meltdown, Rockford wants no part of full-game Reds exposure. He suggested pairing Royals ML with the first-five under and even sprinkled an over 17.5 outs prop on Nick Martinez because the Reds “burned everybody” when their pen imploded. “Dead under game, Royals should be favored,” he concluded.

Kenny G recommended laying the modest -120 on Kansas City, arguing the Royals hold clear intangible and statistical edges over Cincinnati. He noted Michael Lorenzen’s 3.77 ERA masks a string of strong starts and believes the veteran’s heavy ground-ball profile matches up well against a Reds lineup that ranks just 17th in batting average and has produced 0, 1 and 6 runs in three of its last five games. Lorenzen is backed by a bullpen sporting a 3.22 ERA—top-10 in MLB—while the Reds relief corps has ballooned to 4.11 and blew an 11–8 game to the Cubs on Sunday. Kenny also pointed out K.C.’s 17-9 home record and 17-9 under trend at Kauffman, indicators the market still underrates their pitching. With Nick Martinez carrying a 2-5 record despite solid surface numbers, Kenny expects Kansas City’s more reliable late-inning arms to swing a close contest and called the -120 tag “short for the better overall staff.”

It's The Final Round endorsed Bobby Witt Jr. for basic hit markets against Reds swingman Nick Martinez. Martinez relies on a sinker 26 % of the time yet opponents are batting .333 on the pitch, while Witt barrels sinkers at a .348 clip and owns a 37.5 % sweet-spot launch-angle rate (69th in MLB). Witt is on a six-game hitting streak and is 2-for-4 with a homer lifetime off Martinez (500 average). Over the last ten games he has hit the single market in 7 of 9 and recorded at least one hit in 8 of 10, but hasn’t been as reliable on total bases or hits+runs+RBIs. The tout therefore prefers Witt to record a hit or record a single as standalone wagers or in a modest hit parlay, avoiding the higher-variance combo props.

Wilkerson recommended Bobby Witt Jr. to homer at +525 against Reds swingman Nick Martinez. He labeled Martinez an "innings-eater" whose low-90s fastball and sub-25% whiff rate force him to live on grounders, a profile that leaves little margin for error. Witt already owns success in the tiny sample: a double and a home run in four at-bats versus Martinez. Given Witt’s well-documented elite bat speed and natural lift, Wilkerson believes Martinez’s contact-heavy approach creates the perfect setup for fireworks.

Peterson laid -116 with Kansas City, noting Michael Lorenzen’s 3.77 ERA and manageable 1.4 HR/9, then highlighting a Royals bullpen that ranks 5th in MLB with a 3.27 ERA. While Nick Martinez owns a respectable 3.43 ERA, Peterson stressed the number jumps to 4.18 on the road and that Cincinnati’s overall staff ERA (4.11, 18th) is mediocre. He made the Royals -134 and felt the superior relief corps would decide a close game.

Kenny G advised betting Under 8 runs in Royals-Twins. His case hinged on both clubs ranking bottom-10 in run production (KC 26th, MIN 21st) while each bullpen owns a sub-3.30 ERA. Michael Wacha (2.86 ERA; four quality starts in his last five) faces rookie Zevi Matthews, but Kenny stressed that the real angle is two sputtering offenses and two stadium trends: Kansas City is 16-8-1 to the under on the road and Minnesota is 14-8-1 to the under at Target Field. With rain in the area and both lineups lacking pop—KC sits 25th in OBP, MIN 20th in SLG—he believes eight runs is a tick too high and expects a 3-2 or 4-3 type affair.

Scott Reichel said the plus-105 on Kansas City is worth taking because Michael Wacha has been quietly excellent (2.86 ERA, three or fewer earned in all six starts) while rookie left-hander Anthony Matthews was chased after three innings in his lone big-league outing and still has control issues (three walks, 1.67 WHIP). Minnesota is 16-7 at Target Field, but Reichel believes that home dominance is already baked into the Twins’ –125 price. He expects Wacha to work into the sixth, lean on his change-up to neutralize the twins’ left-handed power and hand a lead to a rested Royals bullpen that owns a 3.14 ERA in May. He projected a 4-3 Kansas City win and advised grabbing the dog now before sharps push the line toward pick’em.

Mark labeled the Royals a “best bet” at +105 in Minnesota. His reasoning: Zebby Matthews has only one MLB start (3 IP, 4 ER) and the Twins lineup is shorthanded with Byron Buxton sidelined. Kansas City counters with Michael Wacha, whom Mark trusts more on the road than the rookie on the other side. He also does not trust the back half of the Twins’ bullpen and notes a classic zig-zag angle: Minnesota won yesterday, so he expects regression today. If KC’s bats wake up, Mark believes they can surpass their team total and cash the plus-money money-line.

Drew Martin said the Royals are live dogs in Minnesota because Michael Wacha is simply dealing right now. The 33-year-old owns a sub-3.00 ERA, has won each of his last two decisions, and has allowed only three earned runs over his last 18 innings (one earned run per start in that span). Meanwhile, rookie Zebby Matthews makes just his second MLB start for the Twins after posting a 7.00 ERA last season and surrendering four earned in three innings with three walks in his 2025 debut against Milwaukee. Martin labeled it a classic “wrong team favored” spot and advised grabbing Kansas City at +110.

Lonte Smith grabbed Kansas City at +140 and paired it with the full-game Under 7.5. Rookie southpaw Mitchell Cameron has yielded one total run across his first two big-league starts, tightening his command after five walks in the debut. Minnesota owns just a .223 average versus left-handed pitching and has scored three or fewer in seven of its last ten. Pablo Lopez has been sharp—two earned or fewer in six of seven—but the Royals are 7-3 in the last ten meetings and took three of four in April, with every game finishing Under and none reaching more than seven combined runs. Smith envisions another 3-2 type affair and would play Kansas City down to +125 while keeping the Under as a separate wager.

Jonathan India owns a .400 average (4-for-10, 1 HR) off Logan Webb and has recorded a knock in 15 of his past 19 games, prompting the tout to circle his hit prop.

Data Skrive projected a 4-3 final and advised taking the under on the 7.5-run total. Their write-up highlighted that Kansas City is scoring only 2.3 runs per game across its last 10 while San Francisco is at 4.2. Both clubs are also trending under—Kansas City games have finished below the total in seven of the past 10, and San Francisco has stayed under in six of the last 10. The Giants’ staff owns a 3.09 ERA in that window, and Oracle Park remains one of the league’s most pitcher-friendly venues, further supporting an under wager.

Whitchurch played OVER 1.5 walks for Michael Lorenzen at –180, projecting regression toward the veteran’s 8.5 % career BB% after a two-walk total across his last three starts. He emphasized that Lorenzen still handed out 13 free passes in six April outings and now faces San Francisco, the No. 3 lineup in walk rate versus righties (11.2 %). With Lorenzen’s zone rate down nearly three points year-over-year and the Giants rarely chasing, Collin expects the right-hander to revert to his usual two-plus passes.

Razzle prefers Lorenzen over Birdsong at Oracle Park. The right-hander has topped 20 DK points in three of his last five outings and benefits from a ballpark that suppresses power. Kansas City rarely strikes out, but San Francisco’s platoon-heavy lineup should feature enough lefties to align with Lorenzen’s splits. A modest 8-run total, 4.5 K-prop (under), and +180 Win odds keep him to GPPs, yet Razzle trusts his stability more than Birdsong’s uncertain pitch count.

Kenny g labeled the full-game Under 8 the ‘value side’ between the Royals and Giants. Michael Lorenzen (3-4, 3.76 ERA) has allowed three or fewer earned in four of his past five and hands the ball to a lights-out Kansas City bullpen sporting a 3.19 ERA. Offensively, the Royals are ice-cold—27th in runs, OBP and slugging, with two, zero and zero runs in their last three contests. San Francisco starts 23-year-old Hayden Birdsong, whose lone long-relief stint ended badly versus Arizona, but Kenny trusts MLB’s top bullpen behind him to yank the rookie quickly if needed. The Giants’ lineup has faded as well, putting up 3-1-9-0-2 in recent games and ranking 22nd in batting average, 17th in slugging. Trend support is strong: KC is 14-7-1 to the under on the road and San Francisco 13-10 to the under at Oracle Park. With two struggling offenses, a reliable KC pen and a quick hook for Birdsong, Kenny expects runs to be scarce and is betting the under at 8.

Smith is taking a first-five stab at Kansas City around +140 with Hayden Birdsong making his first official start for San Francisco. He does not trust Birdsong, whom he faded repeatedly last year, and expects the rookie to be held to a 60-pitch limit after functioning as a multi-inning reliever. Michael Lorenzen has been quietly effective—4-1 over his last five turns with a 3.19 ERA—and the KC bullpen grades out above average in leverage spots. With both offenses inconsistent, Smith believes the early matchup tilt toward Lorenzen plus the attractive number make the Royals a buy.

Matt Perrault laid –125 on the Royals team-total under 3.5 runs. His logic: Kansas City has failed to clear 3.5 in five straight, posting 1-3-3-0-2 runs since their seven-run outburst against Houston. The matchup gets even worse because they face Robbie Ray, who is 6-0 with a 3.04 ERA overall and a 2.32 ERA at Oracle Park while holding opponents to a .213 average. San Francisco is 6-0 in Ray starts and he has surrendered only eight earned runs in 31 home innings. Perrault expects the combination of Ray’s dominance and the Royals opening a West-Coast road trip to keep KC at three or fewer yet again.

Just A Bet Outside recommended the Royals team total under 3.5 at –115. The handicap centers on Robbie Ray’s current groove: the left-hander has surrendered only five earned runs and 15 hits across his previous four starts (25 IP) while registering 8-plus strikeouts in three of those outings. Even when Ray allowed three runs to an elite Arizona lineup last time out, hard contact was limited. His combination of a 31% whiff rate and a low opponents’ batting average (.211) makes stringing hits together difficult, a profile that dovetails with San Francisco’s spacious Oracle Park. Kansas City’s offense has cooled, posting a .299 road wOBA in May, and their 21.1% K-rate vs lefties means fewer productive balls in play against a walk-prone but elusive Ray. The tout also pointed out that San Francisco’s bullpen enters with a 3.42 ERA over the last two weeks, giving little room for late scoring. With cool Bay Area weather and a total of only seven, he prefers isolating the Royals’ ceiling under 3.5 runs for a half-unit.

Matt Perrault bet the Royals team-total UNDER 3.5 runs at +122. He noted Kansas City’s lineup is in a historic funk, scoring 0, 3, 3, and 1 run during its current four-game losing streak and topping 3 runs only once in the last seven contests. Perrault also highlighted Matthew Liberatore’s recent form for St. Louis: 6 IP/1 ER vs MIL, 6.2 IP/2 ER vs NYM, 6 IP/0 ER in a combined shutout of PHI, followed by 6 IP/2 ER and 5.2 IP/1 ER in his two most recent starts. With Liberatore rolling and the KC bats ice-cold, Perrault thinks the only realistic path to an OVER would be a rare Royals breakout he does not foresee.

Ryan Wormeli labeled Cole Ragans a premium buy-low, stressing that the Kansas City ace is pitching like a top-five starter despite a surface 4.20 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Statcast pegs his expected ERA at 2.31—nearly two full runs lower—backed by a 98th-percentile strikeout rate (65 K in 40.2 IP) and a career-best walk rate. A .375 BABIP and middling 66% left-on-base rate explain the gap, while his FIP (2.22), xFIP (2.25) and SIERA (2.33) all mirror the xERA. Wormeli also pointed to unlucky win totals (2 wins in 8 starts) and believes better run support will arrive. Rest-of-season he ranks Ragans fifth overall behind only Tarik Skubal, Paul Skenes, Garrett Crochet and Zack Wheeler, yet he thinks many managers still treat Ragans as merely top-12. He suggested dangling hitters in the James Wood/Wyatt Langford tier or even a rehabbing Ronald Acuna Jr. to close the deal, concluding that managers who strike now will roster a bona fide fantasy ace at a slight discount.

Bryan Power recommended laying the –0.5 run line with Kansas City in the first five innings of the I-70 opener. Power framed it as an "anti-swagger" spot for St. Louis after their nine-game win streak was snapped in Wednesday’s double-header split at Philadelphia. He does not buy the Cardinals long-term, pointing out they over-achieved Pythagorean expectation by seven wins last season. On the mound, he sees a sizeable edge: Cole Ragans still owns a sparkling 2.22 FIP and strong strike-out rate despite a rocky four-start stretch, while Andre Pallante carries a 5.06 FIP. Because bookmakers have baked the mismatch into the full-game moneyline, Power shortens the window to the first five where the pitching gap matters most and finds –115 juice acceptable.

Although not labeling it a best bet, Martin likes Kansas City at -150 with Cole Ragans toeing the slab. Ragans’ 4.20 ERA hides a sparkling 2.25 FIP and a 65-to-13 K/BB ratio that suggest he’s been unlucky. KC is 16-7 at Kauffman and owns one of baseball’s better bullpens, giving them a late-inning edge. Andre Pallante’s 28 K to 16 BB in 43 innings indicates he isn’t missing enough bats, something Martin has faded before. With temperatures over 80°F and a 15-mph breeze out to the outfield, he stayed off the total but expects the Royals staff to outshine St. Louis and rewarded KC moneyline backers.

Matt Perrault said the Kansas City Royals remain a team to short on offense and laid out why he is playing their team-total UNDER 4.5 runs tonight against St. Louis. He rattled off the Royals’ last ten run totals – 3, 4, 2, 10, 2, 1, 3, 7, 1, 3 – noting they cashed this UNDER in seven of those ten and have been even worse if you expand the sample back to recent series with the Astros (three straight unders), Rays (two of three), and Orioles (two of three). Perrault called the lineup "incredibly anemic" and expects that to continue versus Cardinals right-hander Andre Pallante, who owns a 3.52 ERA, 2-0 record, and .254 opponent average at home while surrendering just six earned runs in 15.1 innings. Even if Kansas City ultimately wins, Perrault does not see a realistic path to five runs, making the UNDER 4.5 a core leg of his Friday parlay.

Eric Lindquist labeled Bobby Witt Jr. a "chalk" 2-plus-hits bet versus Cardinals right-hander Andre Pallante, noting the prop could be priced close to even money despite Witt’s elite contact skills. Pallante is allowing a .299 expected batting average with limited swing-and-miss, while Witt sports a .312 xBA, top-of-the-league in-zone contact rate, and game-changing speed that turns borderline singles into infield hits. Lindquist projects a 50% probability of Witt collecting multiple hits, giving value up to roughly +150. He added that Mikel Garcia, Salvador Perez, and Michael Massey are viable secondary pieces but expects to lock in Witt’s prop once books post overnight lines.

Peterson laid -150 with Kansas City and still believes the Royals are cheap (his line -178). Cole Ragans’ 4.20 ERA comes with a sparkling 2.22 FIP, 14.4 K/9 and only 0.9 HR/9, indicating sharp positive regression ahead. Andre Pallante trends the opposite direction for St. Louis—4.36 ERA but an ugly 5.06 FIP thanks to 1.5 HR/9 and 3.5 BB/9. Throw in a bullpen edge (KC 3.11 ERA, 6th; STL 3.89 ERA, 16th) and Peterson expects the Royals to control the entire pitching matchup.

Osborne bet Michael Lorenzen under 17.5 recorded outs. Lorenzen owns stark home/road splits: 0.95 ERA at Kauffman versus 5.47 on the road, where he has failed to clear 17.5 outs in four of five starts. He now draws an Astros lineup that has finally awakened—third in OPS versus right-handed pitching over the past week and second in OPS at home over the past month. Facing a red-hot Houston offense in hitter-friendly Minute Maid, Osborne expects Kansas City manager Matt Quatraro to have a quick hook if traffic stacks up, making 6.0 innings unlikely.

Guy Boston played Bobby Witt over 1.5 total bases at –130 on FanDuel for the late game in Houston. Witt has topped this mark in 6 of his last 10 outings with 2.7 TB per game and owns a 57% season hit rate (25 of 44). The head-to-head record is even better: 8-for-12 (67%) against the Astros dating back to last year, including 4-of-5 in 2025. Witt’s .319 overall average climbs to .393 against left-handed pitchers with a .440 BABIP and 45.5% extra-base-hit rate. He will see rookie southpaw Colton Gordon, who has yet to throw a major-league inning, giving the Royals’ leadoff man a significant experience and form edge. Boston called the –130 price “pretty solid value” for a hitter sporting elite splits versus lefties and a strong history against Houston.

Cash Out Sports Picks is riding Kansas City’s money line. The Royals have won six of their last seven road games and are 4-0 behind Michael Lorenzen, who has yielded just seven runs over his last 23.1 IP. Kansas City’s pitching staff owns MLB’s best May ERA at 2.54, and its bullpen ranks fourth overall (3.10 ERA). Houston counters with Colton Gordon making his MLB debut and a staff that has surrendered five-plus runs in two of the last three while sporting a 4.50 May ERA. KC has taken three of the last four head-to-head and, with a steadier arm and pen advantage, is the preferred side.

Lindquist leaned toward the Royals moneyline because rookie left-hander Colton Gordon makes his MLB debut for Houston. Gordon pitched well in Triple-A Sugar Land despite hitter-friendly PCL parks, but Lindquist cautioned that translating to the majors is no guarantee, especially against a Kansas City lineup loaded with high-contact bats at the top. He highlighted Gordon’s limited walk issues (only two outings with more than one free pass) yet questioned whether his stuff will miss enough bats immediately. Given the inherent volatility of a debut and the Royals’ knack for stringing hits, Lindquist sees value if the price stays near even money and intends to monitor early movement before upgrading the play from a lean to an official like.

Dylan Rockford grabbed Kansas City +106, calling the Royals one of baseball’s hottest clubs outside the Mets. He trusts veteran Michael Lorenzen over probable Houston call-up Colton Gordon, noting Lorenzen’s experience, Kansas City’s top-four bullpen, and the fact that the Royals actually score more on the road (4.9 runs per game) than at Kauffman. With Houston’s rotation in flux and the Astros still sub-.500 at home, Rockford believes the wrong team is favored at plus money.

Calling it an "extra" value wager, Perrault suggested taking the Royals under 3.5 runs at +112. A listener has been blindly cashing this prop for a month thanks to Kansas City’s chronic scoring issues: recent outputs of 1-7-1-1-2-10-2-4-3-11-4-0. Against Houston specifically, they’ve produced 2, 2, 3, 7 and 1 runs. Tonight they face rookie left-hander Colton Gordon, while Michael Lorenzen toes the slab for KC in what projects as a low-scoring matchup. Perrault emphasized that even during their rare victories, the Royals typically don’t need much offense, making another sub-4 run night a worthy plus-money stab.

Polzin urged bettors to slam the UNDER on Bobby Witt fantasy prop. The young star owns just 2 hits in 16 at-bats versus Framber Valdez ( .125 AVG ) and has struck out 5 times. With Valdez’s elite sinker generating weak contact and the Royals projecting for one of the slate’s lowest team totals, Polzin doesn’t see a path for Witt to hit the over without a fluky extra-base hit.

Polzin highlighted Hunter Renfroe’s brutal splits against Valdez—just 2 hits in 16 AB ( .125 ) with 6 strikeouts and 2 walks. With a 37.5% whiff rate in the matchup, Renfroe profiles as an easy UNDER on fantasy points or total bases. Polzin added that Valdez’s knack for keeping the ball on the ground neutralizes Renfroe’s pull-side power.

The veteran catcher is another fade for Polzin. Perez has managed only 1 hit (a solo homer) in 10 trips against Valdez, with 4 punch-outs and a single walk. That translates to a .100 average and a 40% K-rate. Polzin noted Perez is already in a mini-slump and expects Valdez’s heavy sinkers inside to continue tying him up. He prefers UNDER Perez fantasy score or total bases.

Polzin targeted Maikel Garcia for UNDER fantasy points against Astros lefty Framber Valdez. In 12 prior at-bats versus Valdez, Garcia has only 1 hit ( .083 AVG ) with 2 strikeouts. Given Valdez’s 64% ground-ball rate and plus curveball, Polzin thinks Garcia will struggle to reach base, let alone produce counting stats. The Royals are slight underdogs and carry a low implied run total, further reducing Garcia’s upside.

Lonte Smith grabbed the Royals at +120 because Kris Bubic is quietly shoving: 12 consecutive scoreless innings, zero homers allowed in his last five starts and only one outing with more than two runs surrendered in that span. Smith noted the contact suppression—just 1 HR over five games—makes Kansas City live even in a tough park. Framber Valdez, meanwhile, has dropped four of his five decisions and has been tagged for 11 earned across two of those turns. Houston’s form has been see-saw at best, alternating wins and losses for two weeks. Given the Royals’ steadier recent play and Bubic’s spike in swinging-strike rate, Smith declared the underdog price too tempting to pass.

Lindquist advised targeting Bobby Witt Jr. for 2-plus hits against Framber Valdez. Valdez owns a .270+ expected batting average this season—well above his career norms—and the Royals torched him early on Monday. Witt already ranks near the top of MLB in multi-hit games, and Minute Maid’s short Crawford Boxes turn many would-be doubles into long singles, inflating his hit equity. Given Witt’s elite contact profile and Valdez’s surprising vulnerability, Lindquist expects sportsbooks to hang one of the best two-hit prices on the board and is eager to pounce.

The tout’s total play was the under. Both clubs sit inside the top-10 in staff ERA (Royals 2.99, Astros 3.44) and have cashed the under in seven of their last ten games. Offensively, Houston is 19th in runs while Kansas City is bottom-five; each ranks in the league’s bottom seven in homers. Recent series history also leans low scoring — their last ten head-to-head meetings produced just 76 total runs (7.6 per game). With KC’s punchless offense versus a locked-in Valdez and Wacha’s ability to limit damage, the tout expects a tight, low-scoring affair that stays under the posted number.

Although he leans Houston to win, Lindquist also flagged Michael Wacha strikeout overs as a sneaky plus-EV angle once books post numbers. Houston is expected to roll out nine right-handed bats, a profile that historically struggles with Wacha’s cambio. Even with decreased change-up volume, his whiff rate on the pitch sits above 32%, and the Astros carry a 24.3% K-rate versus right-handed change-ups this season. Lindquist plans to ‘ladder’ – taking the standard over plus incremental alt lines – if books open the prop in the 4.5–5.5 range.

Drew Martin grabbed Kansas City at +104, arguing the wrong team is favored. Houston turns to 26-year-old rookie reliever Gusto for a spot start, and the Astros’ key bullpen arms have been overworked in the last four games. Michael Wacha sports a sub-3.00 ERA and just blanked his last opponent over seven frames. Four starts ago he tossed six shutout innings with six strikeouts against these same Astros, giving him 12 consecutive scoreless innings versus Houston dating back to last season. With a taxed Houston staff and Wacha’s proven success against this lineup, Martin prefers the Royals in Minute Maid Park.

Morgan labeled Bobby Witt Jr. the slate’s premier spend-up bat at $4,200. Witt is slashing .323 with five homers, 17 doubles, and 14 steals, and since the start of 2023 he has a .904 OPS versus right-handers that jumps to .994 at Kauffman Stadium. He now faces Lucas Giolito, whose 5.11 FIP in 2023 and 4.86 mark through two post-injury starts suggest the righty remains hittable. Morgan expects Witt’s combination of power, speed, and elite home splits to torch Giolito and anchor Royal stacks.

Peterson laid -123 with Kansas City (priced at -139) because Lucas Giolito has already coughed up nine runs in 9.2 innings and carried a 4.88 ERA last year with 1.5 HR/9 and over three walks per nine. By contrast, Seth Lugo brings a 2.84 ERA, supported by the game’s No. 4 bullpen (2.76 ERA). Peterson thinks Giolito’s homer problem against an improving KC lineup makes the Royals rightful chalk.

B Wade hammered Salvador Perez over 1.5 total bases versus Lucas Giolito, citing a jaw-dropping 15-for-31 career line (.484) in the matchup. That sample includes plenty of extra-base knocks and represents 31 plate appearances—large enough for Wade to dismiss randomness. Perez is hitting .252 against right-handers versus .239 overall, has eclipsed 1.5 total bases in six of his last 10, and remains the lineup’s primary power source. Wade preferred total bases to the 2.5 H+R+RBI line because Perez often finishes with exactly two, making TB the cleaner angle. He paired the play on Better, leveraging its daily promo boosts for a 3x payout.