B Wade said Noah Cameron is a strong under play at 2.5 earned runs. Cameron did not allow more than one earned run in any of his first five starts and has cleared 2.5 only twice all season, both times against top-five line-ups (Dodgers and Yankees). His WHIP sits below 1.00 and his ERA is under 3.00. The Mets strike fear against right-handers but are far less potent versus lefties: Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor both lose over 100 points of OPS against southpaws, and New York’s road wRC+ drops 14 points compared to at Citi Field. With Kansas City at home and Cameron’s splits lining up, Wade feels confident paying ‑250 juice on the earned-runs under.

Within the same handicap, Kenny G labeled Kansas City +110 a "significant lean" and possible Dog of the Day. The play is a straight fade of Frankie Montas, who has allowed eight earned and three homers across his last 9.2 innings and shows a 6.14 ERA through only four post-injury starts. Kansas City counters with Michael Lorenzen, fresh off seven scoreless frames with seven strikeouts against Arizona; at home this season Lorenzen owns a 3.62 ERA. Kenny trusts the Royals’ dominant bullpen to shorten the game and believes their light-hitting lineup can still scratch out runs against Montas and a Mets relief corps trending the wrong way (ERA up to 3.86). With Kansas City having won four of five before last night’s loss, he makes their implied 47% win probability look cheap and is happy to grab the plus money.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed Kansas City on the moneyline. Mets starter Frankie Montas is easing back from the IL and has been roughed up for 10 runs on 15 hits in 14.2 innings. Conversely, Michael Lorenzen has allowed only three runs over his last 11.2 frames and owns a 3.79 ERA across 35.2 home innings while holding opponents to a .259 average. With the Royals winning seven of their past ten and the more trustworthy starter on the hill, the tout prefers KC at home.

Just A Bet Outside took Michael Wacha under 17.5 outs recorded (essentially under six full innings) at -120 for a half-unit. Wacha has stayed below this number in 10 of 18 starts and is clearly fading: 12 earned runs, 21 hits and seven walks over his last 15 innings. He has allowed eight or more hits in three of his past five outings, pushing his WHIP skyward. The spot worsens against the Mets, who lead MLB in pitches seen per plate appearance and forced eight of the previous 10 right-handed starters to fall short of 18 outs (ignoring an odd double-header blip). Kansas City’s bullpen is fully rested after yesterday’s day off and with the All-Star break looming, the tout does not expect the 34-year-old Wacha to get any leash once he runs into traffic.

Eric Pathi recommended betting the Kansas City Royals moneyline at roughly +120 against the Mets on July 11. Pathi leaned on his long-running "underdog on a winning streak, off rest, back home" system, noting that Kansas City enters the series having won four straight and did not play Thursday. He highlighted that the spot historically produces strong ROI because public money gravitates toward the supposedly better favorite while the rested home dog continues positive momentum. Michael Wacha draws the start for the Royals opposite Kodai Senga for New York, giving Kansas City a viable pitching matchup to keep the streak alive. Pathi framed the Royals as the best complimentary play for Friday’s slate within his Dime Club card.

Dylan Rockford preferred Under 8.5 (–105) in Pirates-Royals, saying his model spits out 7.2. Kansas City averages just 2.98 runs per game at home and faces a stiff wind blowing in. Pittsburgh’s .218 average against southpaws suggests little threat to Kris Bubic, whose starts at Kauffman have gone under in five of eight. Bailey Falter’s 0.9 HR/9 and 35% soft-contact rate give him a chance to keep the Royals’ middling lineup in check. Rockford will bet the under down to 8 and said he would sprinkle plus-money alternate totals if the market climbs.

Scott Reichel laid –1.5 runs with Kansas City at +110, trusting Kris Bubic’s 2.36 ERA to stifle a Pirates lineup that has scored two total runs in its last four games. Reichel noted Pittsburgh’s 84 wRC+ versus lefties and Bailey Falter’s recent regression—three or more earned in three of his past four outings with a declining ground-ball rate. The Royals bullpen owns a 3.18 ERA at Kauffman, giving him confidence to cover late, while Kansas City’s offense faces a wind-aided 10-mph jet stream to right field. Reichel projected the final score 5-2 and would play the run line down to –115.

Just A Bet Outside pointed to Chris Bubich as a viable over on his strikeout prop when he faces Pittsburgh. The Pirates have the third-highest K-rate against southpaws over the past three weeks (27.2%). Bubich has recorded six or more strikeouts in five of his last seven outings and owns a 26.2% strike-out rate at Kauffman Stadium. His punch-out percentage climbs to 26.6% versus right-handed hitters, valuable because the Pirates line-up skews right-handed. Although Bubich’s recent form has dipped slightly, the matchup and underlying K-rate still make the over worth a look in betting markets and for DFS pitcher pools.

For his best bet, Drew Martin hammered the under 8.5 in Pirates-Royals. He called it a meeting of two bottom-three offenses—Pittsburgh has scored just three total runs in its last four games, and Kansas City is equally inept, especially versus lefties. On the mound, southpaw Kris Bubic is in peak form: sub-2.50 ERA, sub-2.80 FIP, 107 strikeouts, and a seven-inning gem against Arizona last week. Opposite him, Bailey (Brady) Falter has reinvented himself by adding a changeup, rolling to a 3.69 ERA in a big ballpark against a weak lineup. Martin added that the Pirates’ bullpen owns the lowest WHIP in MLB over the last 30 days, while neither offense hits left-handers better than bottom-five. All signs point to runs being at a premium, so Martin played the UNDER 8.5 rather than lay the steep –190 with Kansas City.

Malcom Bamford doubled down on the low-scoring script, playing an alternate under 5.5 instead of the standard 8.5. He cited Lugo’s sparkling 2.65 ERA and a six-start streak of allowing no more than one earned run, plus Keller’s 3.16 road ERA despite a lackluster win–loss record. Pittsburgh’s offense has been shut out three straight, and Bamford noted the bizarre sequence of three shutout wins followed by three shutout losses—a sign the bats are ice-cold again. He also mentioned trade rumors linking Keller to the Mets, suggesting the right-hander is pitching for a contender’s attention. With both clubs trending under and neither lineup imposing, Bamford expects a 4-1 Royals victory and prefers the juicier price on the alt under.

Drew Martin laid –135 with the Kansas City Royals. He highlighted that Pittsburgh is 12-32 on the road and was just swept without scoring a single run by Seattle. Seth Lugo is having a career year (2.60 ERA overall, sub-1.00 over his last 30 innings) and those stingy outings came versus the Yankees, Dodgers and Mariners—far better offenses than the Pirates’ bottom-five unit. Conversely, Mitch Keller draws little support from a lineup that sits bottom five against right-handers for the full season. With Kansas City at home in a pitcher-friendly park, Martin expects Lugo to control a weak foe and cash the short price.

Bill Harrelson advised taking Jac Caglione lower than 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs. The rookie is mired in a deep slump, staying under in nine of his last ten and 18 of his last 20 games. For the 2025 season he has failed to clear the line in 24 of 30 outings (80%) despite averaging four plate appearances. Caglione recently went 0-for-4 with no counting stats versus the Pirates and is batting just .129 against right-handed pitching compared to a .148 overall average. Underdog is the only book offering the prop, which Harrelson interprets as the market leaning to the under.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Kansas City Royals on the moneyline. The tout cited Kansas City’s clear pitching advantage: Cameron (last name not given) has been "looking sharp" while Pirates left-hander Andrew Heaney owns a 5.79 road ERA. The Royals bullpen is sixth in MLB with a 3.56 ERA compared to Pittsburgh’s 11th-ranked 3.67 unit, and KC’s lineup has crushed lefties all year. Pittsburgh has been dreadful away from PNC Park and has dropped three straight at Kauffman despite winning four of the last six overall meetings. Those factors, plus Kansas City’s better overall record, led the tout to label the Royals the superior side play.

Just A Bet Outside hammered the Royals’ team-total under 4.5 runs at –118. He ran through an avalanche of data showing why Kansas City simply does not hit at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals have stayed under 4.5 runs in 38 of 44 home games (86%) and in nine of their last ten at home they are averaging just 2.1 runs. In eight home games against a left-handed starter they are 8-for-8 to the under, posting a microscopic 1.75 runs per game. Monday’s lefty is Andrew Heaney, who has held right-handed bats to a .220 average, .392 slug and .301 wOBA while allowing two or fewer earned runs in six of his last ten outings. Heaney’s blow-ups have come against elite offenses (five ER at Arizona, seven ER at Milwaukee), a tier the host does not put KC in. Even if Heaney only gives Pittsburgh five solid innings, the Pirates’ bullpen has been lights-out—No. 1 in ERA over the last 30 days at 1.99 with a still-solid 4.00 xFIP. With a lefty that profiles well against KC’s righty-heavy lineup and a dominant relief corps behind him, the tout does not see the Royals reaching five runs for the 39th time at home.

Eric Lindquist advised betting Noah Cameron under 2.5 earned runs in Tuesday’s start versus Pittsburgh. Lindquist loves that Cameron owns a 2.56 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and has worked between 80-88 pitches in four straight outings, allowing the Royals to pull him before third-time-through penalties show up. Kansas City’s spacious Kauffman Stadium and a game-time cross-field wind further suppress run creation. The matchup is ideal: the Pirates rank dead last (sub-70 wRC+) against left-handed pitching and just produced a .215 team average on their recent West-Coast swing. Cameron’s only clunker came against the Dodgers’ buzz-saw lineup; Lindquist expects the soft-hitting Bucs to struggle to string rallies together, making the plus-money UNDER a bet worth chasing down to –150.

B Wade projected Brady Singer to allow fewer than 5.5 hits against Miami. Singer has stayed under that mark in 11 of 17 starts (65%). Overall he’s surrendering only 4.7 hits per outing, but at Kauffman Stadium that number drops to 3.6. The right-hander has exceeded 5.5 hits at home just twice all season. Wade also noted Singer’s recent history versus the Marlins: five hits allowed last year and just four in April’s meeting. Given Miami’s stagnant offense and Singer’s pronounced home/road split, Wade likes the under on 5.5 hits allowed.

Bill Harrelson said bettors should take Bobby Witt Jr. for more than 1.5 total bases against the Pirates. Witt has cashed this number in 7 of his last 10 and 14 of his last 20, averaging 4.5 plate appearances and 1.5 hits per game during the stretch. Overall in 2025 he is hitting the line at a 55% clip. The key angle is Witt’s dominance versus left-handers: he owns a .343 average in 75 plate appearances against southpaws compared to .293 overall, and he is 5-for-10 lifetime off today’s starter Andrew Heaney. Harrelson called those splits “diabolical” and expects at least one extra-base knock with Kansas City’s offense rolling.

Mike DFS Army recommended the OVER 4.5 strikeouts for Royals lefty Noah Cameron against Pittsburgh. Cameron has cleared this line in three of his last five starts, and the matchup is ideal: the Pirates own the fourth-highest strikeout rate in MLB at 23.6 %. DraftKings is hanging the over at −125 juice, but there’s no vig on PrizePicks. Mike’s prop tool assigns a 51.3 % hit probability, making Cameron a strong complementary leg alongside the Sanchez under.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Royals on the full-game money line. The tout highlighted Arizona’s decision to push 35-year-old Anthony DeSclafani into his first start of the season after just four relief appearances, one of which unraveled for two homers in two innings against Toronto. He expects a de-facto bullpen game for the Diamondbacks, noting their relief corps has struggled to find rhythm when asked to cover bulk frames. Kansas City counters with steady rotation piece Michael Lorenzen, and while Lorenzen owns a 4.8+ ERA he has at least worked five innings in nine straight outings. The bigger edge, according to the capper, comes at the plate: Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez are all healthy and swinging well, propelling KC to 8.4 runs per game over their last five. Arizona, meanwhile, may be without Corbin Carroll (sore wrist) and has three other regulars on the injury report. Given those roster realities, Cash Out Sports Picks expects the Royals’ deeper, healthier lineup to punish a patch-work pitching plan and cash the money line.

The tout leaned Royals +1.5 (or straight spread) thanks to Kansas City’s 70 % cover rate as a road underdog and 67.4 % ATS mark away overall. Arizona covers only 34.1 % at home and 48.5 % in interleague play. Anthony DeSclafani makes his first start of the season and was torched for two homers in a two-inning Blue Jays cameo, whereas Michael Lorenzen provides stability in the Royals rotation. Kansas City also covers 55.3 % after losses, while Arizona manages just 42.2 % after wins—further tilting the spread angle toward the visitors.

Lonte Smith prefers Kansas City on the first-five line behind Kris Bubich rather than trusting either bullpen. Bubich has been lights-out away from Kauffman Stadium (1.80 road ERA) and the Royals’ bats need only scratch out a run or two to cash because Arizona’s relief corps owns one of baseball’s worst late-inning ERAs. Smith acknowledged Eduardo Rodriguez’s recent form but still sees value in a coin-flip first half that removes the Diamondbacks’ shaky pen from the equation.

Adam Rosenberg grabbed Kansas City TO TURN A DOUBLE PLAY at –120 in their matchup with Arizona. The bet is built around lefty Kris Bubich, who has already induced 12 double-play balls this season thanks to a 53% ground-ball rate and a heavy sinker/change-up mix. The Diamondbacks rank top-10 in ground-ball percentage and have hit into multiple DPs in four of their last seven contests, making them a ripe target. Rosenberg added that Bubich is coming off extra rest, which should sharpen his command and keep the ball down. One well-placed two-hopper is all that’s needed, and the price is short enough for him to label it a ‘miscellaneous must-add’ to the card.

Just A Bet Outside finished his parlay with Royals UNDER 6.5 runs. Kansas City averages only 3.3 runs per game and has scored six or fewer in 75 of 87 contests. Their wRC+ versus righties is third-worst over the last three weeks and now they travel to MLB’s most suppressive venue, T-Mobile Park. Bryan Woo owns a 2.08 ERA, .174 opponent average, and 0.82 WHIP at home, allowing one or zero earned in four of six starts. With Woo’s elite command, a spacious outfield, and Seattle’s strong bullpen backing him, the Royals would need to double their season average to bust this under—an outcome the host deemed highly improbable.

Lindquist grabbed Royals +1.5 runs behind rookie left-hander Noah Cameron, projecting a pitcher’s duel with Logan Gilbert in spacious T-Mobile Park. Cameron owns a 2.79 ERA and 3.64 xERA over a 750-pitch sample, while Seattle’s 109 wRC+ versus southpaws is built on contact more than slug, something Lindquist says plays down in that park. He expects Gilbert to "mow down" Kansas City bats but still prefers the insurance run because his model makes this total several tenths under the market and gives K.C. roughly a 60 % chance to stay within a run. If the game trends to the under as he anticipates, the +1.5 becomes even more valuable.

Bobby Witt Jr. is 5-for-11 (.455) with a homer off Gilbert and has hits in eight of his last ten (12 of 14 overall). The tout suggests riding a Witt 1+ hit or total bases over given the favorable history and current form.

Lindquist likes attacking Bobby Witt Jr.’s two-plus total bases (or hits) prop despite spacious T-Mobile Park. He pointed out that the matchup is NOT against top prospect Emerson Hancock; instead Kansas City gets a softer Seattle arm, giving Witt a clearer path to extra-base production. Witt owns elite underlying numbers—113 mph max-EV, 90th-percentile sprint speed and a 40% hard-hit rate—that play anywhere, so Lindquist is comfortable betting the over even in the league’s most run-suppressing stadium.

Just A Bet Outside is considering Kansas City money-line at +140, arguing the gap between Michael Wacha and George Kirby is narrower than the price suggests. Wacha has thrown six-plus innings in four of his last five outings, while Kirby has logged just 11 strikeouts in his last 16 frames after an outlier 14-K game. Seattle’s offense ranks near the bottom of MLB in home wRC+, and T-Mobile Park will have wind blowing in. The Mariners enter off a draining series with Texas that featured two extra-inning games and heavy bullpen use. Conversely, KC’s lineup has travelled well, producing better road numbers all season. The tout envisions a low-scoring, late-inning coin-flip that offers value at +140.

The host listed Bobby Witt Jr. as a worthwhile add to hit parlays. Witt owns a .333 career line (3-for-9) off Drew Rasmussen and has logged a hit in seven straight contests (data current through June 23). That combination of recent consistency and mild BvP success made him one of only three supplemental matchups the tout trusted on a light board.

Lonte Smith split his stake between Royals first five and full-game money lines at +120 because he trusts Kris Bubic more than Taj Bradley in this matchup. Tampa is smashing righties lately (.320 average, 7.3 runs per nine last ten) but owns a bottom-five OPS versus lefties, and Bubic has been excellent at Kauffman Stadium, allowing just seven earned across his last six home starts. Smith admitted Bubic has yielded eight runs in his last two outings but noted those came on the road. He also cited Kansas City’s surprising dominance of the Rays—7-3 in the last ten meetings, including an April sweep—and believes familiarity helps the Royals while Tampa begins a heavy road-trip portion of its schedule after playing 50 of 78 at home.

Romanelli took Kansas City on the road, citing Seth Lugo’s steady run-prevention (2.79 ERA over his last five appearances) and a suddenly lively Royals lineup averaging 5.4 runs per game the past week. He expects KC’s right-hand heavy order to jump on Randy Vasquez early—Vasquez owns a .311 opponent batting average the first time through and a 46% hard-hit rate. Ron also trusts a Royals bullpen that has shaved its collective ERA to 3.25 in June, while San Diego’s late-inning group has coughed up leads in three of its last four. With Lugo providing length and the offense trending up, Romanelli gladly grabbed the plus money on the visitors.

Just A Bet Outside doubled down on backing Kansas City at +155, calling the number a clear market overreaction to Nick Pivetta’s superiority over Michael Lorenzen. He acknowledged Pivetta’s sparkling home resume (sub-3.00 ERA, 29% strikeout rate at Petco) and Lorenzen’s shaky 4.71 road ERA, yet argued the gap is baked in twice. Padres bats have generated only 3.2 runs a game over their last nine and own the NL’s second-worst hard-hit rate this month (31%). By fading that cold offense, the pitching mismatch matters less, and his own projections make the Royals closer to +130. He labeled the money-line play his “underdog special” and second-best bet of the slate.

Just A Bet Outside took a half-unit stab on Kansas City +155, framing it as the classic let-down spot for San Diego. The Padres stumble home after an emotional, fight-filled series with the rival Dodgers that ended late, while the Royals flew in earlier from Texas and should be rested. KC’s sticks are humming—16 runs versus the Rangers and a 5-run per game average in their last ten. Over the past month, they rank ninth in road wRC+ and eighth in slugging against right-handed pitching. Although Nick Pivetta grades out better than Michael Lorenzen on paper, the host expects San Diego to rotate regulars or play flat, giving the suddenly hot Royals offense a real chance to steal the opener.

Just A Bet Outside pointed out Mark Canha’s long-term success against Patrick Corbin – 13 hits in 29 career at-bats (.448) with plenty of extra-base damage. Corbin’s 6.00+ ERA and sub-10% swinging-strike rate make him extremely targetable, while Canha’s underlying metrics (career-best 11.6% barrel rate this year) suggest the veteran is still squaring up lefties. The tout said he’ll be looking at Canha for total bases props, HRR markets, or a value bat in DFS stacks against Washington’s bullpen that ranks bottom-five in xFIP.

Despite dropping the first two games of the set, Cash Out Sports Picks laid the juice with Kansas City. Prior to this series, the Royals were 3-0 in their last three home meetings with Oakland and own the superior roster. Rookie starter Noah Cameron is off to a "red-hot" MLB debut, giving KC the pitching edge. With home-field advantage and more talent top-to-bottom, the tout expects the Royals to avoid a sweep.

Guy Boston Sports is returning to Kansas City after yesterday’s 6-4 loss, backing the Royals at –150 or better and sprinkling the full-game Over 8.5. He views Jacob Lopez as a regression candidate: prior to last week’s quality start, Lopez had been tagged for 15 hits and 10 earned runs across 8.2 innings. The Royals own advantages in starting pitching, bullpen depth and lineup depth, plus Kauffman Stadium will be 90 °F with a light breeze—prime run-scoring weather that historically bumps HR Factor by 12 %. If books post the Royals around –145 (he cited –143 on the Novig exchange), he’ll play the money line and add the over given the park and pitching dynamics.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Kansas City Royals moneyline, laying out a clear pitching and bullpen advantage. He pointed to Oakland’s disastrous 6.11 bullpen ERA—the worst in baseball—and Jacob Lopez’s rough transition to the rotation (19.2 IP, 16 ER across his five starts, 0–4 record, 6.00 season ERA, 1.71 WHIP, .293 opponent average). Meanwhile, Michael Lorenzen is coming off a six-inning, one-hit gem versus the White Sox and faces an Athletics lineup batting only .227 over its last six contests. Even if Lorenzen regresses to the form that saw him allow 4+ runs in three of his prior four outings, the tout trusts Kansas City’s sturdy pen (3.45 ERA) to slam the door late. The Royals’ bats are heating up (.261 last six games) and should make solid contact against Lopez early, setting up an eventual bullpen mismatch that tips the full-game result in Kansas City’s favor.

Perrault’s second leg is Royals moneyline at home against Oakland. He cited Michael Wacha’s dominant Kauffman form (1.80 ERA, .201 opponent AVG, eight earned over 40 IP) and Kansas City’s urgency after nine straight losses to New York. The Athletics rank bottom-3 in both wOBA and runs per game, and road starter Luis Severino carries a 0.87 road ERA that Perrault thinks is unsustainable given Oakland’s anemic offense. He trusts Wacha’s consistency and the A’s 14-21 road mark to get the Royals back in the win column.

It's The Final Round backed Vinnie Pasquantino to record a hit against Luis Severino, noting that left-handed hitters have torched Severino for a .344 average over his last three outings. Pasquantino is on a heater: .500 average in the past 10 days (27 PA), hits in 12 straight games and 22 of his last 24 overall. He has also cleared his Hits+Runs+RBIs line in nine of the last ten. The tout called him "one of the hottest batters in MLB" and a perfect parlay partner with Turner.

Kenny G told listeners the Royals are worth a sprinkle at +122 and tagged them as a potential "dog of the day." His logic is that New York is starting rookie right-hander Will Warren on the road, while Kansas City counters with veteran Seth Lugo, whom Kenny expects to rebound after a rare rough outing. Despite KC’s anemic offense (28th in runs, 24th in slugging), the club owns a respectable 19-15 home mark and has cashed the under in 20 of 34 at Kauffman, a sign their pitching usually keeps games competitive. The Yankees travel well (MLB-best 20-13 road record) but the –145 price feels steep to lay behind an unproven arm. With the Royals trying to avoid a sweep, a sturdier starter, and plus money in their pocket, Kenny sees enough edges to justify taking the shot on Kansas City.

It’s The Final Round highlighted Vinnie Pasquantino as Thursday’s premier prop target, either solo or in a parlay. Yankees rookie Will Warren has been touched up by lefties for a .308 average over his last three starts, while Pasquantino is scorching right-handed pitching with a .522 batting average (26 PA) in the past 10 games. The slugger has cleared his simple hit prop in 10 straight contests, has cashed Hits+Runs+RBIs in nine of ten, and has exceeded 1.5 total bases in five of his last seven. Even his RBI (6/10) and run (5/7) props show profitability. The tout urged bettors to ride the hot hand until the market adjusts.

B Wade likes Ryan O'Hearn to exceed 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs against Casey Mize and the Tigers. O'Hearn owns a 6-for-11 (.545) career line with two home runs off Mize, who is 6-1 with a 2.90 ERA. O'Hearn is batting .323 versus right-handers overall this season and was on a hot streak before a quiet game Tuesday. Wade expects the batter-pitcher dominance and platoon advantage to show up again and is betting the over.

B Wade is taking Noah Cameron under 2.5 earned runs allowed. The rookie left-hander has surrendered only three runs through 31 innings (0.87 ERA, 0.79 WHIP) across five big-league starts, yielding a single run apiece to St. Louis, Minnesota, and Cincinnati. Wade notes that unfamiliarity with Cameron’s repertoire gives him an edge the first time clubs see him, and the Yankees have been streaky of late. As long as Cameron limits New York to two or fewer, the prop cashes, and Wade expects just that.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed Kansas City after last night’s bullpen meltdown. He highlighted the Royals’ fundamentals (only 27 errors all season, bullpen 3.35 ERA) and Michael Wacha’s recent heater—fewer than two earned runs allowed in four of his past five starts while working 6+ innings in 9 of 12 outings. Chicago’s offense ranks 28th in batting average and historically struggles with Wacha (.303 collective BA but little damage). Adrian Houser has given up just 3 ER in 18.1 IP, yet the tout noted a ‘small-sample mirage’ and pointed out KC’s .270 team average over the last week plus a .303 career mark against Houser. Expecting revenge and the clearly better club, he took the Royals moneyline.

Drew Martin took Royals +112 in St. Louis, trusting rookie left-hander Noah Cameron’s 1.00 ERA through four MLB starts (26 IP, only 13 hits—one every two innings). Cameron has worked six-plus frames each time out and faces a Cardinals lineup that has struggled versus lefties. Miles Mikolas opposes him with declining velocity and just 34 strikeouts in 55 innings, leaving little margin for error. Kansas City’s bullpen grades out better than St. Louis’s, giving the underdog added late-game equity. Martin admits KC’s offense lags behind the Cards, but the superior pitching matchup and plus money make the Royals his preferred side.

Drew Martin took Royals +112 in St. Louis, trusting rookie left-hander Noah Cameron’s 1.00 ERA through four MLB starts (26 IP, only 13 hits—one every two innings). Cameron has worked six-plus frames each time out and faces a Cardinals lineup that has struggled versus lefties. Miles Mikolas opposes him with declining velocity and just 34 strikeouts in 55 innings, leaving little margin for error. Kansas City’s bullpen grades out better than St. Louis’s, giving the underdog added late-game equity. Martin admits KC’s offense lags behind the Cards, but the superior pitching matchup and plus money make the Royals his preferred side.

Kenny G leaned toward Kansas City at +110 and said it could end up being his "dog of the day." He trusts Noah Cameron’s early-season dominance—1.05 ERA, one earned run or fewer in every start—and likes that the Royals support him with a top-six bullpen. Conversely, Miles Mikolas is fresh off surrendering nine hits and four earned to a slumping Orioles lineup, and the St. Louis pen owns an ordinary 4.08 ERA. Kenny acknowledged KC’s 28th-ranked offense, but noted the Cards have lost three of four and their scoring has tailed off despite ranking fourth in batting average on the season. With Cameron’s ground-ball profile suppressing Busch Stadium’s short gaps and Kansas City 12-16 straight-up yet an NL-best 18-9-1 to the under on the road, he thinks any modest run support makes the plus-money Royals the sharper side.

B Wade hammered Noah Cameron under 2.5 earned runs. The rookie has surrendered only three runs across 25 innings (1.05 ERA) through four starts and already limited St. Louis to one run earlier this year. His WHIP sits at 0.80 overall and an even stingier 0.30 versus the Cardinals. For the bet to fail, Cameron would need to allow as many runs Wednesday as he has all season—a scenario Wade finds highly unlikely.

Jordan Cooper advised pivoting toward a Kansas City Royals stack to gain leverage on Tuesday’s main slate. After running thousands of builds in RotoGrinders SimLabs, he noticed Minnesota hitters will soak up the slate’s only concentrated ownership while Royals bats sit in the low-single-digit range. SimLabs still assigns Kansas City roughly a 4-6 % chance of landing in the optimal lineup—comparable to Detroit and Philadelphia—but at an even lower ownership tax. Cooper highlighted the matchup with Brian Bello and Boston’s bottom-10 bullpen xFIP over the past month, plus the fact that Royals pricing lets you pair them with popular pitching combos such as Pablo Lopez–Yusei Kikuchi without sacrificing projection. Because the Twins are twice as likely to be optimal as any other stack yet will be massively rostered, Cooper sees Kansas City as a clean path to tournament leverage without giving up ceiling.

John Venezia called Noah Cameron a priority add while he is still only 41% owned. The rookie left-hander has dazzled in his first four MLB outings, posting a 1.05 ERA with 16 strikeouts against eight walks across 25.2 innings—each start a quality start. Venezia conceded the strikeout rate is modest but raved about Cameron’s command and mound presence, noting the Royals’ recent track record of developing pitching studs. At such low ownership, Venezia believes fantasy managers can cheaply lock in ratio help and volume while Cameron’s breakout unfolds, with the upside of landing a season-long rotation anchor.

Boston recommended Michael Massey under 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs at –135. Massey has failed to clear this number in 7 of his last 10 games, 35 of 52 overall, and 16 of 26 road contests. Against right-handers on the road he’s 12-for-22 to the under. He’ll see a steady diet of fastballs and sliders from Riley Pint—exactly the two pitches that have given him fits, carrying .197 and .171 wOBA marks respectively. Boston is already on the Cardinals and the game under, and this prop dovetails with that script: limited Kansas City run production means fewer RBI chances, and Massey’s low hard-hit rate (26%) makes multi-hit nights unlikely.

B Wade also took Maikel Garcia over 1.5 hits+runs+RBIs. Garcia has cashed this prop in 12 of his last 15 games (80% hit rate) and even when he misses he is still recording base knocks. He bats .327 against right-handed pitching—better than his overall clip—and faces Cardinals righty Andre Pallante, against whom he is just 2-for-9 lifetime. Wade expects Kansas City’s offense to rebound after facing tough Detroit pitching and noted Garcia received a rest day, so legs are fresh for a bounce-back.