The tout doubled down on a total under because both starters carry sub-2.60 ERAs. Rasmussen has blanked opponents in consecutive starts, while Pablo Lopez owns an even tighter 2.31 mark with a ridiculous 54-9 K-BB ratio. Minnesota has played four unders in its last five, and Tampa has cashed the under in seven of nine. With Buxton sidelined and both bullpens ranking top-10 in WHIP over the last two weeks, he projected a 3-2 game that never sniffs the listed total.

Kenny G is back on an UNDER 8 for Twins-Rays. Pablo Lopez (2.31 ERA) is riding a 4-0 team streak and just blanked Kansas City outside of a lone earned run. Drew Rasmussen has tossed back-to-back six-inning shutouts against Toronto and Miami, trimming his ERA to 2.60. Both relief corps are elite—Minnesota 3.19 (4th) and Tampa Bay 3.31 (6th). Offensively, neither club scares anyone: Twins rank 22nd in runs, Rays 17th. Trend-wise, Tampa is a staggering 19-3-3 to the under at home, while the Twins are 15-9-3 to the under on the road. With two hot starters, premium bullpens, and quiet bats in a pitcher-friendly park, Kenny expects another low-scoring grind and will be betting UNDER 8.

Malcolm Bamford echoed Rockford’s angle but extended it to the full game, taking under 8. He highlighted that Pablo Lopez has guided the Twins to four straight wins while posting a 2.31 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Rasmussen owns a 0.250 home ERA despite other Rays starters struggling in the oversized spring-training park. Both clubs are over .500 to the under this season, and Minnesota is a ridiculous 25-14-4 to the under versus right-handed pitching. With two stingy bullpens in reserve, Bamford sees little path to nine combined runs.

Dylan Rockford hammered the first-five innings under in Twins–Rays, projecting a sluggish start from both clubs. He noted Pablo Lopez has yielded only two total runs across his last 17 road innings while holding a 0.97 WHIP in that span. On the other side, Drew Rasmussen has strung together back-to-back six-scoreless outings and sports a 2.50 ERA at Tropicana Field. Rockford added that Minnesota averages just 3.59 runs per game away from Target Field and Tampa’s lineup has also been middling of late. With both bullpens ranked inside the top-10, his model spat out a 7.6 full-game total, making the first-five under his preferred play.

Jordan Cooper said Joe Ryan is his preferred salary-saving pivot off Hunter Brown. Swapping Ryan for Brown frees $1,300 on DraftKings, which SimLabs shows lets you jam an Astros or Yankees stack while still producing high top-100 lineup ratings. Cooper expects Carlos Rodon to be the chalk, followed by Tyler McGill and Brown, leaving Ryan as the fourth-most-owned arm in the mid-teens—offering leverage without sacrificing ceiling. Ryan sits in Cooper’s six-pitcher pool and, in Cooper’s words, gives you "the same strikeout upside for cheaper" while avoiding the field’s construction patterns.

Cooper pointed out that Minneapolis bats could be the forgotten stack tonight. The Twins carry a 4.4 implied run total against Taj Bradley, who is garnering 12% pitching ownership despite name value. SimLabs shows Minnesota with an 8–9% optimal probability while projecting even lower field exposure, creating direct leverage on Bradley and the chalkier Astros/Yankees stacks. Cooper suggested five-man Twins builds as a path to first place in large-field GPPs.

Malcolm Bamford hammered the full-game under 8 (and recommended first-five splits) behind two arms in peak form. Joe Ryan’s season line—2.65 ERA, 0.81 WHIP—includes one three-run blip, but he has allowed one earned run or fewer in three of four road turns, surrendering fewer than five hits in five straight. Taj Bradley has yielded exactly two earned in four of his last five while keeping the hit column under five in three of four, and he owns markedly better numbers at the Trop. Both lineups are bottom-ten in hard-hit rate and each club is better than .500 to the under on the season (Minnesota 7-of-10, Tampa 6-of-10 recent unders). Bamford projects a 2-1 finish and advised bettors to shop for any juiced 8.5 or pair first-three/first-five unders for extra angles.

Kingpin Sports played the Twins moneyline, emphasizing Joe Ryan’s 4-2 record with a 2.68 ERA and plus command. They expect him to outduel Taj Bradley (4-3, 4.61) by missing bats and avoiding free passes, giving Minnesota the edge.

Kenny G’s favorite angle at the Trop is under 8.5. Joe Ryan (4-2, 2.68 ERA) has surrendered only two earned runs across four of his last five outings and is backed by baseball’s fourth-best bullpen. Opposite him, 24-year-old Taj Bradley has been inconsistent (4-3, 4.61 ERA) but just limited Houston to two runs over six frames and hands off to a Rays relief unit carrying a 3.30 ERA. Neither lineup profiles as explosive: Minnesota sits 21st in runs, 20th in batting average, while Tampa is 20th in runs and 22nd in OBP despite a recent six-game win streak. Both clubs have been cash machines for totals bettors—Twins road games are 15-9-3 to the under, Rays home games a staggering 19-3-3 to the under. Kenny believes the number should be closer to 7.5 given the pitching matchup, park factors and each team’s under trends, so grabbing 8.5 is “pretty good value.” He leans slightly to the Twins’ moneyline at –120 because of Ryan’s current form but the under is his primary wager.

Just A Bet Outside advised targeting Joe Ryan’s strikeout over when he visits Tampa Bay. The Rays have the seventh-highest K-rate versus righties in the past three weeks (22.9%). Ryan sits on 67 strikeouts in 57 innings, logged 7-plus Ks in four of his last five outings, and owns a massive 38.5% K-rate against right-handed hitters. Even with a modest dip on the road (27.3%), the matchup says seven or more punch-outs are very attainable.

Razzle advised steering clear of Chris Paddack. His K-prop is just 3.5 (over juice), he draws +185 win odds, and he must pitch in the day’s warmest, wind-aided park against a disciplined Rays lineup. While Paddack has posted back-to-back 22-DK point outings, Razzle believes that ceiling is unreachable in this spot and prefers every other mid-range arm discussed.

Jenstad cautioned managers not to overbid on Zebby Matthews despite the hype. The 23-year-old fanned nine Royals in four frames but has yet to face more than 18 batters in any outing. Rocco Baldelli remains married to the two-times-through-the-order rule, leaving Matthews with consecutive 3- and 4-inning starts and virtually no chance at wins. Jenstad loves the arsenal—plus command and mid-90s heat—but expects a season of frustrating four-inning no-decisions that sap value in 12-team formats. He would only stash in deeper leagues where ratios and strikeouts outweigh the win category.

Scott Jenstad backed the idea of scooping Carlos Correa off waivers, saying he would have bid more than the $50 his co-manager paid. Jenstad expects Correa's batting-average floor to stabilize once his early-season nagging issues fade, reminding listeners the shortstop hit .310 last year and still projects for 15–18 homers even without stolen bases. With Byron Buxton and Matt Walner returning soon, Jenstad sees the Minnesota lineup lengthening, which should boost Correa’s RBI/run totals. In a landscape where reliable everyday shortstops are scarce, Jenstad labeled Correa a set-and-forget option and a worthy FAAB investment despite the lack of speed.

Calling the Twins the better club "across the board," Rockford grabbed Minnesota +105 and said they should actually be –120. He cited Chris Paddack’s recent surge (three ER total over his last three starts) versus Zack Littell’s ugly Trop splits (0-3, 4.33 ERA, elevated HR rate). Tampa’s offense is punching below its weight at home—just 3.85 runs per game—while Minnesota brings a top-five bullpen and, in Rockford’s opinion, the superior lineup. With Littell allowing two-plus runs in six straight and the Rays scuffling for power, he declared, “wrong team is favored, give me the Twins.”

Wilkerson pegged Ty France as a sneaky long-shot to homer at +575. France owns just four bombs on the season, yet Statcast shows he has two fewer homers than expected, suggesting positive regression is on deck. He also flashes a strong platoon and pitch-type fit against Zack Littell’s slider/splitter/four-seam mix. France is 2-for-6 with a homer and a .413 expected batting average off Littell in their brief history. Wilkerson argued that because France is often viewed as a tertiary bat in Minnesota, markets underrate his pop, making today’s matchup a buy-low spot.

Peterson grabbed the Twins at +108, pricing them as -111 favorites thanks to Chris Paddack’s current heater—three earned runs or fewer in nine straight starts and a 2.22 ERA over his last eight. He contrasted that with Zack Littell’s 4.25 ERA, inflated 5.42 FIP and troubling 2.1 HR/9. With the starting-pitching gap and plus money available, Peterson felt Minnesota offered significant value.

Kenny G leaned to the Twins at –120 behind Bailey Ober. Ober is 4-1 with a 3.68 ERA and already held Kansas City to one earned run over 6 IP on April 10. He has allowed two earned or fewer in six of eight starts, and Minnesota’s top-three bullpen (3.05 ERA) protects leads. Kenny contrasted that with the punch-less Royals lineup (26th in runs, 26th SLG, recent game log of 4-1-8-2-3) that too often strands solid outings from its own starters. He admitted KC hurler "could be great," but worries the Royals provide zero run support. Given Minnesota’s 18-7 home record and incremental improvement at the plate (scoring 5-3-1-6-2-7 over their last six), Kenny sees value in the short money-line price.

Kenny G advised betting Under 7.5 in Royals-Twins. He pointed out that both bullpens are elite—Kansas City’s relief corps owns a 3.27 ERA (5th best) while Minnesota’s sits at 3.05 (3rd). Offensively the clubs are near the bottom of MLB; the Royals rank 26th in runs and slugging and have produced just 4-1-8-2-3 runs their last five, while the Twins are only 20th in runs and batting average. Ball-park trends back him up: Kansas City is 17-9-1 to the under on the road and Minnesota 15-9-1 to the under at Target Field. With neither lineup in form and two sturdy pens ready to shorten the game, Kenny expects a 3-2 or 4-2 type of finish.

Ron played the UNDER behind Chris Bubich—second-best ERA among qualified starters—and Bailey Ober, who sports a 2.59 ERA with 25 K in 24.1 home innings. He highlighted Minnesota’s sub-700 May OPS and high K-rate versus lefties, plus Kansas City’s general struggles against quality righties. With both bullpens dependable and Target Field suppressing power, Romanelli projects a tight, low-scoring affair.

Kenny G said bettors should jump on Under 7.5 because everything points to a low-scoring grinder. Rookie lefty Noah Cameron has a microscopic 0.71 ERA through two outings, while Pablo Lopez counters with a 2.40 mark and is coming off six shut-out frames versus Milwaukee. Both relief units are nasty—Kansas City sits fifth in MLB with a 3.22 bullpen ERA and Minnesota is even better at 3.09—so Kenny doubts either starter will be punished if they exit early. Offensively, the Royals rank 26th in runs and 24th in OBP, and the Twins sit 17th in runs and 21st in slugging, each scoring two runs or fewer in two of their last three. Park- and trend-wise the under is screaming: KC is 16-8-1 to the under on the road, Minnesota 14-8-1 at Target Field. Kenny forecasted a 3-2 type finish and said Under 7.5 is ‘super live’ for his card.

Alongside the run-line, Peterson bet Over 7.5 (model 8.3). Cameron’s low strikeout, high walk profile and Lopez’s 3.94 home ERA point to traffic on the bases. Minnesota’s offense ranks ninth at home while Kansas City’s young lineup has shown power spikes. With a warm Minneapolis forecast and middle-relief units stretched, Peterson projects both clubs combining for eight or more.

Peterson took Twins -1.5 at +135 (power line +123). Rookie lefty Noah Cameron has given up just one run in 12⅔ innings but owns a 4.34 FIP, strikes out only 4.3 per nine and walks 3.6, suggesting regression. Minnesota’s Pablo Lopez sports a 2.40 ERA overall and the Twins average 4.6 runs per game at Target Field, ninth-best in MLB. Peterson expects Lopez to work deep and the offense to separate, justifying the plus-money run-line.

Dylan Rockford recommended laying up to -150 on the Twins—or taking the first-five run line—because Joe Ryan has been dominant. Ryan has surrendered just two earned runs in 18 May innings with a 24-to-2 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and the Twins are 9-1 in their last ten contests. Conversely, Tanner Bibee owns a 6.49 ERA on the road, coughing up 19 runs in 26 away frames while opponents hit .298. Rockford stressed Minnesota's top-five bullpen and Cleveland's recent offensive lull as additional factors. Given the stark pitching mismatch and the Twins' current heater, he views Minnesota as a strong play.

Bevilacqua advised backing the Twins straight up at -116 after Dimers’ model produced a 57.4% win probability and a 3.7% betting edge. The simulations favor Minnesota’s pitching matchup and home-field edge in the 1:10 PM ET tilt, making the moneyline a plus-EV wager according to the site’s projections.

Eric Lindquist said the second game of Wednesday’s Guardians-Twins double-dip sets up as a buy spot on Minnesota. He liked what he saw from Chris Paddack in his last start: fastball velocity climbed 0.8 mph year-over-year (now +0.4 mph on the season) and the right-hander’s underlying numbers (4.23 xERA) suggest league-average competence that could tick up if the velo sticks. Lindquist reminded listeners that Paddack was once an elite prospect whose stuff can play in cold Target Field weather. On the other side, rookie Gavin Williams is “getting too much respect” in the betting markets; Lindquist pointed out Williams has benefitted from a couple of starts with a noticeably wide strike zone, inflating his strike totals. With that context, he is “definitely entertaining” a Minnesota moneyline bet as long as the confirmed matchup is Williams vs Paddack and the forecast cooperates.

Drew Martin said it is time to keep betting on Chris Paddack and the Twins money-line, even at the juiced −139 to −145 price. Paddack has stacked back-to-back seven-plus-inning gems and owns a sub-2.50 ERA since April 1. Last season he spun eight innings of three-hit ball against this very Cleveland lineup, so there is relevant same-division history. On the other side, 25-year-old Gavin Williams has been shaky away from Progressive Field, surrendering 13 earned runs in 18 road innings. Martin added that Minnesota carries a sizable bullpen edge, further tilting late-game win expectancy toward the Twins.

Peterson bet Twins -111 (numbers say -132). Chris Paddack has found his groove, yielding just six runs over his past five starts, while the Minnesota bullpen ranks 3rd with a 2.87 ERA. Gavin Williams struggles with a 4.29 ERA, 1.5 HR/9 and 5.1 BB/9, and he’s backed by a middling Guardians relief corps (4.06 ERA, 18th). Current form plus bullpen edge make Minnesota undervalued.

Kenny G said the Twins are worth every penny at –142 on Monday. He expects Bailey Ober to rebound from last week’s hiccup after opening the year 4-1 with a 3.72 ERA and four straight quality starts before the Baltimore game. Minnesota’s relief corps has backed him up with a 2.89 bullpen ERA—third-best in the majors—so Kenny is confident a late-inning meltdown is unlikely. He contrasted that with Cleveland’s pen, which has fallen from elite to mediocre at 4.06. Offensively, the matchup is just as lopsided: the Guardians have scored 1-1-4-5 runs their last four and rank 20th in runs, 23rd in average, while the Twins have quietly climbed to mid-pack (17th in runs, 16th in average) and cracked 7, 3, 4, 8, 6 in five of their last six before Milwaukee cooled them off. Logan Allen is serviceable but not overpowering (3.70 ERA, one blow-up vs Boston two turns ago), so Kenny thinks Minnesota’s 15-6 home record and stronger bats carry the day. Verdict: play Twins moneyline up to –150.

Drew Martin advised laying –127 with Minnesota, citing multiple edges. The Twins are 26-21 overall, a stout 15-6 at Target Field, and have ripped off a 13-1 tear over the last couple of weeks. Ober is 4-1 this season and, in three starts against Cleveland last year, threw 21 innings (7.0 per start) while permitting only three earned runs and winning all three decisions. Cleveland’s offense has cratered—bottom five in MLB over the past week, scoreless in a four-game skid after being swept by Cincinnati—and their bullpen grades bottom-10 by Martin’s numbers. Meanwhile Minnesota’s lineup ranks top-five right now and its relief corps is also top-five. Although Logan Allen spun a gem against Milwaukee last time out, his 4.00 FIP suggests regression. With both lineup form and bullpen quality in the Twins’ corner along with Ober’s past dominance of the division rival, Martin expects Minnesota to take the opener comfortably.

Brad Francis said he is backing the Twins on the money line again because, as he put it, “I’m going to ride this Twins train until the wheels fall off.” Minnesota enters the day on a 13-game winning streak and faces Milwaukee’s ace Freddy Peralta. Francis acknowledged the danger of Zebby Matthews drawing the start for Minnesota, but believes the current form of the Twins’ lineup outweighs the pitching mismatch. The extended streak plus home-field momentum are his primary angles, so he is content to eat any attached juice and stay on the streaking side.

Kenny G leaned to Minnesota at +135 despite rookie Zebby Matthews making his MLB debut. The Twins have won 13 straight, powered by a lights-out 2.93 bullpen ERA and three consecutive shutouts. Matthews earned the call-up on strong AAA strike-plus-ground-ball numbers, and Kenny trusts the relief crew to cover any short outing. Milwaukee’s lineup is spiraling—zero runs in the first two games of the series and just nine total over its last five contests—and the bullpen is leaking oil at 4.59. Freddy Peralta owns a tidy 2.66 ERA but just coughed up four runs to Cleveland; his 9.7% walk rate hints at volatility. Given Minnesota’s current mojo and a punch-less Brewers offense, Kenny believes the dog price is too generous and expects the Twins to extend their streak if Matthews gives even four competent frames.

Eric Pathi predicted Minnesota would notch its 12th consecutive win against Milwaukee and recommended continuing to back the Twins if bookmakers hang a plus number. He framed it as the inverse of his rule-of-10 logic: you keep betting a hot team until it finally drops one, especially when the public reflexively fades the streak and forces oddsmakers to offer dog money. Pathi sees no edge in laying –166 with the Brewers versus a club that has done nothing but cash tickets for nearly two weeks.

Ryan Wormeli recommended scooping up Brooks Lee in any league where the former No. 8 overall pick is still floating on waivers (rostered in just 4 % Yahoo, 2 % ESPN). The 24-year-old third baseman has popped a pair of homers this week and, more importantly, has bumped his hard-hit rate from 24 % last season to 42 %. Wormeli noted third base is a wasteland once you get outside the top tier, so Lee’s multi-category upside at a scarce position makes him an easy bench stash. He conceded the case is more speculative than data-driven—Lee’s minor-league progression was so rapid that we still may not have seen his best—but argued the combination of prospect pedigree, immediate playing time and minimal acquisition cost is too good to ignore for managers needing long-term help.

Francis told bettors not to hop off the train, recommending another Twins money-line ticket. Minnesota enters Friday on an 11-game winning streak with a +46 run differential during that span and a bullpen holding opponents to a 0.91 WHIP. Until the market forces him off, Francis is content riding the league’s hottest club.

For the same Twins–Brewers matchup, Cash Out Sports Picks recommended the full-game UNDER. Joe Ryan’s night-game ERA sits at a microscopic 1.13 while Chad Patrick owns a 2.42 ERA after dark. Minnesota may be winning but still averages only 5.3 runs per game during the streak, and Milwaukee’s lineup has produced fewer than three runs per contest across its last seven. With two in-form starters, one ice-cold offense, and both bullpens relatively rested, the tout projected a low-scoring Friday at American Family Field.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Twins on the money line, pointing to Minnesota’s 10-game winning streak and a clear edge on the mound. Joe Ryan brings a 2.74 ERA, 0.83 WHIP (third-best in MLB) and a .196 opponent batting average while fanning more than one hitter per inning; across his last 19 innings he has allowed only two earned runs. Milwaukee has lost five of its last seven and counters with Chad Patrick, who owns a 3.19 ERA but has yielded 16 hits and eight earned runs over his last 16.2 frames. The tout highlighted Minnesota’s superior extra-base-hit total (115 vs 99), home-run edge (40 vs 37) and top-six rankings in team ERA and WHIP compared with Milwaukee’s 20th- and 22nd-place marks. With near-even odds, the advice was to ride the hottest team and one of the hottest arms in baseball.

Eric Pathy said he will look to bet against the Twins on Saturday if oddsmakers list them as favorites. Minnesota has won 11 straight, including two separate three-game sweeps of Baltimore, making them the first club this year to top a 10-game run. With the Twins enjoying a rest day Friday, Pathy expects the market to overreact to the streak, so he plans to grab their opponent’s moneyline once prices are posted.

Kenny G advised taking the Twins at ‑110 in what books list as a coin-flip. He does not trust Milwaukee starter Chad Patrick to work deep — Patrick has yet to complete five frames in three of his past four turns — and a 4.65 Brewers bullpen ERA looms the moment Patrick hands over the ball. Milwaukee’s bats do little to offset that liability: they rank 15th in runs, 23rd in batting average and 27th in slugging, having been shut out in two of their previous three before a nine-run outlier. By contrast, Kenny is comfortable backing a Minnesota club that, while just 9-14 on the road, owns a 12-9-2 under record in those parks, signaling the pitching and defense usually travel. He thinks the market is mis-pricing this as even money and placed the Twins money-line in his pinned picks.

Lindquist leaned toward Joe Ryan staying UNDER 17.5 outs (essentially failing to complete six innings) even at even money. Although Ryan has cruised in his last few starts, Lindquist called the matchup in Milwaukee a classic sell-high. Ryan is still surrendering a 44 % hard-hit rate and a 23-degree average launch angle—numbers that invite big flies if the American Family Field roof is open in warmer summer weather. With the Twins running thin defensively—Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa are both sidelined—Lindquist expects more pitches per plate appearance and an earlier bullpen call from Rocco Baldelli, who has pulled Ryan before the sixth in three of seven starts this season. He would take plus money but is comfortable down to –105 if roof reports confirm hitter-friendly conditions.

Michael Savio backed the Twins moneyline because Joe Ryan is on a tear—3-2 record with a 2.74 ERA and microscopic 0.83 WHIP on the year, but more importantly a 0.95 ERA and 0.63 WHIP across his last three starts. Savio noted Milwaukee’s offense is circling the drain, ranking sixth-worst in OPS (.665) and batting just .209 over the past week while being shut out twice in their previous series. On the other side, Chad Patrick’s May collapse (3.19 season ERA but ballooning after a 1.82 April) gives Minnesota a clear pitching edge. With the Twins’ bats trending up and Ryan in ace form, Savio expects another low-scoring night for the Brewers and advised laying ‑115 on the Twins ML.

Ryan Wooden recommended Trevor Larnach to homer at +550 (BetMGM) versus Baltimore. Larnach has raised his average from .225 to .250 over five games with three homers in his last six. All seven bombs this season have come off right-handers, and he faces Tomoyuki Sugano, who owns a .234 average against lefties and has surrendered five HR to them. The model set Larnach’s fair line at +500, so bettors are getting 50 points of value on a hitter seeing the ball extremely well.

Chris Welsh told managers to grab David Festa right now, predicting Minnesota will promote him within the next 2-3 days after optioning Simeon Woods Richardson. Festa has been dominant over his last two Triple-A turns—14 strikeouts, zero walks, and only three hits across 11 2⁄3 innings—while steadily building his pitch count into the mid-80s. Welsh said he’d dump a low-ceiling streamer like Patrick Corbin to stash Festa, calling the rookie a borderline must-add in 12-teamers because he sits 94-96 with a plus change and slider. Although Zebby Matthews remains in the conversation, Welsh believes the clerical roster move strongly hints that “Festivus for the rest of us” is imminent.

Kenny G pegged Minnesota at +115 as his Dog of the Day, citing a perfect storm of form and bullpen edges. The Twins have rattled off ten straight wins, averaging 5.8 runs during the streak and finally climbing out of the league’s bottom third in slugging. Chris Paddack looks revitalized, allowing two or fewer earned runs in four of his last five outings and coming off 7.1 dominant frames versus San Francisco. Behind him waits MLB’s fifth-best bullpen (3.08 ERA). Baltimore counters with rookie import Tomoyuki Sugano (2.72 ERA), but Kenny warned that even a strong start can be undone by the Orioles’ relief corps, which ranks 25th with a 5.04 ERA. Offensively Baltimore has cratered—26th in runs, 26th in average (.227)—making it hard to justify a –135 price tag. Given Minnesota’s momentum, the superior pen, and a plus number on the moneyline, Kenny believes the Twins are undervalued and should complete the sweep.

For the same game, he leaned UNDER the posted total. Both starters are coming off identical 7.1-inning, one-run, three-hit gems. Sugano’s season line is 2.73 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP, while, if you throw out Paddack’s rocky debut, he owns a 2.97 ERA with 28 strikeouts to 12 walks over his last seven outings. Over the past week Baltimore ranks 13th in wRC+ and 16th in ISO, Minnesota sits 15th and 17th, respectively—hardly fearsome. Baltimore has allowed more than three runs in just two of Sugano’s eight starts all year. Add Minnesota’s sturdy bullpen and the tout expects a tight, low-scoring matinee that cashes an under ticket.

Bettor Mark projected a shoot-out in the Twins-Orioles matchup and made Over 9 runs (–105) an official wager. He highlighted Chris Paddack’s volatility and Baltimore’s strong splits versus right-handed pitching as reasons the Orioles can "get to Paddack." Minnesota’s lineup has been "sneakily hot" of late, giving him confidence they can do damage against Shugano, whose underlying metrics and platoon splits lean hitter-friendly. With both offenses ranking top-10 in hard-hit rate over the past week and Camden Yards offering a homer-friendly backdrop, Mark expects multiple crooked numbers and prefers the full-game total to derivative markets.