Minnesota Twins

Guy Boston suggests fading Matt Wallner, specifically targeting under 1.5 hits, runs, and RBIs or under 0.5 runs. His reasoning centers on Hunter Brown's fastball-heavy pitch mix, noting Wallner's weighted on-base average drops significantly against fastballs and sinkers. Although Wallner can handle cutters, Brown rarely relies on that pitch. This pitching matchup, combined with the projected low-scoring environment, leads Guy Boston to anticipate struggles for Wallner, making the unders appealing betting options.

Zach Thompson tabbed Joe Ryan as his top pitching choice for the MLB DFS slate on April 3rd, citing particularly strong home performances over his career at Target Field, where Ryan posts a K/9 rate of 10.5, notably higher than his road strikeout rate. Ryan also exhibited encouraging form with a strong first start against the Cardinals, pitching five innings with five strikeouts, allowing only one run. Ryan's matchup against an Astros team that currently ranks among the league leaders in strikeout rate (54 Ks in six games) offers substantial upside, especially in a cold afternoon game in Minneapolis. Despite some inconsistency against Houston last season (eight earned runs over two starts), Thompson expects Ryan's strikeout skills to shine in this spot.

Derek Carty recommends betting the over on Joe Ryan's 5.5 strikeout total (-160 odds) as one of the day's high-value pitcher prop bets. The projection assigns Ryan a 69% chance of exceeding this number, providing +$18.18 in expected value. Ryan benefits significantly from a dominating platoon advantage against a Houston Astros lineup projected to feature eight right-handed hitters, positioning him nicely to surpass this strikeout projection.

Data Skrive recommends prop betting consideration for Harrison Bader, who leads the Twins with three homers and eight RBI over their recent contests. Despite batting only .250 over that stretch, his power surge, including three homers and consistent run production, strengthens his value to exceed RBI and total base props.

Data Skrive notes that the Twins have successfully handled the favorite role this season, winning two out of three games when favored by at least -124. The implied moneyline probabilities also favor Minnesota with a 55.4% chance to win. Meanwhile, the Astros have lost their only game this year as underdogs at odds of +104 or longer. This situational trend makes the Twins' moneyline at -124 an actionable value play.

Michael Savio highlighted Twins pitcher Joe Ryan after an impressive first start in 2025, allowing only one run across five innings to St. Louis. Ryan is coming off a tremendous 2024 campaign where he recorded a standout 0.99 WHIP. Although the Astros have historically had some success against Ryan, they now possess their weakest lineup in several seasons, greatly enhancing Ryan's betting value tonight. As a result, Savio anticipates another strong showing from Ryan, leading to a low-scoring affair favoring the under bet.

Joe Pisapia identified Bailey Ober as an excellent buy-low pitching candidate due to his track record of horrific season debuts. Historically, Ober has a 12.36 ERA and 2.14 WHIP in his first start of every season. Removing these first starts shows a drastically improved career mark (3.42 ERA, 0.98 WHIP). Pisapia cited Ober's progress made in 2024 and expects a rapid rebound, urging fantasy managers to acquire Ober quickly before the opportunity window closes.

Dylan Rockford strongly prefers backing the Twins first-five innings specifically due to pitcher Joe Ryan, who looked excellent in his initial outing despite minimal run support. He argues that facing the slumping Astros lineup—offensively weak and losers of their past games—is an optimal setup for Ryan to dominate early. With clear concerns over both team's shaky bullpens, Rockford feels avoiding late-game unpredictability and centering bets around Minnesota's edge in starting pitching through the first five innings offers the best betting angle.

Eric Lindquist recommended betting on Byron Buxton to hit a home run versus Sean Burke, highlighting Burke's troubling metrics from his first start. Specifically, Burke has allowed a .683 expected slugging across 18 batted ball events, indicating he's generating very little swing and miss and is vulnerable to power hitters. Lindquist pointed out that Buxton is projecting nicely at odds better than +340, implying a good betting opportunity given Burke's current form.

Joe Piapisa downplayed Bailey Ober's dreadful opening start—giving up eight earned runs—providing historic data to alleviate concerns. Piapisa revealed Ober's extraordinary first-start pattern historically, spotlighting a first-game ERA over 12, in stark contrast to his 3.42 ERA and a sterling 0.98 WHIP in all subsequent starts. Clearly advocating for fantasy managers to remain patient or even take advantage of panic-induced drops by others, Piapisa strongly emphasized Ober's annual pattern of quickly improving after early-season meltdowns. Piapisa confidently labeled Ober's rough start as an anomalous trend rather than a genuine cause for alarm.

Brad Francis tags the Twins run line against the White Sox as his best bet of the day, noting that Chicago has failed to cover the run line at home against the AL Central in eight straight games dating back to last year. Furthermore, the Twins come into this matchup having had an unexpectedly rough series against the Cardinals. Brad strongly believes Minnesota is a better team than their recent performances suggest, anticipating they'll channel their frustration into a commanding victory against the White Sox, making the Twins run line his top confidence pick.

Eric Lindquist expressed concerns over backing the Twins lineup in their matchup against the White Sox. Despite Martin Perez's struggles last year (353 X-WOBA, 8.6% barrel percentage), Lindquist hesitated to bet Minnesota on the run line due to the Twins' recent offensive struggles against St. Louis, describing the lineup as 'sputtering.' He noted Minnesota's inconsistent performances at the plate, stressing the need for caution until their offense finds its rhythm this season.

Just a Bet Outside highlighted that Carlos Correa has a strong hitting matchup against Martin Perez, going 9-for-29 (.310) with three home runs in previous at-bats. Correa's past success against Perez suggests he could perform well again today, making him a notable option for DFS lineups or betting on hitting props.

JD Bets recommended betting Bailey Ober over 4.5 strikeouts against the Cardinals. He noted Ober consistently surpassed this mark with a solid average of 6.1 strikeouts per game last season, hitting this number in 21 of his 31 starts. Despite concern over Ober achieving just one strikeout in his first start last season, JD liked Ober's strong overall strikeout consistency and viewed this as an appealing EV play at current odds.

Chris Morgan labeled Matt Wallner a top DFS stacking option given his significant power against right-handed pitching (.557 SLG since 2023). Morgan broke down the matchup, highlighting Cardinals pitcher Andre Pallante's clear issues transitioning back to the rotation (3.78 ERA, 1.96 K/BB ratio) and noted that right-handers hit Pallante at a .296 clip. Morgan emphasized Wallner's left-handed power as particularly advantageous, making him ideally positioned to capitalize against Pallante's vulnerabilities in today's contest.

Bettor Mark sees strong betting value on the Minnesota Twins at -125 to finally avoid being swept in their series against St. Louis. Despite backing Minnesota unsuccessfully in their previous matchup, he applied the same logic here believing the Twins want to avoid an early season sweep. He acknowledged the Cardinals' strong 2-0 start which many bettors have responded to prematurely, but emphasized the value in the Twins' motivation to secure a victory at a reasonable money line price.

Dan Marcus pinpointed Joe Ryan as the strongest pitching option in DraftKings Saturday contests, highlighting his impressive 27.3% strikeout rate from the previous season—the highest of any available pitcher on the slate. Marcus expressed confidence in Ryan's matchup, noting the game against the Cardinals is favorable and unlikely to pose major issues for Ryan, making him an ideal anchor in DFS lineups at a reasonable $8,800 price.

Bettor Mark highlighted the Minnesota Twins as his favorite play of the day, specifically recommending them at -124 moneyline. He strongly believes the Twins' offense significantly outmatches the Cardinals' lineup, mentioning Joe Ryan as offering a similarly capable pitching matchup to Erick Fedde. Mark views this as a clear value spot early in the season because the market is undervaluing the Twins offensively and sees them securing their first victory of the season against a fading Cardinals team.

Bryan Armetta advised backing the Twins at minus 1.5 runs (+145), citing Minnesota's substantial pitching edge and lineup strength against the Cardinals. Twins' starter Pablo Lopez brings reliability to the mound, while St. Louis' Sonny Gray had a rough spring training, struggling to a concerning 12.56 ERA over four appearances. Although spring stats can mislead, Gray's prolonged struggles remain alarming. The Twins will feature star hitters Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa, while the Cardinals enter the season with roster stagnation, failing to trade dissatisfied veteran Nolan Arenado. Given these pitching disparities and Minnesota's clear talent advantage, Armetta expects a comfortable Twins victory.

With the Cardinals starting catcher Ivan Herrera, who is known for his poor arm strength, ESPN Fantasy identified Twins runners Willi Castro, Harrison Bader, and Byron Buxton as ideal streamer candidates to capitalize on stolen-base opportunities. Given Herrera's defensive shortcomings, these players are likely to aggressively run, providing fantasy managers crucial early-season stolen base production.

Eric Lindquist sees an early opportunity betting the Minnesota Twins money line on Opening Day against the St. Louis Cardinals. He highlighted optimism around Twins starter Pablo Lopez and concern surrounding Cardinals pitcher Sonny Gray, who allowed an 8.9% barrel rate last season. He admitted the Twins' bullpen is a question mark, but feels good about Lopez anchoring their pitching early in this game. He recommends caution due to an unfavorable hitting environment in St. Louis' ballpark but still identifies clear value in backing Minnesota in their opener.

Brian Howard cautioned strongly against betting the Twins run-line or fading the Cardinals at home on opening day. He specifically warned his co-host about targeting the Cardinals in this situation, noting historically tough performances by St. Louis at home in opening scenarios. Despite his colleague Kyle Purviance rating Minnesota highly, Howard remained wary, suggesting unpredictable and frustrating scenarios often unfold when betting against the Cardinals in these spots, recalling past betting nightmares as cautionary reminders.

Kyle Purviance identified notable value in betting the Twins against the Cardinals on MLB Opening Day, strongly questioning the Cardinals' status as favorites in this matchup. Purviance argued that across the board, the Twins are considerably better than St. Louis. Specifically, he rates Minnesota highly, identifying their bullpen as MLB's second-best, with solid middle-of-the-pack rotation and lineup quality. Contrastingly, Purviance sees the Cardinals as markedly weaker, ranking them in the bottom seven for both lineup and rotation, and notably bottom-three bullpen quality. Despite Sonny Gray starting for St. Louis and pitching well historically early in seasons, Purviance advocated betting the Twins at their favorable odds of minus one run (+140) as part of a run line parlay, seeing substantial betting value against the overrated Cardinals squad.

Ron Romanelli believes the Minnesota Twins are undervalued as AL Central favorites at +200 odds. He emphasizes Minnesota's strong pitching depth, including an elite bullpen and a formidable rotation anchored by a three-headed monster of Lopez, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober. Chris Paddock also impressed in spring training with improved control. Romanelli asserts that a healthy offensive core—highlighted by stars Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton—could propel the Twins toward division prominence. Given their balanced and deep pitching staff and high potential offensive ceiling, he recommends Minnesota as a smart preseason bet to claim the division title.

Joe Orrico likes betting the Twins to make the playoffs at +120 odds, emphasizing their excellent rotation featuring Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and promising young arms like David Festa and Simeon Woods Richardson, who had a strong spring. Orrico also praised the bullpen's dominance with Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax leading the back end. While noting potential health issues around key bats Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton, Orrico believes the Twins' depth and rotation strength clearly set them apart as the best bet in the AL Central, seeing them as the division favorite despite competition primarily from the Kansas City Royals.