Bill Harrelson called Cody Bellinger OVER 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs his favorite play of the slate. Bellinger has cleared this mark in 10 straight games (and 16 of his last 20), exploding for 12 H-R-RBI in the series opener and still cashing yesterday when the Yankees scored only two runs. During the 13-game heater he is averaging 4.2 H-R-RBI while logging 4.4 plate appearances a night. Season-long he owns a .285 average over 368 trips to the dish, but that rockets to .386 versus left-handed pitching—the split he’ll see today against southpaw Imanaga (who nonetheless allows just a .201 opponent AVG). With sportsbooks like Fliff and Hard Rock juicing the over, Harrelson is content to keep riding the scorching bat.

Ryan Wormeli reported that Clarke Schmidt is seeking a second opinion but is almost certain to undergo Tommy John or an internal-brace procedure, effectively ending his 2024 season and wiping out most of 2025. Wormeli advised fantasy managers to drop Schmidt in all redraft formats and reallocate the roster spot—preferably to Luis Gil, who is already rehabbing and could slide into the newly vacated rotation slot. Even if Schmidt opts for the quicker brace option, Wormeli stressed the risk of setbacks still makes him dead weight in yearly leagues.

Mike Maher highlighted Luis Gil beginning a rehab assignment this weekend and recommended stashing him wherever possible. Maher admitted he viewed Gil’s 2023 breakout (3.63 ERA, 27% K-rate) as a bit of smoke-and-mirrors, but he still prefers Gil’s strikeout upside to several arms currently occupying both fantasy lineups and the back of the Yankees’ rotation. With Clarke Schmidt likely done for the year, New York has innings available, and Maher believes Gil could provide mid-rotation ratios plus double-digit strikeout potential every turn if his fastball-slider combo looks anything like last season.

Cash Out Sports Picks sided with the Yankees on the moneyline. He pointed to New York’s explosive recent offense – 8.0 runs per game over the last six – compared to the Cubs’ 4.7. Max Fried brings an 11-2 record and 2.27 ERA while Chicago counters with Matthew Boyd (9-3, 2.52). Although both rotations have been elite, the host highlighted New York’s edge at the plate (league-best WRC+ vs LHP) and noted both bullpens are scuffling, but Fried’s ability to work deep mitigates New York’s weaker relief corps (5.08 ERA last 7; Cubs 5.25). With the Yankee bats “firing on all cylinders,” he expects them to take the series early.

Chris Welsh urged fantasy managers not to drop Cam Schlittler after streaming him. The rookie sat 97.9 mph (touched 100) in 5.1 innings versus Seattle, fanning seven. Welsh loved the 38 % CSW on a fastball he threw 50 % of the time and a power slider that hit 94. With a tall frame that creates extension, Schlittler pounded the zone (fastball + slider strikes) and showed a four-pitch mix he can expand once he settles in. Welsh expects the Yankees to keep him in the rotation given their injuries and sees legitimate "strong second-half" upside—close enough to Chase Burns that he’d keep Schlittler on rosters to see how the league adjusts before deciding.

Gary Sheffield Jr said Luke Weaver no longer profiles as a trustworthy late-inning option after coming back early from a hamstring strain. Sheffield called Weaver "a shell of himself," noting diminished velocity and command since the injury and stressing that the Yankees clearly lack a lockdown reliever. Because Brian Cashman is almost certain to shop for a high-leverage arm before the deadline, Sheffield urged season-long players chasing saves to move off Weaver now and instead stash potential trade targets such as Jhoan Duran or Eugenio Suarez-type bats who could shift bullpen hierarchy upon arrival in the Bronx.

Gary Sheffield Jr said the Yankees remain the right side of the AL East coin-flip futures market (+100 compared to Toronto’s +110). His conviction rests on New York’s league-best +105 run differential versus the Blue Jays’ +20, a gap he views as a truer indicator of team quality than the current 2.5-game standings deficit. Sheffield noted the Yankees’ poor record in one-run and extra-inning games as a variance issue that should normalize, especially once the front office patches obvious holes (third base and bullpen) before the deadline. He added that Toronto’s success has been propped up by an inflated home record and that the Yankees’ aggressive deadline shopping signals internal confidence, making New York a buy in the division market.

The tout laid the juice with New York. The Yankees have outscored Seattle 19-9 in the series, and their offense ranks 4th in AVG and 3rd in runs, batting .309 over the last six games. Bryan Wu’s 25-inning, two-run heater came against weak lineups (Pirates, Rangers, Twins), and Marcus Stroman looks sharper each start after a 60-day IL stint (4 ER in 10 IP since return). With Seattle hitting .223 over its last six, the Yankees’ edge is pronounced.

Eric Lindquist targeted Jazz Chisholm Jr. for a home-run prop against 24-year-old right-hander Logan Evans. Lindquist labeled Evans “a soft-tossing variety” whose fastball grades out poorly, allowing a .347 xwOBA and .285 xBA. Without plus velocity or a reliable secondary that can neutralize lefties, Evans sets up perfectly for Jazz’s pull-side power. Lindquist expects the market to hang a number north of +500 because of Chisholm’s recent cold stretch, presenting what he views as clear value, especially with no dominant lefty waiting in the Cubs bullpen behind Evans.

Eric Lindquist said Juan Soto is in a perfect get-right environment Tuesday at Camden Yards. He highlighted Soto’s elite current metrics – a 56.6 percent hard-hit rate, .457 xwOBA and .650 expected slugging – while noting the star outfielder is running more (10 steals already) and still posting a .904 OPS despite an uncharacteristically low .263 batting average. The matchup is against rookie right-hander Brandon Young, whose minor-league track record shows no real weapon to neutralize left-handed power. With warm hitting weather and a short right-field porch in Baltimore, Lindquist expects Soto to rack up bases and labeled him a strong over 1.5 total-bases or home-run prop target, plus a core DFS spend-up.

Bill Harrelson said to play Cody Bellinger higher than 1.5 combined hits, runs, and RBIs on Tuesday. Bellinger has smashed this number in eight straight and in nine of his past ten while seeing roughly 4.5 plate appearances per game. Although his season-long hit rate is only 49%, Harrelson wants to ride the heater. He pointed out the matchup with right-hander Logan Gilbert, who is allowing a .231 average to lefties versus .198 overall. Bellinger is 1-for-2 with an RBI in three career plate appearances against Gilbert. DraftKings is hanging the same prop at pick’em, so Harrelson views the PrizePicks line as fair value and expects the hot streak to continue.

Mike DFS Army urged locking in Will Warren OVER 5.5 strikeouts before the line bumps to 6. Warren has cleared this number in 3 of his last 4 starts and owns a 28.7% K-rate overall. DraftKings has the over juiced to –135, and the DFS Army prop model gives it a 53.0% hit probability. The opponent, Seattle, strikes out at the 11th-highest clip in MLB (22.8%). Yankee Stadium isn’t hurting him either—Warren has racked up 58 strikeouts at home despite two fewer starts there and sports an ERA more than three runs lower than on the road. All signs point to plus strikeout volume in this spot.

Drew Martin recommended laying the price with the Yankees in the Subway Series. Southpaw Max Fried is 10-2 with a 2.10 ERA and 106 strikeouts; he blanked the Mets earlier this season over six innings (3 H, 8 K). New York will face Brandon Waddell, a bullpen arm who spent the last four years in the KBO and has limited MLB data. Martin doubts Waddell can navigate a top-tier Yankee order and gives New York decisive bullpen support behind him. The combination of Fried’s ace form and a clear lineup mismatch makes the Bronx Bombers the play.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the Yankees money-line because Max Fried brings a Cy Young–level 0.94 WHIP into Citi Field while the Mets counter with Brandon Waddell in a patched-together bullpen game. New York’s AL club owns the league’s second-best road OPS and has rediscovered its stroke after a brief slump. Meanwhile, the Mets rank only 11th in home OPS and must ask a shaky pen to navigate Aaron Judge and company multiple times. The tout expects the Yankee lineup to supply enough support for Fried to secure a must-win against their crosstown rivals.

Lonte Smith called the Yankees a bargain at -150 and loves their team total Over against Frankie Montas. Rodon is ‘due for a big month’, having allowed two or fewer runs in three of his last four road starts and already blanking the Mets earlier this season (1 ER over 5 IP). Montas, meanwhile, cratered for five runs in one inning versus Pittsburgh and has given up at least four earned in six of his last eight appearances. Smith projected New York to hang crooked numbers early, recommending Yankees first-five -0.5 and folding their money-line into a two-leg parlay with Tampa Bay. He believes the proper line should be closer to -170.

Drew Martin said to back the Yankees at –140 in the Subway Series because the starting-pitching matchup heavily favors New York. Carlos Rodon owns a 9-5 record with a sub-3.00 ERA and already stifled the Mets earlier this season (2 hits, 1 ER). New York also hits right-handed pitching much better than the Mets handle lefties. While both bullpens have struggled, Martin argued the Mets’ relief corps has been just as shaky, so the late-inning risk is baked into the number. Even with the Yankees riding a four-game skid and the Mets 31-13 at Citi Field, he believes the 40-cent price is short given Rodon’s form versus Frankie Montas, who is making only his third start of the year and was tagged for six earned and two homers by Pittsburgh last time out.

Lindquist flagged Juan Soto over 1.5 walks as a playable prop against Marcus Stroman. Stroman’s control has abandoned him, posting a 13.6% walk rate through his first 49 batted-ball events and a 5.88 expected ERA. Lindquist added that the New York bullpen “has no identity,” cycling through arms like Weaver while dropping three straight in Toronto, so additional free passes after Stroman exits are live. With Soto’s trademark patience and Stroman’s current wildness, Lindquist expects at least two free passes at plus money.

Scott Reichel said the money-line price on New York (-125) is cheap given the current pitching matchup. Clarke Schmidt strung together three straight scoreless starts before a six-inning, four-run hiccup in Oakland, and Reichel noted his underlying numbers — 27.8 K%, 3.18 xFIP over his last month — are markedly better than Chris Bassitt’s. Bassitt owns a sparkling 2.60 ERA at Rogers Centre but was shelled at Fenway his last time out and has watched his swinging-strike rate dip below 9 %. Reichel expects Schmidt’s strikeout upside to play against a Toronto lineup that ranks 26th in wOBA versus right-handed four-seamers. With the Yankees’ bats scuffling, he projects a tight, low-scoring affair yet still gives New York the edge because Schmidt is in better form and Bassitt’s home splits are masking declining stuff. He called 4-3 Yankees his most likely score and advised taking the Bronx Bombers straight up rather than laying a run line.

Eric Lindquist advised taking a sprinkle on Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s home-run prop if books hang anything north of +400 against Chris Bassitt. Lindquist stressed that Bassitt owns one of the most pronounced platoon splits in MLB, surrendering the bulk of his damage to left-handed bats (a .207 ISO and 1.56 HR/9 to LHB this season). Jazz, who has already taken Kevin Gausman and Jose Berrios deep this series, remains locked in and will again carry the platoon edge. Lindquist believes the market is still pricing Chisholm like a league-average hitter, even though his 46% hard-hit rate and 14.3% barrel rate versus righties scream upside. With Bassitt’s heavy sinker/curve mix staying in the zone and Jazz seeing the ball well, Lindquist sees plus-money bombs as the most attractive way to attack this matchup.

Martin laid the short –120 road price with the Yankees. Clarke Schmidt brings a 3.00 ERA and already blanked Toronto for five innings of one-hit ball earlier this season. Chris Bassitt, meanwhile, coughed up two homers in five innings the last time he saw New York and is coming off a disastrous outing versus Boston (4 BB, 9 R in 2 IP). Across the full season the Yankees sport a +105 run differential and rank among MLB’s best offenses versus right-handed pitching. Toronto’s bullpen is the lone area of concern, but Martin prefers the Yankees’ edge in the rotation and lineup at only a 20-cent tax.

Just A Bet Outside finished his parlay with Yankees team total over 1.5 runs. New York has scored at least two runs in 71 of 85 games (84%) and averages five per night. Jose Berrios is improved this season, but the Bombers have tattooed him historically—5.25 ERA in last year’s meetings and Aaron Judge alone owns four career homers off the right-hander. Even if Berrios tosses a quality start, two earned runs get the job done, and as the road team the Yankees are guaranteed nine innings of offense. Stephen labeled this the 'D-juicer leg' that brings the parlay price into playable range.

Cody Bellinger is 3-for-5 with a homer (.600) off Jose Berrios and has hits in 10 of his last 11 contests. The tout views him as a solid 1+ hit or total bases play.

B Wade paired Guerrero with Jazz Chisholm Jr. over 0.5 hits. Chisholm owns hits in seven of his last ten games (10-for-38) and has avoided back-to-back hitless outings all but once since mid-April. He is 1-for-3 against Wednesday starter Jose Berrios and carries a .243 average versus right-handers, slightly better than his line against lefties. After an early-season slump that included a five-game drought, Chisholm has been locked in for the past month, and Wade trusts the bounce-back trend to continue, needing just a single safety to cash the prop.

Kenny G said the Yankees are worth backing at -165 because Max Fried has been lights-out (10-2, 1.92 ERA) and carved up Toronto back in April while getting 11 runs of support. In his most recent outing he logged seven innings of one-hit, one-unearned-run ball. Kenny trusts New York’s 3.58 bullpen ERA and notes the club is 22-18 on the road with a 22-16-2 record to the under, showing they can win low-scoring games. On the flip side, Kevin Gausman brings a 4.21 ERA, was torched by these Yankees for 11 runs in that April meeting, and Toronto’s offense, while top-5 in OBP and AVG, is less explosive than the line suggests. With the Blue Jays just 3-2 in Gausman’s last five and facing a superior starter, Kenny labeled Yankees ML his preferred play.

Cash Out Sports Picks backed the New York Yankees on the moneyline, pointing to a clear pitching mismatch. Max Fried has produced five consecutive quality starts and already shut down Toronto earlier in the season, while Kevin Gausman’s year-long inconsistency makes him hard to trust despite a lone strong outing last week. Toronto’s lineup could be without Bo Bichette after a freak knee injury, stripping them of one of their best bats. The Yankees also kept their high-leverage relievers fresh in Monday’s loss, giving them a rested bullpen edge. All of that led the tout to recommend the Yankees straight up.

Mark recommended New York’s team total Over 4.5/5.0 (–110 range) in Toronto, arguing that Max Scherzer’s fastball is down 1.6 mph and his hard-hit rate has climbed to 42 % in June. The Yankees just hung a 12-spot on the A’s and get Aaron Judge back in the heart of a lineup that owns MLB’s second-best wRC+ versus righties since mid-June. He sees a ‘feast-or-famine’ profile for Scherzer and expects New York to push five plus across in a dome environment where weather is controlled and the short porch in right can be exploited by several left-handed bats.

Just A Bet Outside recommended taking the Yankees team-total over 2.5 runs because he no longer trusts 40-year-old Max Scherzer to miss bats or work deep. Scherzer’s fastball velocity and slider bite have both dipped, and he has only five strikeouts with three walks through eight MLB innings this season. The tout reminded listeners that Scherzer posted a 4.00 ERA last year and looked similarly flat in his lone rehab start. New York’s offense has plated at least three runs in eight of its last 10 overall games, six of its last 10 against right-handed starters, and 70 percent of its road contests while averaging 5.0 runs away from Yankee Stadium. Toronto’s bullpen is coming off a heavy weekend and may be asked to cover multiple innings. With nine guaranteed trips to the plate as the road team, the host sees three runs as the floor, making the team-total over a viable stand-alone play or anchor leg in parlays.

Dylan Rockford said he will lay as much as –140 with the Yankees in Toronto. His model made New York exactly –140, and he is comfortable firing at that number because Max Scherzer has looked shaky in his first two Blue Jay outings—both Toronto losses—and has yet to work past the fifth inning. Rockford noted that New York is crushing on the road, batting .261 away from the Bronx and coming off a double-digit run outburst earlier in the day. He doubts the Jays can generate enough offense to keep up while Scherzer is still getting stretched out, so anything at –140 or better is a green light.

Razzle said Carlos Rodon is firmly in play on the six-game slate even though Toronto owns the lowest strike-out rate in baseball. Rodon’s Yankee Stadium splits remain excellent—higher WHIP but still an elite strike-out percentage—and his individual history against this batting order shows a 25 % K-rate (22 punch-outs over 86 plate appearances). The only hitter who has really hurt him is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (8-for-12, 3 BB, 0 K). On a slate lacking many aces, Razzle believes Rodon’s raw ceiling at $9.4K on DraftKings outweighs the matchup risk.

Kenny G told listeners to lay the –190 on New York at home against Oakland. He pointed to the Yankees’ 24-16 record in the Bronx and a bullpen that ranks sixth in MLB with a 3.48 ERA. Marcus Stroman returns from the IL with a 3.09 season ERA, while Luis Severino’s career marks at Yankee Stadium are ugly (6.17 ERA, .298 opponent average) and the right-hander has historically struggled versus his old club. New York’s lineup has been volatile—scoring 0, 3, 7, 4, 1, 4 runs in its last six—yet still sits top-five in runs, batting average, and OBP. With a big relief-pitching edge and a motivational “bounce-back” spot after two quiet offensive games, Kenny felt the current money-line price remains fair value.

Matt Perrault told listeners the only side that makes sense in Sunday’s Yankees-A’s matchup is the full-game Under 10. He pointed out that New York has not cleared a total since 11 June, a stretch of 16 straight contests that have either pushed or stayed Under. The recent score log underscores how punch-less Yankee games have been: 2-1, 3-4, 2-0, 1-0, 4-0, 3-2, 7-3, 5-3, 9-0, 4-2, 6-1, 5-4, 7-1, 3-0. Perrault likes Luis Severino’s road profile for Oakland—2.27 ERA overall and just three earned runs combined in four of his last five road starts—and expects him to keep the Bronx bats quiet. The only hesitation is Marcus Stroman’s tiny home sample (13.50 ERA, .360 BAA in 5.1 Yankee Stadium innings) and potential bullpen volatility, but Perrault still believes the long-running trend plus Severino’s form makes an Under ticket the sharp side if bettors want extra action.

Scott Reichel said to lay the Yankees –1.5 at –125 because the gap between the two starters is massive right now. Clarke Schmidt has tossed 20⅔ straight scoreless innings and took a no-hitter into the seventh in his last appearance. JP Sears, meanwhile, owns a 5-plus ERA and Oakland has lost seven of his last eight starts. Reichel added that the A’s bullpen remains shaky and New York’s lineup should cash in on multiple scoring chances, making a multi-run victory the most likely outcome.

Cash Out Sports Picks said New York is a run-line smash against Oakland. Clark Schmidt enters with a 2.84 ERA and has been "practically untouchable" over his last three outings, while J.P. Sears owns a 5.44 ERA, an 0-4 record and a 5.74 career ERA in six appearances versus the Yankees. New York leads MLB with an .805 OPS against left-handed pitching and their 32 homers off southpaws trail only the Dodgers. Oakland is 4-13 versus the Yankees since 2023 and has lost seven of the last nine meetings by two-plus runs. With Aaron Judge, Trent Grisham, Cody Bellinger and the rest of the lineup healthy, the tout expects Schmidt to cruise and the AL-East leaders to win comfortably and cover the spread.

Kenny G recommended taking the Yankees at –245 despite the steep price. He highlighted Clarke Schmidt’s white-hot run—three straight dominant outings capped by seven no-hit innings against Baltimore—and New York’s reliable 3.50 bullpen ERA. Oakland counters with JP Sears, who does own a solid five-inning, one-run start against the Yanks back in May, but the A’s league-worst 5.98 bullpen ERA and ice-cold bats (three total runs in their last three games, none in the past two) make it hard for them to keep pace. New York is 24-16 at home while Oakland is just 18-23 on the road, giving Kenny enough confidence to side with the favorite, even if it doesn’t earn his official “lock” label.

B Wade said Clarke Schmidt is a strong UNDER 5.5 hits-allowed play. Schmidt has stayed below 5.5 hits in 8 of 12 starts (67%) and even cleared the tighter 4.5 line in those same outings. He blanked opponents in each of his last three appearances while logging back-to-back outings of seven-plus innings. Schmidt already held the A’s to four hits in their lone 2024 meeting and now faces an Oakland lineup that managed only three total knocks Friday versus rookie Will Warren. Yankee Stadium has been kind—Schmidt has exceeded 5.5 hits only twice there all season. With his current form plus the A’s offensive funk, Wade projected another quality start and fewer than six hits allowed.

It's The Final Round pointed to Cody Bellinger’s 3-for-4 (.750) track record against Mitch Spence—good for a .375 average including all outcomes—and his seven hits in the last nine games as reasons to back the former MVP in Friday betting markets.

Lindquist singled out Anthony Volpe as his favorite long-shot dinger pick Wednesday, pointing to the short porches and hitter-friendly summer weather at Great American Ball Park. Volpe has been Lindquist’s "great white hope" all season, rewarding bettors with a career-best hard-hit rate and an improving fly-ball profile, and he now gets a park upgrade plus below-average Reds pitching. With Volpe leading off, Lindquist likes both the home-run prop and complementary markets such as 2+ total bases, but the headline play is the home run ticket at generous odds.

Despite Great American Ball Park’s hitter-friendly reputation, Razzle is eager to roster Max Fried. The left-hander’s K-prop sits at 5.5 with over juice, and Cincinnati ranks 28th in wRC+ and 30th in ISO against lefties. Fried has punched out 16 batters in his last two starts and owns a 2.45 ERA on the road this season. Razzle noted the Reds struck out nine times against fellow lefty Carlos Rodon the night before, reinforcing Fried’s path to a 25-plus DK point outing.

Lonte Smith played the Yankees money line and run line, banking on Carlos Rodon to rebound after getting tagged for 11 earned runs in back-to-back Boston starts. Prior to that hiccup Rodon had surrendered only 11 earned in his previous ten outings, sporting a 3.10 ERA and 0.98 WHIP overall. Smith acknowledged Chase Burns’ gaudy minor-league numbers but argued debuting against New York’s veteran lineup under the bright lights is a different animal. He expects the Yankees to lean on their familiarity thanks to Scranton’s recent matchup with Burns and sees Rodon working deep enough to turn the game over to a rested high-leverage bullpen. He also leaned under 9.5 but made the run-line his primary wager.

Guy Boston Sports recommended laying the short –120 price with New York despite rookie Allan Winans drawing the start. Winans dominated Triple-A (0.90 ERA, 1.04 WHIP in 11 outings) and faces Cincinnati in 95-degree weather with light winds, a recipe for runs at Great American Ballpark where the total is already 10. Nick Lodolo owns a 4.60 ERA at home and has let left-handed bats slash .290/.354/.503, so lefties like Bellinger, Chisholm and even Trent Grisham could do damage. The Yankees’ offense looks alive again after scoring 9, 4, and 7 runs their last three, and their bullpen grades slightly better than Cincinnati’s. With a high-scoring environment expected, he also leaned to the full-game over or a Yankees team total, but the main taek is that New York is still the superior lineup and bullpen and is undervalued because of the unproven starter.

Just A Bet Outside highlighted Paul Goldschmidt as one of Monday’s top hitter targets. Goldy owns a 4-for-8 career line off Reds left-hander Nick Lodolo, and those four hits are not cheap singles – three have gone for extra bases and two left the yard. Lodolo is scuffling right now, giving up 11 earned runs in 15.1 June innings, so the matchup lines up for St. Louis’ veteran slugger to do damage again. The tout framed Goldschmidt as an ideal DFS play or total-bases prop, noting the small Great American Ball Park and Lodolo’s recent volatility as additional tailwinds.

Scott Reichel agreed with the Under but added that the Yankees are the side to back around –120. Reichel thinks the betting market is still pricing Nick Lodolo on reputation even though he has coughed up 11 runs across his last three starts. The Reds offense is sputtering, and Lodolo will be opposed by newcomer Clayton Winnins, whose 0.90 ERA over 50 Triple-A innings suggests he could surprise after an ugly stint with Atlanta. Reichel emphasized that New York’s bats were quiet in two of three games versus Baltimore and Kramer Robertson just carved them up, so oddsmakers are inflating Lodolo despite recent form. He projects a 4-3 type game, recommending Yankees moneyline and the same Under 10 Dylan played.

Despite dropping seven of nine, the Yankees remain top-four in key hitting categories and top-11 on the mound. Ryan Yarbrough has yielded only three earned across his last 10 innings, whereas Reds lefty Nick Lodolo has been battered for 11 runs over 15.1 frames this month, giving him a 6.46 June ERA. New York’s bullpen (3.46 ERA) also grades far better than Cincinnati’s (4.13). Add in the Yankees’ .742 OPS with RISP versus the Reds’ .719, and Cash Out Sports Picks laid the juice with the Bronx Bombers.

Bettor Mark backed the Yankees on the run line (-1.5) in Baltimore. He highlighted a perfect hitter’s weather profile – 90-degree temps, heavy humidity and a wind pattern blowing out – that should make Camden Yards play small. Mark noted the Yankees just hung nine runs on the Orioles Saturday and expects that momentum to carry over, especially with Dean Kremer’s 1.48 HR/9 and 44% hard-hit rate on the mound for Baltimore. If New York puts up a 7-2 type score, bettors cash the run line without worrying about a full-game total that could be sunk if the Orioles’ offense stays quiet after Saturday’s shutout. Mark admitted he hates betting a public side like the Yankees, but the weather, matchup and Kremer’s fly-ball profile outweighed those concerns.

Ron Romanelli laid the -1.5 with New York, saying Will Warren’s form has quietly flipped a switch. After surrendering 11 runs in 7.2 innings in back-to-back starts versus Boston and Los Angeles, the Yankee rookie has logged 11.2 frames of three-run, zero-homer baseball with a sparkling 15-to-1 K/BB ratio across his last two turns. Romanelli expects that sharper command to continue and trusts New York’s lineup to give him cover against Dean Kramer, whose road ERA is sitting just under 6.00 despite a decent five-inning outing his last trip. Even acknowledging the Yankees’ recent offensive inconsistency, Ron believes the combination of Warren’s upswing and Kramer’s shaky travel profile makes the run-line worth the risk.

Cash Out Sports Picks said the Yankees were a clear moneyline play against Baltimore because Dean Kremer has been awful away from Camden Yards (5.91 ERA, 35 ER in 53.1 IP) and has already allowed multiple homers in four different starts. New York’s offense has finally heated up, collecting 24 hits and 12 runs over the last two games and ranking top-10 in both batting average and runs scored. Rookie right-hander Will Warren has walked only one batter across his last 11.2 innings, a perfect match-up versus an Orioles lineup that sits 26th in walk rate and is batting just .229 on the road. With the Yankees’ bullpen outperforming Baltimore’s, the tout expected New York to ride Saturday’s momentum and cash the moneyline.

Jay Yang said to lay the New York Yankees -1.5 runs at +100 in Sunday’s early 11:35 AM game against the Orioles. He noted that Baltimore has been a trendy public side, creating value on the Yankees’ run line. The handicap centers on a clear pitching edge: Jimmy Warren projects better than Dean Kremer and is less homer-prone, while Kremer has surrendered a league-high barrel rate and has been particularly vulnerable to home runs. Day-game splits further tilt things toward New York—Yang pointed out the Yankees’ offense is 17-11 in daytime starts and owns a significantly higher wOBA under sunlight, whereas Kremer’s ERA rises more than a run in day games. Warren is not elite in daylight either, but Yang stressed he is still markedly better than Kremer. He framed the matchup as a classic bounce-back spot for a Yankees club that performs better in early start times and expects the Bronx lineup to cash in on a homer-friendly matchup. All of this, combined with plus money on the -1.5 run line, made the Yankees his favorite free play of the card.

Eric Lindquist laid the Yankees –1.5 at –108 (comfortable to –120) because he sees a lopsided pitching duel. Max Fried’s 1.90 ERA is supported by a 0.300 xwOBA and microscopic 5.4 % walk rate, and the southpaw draws a left-leaning Orioles order that has to wedge Kobe Mayo, Ramon Urias and Dylan Carlson into awkward platoon spots. Baltimore’s contact profile is unlikely to punish Fried’s merely-solid 24 % K-rate. On the flip side, Tomoyuki Sugano brings a dangerous 14 % strikeout rate into Yankee Stadium on a hot, humid night—conditions Lindquist says amplify New York’s right-handed power. With so many mismatches and a friendly opening price, he expects the Bombers to cover the run line comfortably.

Razzle called Max Fried a priority spend-up. At Truist Park he owns a microscopic 0.46 HR/9 and sub-3% barrel rate this season. The visiting Orioles have slumped to a 25% K-rate and .291 OBP over the past two weeks. Fried’s only blemish is a slightly elevated walk rate, but the matchup’s power-suppression plus strikeout potential outweighs that. Razzle projects another 25-30 DK point outing, making Fried a cash-game anchor and GPP building block.

Scott Reichel said the only bet that interests him in Yankees-Orioles is the under, projecting a total of 8–8.5 that he thinks is a run too high. He trusts Max Fried’s 1.45 ERA in Yankee Stadium (9-2 overall record) to carry the pitching side and wants to fade a slumping Yankee lineup that has been dragged down by a bottom-third of the order hitting under .210 and an ice-cold Aaron Judge. Reichel noted that New York needed perfect hitter-friendly wind conditions just to scratch out runs against Tyler Anderson on Thursday. Baltimore’s offense is merely average and he doubts they string together rallies against Fried. With the Yankees likely laying around –200, he refuses to pay that tax and prefers the under as the safest angle.

Kenny G said the Yankees are worth eating the –230 moneyline because Max Fried has been a certified slump-buster. Fried is 9-2 with a 1.89 ERA and is coming off 7 strong innings (9 K, 2 ER) at Fenway. Baltimore counters with Sagano, who has not been sharp and now hands things to a bullpen carrying a 4.58 ERA, sixth worst in MLB. The Orioles’ offense is also sputtering—24th in runs and batting just .241—while New York still ranks third in runs despite a recent seven-game skid. Both clubs trend heavily to the Under in the Bronx (BAL 24-13-1, NYY 22-14-1), but Kenny is prioritizing the safer Yankees moneyline (or first-five) behind the ace rather than forcing an Under in front of a shaky Baltimore pen. He labeled it a potential "lock of the day" candidate.