New York Yankees

Guy Boston expects a strong offensive performance from the Yankees, citing their momentum after a late rally yesterday, when they scored three runs in the bottom of the ninth inning despite otherwise quiet offensive production earlier in the game. Given the strength of their lineup overall, he anticipates this offense using that late-game momentum as a springboard today, ultimately liking the Yankees team total over.

Cash Out Sports Picks liked the New York Yankees on the money line against the Diamondbacks due to their impressive offensive consistency at home, as they average over five runs per game at Yankee Stadium. Additionally, they noted Arizona ranks in the league's upper half in extra-base hits away from home, showing offensive capability but highlighting the Yankees slight edge in home production. Both lineups were recognized for effectiveness against right-handed pitching this season, but Cash Out Sports Picks expects the Yankees' superior home offense to ultimately prevail.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended betting the Yankees money line, highlighting key matchup specifics. Arizona's offensive struggles this season versus lefties—just a .219 average with only one home run—greatly contrasts to last year's league-leading .284 mark in this split, making Carlos Rodon well-positioned to maintain his solid early-season form. Despite Rodon's previous career struggles against Arizona, the Yankees' league-leading offense (18 HR, 10.3 R/G, and 1.1 OPS) and their productive showing at Yankee Stadium strongly suggest a bounce-back Yankees victory against a vulnerable Diamondbacks squad relying on Zach Gallen coming off a shaky outing vs Chicago.

Tokyo Brandon recommended betting against Yankees pitcher Carlos Carrasco in the first five innings when they face the Diamondbacks. Brandon emphasized that Carrasco, now 39 and having battled cancer, has significantly declined recently, with WHIP declining from a prime of around 1.00 to as high as 1.70 in recent seasons. Carrasco's season opener was particularly troubling: in just two innings against a struggling Milwaukee lineup, he allowed three earned runs and gave up a home run. Additionally, Carrasco last faced Arizona in 2024 and was hit hard, surrendering four earned runs in four innings. Considering Arizona ranks third in MLB offense per Brandon's metrics, he expects Carrasco to be vulnerable again early in the matchup.

Zach Thompson highlighted Aaron Judge as a high-quality DFS outfield pick, expecting him to rebound against Merrill Kelly. Despite recent struggles (five strikeouts in his last eight at-bats in the Arizona series), Judge maintains a season batting line of .368, four home runs, and an elite .626 wOBA. He holds strong past success against Merrill Kelly (including a home run) and is primed for a turnaround.

Ben Rice, identified by Zach Thompson, emerged as a great DFS budget bat due to his power potential vs Merrill Kelly. Rice earned his spot with an explosive spring (five homers, .359 wOBA) and continues to impress, hitting .385 with two home runs and a .565 wOBA so far this season. Particularly strong against righties (seven of his eight MLB homers off RHP), Rice faces a favorable matchup against Kelly, presenting great DFS value.

NBC Sports Bet Staff recommended backing the Yankees moneyline against the Diamondbacks, making use of their betting model predictions. Despite the Yankees struggling offensively with 30 strikeouts over the last two games, the tout looks to capitalize on a bounce-back performance and regression to their offensive mean at home behind Carlos Carrasco, whose opening start was rough but limited sample size. The Diamondbacks managed just three hits on Wednesday and could face similar offensive troubles against Carrasco.

Eric Lindquist advised closely watching Jazz Chisholm's RBI bets in live betting markets. Despite Chisholm only managing a single early without runners on, Lindquist highlighted the ninth-inning bump that bettors often undervalue in live lines when the team (Yankees, down 4-0 at the time) is behind. Lindquist emphasizes that live betting lines sometimes overlook this late-game hitting advantage, recommending bettors seek out advantageous live opportunities with Chisholm given these conditions.

Greg Peterson advises fading Carlos Carrasco due to uncertainty in his pitching length and recent struggles. Carrasco has struggled significantly since 2021, posting a 5.36 ERA, 4.66 FIP, and allowing 1.5 home runs per 9 innings. His rocky 2025 relief outing versus Milwaukee (3 runs in 2 IP) creates uncertainty about how deep he'll pitch. Despite the Yankees' strong bullpen (2nd-best AL ERA: 3.62 in 2023), Peterson believes Arizona has betting value at -104, versus a fair implied price of -123.

Peter Dewey recommended betting the under on Carlos Carrasco's strikeout total (set at 3.5) due to a combination of matchup difficulty and short leash. Carrasco struggled in his season debut for the Yankees, pitching just two innings while allowing three runs and five hits against Milwaukee. Dewey noted the strong plate discipline of the Arizona Diamondbacks lineup, averaging only 6.83 strikeouts per game, third-lowest in MLB. With Carrasco unlikely to pitch deep into the game and facing a lineup that rarely strikes out, Dewey expects him to stay under the set strikeout total.

Kyle Purviance advises betting the under on Carlos Carrasco's strikeout prop against the Diamondbacks. Carrasco recorded only two strikeouts in two innings against the Brewers before getting pulled early in his last appearance. Arizona has been among the toughest teams to strike out early this season, ranking second-fewest in team strikeouts. Given Arizona's ability to consistently put the ball in play and Carrasco's current struggles, Purviance strongly advocates the strikeout under as a play if the line opens around 3.5.

While recognizing Aaron Judge faces a positive batter matchup against Merrill Kelly on April 3rd, It's The Final Round expressed hesitation to recommend Judge in his betting selections. He noted that Judge's odds are typically inflated by sportsbooks because of his high profile and past success. Consequently, despite expecting good performance, the inflated prices attached to Judge diminish his betting value, leading It's The Final Round to advise pursuing other options instead of prioritizing Judge in parlays or hit props.

Bettor Mark advises betting the Diamondbacks at +115 in their matchup against the Yankees, explicitly citing a fade of starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco. Mark respects Carrasco's past career but explicitly distrusts the veteran based on recent performance despite a decent spring training. He sees significant value, calling the Yankees a "sucker bet" at their favored price, and emphasizes his confidence in Arizona's offense after they won 4-3 the previous day, though he believes they left additional runs on the table. He recommends exploiting this inflated line in favor of Arizona.

Ben Rasa highlighted the Yankees at -135 as a solid betting value given their pitching advantage and home field situation. He pointed out Carlos Rodon's strong start to the season, noting his efficiency in going five and a third innings last time out, allowing minimal damage. Additionally, Rasa emphasized Rodon's notably improved ERA splits pitching at home versus the road last year (3.11 home ERA versus 4.69 away). In comparison, Zac Gallen struggled in his season opener, lasting just four innings while allowing four hits, four walks, and four runs. Rasa sees the Yankees' potent offense continuing to produce consistently, especially at home, and expects Rodon to match up well against the Diamondbacks lineup. With the Yankees coming off a bullpen meltdown in their previous game, Rasa expects a bounce-back performance here and considers the -135 moneyline price as strong betting value before it drifts towards heavier odds.

Eric Lindquist identified Jazz Chisholm RBIs as an appealing play due to high expected walk rates for teammate Aaron Judge. Lindquist pointed out that opposing pitchers are likely to pitch carefully to Judge, significantly increasing Chisholm's RBI opportunities batting ahead or directly following Judge in the lineup. Citing odds movement (initially +175, moving to +195), Lindquist considers this play attractive due to Judge’s protection effect. He highlighted that Arizona starter Zac Gallen historically struggles against left-handed hitters, adding extra support for Chisholm's RBI potential in a batter-friendly setting at Yankee Stadium.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended betting the Yankees money line against the Diamondbacks, emphasizing New York's elite offensive production, currently leading MLB with a 1.1 team OPS, 18 home runs, and an average of 10.3 runs per game. The Diamondbacks Zach Gallen dominated the Yankees in prior appearances but recently struggled severely in his opening start against the Cubs. Furthermore, Arizona has struggled against left-handed pitching with a .219 average this season. While Carlos Rodon traditionally performed poorly against Arizona, his recent strong start combined with Yankees powerful offensive start justified picking New York.

Eric Lindquist pointed out concerns involving Yankees pitcher Will Warren, whose underlying metrics last season revealed troubling signs despite his strong strikeout capabilities. Warren showed a very high 50.7% hard-hit rate along with a 427 expected slugging percentage and a 327 expected weighted on-base average (xWOBA). Given these issues, Lindquist suggested the Diamondbacks versus Yankees total over 8.5 runs as a good play, particularly considering favorable weather conditions—winds blowing out at approximately 9-10 mph to the short porch in Yankee Stadium.

Cash Out Sports Picks advised betting the Yankees money line due to a clear bullpen advantage. New York's bullpen has a 2.92 ERA, ranking 13th in MLB, whereas Arizona's bullpen is struggling at 22nd with a 5.87 ERA. Yankees hitters have historically excelled against Corbin Burnes and currently lead MLB early on with 15 home runs, providing offensive firepower further supporting their case for victory in this matchup.

Just a Bet Outside outlined reasons to avoid Aaron Judge today against Arizona's ace Corbin Burnes. Despite Judge's recent hot streak, he specifically highlighted Judge's struggles historically against Burnes, with an 0-for-7 record and 3 strikeouts. Burnes' pitching style typically induces weak contact and generates ground balls at an elite rate, especially valuable at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. Given Judge's poor history against Burnes, fading him appears wise.

Joe Piapisa emphasized Anthony Volpe's recent home run production surge, crediting the use of the innovative torpedo bats. Joe explained that these bats, designed by MIT engineers, significantly shift barrel positioning to match players' primary contact areas, resulting in improved power numbers. Given Volpe’s multiple recent homers and sustained success using these bats, Joe suggested incorporating this information into fantasy lineup decisions and betting markets, particularly given the favorable home park advantage at Yankee Stadium.

Joe Piapisa highlighted Jazz Chisholm as a significant beneficiary of the Yankees' adoption of the new 'torpedo' bats. Chisholm posted a stellar recent performance, going three for four with two homers. Joe specifically pointed out Chisholm's dramatic exit velocity increase this season, jumping from around 90 mph last year to approximately 105 mph this year. He attributes this boost directly to the innovative bat design, whose barrel is strategically moved to match hitters' most consistent contact points. Joe advises considering these factors when evaluating home run or power prop bets, especially when Chisholm plays at hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.

Kyle Purviance noted an intriguing opportunity to fade Yankees pitcher Will Warren, who is making his MLB debut against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Despite a line that recently moved slightly toward the Yankees at minus 105, Purviance pointed out that Warren, as a rookie debutante, could struggle facing veteran Corbin Burnes and a Diamondbacks roster. With the price already moving from around minus 120 to minus 115 in favor of Diamondbacks, Purviance plans to wait until morning to see if an even better value emerges, suggesting greater potential value backing Arizona against an untested pitcher making his first career appearance.

Eric Polzin highlighted Marcus Stroman's over fantasy score as the optimal MLB prop pick of the day, factoring in strong backing across sportsbook averages and projection data. Stroman projects at around 5.4 innings pitched and a solid betting line of 25.7 on sportsbooks. Polzin also noted the Brewers were blown out previously and regression is possible, but still saw clear overall value on Stroman's PrizePicks line, particularly given the difference in lines between PrizePicks and Underdog.

Guy Boston advised betting Marcus Stroman over 4.5 hits allowed against the Brewers, largely due to unfavorable pitch matchups. Stroman primarily utilizes a sinker, slider, and curveball—a trio of pitches the Brewers hammered last season, ranking 6th, 3rd, and 5th respectively in runs above average. Boston highlighted Stroman's struggles in a recent outing against Milwaukee, allowing six hits in just over four innings pitched. Milwaukee's recent offensive performance—scoring nine runs the previous game—suggests their bats are heating up. Boston warned that Stroman could exit early if he struggles again, but stressed that Milwaukee's historical effectiveness against his pitch mix makes the hits-allowed prop a strong play.

JD Bets advised caution betting on the Yankees following their explosive 20-9 performance the previous day. He outlined the common betting principle that teams tend to regress offensively after extremely high-scoring games. Despite Marcus Stroman's strong historical record against Brewers hitters, JD Bets' primary reasoning was concern over possible regression from the Yankees' offense and inconsistency shown by pitcher Aaron Civale. Ultimately, the wager was not worth the risk given the volatility involved, suggesting a complete pass on bets involving the Yankees.

Cash Out Sports Picks Expresses strong confidence in Marcus Stroman in his upcoming matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers. Highlighting career dominance versus Milwaukee—Stroman is 3-1 over eight starts, backed by a solid 3.10 ERA with 40 strikeouts and just 30 hits allowed over 49.1 innings. Stroman navigated spring training with a notably better ERA (4.73) compared to Civale’s struggles. Additionally, the Yankees' offense has pressured Milwaukee's bullpen earlier in the series, setting the stage nicely with Stroman pitching at home in a favorable position. Cash Out Sports Picks firmly recommends backing the Yankees money line here.

Chris Morgan encouraged DFS players to stack Yankees hitters Cody Bellinger, Jazz Chisholm, and Anthony Volpe against Brewers pitcher Aaron Civale, who saw noteworthy regression in 2024 with an elevated ERA (4.36) and increased home run susceptibility (1.62 HR/9). Civale's continually dropping groundball rate (down to 35.6%) makes him especially vulnerable to power at the Yankees’ home park. Morgan emphasized the two lefties, Bellinger and Chisholm, given their advantage over Civale (righty) and Yankee Stadium favoring hitters. He also highlighted Volpe’s considerable power-speed combination as significant DFS upside, citing his impressive counting stats from his rookie season (12 HR, 28 SB).

Sean Paul emphasizes Aaron Judge as a strong option for betting props or DFS plays Sunday against Brewers pitcher Aaron Civale. Judge coming off an explosive performance on Saturday where he went 4-for-6 with 3 home runs and 8 RBIs. Paul reasoned Judge's dominance will continue, as opposing pitchers will increasingly pitch around him, creating more traffic and pressure on opposing pitchers and enhancing scoring potential. Given Civale's past struggles (nine runs allowed in 9.2 innings) when pitching at Yankee Stadium and vulnerability to the short porch in right field, Paul expects Judge to again generate significant offensive production.

Sean Paul highlighted Yankees shortstop Anthony Volpe as an intriguing player to monitor closely due to his new bat design. Volpe, along with teammate Jazz Chisholm Jr., employed a new bat that shifts more wood toward the label, producing harder contact even away from the traditional sweet spot. Notably, both players homered using this new model, suggesting it has genuine impact potential. Paul believes this innovation could help boost Volpe's offensive output moving forward and potentially increase Yankees' game totals as this bat gains wider adoption within the team.

Ricky Dimon advised betting on the Yankees ML over the Brewers, due to New York's impressive 20-run offensive display on Saturday being indicative of their true offensive potential rather than a fluke. He highlighted Aaron Judge's massive performance (8 RBIs, 3 homers), alongside Cody Bellinger going 3-for-5 with a homer, 4 RBIs, and 3 runs scored. Dimon expressed doubts about Aaron Civale's ability to manage Yankee hitters; Civale's 8-9 record and 4.36 ERA combined with Yankee Stadium's advantage for lefty hitters point to potential difficulties for the right-hander. He added that while Marcus Stroman, Yankees' pitcher, also faces a tough ballpark environment, Stroman's previous experience pitching regularly in the Bronx and solid performance give him an advantage. Therefore, Dimon expects the Yankees to maintain offensive momentum and secure another win.

Bettor Mark recommended betting the Yankees to go over 4.5 team total runs (+114). He highlighted recent offensive trends, including the Yankees setting a home run record at Yankee Stadium, notably Aaron Judge hitting three homers the day prior. Mark emphasized favorable conditions, including the Yankees employing different shaped bats, and Marcus Stroman's matchup presenting an advantageous spot for New York's potent offense. He preferred the team total bet over money line or run line options due to better risk mitigation, ensuring a winning play even if New York wins in a shootout scenario.

In his Brewers vs Yankees analysis, Sean Paul selected Max Fried to achieve at least five strikeouts as part of his parlay play. Paul noted Fried's electric stuff, despite not historically being recognized primarily as a strikeout pitcher. The Brewers lineup exhibited strikeout vulnerability in their opening game, with Jackson Chourio notably striking out in all five plate appearances. Given Fried's talent and Milwaukee's early-season K-prone tendencies, Paul believes this strikeout threshold is highly attainable.

Sean Paul included Yankees first baseman Paul Goldschmidt in his recommended same-game parlay, projecting at least two total bases. The Yankees strategically lead off with Goldschmidt against left-handed pitchers, which is particularly useful with Milwaukee starting lefty Nestor Cortes Jr. Goldschmidt is likely to get four or five at-bats, which along with his extensive experience against NL Central opponents like the Brewers, enhances his probability of accumulating bases. Given the matchup and Goldschmidt's historical effectiveness against left-handed pitching, Paul views him as a strong parlay candidate for productive hitting.

Sean Paul feels confident in backing Max Fried during his first start with the New York Yankees against the Brewers. Fried signed an extensive 8-year, $218 million deal this offseason and has excelled at limiting hard contact—ranking in the 95th percentile in average exit velocity, 89th percentile in hard-hit rate, and 96th percentile in ground-ball rate. Although Fried occasionally struggles with command (walking 2.93 batters per nine innings last year), Paul believes the pitcher's ability to induce soft contact aligns perfectly with attacking Milwaukee's lineup, which performed poorly in their opener and whose key hitters—Jackson Chourio and Christian Yelich—appeared overmatched. These factors contributed to Paul's strong Yankees -1.5 run-line play.

NBC Sports Bet Staff sees value on the Yankees comfortably covering the -1.5 spread line at Yankee Stadium on Saturday against the Brewers. The Yankees are fresh off an impressive Opening Day win, featuring a solid pitching performance from Carlos Rodon (1 earned run over 5.1 innings) and power hitting with home runs from Austin Wells and Anthony Volpe. Meanwhile, the Brewers struggled offensively, striking out 13 times and scoring only once. New York starter Max Fried, who compiled an 11-10 record with a 3.25 ERA last season, faces Nestor Cortes (9-10, 3.77 ERA), creating a perceived mismatch benefiting the Yankees' lineup. The staff's model indicates higher confidence in the Yankees keeping sustained offensive pressure on Milwaukee, widening the margin beyond 1.5 runs.

NBC Sports Bet Staff recommends betting the New York Yankees moneyline (-155) on Saturday afternoon's matchup against the Brewers. Their betting model, which incorporates player statistics, historical performance, player matchups, ballpark factors, and weather forecasts, sees strong value on New York winning outright. This confidence is supported by the Yankees' Game 1 victory this past Thursday, in which they secured a win behind solid pitching by Carlos Rodon (5.1 innings, 1 run allowed, 10 strikeouts as a team) and home runs from Austin Wells and Anthony Volpe. The Brewers, who struggled with 13 strikeouts in Game 1, face former-Yankee Nestor Cortes (3.77 ERA last year), while the Yankees hand the ball to Max Fried, who recorded a solid 3.25 ERA in 2024.

NBC Sports Bet Staff strongly recommend betting on the New York Yankees moneyline and -1.5 run line on Saturday against the Brewers. Their model identifies value with the Yankees behind new starter Max Fried, who posted an 11-10 record with a 3.25 ERA over 174.1 innings in 2024. Fried faces Milwaukee starter Nestor Cortes, who was more pedestrian last season at 9-10 with a 3.77 ERA. Additionally, the article notes Milwaukee struggled offensively in the opener with just 7 hits and 13 strikeouts, suggesting their lineup could again struggle. The Yankees also won the opener 2-1 behind Carlos Rodon's strong start, indicating their staff is already performing well to begin the season. They also advised the over on the total of 8 runs, suggesting additional confidence in New York's ability to score on Milwaukee pitching.

Lonte Smith predicts Yankees outfielder Jasson Dominguez will hit a home run against Brewers pitcher Nestor Cortes. Dominguez struggled in his previous game, going 0-for-3, but Smith believes Cortes presents a favorable matchup. Cortes has shown the tendency to occasionally miss location and leave pitches hittable, setting the stage perfectly for a Dominguez rebound in power. Smith sees Dominguez at a likely favorable price given his quiet previous performance, offering value as a bounce-back slugger with homerun upside against Cortes's vulnerability to mistakes over the plate.

Lonte Smith expressed skepticism towards Max Fried's chances for success in his Yankees debut against the Brewers. Despite Fried's decent statistics historically (2-1, 1.3 ERA) against Milwaukee, Lonte specifically highlighted that he hasn't pitched against them since 2022 and noted lingering concerns over Fried's effectiveness late last year, noting previous injury issues and underperformance relative to his perceived reputation as a Cy Young fringe candidate. With Nestor Cortes effectively pitching against his old Yankees teammates in what's effectively a home-field situation, Lonte sees value in fading Fried at inflated prices on Saturday, recommending betting on the Brewers as underdogs.

Kyle Purviance strongly backs the Yankees double result (winning first five innings and full game) against Milwaukee. His confidence is driven by the Yankees facing former teammate Nestor Cortes, citing the team's familiarity with Cortes from years pitching in New York. He emphasized Cortes is vulnerable against a lineup that knows him inside-out. Moreover, Purviance highlighted Max Fried's elite talent, noting Milwaukee struggled against left-handed pitching in their opening game and expects similar difficulty here due to Fried's high-end pitching arsenal. Both bullpens are excellent, but he reasons the Yankees won't lose a lead once established early, suggesting significant betting value at plus money odds (+120).

Cash Out Sports Picks highlighted the Yankees as their money line play against Milwaukee largely due to the pitching advantage provided by newly acquired Max Fried. Fried has maintained an impressive 73-36 record, with a strong 3.07 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over his MLB career. They emphasized Milwaukee's offensive struggles in their season opener, producing just two runs, compared to New York's four-run output featuring home runs from key bats like Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger. Additionally, Brewer's pitcher Nestor Cortes faces the added pressure of pitching against his former team in Yankee Stadium, potentially leading to emotional and control issues which the Yankees lineup could exploit. The recent head-to-head history also favors New York, with four wins in the last five matchups.

Bryan Zarpentine likes Cody Bellinger's odds for at least two total bases on his Yankees debut against Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Freddy Peralta. Zarpentine highlights that Bellinger came off a scorching spring with a .423 batting average and a 1.214 OPS. Even more encouraging is his career history facing Peralta, where he's gone 5-for-12 including two extra-base hits, combined with the hitter-friendly advantages of playing at Yankee Stadium. Those factors make Bellinger's prop bet a valuable option at plus odds (+165).

Peter Dewey advised betting Aaron Judge over 0.5 walks on Opening Day, noting Judge's already impressive walk history by leading the AL in walks two of the past three seasons and the majors with 133 walks in 2024. With Juan Soto now with the Mets and Giancarlo Stanton on the injured list, the Yankees lack solid threats to protect Judge in the batting order. As a result, opposing teams may choose frequently to pitch around him, making this walk prop a strong bet early this season.

Eric Lindquist advised on betting the under 5.5 strikeouts for Carlos Rodon against Milwaukee. Lindquist thinks the opening line is inflated considering Rodon's pitch count limitations, given the Yankees' pitching staff challenges with Gerrit Cole out for Tommy John surgery. He expects the Yankees will be cautious with Rodon early, likely capping him around 80-85 pitches. Additionally, weather forecasts project winds blowing out to right field at 10-12 mph in Yankee Stadium, creating a tougher pitching environment and potentially limiting Rodon's longevity in the game.