B Wade prefers Cristopher Sanchez at an alternate 3.5-strikeout line instead of the listed 4.5. Sanchez has recorded at least four punch-outs in 14 consecutive starts and has fallen short of that mark only twice all season. He struck out five Padres in their meeting 11 days ago and carries a 1.13 WHIP with a sub-3.00 ERA. Dropping to 3.5 adds margin while still capitalizing on his consistent K floor, making it an ideal parlay booster in Wade’s view.

Kenny G labeled the Phillies –150 at Petco as the best value on the board. Zack Wheeler just tossed a one-hit, 12-strikeout complete game and previously shut out San Diego over eight innings with 10 Ks on June 30. Even if fatigue is a risk, Kenny refuses to fade a 2.17 ERA arm in this spot. The concern is a shaky Philadelphia bullpen (4.36 ERA), but he trusts it more than a Padres lineup sitting 24th in runs and 25th in slugging. San Diego turns to Yu Darvish (0-1, 4.91) making only his second start after an injury-marred first half; he lasted just 3.2 innings against Arizona. The Padres do sport a stout 3.28 bullpen ERA and a 29-17 home record, yet they have played 27-18-1 to the under at Petco, underscoring their offensive struggles. Kenny considered the 7.5 total but ultimately sided with Philadelphia, believing bookmakers are over-discounting Wheeler on short rest while overrating Darvish’s name brand in his current state.

Welsh likes Philadelphia to lead by at least one run after five innings at ‑110. The edge starts with the pitching matchup: the Phillies send their ace (not named in the clip) against an opponent whose rotation spot has been a revolving door. Philly’s offense leads MLB in wRC+ the first two times through the order, while its staff owns a sub-3.00 ERA through five frames. By isolating the first five, Welsh avoids a shaky middle-relief corps and counts on the Phillies’ potent top-of-lineup to jump ahead early.

Reichel also played the Phillies moneyline at –132, calling it a "pretty cheap number" against an 0-6 Verlander. Philadelphia is 29-12 at home and still carries a +72 run differential, while San Francisco owns a .222 road batting average. Verlander’s 15% K-rate is eight points below his career norm, and his four-seam is getting lit up (.567 SLG). Reichel believes the market is still pricing Verlander’s name, not his 2025 production, and thinks Philly should be north of –150.

Just A Bet Outside highlighted Jesus Luzardo as a strong K-prop candidate against San Francisco. The Giants own the league’s highest strike-out rate versus left-handed pitching over the last three weeks (29%). Luzardo has struck out 115 hitters in 97.1 innings this season and has flashed ceiling games of 10, 7, and 7 Ks in three of his last five starts. The host conceded Luzardo managed only 4 Ks in a previous April meeting with the Giants, but noted Luzardo’s 28% road K-rate and massive 40.9% strike-out rate against lefty bats. The suggestion was to play Luzardo’s strikeout over and consider him for DFS tournaments that reward punch-outs.

Bamford echoed Lonte, admitting he expected a pick’em and was stunned to see Philadelphia at +130. While Robbie Ray’s 2.57 Oracle Park ERA is impressive, Bamford trusts the Phillies bullpen behind opener Taijuan Walker and likes that Philadelphia has gone under in 10 of its last 12 road games—an indicator their pitching is carrying the load. The Giants’ bats remain bottom-third in wRC+, and Bamford highlighted that their offense has produced only 3.7 runs per game in July. Given the modest edge he assigns to the bullpens and the power disparity favoring Philly, Bamford was “completely down to the price” and grabbed the plus money.

Lonte Smith pounced on Philadelphia at +130, calling the number "absurd" given San Francisco’s offensive funk. Robbie Ray has been solid (2.57 home ERA) but owns homer and walk issues that a power-heavy Phillies lineup can exploit. Philadelphia is 6-4 over its last 10, swinging well, and Smith pointed out that the Giants just returned from three straight road series where they played .500 ball at best. San Francisco ranks 26th in OPS versus right-handed pitching, and Taijuan Walker will only be asked to serve as a two- or three-inning opener before a strong Phillies bullpen (3.41 ERA last 30 days) takes over. Smith’s bottom-line read: the Giants’ offensive struggles do not justify a –156 price, so the value sits squarely with the road dog.

Mike DFS Army advised betting J.T. Realmuto UNDER 0.5 singles in San Francisco. He dismissed recent game-log noise and focused on the difficult matchup with Giants left-hander Robbie Ray, who is limiting hitters to a .199 average. Realmuto is slashing a miserable .128 against lefties versus .307 against righties this year, making a single unlikely in pitcher-friendly Oracle Park. Books agree: Bet365 is hanging the under around –140. Given the park factor, Ray’s form, and Realmuto’s pronounced platoon split, Mike sees this as a strong fade.

Just A Bet Outside highlighted Cristopher Sanchez as Monday’s sneaky strikeout play. San Francisco has the single highest K-rate against lefties over the past three weeks at nearly 29%. Sanchez sports 108 strikeouts in 100.2 innings and already torched the Giants on April 17th, fanning 12 across seven frames—his best game of the season. Recent form shows volatility (9, 5, 4, 11, 5 Ks last five), but the host stressed that the matchup is tailor-made for his change-up heavy arsenal. Even with a lower 24.1% K-rate on the road, the Giants’ swing-and-miss profile makes the over on his strikeout prop (likely 5.5) an attractive bet with ladder potential to 8+.

Eric Lindquist said Zack Wheeler remains an elite value at +800 to win the NL Cy Young. He pointed to Wheeler’s complete-game, 12-strikeout gem last week as evidence that the right-hander’s form is peaking at the perfect time. Wheeler owns a 2.73 xERA, a career-best 30.4% strikeout rate, and has already posted two starts with double-digit punch-outs since the All-Star break. Lindquist added that Philadelphia’s bullpen depth reduces the risk of blown wins and that voters often lean toward pitchers on playoff teams—something the division-leading Phillies have going for them. With Spencer Strider out for the year and Logan Webb’s peripheral stats sliding, Lindquist argued the path for Wheeler to separate from the field is wide open, making +800 a mis-priced future he “should have nuked.”

Mike DFS Army said to take the UNDER 5.5 strikeouts on Christopher Sanchez when he faces the Giants in San Francisco. Sanchez has fallen short of this number in five of his last seven outings, and Mike pointed out that Oracle Park historically suppresses strikeouts. While Sanchez carries a season-long 26.2 % K-rate, his expected strikeout rate sits four percentage points lower at 22.6 %, indicating looming regression. The Giants’ lineup is only league-average in Ks (22.6 %), so with the park factor and the expected regression, Mike likes the under, which his DFS Army prop tool gives a 52.05 % chance to hit.

Cash Out Sports Picks recommended backing the Phillies to win and cover the run line behind ace Zack Wheeler. He contrasted Wheeler’s current heater—two earned runs allowed over his last 31 innings (0.58 ERA) with four wins in five starts—with Reds rookie Chase Burns, who has been shelled for eight runs and 11 hits in only 5.1 MLB innings and could not escape the first in his last outing. Philadelphia is 8-3 in its last 11 at Citizens Bank Park, while Cincinnati has dropped five of seven versus NL East clubs. The form gap plus home-field edge makes laying the chalk worthwhile.

B Wade played Zack Wheeler’s strikeout prop at 7.5 on Sleeper before it moved to 8.5 elsewhere. Wheeler has punched out at least eight hitters in four consecutive starts and averages exactly 8.0 Ks per game in 2025. The Reds own MLB’s 7th-highest strikeout rate, and Wheeler struck out 10 and 8 in his two meetings with them last year. At Citizens Bank Park his average rises to 8.4 Ks, and he has still cashed this ticket in five of nine home outings. With the Reds continuing to swing through everything in the current series, Wade labeled the over a plus-EV play.

Lonte Smith advised laying the -1.5 with Philadelphia because Ranger Suarez is in peak form while Nick Lodolo rarely works deep. Suarez has logged 7+ innings in five straight and posted a 1.26 ERA over that span, four of those outings coming on the road. He has yielded only three earned runs total in his last three home starts and continues to dominate with a heavy ground-ball profile. Lodolo, by contrast, has coughed up a homer in six consecutive starts and usually leaves after five innings, putting a shaky Reds bullpen on the hook for the final third of the game. Smith projected a 3-1 or 4-1 Phillies win, noting that Lodolo’s road ERA is more than a run higher than at Great American Ball Park.

B Wade said Ranger Suarez should clear 18.5 outs because the left-hander is in elite form. Over his last eight starts Suarez has surrendered only six total earned runs despite opening the season with a seven-run clunker, keeping his ERA near 2.00. He has completed the seventh inning in five straight appearances and has failed to record at least one seventh-inning out only three times all season. Wade views Suarez’s endurance and run prevention on par with Tarik Skubal and expects him to cruise through at least 6.1 innings against Cincinnati, making the over on 18.5 outs a strong prop bet.

B Wade backed Kyle Schwarber to go over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI against Reds left-hander Andrew Abbott. Schwarber is slashing .280 versus lefties, and despite only 30 percent of his at-bats coming from that side he’s logged roughly half of his home runs there, giving him a much higher HR rate. Wade noted Schwarber has not missed this line in consecutive games since early June; he fell short last time out, had July 3 off to rest, and historically rebounds the very next game. Abbott owns a tidy ERA but still carries a WHIP north of 1.00, which Wade views as exploitable. With the platoon edge, power upside, and recent ‘miss-then-hit’ pattern, Wade expects Schwarber to deliver at least two combined counting stats on Friday.

Lindquist bet Nick Castellanos over 1.5 hits + runs + RBIs (H+R+RBI) at –125 in the Cincinnati–Philadelphia series opener. He highlighted warm hitting conditions that have juiced offense at Citizens Bank all season and a favorable matchup with Reds left-hander Andrew Abbott, whose extreme 20.3-degree average launch angle can turn hard contact into cheap homers and doubles. Castellanos should stay locked into the top five of the Phillies’ order even with Bryce Harper back, giving him three clear paths (hit, run, RBI) to cash. Lindquist likes the all-inclusive H+R+RBI market because it captures Castellanos’ ability to both drive in and score runs against an arm he believes is due for regression.

Adam Rosenberg bet Jesus Luzardo OVER 17.5 outs recorded (–110), expecting the left-hander to log six full frames. Luzardo has cleared this number in three of his last four home starts and faces a Cincinnati lineup that has let four of the last five lefties go over their outs prop. The Reds sit 29th in OPS the past month, rank 23rd in average versus southpaws, and simply do not walk (bottom-10 walk rate over the last three games). Walks are normally Luzardo’s kryptonite, so a free-swinging opponent plays directly into his strengths. With a 69% first-pitch-strike rate over his past three outings and pitch counts hovering near 100, Rosenberg projects a smooth path to at least 18 outs.

Just A Bet Outside advised fading Mick Abel in the early game of the Padres–Phillies double-header, calling the rookie "due for another blow-up start." Abel’s expected ERA sits at 5.38, he is not missing bats, and the hard contact he allows is mounting. Although the walk rate is tolerable, Stephen expects San Diego’s right-hand-heavy lineup to punish Abel’s mediocre stuff in hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. He suggested betting the Padres’ team-total overs or taking San Diego on the first-five moneyline rather than trusting the rookie.

Rockford jumped on Philadelphia any time the market shows plus money against Dylan Cease. The Padres right-hander owns a 6.31 road ERA and a .341 wOBA allowed away from Petco, while the once-fearsome San Diego lineup has vanished—shut out Monday and averaging just 3.4 runs over its last 10 games. Citizens Bank Park continues to play small; the Phillies hit .273 at home and average 5.3 runs. Rockford trusts Nick Pivetta to be merely serviceable and believes Philly’s bullpen (3.47 ERA at home) can protect a lead. He made the Phillies –115 and called any plus-price "a gift."

B Wade recommended Kyle Schwarber over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI in Wednesday’s Padres-Phillies game. Schwarber has not missed this line in consecutive contests since early June, and he is coming off a hitless outing. Wade expects the immediate rebound versus Dylan Cease, noting Schwarber’s 3-for-7 lifetime line that includes two home runs off the right-hander. Cease owns a 4.50 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 2025, giving up plenty of hard contact. With Schwarber leading off in homer-friendly Citizens Bank Park, Wade projects at least two combined counting stats and likes the 2.9x payout on Parlay Play.

B Wade labeled Over 4.5 Strikeouts for Christopher Sanchez his favorite play on the slate. The southpaw has cleared this number in 12 of 16 starts overall and in every home start, averaging almost two additional punch-outs per game at Citizens Bank Park. Although San Diego is typically a low-K lineup, they fanned 11+ times against Zack Wheeler the night before. Sanchez also struck them out 5+ in his lone 2024 meeting. Wade projects another five to seven whiffs.

Kenny G leaned to Philadelphia at -170, pointing to Christopher Sanchez’s current heater (2.79 ERA, no more than two earned in five straight starts, 11-K gem last outing) and the Phillies’ 26-14 home record. He acknowledged the bullpen weakness (4.51 ERA, worst in MLB) but still prefers Sanchez to Nick Pivetta, who is 8-2 with a 3.36 ERA yet owns just two quality outings in his last five and faces a lineup that sits 11th in runs and eighth in batting average. The Padres’ offense is sputtering (zero, two, six, one, one runs last five) while Philadelphia has won three of its last four. Given Pivetta’s volatility, San Diego’s 20-24 road mark, and the Phillies’ home edge, Kenny said the slight value lies with the Phils, although he stopped short of calling it a premium wager.

Bamford highlighted Cristopher Sanchez’s outs-recorded market as a value spot, recommending the over. Sanchez has cleared 18 outs in six of his last seven appearances thanks to elite efficiency: five consecutive quality starts, zero walks in his past three games, and no homers allowed in six of seven. The Padres’ offense owns a middling .702 OPS on the road and ranks bottom-10 in pitches per plate appearance, increasing the chance Sanchez works deep. Given Philadelphia’s bullpen workloads and Sanchez’s recent leash, Bamford expects Rob Thomson to ride the left-hander into at least the seventh inning again.

The Bettor Mark liked the full-game UNDER 9 in Padres–Phillies, explaining that Zack Wheeler’s 2.45 ERA and 0.99 WHIP at Citizens Bank Park set up a pitching-driven game while Matt Waldron hasn’t started in weeks and could be rusty. He noted 6 of the clubs’ last 10 meetings have stayed below nine runs and Philadelphia’s bats have cooled (scored three or fewer in two of three at Cincinnati). At –115 or better he would rather bank on a low-scoring script than lay the –215 moneyline, suggesting a correlated Same Game Parlay of Phillies ML + Under for those wanting extra juice.

Dylan Rockford echoed Reichel’s stance, saying he’d bet the Phillies –1.5 so long as the price stayed at –120 or better (FanDuel listed –110). Rockford noted Wheeler’s 0.96 June WHIP, Philadelphia’s relief worries mitigated by a Padres lineup scoring under four runs per road game, and the lift of finally returning home after a lengthy trip. With San Diego scrambling for a starter and stuck in a 3-7 skid, Rockford expects the Phillies to win comfortably.

Scott Reichel advised laying the –1.5 run line with Philadelphia at –110. His case centered on the current trajectories of the two clubs: San Diego has dropped two of three to Cincinnati and has scored fewer than four runs per road game this year, while Philadelphia just capped a successful trip and historically plays far better at Citizens Bank Park. Reichel also highlighted Zack Wheeler’s June dominance and the Padres’ uncertainty on the mound after Ryan Bergert hit the IL. With Philadelphia seven games over .500 and Wheeler posting a sub-2.00 ERA this month, Reichel expects a comfortable multi-run Phillies win.

It’s The Final Round said Bryson Stott is his Day-6 hit-streak pick against Padres right-hander Matt Waldron. Waldron is making his season debut after getting shelled in Triple-A, where left-handed hitters pounded him for a .315 average and he allowed seven hits and five runs in just 2.2 innings his last start. Throughout the past two seasons he has surrendered a .260-.270 average to lefties. Stott bats lefty and has crushed Waldron in their limited MLB history, going 4-for-6 with three doubles (.667 AVG). Stott is hot overall, hitting .294 over the past week with knocks in seven of his last nine games. On the season he owns a 70% hit rate versus right-handed pitching and nearly 80% when those righties come to Citizens Bank Park. The tout recommended using Stott in a ‘to record a hit’ prop or tacking him onto hit parlays, noting plus-money value on a single and upside for another double.

B Wade said Zach Wheeler is an easy play for UNDER 5.5 hits allowed against San Diego. Wheeler has held opponents to five hits or fewer in 12 straight starts and has cleared this line in only two outings all season, both back in April. He stayed under in 73% of his games last year and has only sharpened his command as 2025 has progressed. Wade added that the Padres lineup has cooled off over the past week, making it unlikely they string together six knocks against a locked-in Wheeler. In Wade’s words, "there’s not a whole lot else to look at"—the data says keep riding Wheeler’s stinginess.

Kenny G labeled the Phillies a live underdog at +118 in Atlanta thanks to Ranger Suarez’s dominant stretch. Suarez is 6-2 with a 2.08 ERA and is fresh off 7⅔ innings of one-run ball in Houston; he has surrendered just six earned runs across his last five outings. Kenny acknowledged Philadelphia’s bats have gone missing (run totals of 1-13-1-0-0) but reminded viewers they still rank ninth in runs and fourth in batting average, with Bryce Harper’s return imminent. The Braves offense, meanwhile, sits 24th in scoring, hitting .243 and producing 6-0-0-3-7 runs their last five. Spencer Strider owns a 4.07 ERA and walked four in his last start, so Kenny expects the Phils to scratch out enough support. Given the starting-pitching edge and plus-money price, he called Philadelphia his potential “dog of the day.”

Reichel bet under 8.5 in Phillies-Braves, citing two starters trending up and two lineups stuck in neutral. Jesus Luzardo just tossed 6.2 shutout innings against the Mets and has allowed two runs or fewer in two of his last three outings, while Atlanta rookie Spencer Schwellenbach has yet to give up more than three earned in any of his three big-league starts. Offensively, Philadelphia just scored a single run across an entire three-game set in Houston and continues to battle multiple injuries, whereas Atlanta sits outside the top 20 in runs per game and is dealing with a modest four-mph wind blowing from right to left at Truist Park. Reichel projected a 4-3 type final and wanted the under before it potentially dipped to 8.

Martin grabbed Philadelphia +138, citing a pitching and form edge. Jesus Luzardo rediscovered his early-season groove last outing (6.2 shutout frames, 3 H vs Mets) after two blow-up starts. Spencer Schwellenbach has been decent for Atlanta, but the Braves have plated just three runs over their last two contests, while the Phillies are still 13 games above .500 despite their own slump. With the better overall record and a starter trending up, Martin believes the Phillies are mislabeled underdogs.

Cash Out Sports Picks grabbed the Phillies money line, trusting rookie Mick Abel’s strong 1.98 road ERA and 25% K-rate against a Braves lineup that has managed just a .238 average versus right-handers the past two weeks. Although Abel is coming off his worst big-league start, the tout noted his 12% swinging-strike rate and calm mound presence. Braves righty Bryce Elder surrendered a season-high 10 hits to Miami and now faces a deeper Philly lineup looking to rebound after a tough Houston set. Philadelphia is 6-4 in its last ten against Atlanta, and the home team has dominated this series, making Philly’s underdog price appealing. The play: Phillies ML.

The tout loves Nick Castellanos in all long-ball or total-base markets because he has absolutely destroyed Bryce Elder: three home runs in just six career at-bats (3-for-6, .500). Castellanos also carries an eight-for-10 game recent hit clip, backing the play with both history and current form.

Just A Bet Outside advised attacking rookie Mick Abel with home-run props and alternate overs in Friday’s Phillies-Braves tilt at Truist Park. Abel owns a slate-worst 2.7 HR/9 after surrendering seven long balls in only 23.1 big-league innings and carries a 1.44 WHIP plus a middling 20% strikeout rate—prime ingredients for loud contact. The park amplifies power, and the other starter, Bryce Elder, is coughing up 1.5 HR/9 himself, prompting the tout to predict a homer-fest. He specifically mentioned targeting Atlanta sluggers such as Matt Olson or Austin Riley for individual dinger bets while sprinkling on full-game total ladders.

Just A Bet Outside played the Phillies team-total UNDER 6.5 (alt line) and called it the de-juicer leg of his parlay. He emphasized that sportsbooks have the standard total at 3.5 (heavily juiced to the under) and the full-game over/under at just 7.5, reflecting the respect for Hunter Brown. Brown has limited opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 13 of 15 starts, a rate the host compared to prime Zack Greinke, and pairs that with a 30 % strikeout rate. With those numbers, he projects a 3-2 type game and argued Philadelphia can only reach seven if the Astros’ bullpen implodes late. Given Brown’s efficiency, ground-ball tilt, and the mediocre hard-hit rates of the current Phillies lineup, the tout was comfortable fading Philadelphia offense at anything north of 4.5 runs and loved the plus-money wiggle room at 6.5.

Calling it the ‘best pitching matchup of the day,’ Just A Bet Outside emphasized that Christopher Sanchez has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 12 of 15 starts while Hunter Brown has matched or bettered that in 13 of 15. With 25 of their combined 30 outings finishing under three earned runs, the tout explained why oddsmakers posted a very low total and why an Under or first-five Under bet deserves serious consideration.

Kenny G said he would isolate the starting–pitching edge and play the Phillies first-five moneyline rather than the full game. Philadelphia’s bullpen is a disaster—fifth worst in MLB with a 4.63 ERA and several blown leads—while Houston’s relief corps sits at an elite 3.28. Zack Wheeler carries ace-level numbers (2.95 ERA, 29% K-rate) into the matchup and faces a still-middling Astros lineup that ranks 16th in runs despite recent improvement. Houston counters with rookie left-hander Colton Gordon (2-1, 4.54 ERA) who just gave up seven hits and three runs, two earned, to the lowly A’s. Wheeler’s dominance plus Philadelphia’s 21-17 road record make the Phils worthy chalk early, but Kenny refuses to risk six ugly bullpen frames. With the full-game price around –160 and the first-five closer to –140, he advised laying the shorter number on Philly F5 and skipping the late-inning sweat entirely.

Labeling him ‘arguably the best pitcher in baseball,’ Razzle locked Zack Wheeler into his main builds. Wheeler’s 6.5 K-prop is heavily juiced to the over, and he has a 33% strikeout rate since the calendar flipped to June after rebounding from a single blow-up against Atlanta. Houston’s line-up has fallen to league average in wOBA against righties and owns just a 7.9% walk rate, a critical weakness against Wheeler’s elite command. The Phillies are –165 favorites, giving him strong win and quality-start equity to go along with the strikeouts.

B Wade said to hammer Zack Wheeler’s under 5.5 hits allowed on Wednesday. Wheeler has surrendered more than five hits only twice all season and not once since early April. Over his last ten starts he’s cashed this line every time. Wade noted the series opener was a 1-0 pitchers’ duel in which Ranger Suarez limited Houston to four hits across nearly eight innings, showing the Astros lineup can be stifled. He expects a similar script with Wheeler, who owns elite underlying numbers and gets the same ball-park conditions. Wade called the prop a “gift” that will likely bump down before first pitch, urging bettors to lock it in early.

Lonte Smith’s card is "under plus whoever is the dog," which means taking Philadelphia at +120 alongside the game UNDER 7. Smith trusts Ranger Suarez’s sparkling form—two runs or fewer in seven straight outings—and notes that Framber Valdez has held opponents to two or fewer in seven of his last eight, making runs at a premium. Because the market is pricing Houston as a –140 favorite despite near-identical pitcher metrics and team splits vs lefties, Smith believes the value sits squarely with the dog/under combo. He also cited Kyle Schwarber’s five homers in his last 15 starts and Jeremy Pena’s eight multi-hit games in 14 as the only bats that could spoil the ticket, but still projects a 3-2 type finish.

Eric Lindquist said Kyle Schwarber is worth a home-run sprinkle Tuesday even though he draws fellow left-hander Framber Valdez. Schwarber actually leads the National League in homers off southpaws this season and pairs a 19-degree average launch angle with Minute Maid’s inviting Crawford Boxes in right. Valdez is surrendering a 46.6 % hard-hit rate, so one well-barreled opposite-field fly could cash. Lindquist plans to fire if books hang +300 or better, calling it a spot to "get sneaky naughty" with Schwarber dingers.

Bettor Mark said he leans to the Phillies moneyline on Sunday even though he kept it off his official card. He expects Philadelphia to rebound from Saturday's 11-4 loss because left-hander Jesus Luzardo brings a 29% strikeout rate, 1.12 WHIP, and 3.18 xFIP into Citi Field, while the Mets own only a .297 wOBA against southpaws. Mark added that David Peterson is "the one Mets arm I refuse to trust," pointing to the lefty’s career 10% walk rate, 4.55 SIERA, and 41% hard-hit rate. With the Phillies sitting at plus money, he prefers the market option that pays extra if they lead after eight and never need to bat in the ninth, calling it the cleanest way to grab value without fully fading Peterson.

Cash Out Sports Picks took Philadelphia on the money-line, pointing to the Mets’ atrocious .457 OPS and 33 wRC+ against left-handed pitching over the last two weeks. Jesus Luzardo has struggled, but his track record versus New York is sturdier than David Peterson’s against the Phils. Philadelphia owns a 118 wRC+ versus southpaws during the same span, and their bullpen, while not elite, is in better form than the Mets’ relief unit that has collapsed during a recent seven-game skid.

Eric Lindquist plans to ladder Zack Wheeler strikeouts, starting with the standard over (projected to open around 6.5) and scaling up to 8-plus and even 10-plus. Although the Mets generally limit Ks, Lindquist reminded listeners that he cashed Spencer Strider 7+ earlier in the week and believes Wheeler’s form (13.4 % swinging-strike rate, 32 % CSW over his last five starts) is just as sharp. With two high-leverage relievers unavailable, manager Rob Thomson has been more willing to let Wheeler push 100 pitches, increasing the ceiling. Lindquist projects 8–10 strikeouts and will fire multiple alternate lines once books post numbers.

Razzle labeled Zack Wheeler the slate’s safest stud: four 30-plus DK scores in his last seven and a 2.04 ERA at Citizens Bank. He fanned eight Mets in their first meeting and now draws them again while New York’s lineup is missing two lefty bats. Books opened his K-prop at 6.5 with juice to the over, reinforcing an elite strikeout floor. Razzle plans heavy Wheeler exposure in both cash and GPP builds.

Reichel wants the Phillies, even considering the run line, behind Zack Wheeler’s 7-2 record and 2.76 ERA (24–13 team mark at home). He pointed out the Mets have cratered—losers of five straight and one game under .500 on the road despite being 16 over at Citi Field. Wheeler has allowed more than three runs only once in his last eight starts and owns sharper numbers in South Philly. With New York’s lineup scuffling (shut-out losses already this series) and the starter likely to be middling Tylor Megill (3.95 ERA, 1.36 WHIP), Reichel says any reasonable ML or –1.5 run-line price is playable.

Until the Mets show signs of life, he is fading them, especially with Philadelphia sending its best arm to the bump. The Phillies offense is humming and Citizens Bank Park has been unkind to New York this year. Given the vast starting-pitching edge and current form, he labeled the Phils a "perfect spot" Moneyline wager.

Kenny G labeled the Phillies moneyline at –180 his potential 'lock of the day.' He trusts Christopher Sanchez, who owns a 2.89 ERA in June and has completed at least six innings in three of his last four starts, to stifle a Marlins offense that ranks 23rd in runs and 19th in slugging for the season and has produced only two, eight, two, three, four and 11 runs in its past six games. Miami’s 4.53 bullpen ERA sits neck-and-neck with Philadelphia’s relief mark, but Kenny noted the Phillies pen grades noticeably better in underlying metrics and has held opponents to a .218 average over the last two weeks. He expects limited resistance from Edward Cabrera—solid but not dominant in his last three turns—and highlighted that Miami is just 15-21 at home while Philadelphia is 19-17 on the road and 21-14-1 to the under away, suggesting a low-scoring Phillies win. If you want a secondary angle, Kenny said the full-game Over 7.5 is playable because both bullpens can implode late, but he made it clear the primary wager is Phillies ML at anything –190 or better.

Lindquist wants to buy back on Kyle Schwarber’s home-run prop at roughly +320 in Miami after Wednesday’s golden-sombrero disaster. Edward Cabrera brings a live arm (25% K-rate) but combines it with a 10% walk rate and 44.3% hard-hit percentage, giving Schwarber plenty of chances to see mistake fastballs. The Marlins’ bullpen piles on free passes as well, ranking bottom-five in BB% since June 1. Although loanDepot Park suppresses power, Schwarber’s 17.6° launch angle and 93 mph average exit velocity travel anywhere, and Lindquist believes the market over-adjusted to the stadium factor after Tuesday’s flop.

For the Phillies-Marlins matchup, Drew Martin recommends Philadelphia −1.5 with Cristopher Sanchez on the mound. Sanchez has surrendered two or fewer earned runs in four straight outings and threw a nine-inning, three-hit shutout the last time he faced Miami. Martin expects the Phillies’ potent lineup to pressure Edward Cabrera early and force a shaky Marlins bullpen into extended duty. Given Philadelphia’s offensive ceiling, Martin feels comfortable laying the run line price instead of the heavy money line.